NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited (NESF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): N/A
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: UK
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 575,200,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• PEG Ratio: -1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 373.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £65.00
• Price Target Upside: 23.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £138.00M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: 54.00 p ▲(2.86% Upside)
• Action: N/A Date: 01/19/26
• Date: Action: N/A 01/19/26

The score is primarily held back by sharply deteriorating operating results (collapsing revenue and two years of net losses) and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These negatives are partly offset by strong, improving operating cash flow, a debt-free balance sheet in 2025, and a very high dividend yield, but not enough to outweigh the earnings and trend weakness.

Positive Factors

Debt eliminated (2025)

Elimination of total debt materially lowers refinancing and interest-rate risk, increasing balance sheet flexibility. Over the next 2–6 months this reduces default and covenant pressure, improves capacity to fund operations or dividends from internal cash, and supports resilience.

Strong operating cash generation

Consistent, improving operating cash flow (64.2M in 2025) provides durable funding for dividends, O&M and limited capex even when accounting profits are negative. Reliable cash generation supports the business model and reduces near-term liquidity risk.

Long-term contracted solar cashflows

Owning solar PV with PPAs, subsidies and index-linked support provides structurally predictable revenue streams. Contracted and incentive-linked cashflows reduce exposure to spot wholesale volatility and underpin a stable income profile for shareholders over months to years.

Negative Factors

Severe revenue collapse

A multi-year, dramatic drop in revenue signals structural scaling back, asset disposals, contract expiries or market disconnects. Loss of scale reduces operating leverage, jeopardizes fixed cost coverage, and materially weakens the company’s long-term earnings base and strategic optionality.

Consecutive net losses

Accounting losses across two years erode retained earnings and may indicate impairments or unfavorable contract economics. Persistent negative profitability constrains reinvestment, raises the probability of further write-downs, and undermines sustainable dividend support if cash flows deteriorate.

Shrinking asset base and equity

Declining assets and stepped-down equity suggest disposals, impairments or distributions exceeding profits. Reduced asset scale limits generation capacity and collateral for financing, which can hamper growth, operational redundancy and the ability to pursue accretive investments over the medium term.

NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited specializes in investments in operational solar photovoltaic (PV) assets. The fund intends primarily to acquire operating assets, but may invest in assets that are under development, that is, at the stage of origination, project planning or construction. Within this sector it intends to acquire assets that are primarily ground-based and utility-scale and which are on sites that may be agricultural, industrial, and/or commercial. It invests in solar power plants. The fund may also acquire selected building-integrated installations. It invests in electric power by solar energy and independent power producers and energy traders. It seeks to invest in the United Kingdom. It will typically seek to acquire sole ownership, but may enter into joint ventures or acquire majority interests. Where an interest of less than 100 percent in a particular asset is acquired, the fund intends to secure controlling shareholder rights through shareholders' agreements or other legal arrangements. The fund will not invest more than 30 percent of the gross asset value in any one project. In case of under developed assets it will not invest more than 10 per cent of the gross asset value. It may invest by way of equity or a mix of equity and shareholder loans.

How the Company Makes Money

NESF makes money primarily from the electricity and contracted revenues generated by the solar PV assets it owns (directly or through project companies). Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of electricity: NESF earns revenue by generating electricity from its solar farms and selling it into the power market, either at market prices or via contracted arrangements where applicable. (2) Subsidy and incentive-linked income: For eligible UK assets, a portion of revenues can come from government-backed support mechanisms for renewable generation (e.g., legacy renewable incentive schemes tied to generation), which can provide more predictable, inflation-linked or index-linked cashflows depending on the specific contract or regime. (3) Power purchase and hedging arrangements: NESF may enter into power purchase agreements (PPAs) and/or hedging structures to reduce exposure to wholesale power price volatility; these arrangements can shape realized power prices and cashflow stability rather than create a separate product line. (4) Ancillary/other project-level income and value optimization: Depending on the asset, additional cashflows may arise from project-level arrangements related to grid, land, or operational optimization; if specific amounts or structures are not publicly detailed for a given period, null. NESF’s earnings are affected by generation performance (irradiance/weather and asset availability), operating costs (operations and maintenance, land leases, insurance), financing costs at the project level (where applicable), and the regulatory environment for renewable incentives. The company typically returns value to shareholders through dividends funded by net cash generated from the portfolio after expenses and debt service.

NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed: revenue collapsed from 60.2M (2023) to 3.6M (2024) and 1.1M (2025) with two consecutive years of net losses, which heavily pressures the score. Offsetting this, operating cash flow remained positive and improved to 64.2M in 2025, and debt fell to 0 in 2025, lowering financial risk. Shrinking assets and equity further temper the outlook.

Income Statement

Results have deteriorated sharply: revenue fell from 138.7M (2022) to 60.2M (2023), then to 3.6M (2024) and 1.1M (2025). Profitability also flipped from strong positive net income in 2021–2023 to losses in 2024–2025, indicating weak earnings stability. A positive is that the company previously demonstrated the ability to generate meaningful profits (2021–2023), but the last two years dominate the current view.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially with total debt moving from ~198M (2021–2024) to 0 in 2025, reducing financial risk. However, the asset base has been shrinking (from ~878M in 2022 to ~749M in 2025) and equity has stepped down (from ~674M in 2023 to ~547M in 2025), which can signal valuation/asset pressure or distributions exceeding retained results. Overall balance sheet risk looks lower on debt, but net worth and asset trend are weaker.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow has been consistently positive from 2021–2025 and improved to 64.2M in 2025 versus 51.5M in 2024, despite reported net losses. Free cash flow matches operating cash flow each year provided, suggesting limited capital drag in the figures shown. The key weakness is volatility historically (notably negative cash flow in 2020), and the disconnect between positive cash flow and recent accounting losses warrants monitoring for sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	28.54M	1.06M	3.58M	60.20M	138.68M	51.42M
Gross Profit	26.55M	1.06M	3.58M	54.37M	133.63M	46.26M
EBITDA	-7.11M	-10.72M	0.00	57.95M	137.14M	49.89M
Net Income	-5.60M	-10.86M	-8.36M	48.32M	127.55M	40.22M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	712.40M	748.62M	819.61M	875.23M	878.34M	802.66M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.77M	3.22M	8.86M	14.35M	19.61M	10.81M
Total Debt	198.54M	0.00	198.34M	198.20M	198.06M	197.92M
Total Liabilities	201.45M	201.25M	200.99M	2.34M	209.84M	23.95M
Stockholders Equity	510.95M	547.37M	618.62M	674.42M	668.50M	580.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	60.67M	64.24M	51.46M	46.44M	58.14M	33.24M
Operating Cash Flow	60.67M	64.24M	51.46M	46.44M	58.14M	33.24M
Investing Cash Flow	9.35M	0.00	0.00	-26.10M	6.86M	-19.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.90M	-69.89M	-56.94M	-51.90M	-49.34M	-47.56M

NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Corporate Events

NextEnergy Solar Fund completes £119m capital recycling drive with UK solar sale

NextEnergy Solar Fund has completed its Capital Recycling Programme with the £46.2m sale of a 100MW operational UK solar portfolio, comprising the Grange and South Lowfield subsidy-free assets, to Atrato Onsite Energy. This final phase delivered a 1.1x multiple on invested capital and will be used to reduce drawings under the company’s revolving credit facilities, bolstering its balance sheet.

Across four phases, the programme generated about £119m from the disposal of five UK solar assets totaling 245MW, contributing an estimated 2.44p uplift in net asset value per ordinary share despite a challenging M&A backdrop. Management positions the completed overhaul as evidence of disciplined capital stewardship and a shift toward reinforcing long-term portfolio resilience, with further strategic updates due at an investor seminar in London this week.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NESF) stock is a Hold with a £55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited stock, see the GB:NESF Stock Forecast page.

NextEnergy Solar Fund Holds Dividend Line as Power Prices Dent NAV

NextEnergy Solar Fund reported a decline in unaudited Q3 net asset value, with NAV per ordinary share falling to 84.9p, largely due to lower third‑party power price forecasts and weaker winter irradiation that pushed UK generation 12.9% below budget. Including the forthcoming impact of the UK government’s shift in ROC and FiT inflation indexation from RPI to CPI, year‑end NAV would have been 82.9p, but the board reaffirmed its full‑year dividend target of 8.43p per share, with forecast cover of 1.1x–1.3x, underscoring its commitment to income despite market headwinds.

The fund’s capital recycling programme and asset disposals have so far raised £72.5m and added a NAV uplift, supporting efforts to manage gearing, which sits just below the 50% debt‑to‑GAV limit amid pressure from a depressed share price that has pushed the EV gearing ratio above 50%. Management plans to reduce leverage through further asset sales and RCF paydown, while a strategic review—due to be outlined to investors in March—aims to reinforce long‑term value, supported by the fund’s Article 9 sustainability status and continued focus on biodiversity and supply chain ESG standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NESF) stock is a Hold with a £55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited stock, see the GB:NESF Stock Forecast page.

NextEnergy Solar Fund Maintains Dividend Trajectory With Third Interim Payout

NextEnergy Solar Fund has declared a third interim dividend of 2.11p per ordinary share for the quarter ended 31 December 2025, maintaining its trajectory toward a full-year dividend target of 8.43p for the financial year ending 31 March 2026. The distribution, scheduled for payment on 31 March 2026 to shareholders on the register as of 13 February, underscores the fund’s continued focus on stable, inflation-linked income generation for investors and highlights its commitment to delivering consistent yields from its solar and energy storage portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NESF) stock is a Buy with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited stock, see the GB:NESF Stock Forecast page.

NextEnergy Solar Fund Warns of NAV Hit from UK Shift to CPI Indexation

NextEnergy Solar Fund has flagged a modest negative impact from the UK government’s decision to switch indexation of Renewable Obligation Certificates and Feed‑in Tariffs from RPI to CPI from April 2026, estimating a reduction of around 2p per ordinary share, or about 2% of net asset value as at 30 September 2025. While the company welcomed officials’ engagement and noted that the chosen option is less disruptive than alternatives, its management warned the policy change risks undermining investor confidence in UK infrastructure at a time when significant private capital is needed to support the energy transition, with a fuller assessment due alongside its Q3 NAV and operating update in February.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:NESF) stock is a Buy with a £65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited stock, see the GB:NESF Stock Forecast page.