Whitbread (WTB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £4.39B
• Dividend Yield: 3.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 765.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 3.75%
• EPS Growth: -22.77%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 36,700
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Travel Lodging
• EPS (TTM): 1.31
• Shares Outstanding: 176,492,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 809,262
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 765,634
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.54
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 5.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: 3,442.86p
• Price Target Upside: 38.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

Whitbread's stock reflects a balance of improving financial performance and strategic corporate actions, although technical indicators suggest caution. The company's solid cash flow and reasonable valuation offer potential, while ongoing debt management and leadership stability are favorable for future growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Q3 revenues were slightly ahead of expectations.

Growth Opportunities

Potential for expansion in Germany offers growth opportunities.

Market Position

Whitbread should outperform Travelodge given it underindexes to London, and Travelodge has been impacted by its refurb programme.

Negative Factors

Consumer Confidence

Weak consumer and corporate confidence is impacting demand.

Earnings Risk

Whitbread consensus RevPAR expectations for +1% in FY26 look ambitious, as every 1% on RevPAR impacts PBT by 3%, indicating risk.

RevPAR Outlook

RevPAR and NUG outlook continues to be uncertain in the short term.

Whitbread Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Whitbread PLC is a leading British hospitality company, primarily operating in the hotel and restaurant sectors. The company is best known for its Premier Inn brand, which is the largest hotel chain in the UK, offering affordable and comfortable accommodation. Additionally, Whitbread manages a variety of restaurant brands, including Beefeater, Brewers Fayre, and Table Table, which provide casual dining experiences across the UK.

How the Company Makes Money

Whitbread PLC generates revenue primarily through its hotel and restaurant operations. The Premier Inn hotel brand is the main revenue driver, earning money by providing lodging services across its extensive network of hotels in the UK and internationally. Revenue is generated based on room occupancy rates, with a dynamic pricing strategy that adjusts rates based on demand and booking timeframes. In addition to accommodation, Whitbread's restaurant brands contribute significantly to its income. These establishments offer a range of dining options and earn money through food and beverage sales. Whitbread leverages its broad network of locations to maximize customer reach and convenience. Key partnerships with online travel agencies and corporate clients further enhance Whitbread's revenue streams by increasing bookings and corporate travel contracts. The company's earnings are supported by a strong brand reputation, strategic site locations, and its commitment to providing value for money.

Whitbread Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Whitbread's financial health is improving with strong revenue growth and solid cash flow generation, indicating resilience in the hotel and leisure industry. Despite moderate leverage, the company maintains profitability and stable equity. Continued focus on managing debt and improving margins will be essential for sustaining this growth trajectory.

Income Statement

Whitbread shows a strong recovery in revenue with a 12.75% growth rate from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 39.38% and the net profit margin at 10.55%, indicating healthy profitability. However, the margins have yet to reach pre-pandemic levels as seen in 2019. EBIT margin is at 19.07%, and EBITDA margin is 33.79%, reflecting robust operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.45 indicates moderate leverage, which could pose some risk if not managed carefully. The return on equity is 8.87%, suggesting a decent return to shareholders. The equity ratio is at 36.97%, showing a stable equity base but highlighting significant liabilities.

Cash Flow

Whitbread demonstrates solid cash flow management with a 33.39% growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.81 and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.18 reflect strong cash generation relative to income, supporting liquidity and potential reinvestment.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.95B	2.96B	2.63B	1.70B	588.90M	2.06B
	Gross Profit
1.54B	1.17B	1.27B	551.00M	-365.00M	972.30M
	EBIT
525.10M	564.80M	532.20M	34.40M	-622.60M	498.30M
	EBITDA
896.80M	1.00B	883.70M	554.40M	-547.80M	695.40M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
238.80M	312.10M	278.80M	42.50M	-906.50M	217.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.40B	696.70M	1.16B	1.13B	1.26B	502.60M
	Total Assets
10.03B	9.52B	9.94B	9.57B	8.80B	7.83B
	Total Debt
3.29B	5.09B	4.95B	4.69B	4.53B	3.45B
	Net Debt
-111.70M	4.40B	3.79B	3.56B	3.28B	2.94B
	Total Liabilities
4.38B	6.00B	5.83B	5.45B	4.96B	4.08B
	Stockholders Equity
5.65B	3.52B	4.11B	4.12B	3.83B	3.75B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
300.80M	369.40M	276.90M	289.20M	-619.30M	-159.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
771.70M	877.90M	795.70M	510.70M	-391.10M	234.20M
	Investing Cash Flow
-394.10M	-443.90M	-486.00M	-204.60M	-228.00M	-575.80M
	Financing Cash Flow
-813.00M	-901.00M	-279.20M	-429.10M	1.37B	-2.55B

Whitbread Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2486.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:WTB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2486 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2560.50, below the 50-day MA of 2683.52, and below the 200-day MA of 2885.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -38.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:WTB.

Whitbread Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTB	70 Outperform	£4.39B	19.43	6.45%	3.97%	3.75%	-22.77%
MAB	66 Neutral	£1.30B	8.72	6.35%	―	4.27%	―
JDW	63 Neutral	£640.40M	10.77	16.38%	2.14%	3.70%	57.10%
IHG	61 Neutral	£13.29B	27.95	-27.16%	1.47%	3.55%	-14.32%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$12.27B	11.11	-0.54%	3.71%	1.45%	-20.42%

Whitbread Corporate Events

Whitbread PLC Updates on Voting Rights and Capital Structure

Whitbread PLC has announced that as of 28 February 2025, it has 176,492,228 voting rights in issue, following the holding of 12,454,718 shares in Treasury out of a total of 188,946,946 ordinary shares. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency rules, impacting their stake and interest calculations within the company.

Whitbread Strengthens Leadership with Share Awards to CTO

Whitbread PLC has announced a transaction involving its Chief Technology Officer, Mark Smith, who has been granted awards over 6,245 shares under the company’s restricted share plan and 14,272 shares under the recruitment and retention scheme. This move, valued at £588,509.63, is part of Whitbread’s efforts to retain key personnel and enhance its leadership stability, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive positioning in the hospitality market.

Whitbread Director’s Share Transaction Reflects Routine Financial Activity

Whitbread PLC announced a transaction involving Kal Atwal, an Independent Non-Executive Director, who purchased and simultaneously sold 1,130 ordinary shares, resulting in no change in overall holding. This transaction, conducted in London, reflects routine financial activities by a company executive and may have implications for investor perceptions and market confidence in the company’s governance.

Whitbread PLC Announces Successful Pricing of £400 Million Bond Issue

Whitbread Group PLC has successfully priced £400 million in 5.50% Guaranteed Notes due in 2032. The funds from this bond issue will be used for general corporate purposes, including refinancing existing debt. The unsecured notes, expected to be rated BBB by Fitch Ratings, will be listed on the London Stock Exchange, reflecting the company’s stable credit position. This move is expected to support Whitbread’s financial strategy and provide flexibility in managing debt obligations.

Whitbread PLC Director Exercises Share Option

Whitbread PLC announced a transaction involving Mark Anderson, the Managing Director of Property and International, who exercised an option over 144 ordinary shares under the company’s savings-related share option scheme. This transaction, valued at £3,580.42, was conducted in London, UK, and reflects managerial investment activity within the company, potentially signaling confidence in its financial stability and growth prospects.

Whitbread CFO Appointed to 3i Group Board

Whitbread PLC’s Chief Financial Officer, Hemant Patel, has been appointed as a non-executive director of 3i Group plc, effective February 3, 2025. This move could potentially enhance Whitbread’s strategic influence and networking within the industry, possibly benefiting its operations or positioning.

Whitbread PLC Announces Voting Rights Update for Shareholders

Whitbread PLC has announced that as of January 31, 2025, the company had 188,878,730 ordinary shares issued, with 12,454,718 held in Treasury, resulting in 176,424,012 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their reporting obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency rules, reflecting Whitbread’s commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency in its corporate governance.

Whitbread PLC Reports Strategic Gains and Strong German Growth

Whitbread PLC has reported strategic progress with stable performance in the UK and strong momentum in Germany. The company’s Five-Year Plan aims to deliver a profit increase of at least £300 million by FY30 and return over £2 billion to shareholders. Despite a 2% drop in total group sales due to reduced UK food and beverage sales, Premier Inn UK maintained strong accommodation sales and outperformed the midscale and economy sector. In Germany, accommodation sales rose by 23% in local currency, marking a significant milestone as the company aims for profitability in the country. The successful completion of a £100 million share buy-back reflects Whitbread’s commitment to shareholder value. The company remains optimistic about its market positioning, despite limited forward visibility, by leveraging its brand strength and commercial initiatives.

BlackRock Adjusts Stake in Whitbread PLC

Whitbread PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in the voting rights held by BlackRock, Inc., an American global investment management corporation. BlackRock’s voting rights in Whitbread have decreased from 6.76% to 6.22%, indicating a disposal of voting rights, which may impact shareholder dynamics and influence within the company.

Whitbread PLC Announces Voting Rights Update for 2025

Whitbread PLC has announced the total number of voting rights it holds as of January 1, 2025, which amounts to 176,421,633, after accounting for shares held in Treasury. This update is crucial for shareholders who might need to adjust their interest notifications according to the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency rules.