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Morgan Sindall Group PLC (GB:MGNS)
LSE:MGNS

Morgan Sindall (MGNS) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:MGNS

Morgan Sindall

(LSE:MGNS)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
4,939.00 p
â–²(5.76% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (consistent revenue growth, improved earnings, and manageable leverage), supported by a constructive longer-term technical trend. Valuation is reasonable with a moderate dividend, but thin margins and cash-flow volatility temper the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth
Multi-year top-line expansion through 2024–2025 demonstrates recurring contract wins and stronger project throughput. Consistent revenue growth supports order-book stability, enhances forecasting reliability over the next 2–6 months and underpins reinvestment in operations and backlog conversion.
Manageable leverage and strong ROE
Low relative leverage combined with elevated ROE indicates efficient capital deployment and financial flexibility. This balance sheet strength supports public-sector bidding and development activity, reducing refinancing risk and enabling selective growth investments over the medium term.
Diversified service mix with recurring frameworks
A multi-division model—especially property services with long-term frameworks—adds recurring revenue that cushions project cyclicality. Regeneration and development activity offer value-accretion upside, creating complementary revenue streams and improving cash generation durability over months.
Negative Factors
Structurally thin margins
Narrow, sector-typical margins leave limited buffer for cost inflation, subcontractor issues, or adverse project outcomes. Over a 2–6 month horizon, thin margins heighten earnings sensitivity to project mix and execution risk, constraining sustainable profitability improvements.
Volatile cash-flow conversion
Irregular free cash flow complicates funding of capex, dividends and working capital for projects. In contracting businesses, this variability raises forecasting risk and can force short-term financing or tighter supplier terms, undermining operational flexibility over the medium term.
Uptick in absolute debt in 2025
Although leverage remains low, rising absolute debt could increase interest expense and reduce optionality if the trend continues. If cash flows soften, higher nominal debt can stress liquidity and constrain bidding or development commitments across the next several months.

Morgan Sindall (MGNS) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Morgan Sindall Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMorgan Sindall Group plc operates as a construction and regeneration company in the United Kingdom. It operates through five segments: Construction & Infrastructure, Fit Out, Property Services, Partnership Housing, and Urban Regeneration divisions. The Construction & Infrastructure segment provides infrastructure services to highways, rail, energy, water, and nuclear markets; and construction services in education, healthcare, commercial, defense, industrial, leisure, and retail markets. The Fit Out segment specializes in fit out and refurbishment projects in commercial, central, and local government offices, as well as education markets. This segment also provides office interior design and build services. The Property Services segment offers responsive repairs and planned maintenance services for social housing and the public sector. The Partnership Housing segment engages in mixed-tenure development; building and developing homes for open market; sale and affordable rent; design and build house contracting; and planned maintenance and refurbishment activities. The Urban Regeneration segment works with landowners and public sector partners to transform the urban landscape through the development of multi-phase sites and mixed-use regeneration, including residential, commercial, retail, and leisure facilities. The company was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyMorgan Sindall makes money by delivering contracted construction and related services and by generating returns from development and regeneration activity. Its revenue model is primarily project- and service-contract driven: (1) Construction and infrastructure: it earns revenue from delivering building and civil engineering projects under contracts (typically priced on a fixed-price or target-cost basis depending on the project), with profit driven by contract margins, delivery performance, and cost control; (2) Fit out: it earns fees and margins from interior fit-out and refurbishment projects for commercial and public-sector buildings, where profitability depends on project management, procurement, and utilization; (3) Property services: it earns revenue from longer-term framework and term contracts for housing and public building maintenance, repairs, planned refurbishments, and compliance works—often with local authorities, housing associations, and other public bodies—providing a recurring element relative to one-off projects; (4) Urban regeneration and development: it can earn development profits from regenerating sites and undertaking mixed-use or residential-led development, monetizing value uplift through sales, disposals, or profit recognition as projects complete, and may also earn development management fees where applicable. Key factors influencing earnings include the mix of public vs. private sector work, the scale and duration of secured order books/frameworks, project risk management (cost inflation, subcontractor performance, and schedule), and partnership/regeneration arrangements with public-sector bodies and other stakeholders. null

Morgan Sindall Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year revenue growth and improved profitability into 2024–2025 support the score. Balance sheet leverage remains manageable with strong ROE, but thin industry margins, slightly higher absolute debt in 2025, and volatile cash-flow conversion limit upside.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has grown consistently from 2020–2025, with 2025 revenue up ~6.7% and strong multi-year momentum after the 2020 dip. Profitability has also improved materially versus 2022: EBIT and net income rose meaningfully into 2024–2025, indicating better operating execution. That said, margins are structurally thin (as typical for construction) and 2024 profitability levels still leave limited cushion if project mix or costs deteriorate.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Leverage looks manageable with low debt relative to equity in recent years (debt-to-equity ~0.18 in 2024, improving from higher levels earlier), and equity has steadily expanded alongside asset growth. Returns on equity have been strong (about ~20% in 2023–2024), suggesting efficient capital use. The main watchout is the uptick in absolute debt in 2025 versus 2024, which is not yet alarming but worth monitoring if it continues.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash generation is generally solid: free cash flow covered net income well in 2023–2024 (roughly 0.86–0.93x), and 2025 free cash flow increased sharply (+34%). However, cash flow has been volatile year-to-year (notably weaker in 2022 and a decline in free cash flow in 2024 versus 2023), which is common in contracting businesses but still increases forecasting risk.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.02B4.55B4.12B3.61B3.21B
Gross Profit606.10M529.90M446.70M370.90M382.80M
EBITDA248.50M209.30M162.90M111.00M147.00M
Net Income174.90M131.70M117.70M60.90M97.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.45B2.13B2.03B1.79B1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments590.50M544.20M541.30M431.70M468.60M
Total Debt181.70M118.50M144.40M134.00M163.40M
Total Liabilities1.70B1.48B1.46B1.30B1.23B
Stockholders Equity748.80M647.20M568.10M496.20M474.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow189.90M110.60M181.40M42.90M102.50M
Operating Cash Flow205.90M128.80M196.00M54.70M110.50M
Investing Cash Flow-44.80M4.70M-11.00M8.30M-4.50M
Financing Cash Flow-122.30M-101.80M-78.90M-66.80M-80.80M

Morgan Sindall Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4670.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4946.90
Negative
100DMA
4786.40
Negative
200DMA
4562.20
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-160.77
Positive
RSI
31.75
Neutral
STOCH
11.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MGNS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4670 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5029.50, below the 50-day MA of 4946.90, and above the 200-day MA of 4562.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -160.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MGNS.

Morgan Sindall Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
£1.47B8.2324.69%3.08%-1.17%12.31%
78
Outperform
£1.77B7.7017.29%2.34%3.88%5.10%
76
Outperform
£3.39B6.6616.34%1.80%9.97%-15.46%
73
Outperform
£2.08B12.5024.53%2.49%6.93%21.50%
72
Outperform
£536.95M7.1027.48%3.65%5.78%-6.80%
71
Outperform
£905.92M9.8111.69%3.19%4.40%31.59%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:MGNS
Morgan Sindall
4,430.00
1,584.98
55.71%
GB:BBY
Balfour Beatty
702.00
278.70
65.84%
GB:GFRD
Galliford Try
551.00
212.66
62.85%
GB:HILS
Hill & Smith Holdings
2,245.00
554.70
32.82%
GB:KLR
Keller Group plc
2,135.00
825.00
62.98%
GB:KIE
Kier Group plc
216.00
98.36
83.62%

Morgan Sindall Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall grants nil‑cost share options to top executives under bonus plan
Neutral
Mar 9, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has awarded nil-cost share options to chief executive John Morgan and chief financial officer Kelly Gangotra under its Deferred Bonus Plan, linked to their annual bonuses for the year ended 31 December 2025. The grants, covering 6,807 options for Morgan and 5,429 for Gangotra, align leadership incentives with shareholder interests by tying a portion of executive pay to future share performance and dividend-linked returns.

The options, exercisable from 9 March 2020 and based on a reference share price of £46.28, include rights to dividend equivalents that can be settled in cash or shares. While primarily a routine remuneration and governance disclosure under market abuse regulations, the award structure underscores the group’s continued use of equity-based compensation to retain senior management and support long-term value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Morgan Sindall grants long-term share awards to top executives
Positive
Mar 9, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has granted conditional awards of ordinary shares to chief executive John Morgan and chief financial officer Kelly Gangotra under its 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan. The awards, over 34,356 shares for Morgan and 22,815 shares for Gangotra, reflect the group’s continued use of equity-based pay to align executive incentives with long-term shareholder value.

The conditional share awards, made on 9 March 2026, will vest on 9 March 2029 subject to performance criteria and will then be subject to a further two-year holding period in line with the board’s remuneration policy. The structure, including dividend equivalents payable in cash or shares, underlines a focus on performance-linked, long-horizon rewards that may support retention of senior leadership and signal confidence in the group’s future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall Discloses CEO Nil-Cost Option Vesting and Dividend Share Award
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has disclosed a transaction by its chief executive, John Morgan, in line with market abuse regulations governing dealings by senior managers. The filing relates to the vesting of nil-cost share options that were originally granted in March 2023 under the company’s Deferred Bonus Plan adopted in 2017.

Upon vesting on 3 March 2026, the options carried a right to receive an amount linked to dividends paid over the deferral period, and this dividend equivalent has been settled in additional ordinary shares. The award, including the dividend equivalent of 856 new shares, remains exercisable until the tenth anniversary of the original grant date and was executed outside a trading venue, underscoring routine remuneration rather than an open-market share purchase.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5897.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall CEO Retains Shares After LTIP Vesting and Tax Sale
Neutral
Mar 4, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has disclosed a share transaction involving its chief executive, John Morgan, under market abuse regulations. The move relates to the vesting of conditional share awards granted under the company’s 2014 Long Term Incentive Plan and reflects ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align leadership incentives with shareholder interests.

Following the vesting, Morgan acquired 53,205 ordinary shares at nil cost, including dividend equivalent shares, and sold 23,943 shares at £46.25 each to meet PAYE tax obligations. The remaining 29,262 shares have been retained in the company’s nominee account for a mandatory two-year holding period, underscoring governance controls over executive share ownership and longer-term value alignment.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5897.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Morgan Sindall Seeks Admission of New Shares for Employee Savings Plan
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission to trading of 33,000 new ordinary shares of 5p each, which may be issued in future under the Morgan Sindall Sharesave Plan (2018). The shares, expected to be admitted on 5 March 2026, will rank pari passu with existing ordinary shares, supporting the company’s employee savings and share ownership arrangements without altering existing shareholder rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5897.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall Confirms Total Voting Rights at Just Over 48 Million Shares
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group plc has confirmed that, as of 28 February 2026, its issued share capital comprises 48,026,802 ordinary shares of 5p each, all carrying voting rights and with no shares held in treasury. This establishes the total number of voting rights in the company at 48,026,802, a figure that shareholders and other market participants must use as the denominator when assessing and reporting any notifiable holdings under the FCA’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5897.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall Chair Takes New Non-Executive Role at Marsh & McLennan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group has announced a change in its board-related disclosures, highlighting a new external appointment for its Non-Executive Chair, Peter Harrison. The update reflects the group’s ongoing obligation to report directors’ roles in other listed companies under UK listing rules.

Harrison has been appointed a Non-Executive Director of Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., effective 25 February 2026. The additional blue-chip board position may broaden his external perspective and network, potentially benefiting Morgan Sindall’s governance and strategic oversight without altering its existing executive structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Morgan Sindall posts record 2025 profits and raises growth targets
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group reported another record year in 2025, with revenue up 10% to £5.0bn and adjusted profit before tax rising 35% to £232.6m, underpinned by margin expansion and a robust net cash position of £531m. The group lifted its full-year dividend by 20% and enters 2026 with a record £19.1bn of secured and preferred bidder work, prompting higher medium-term targets for its Infrastructure and Mixed Use Partnerships divisions despite housing market headwinds.

Performance was broad-based, led by standout growth in the Fit Out and Construction businesses, resilient gains in Partnership Housing, and a return to profit in Property Services after remediation, while Mixed Use Partnerships absorbed planned investment costs ahead of 2026 project starts. The group also maintained top-tier ESG ratings, reinforcing its positioning as a financially strong, sustainability-focused contractor, and signaling continued confidence in long-term demand across its chosen markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Morgan Sindall Lifts 2026 Outlook on Record Order Book and Surging Fit-Out Profits
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group reported that all divisions performed well in 2025 and the company expects full-year results to be in line with current market expectations. The group has entered 2026 with a record secured order book and preferred bidder work of £19.1 billion, up 17% year-on-year, reflecting strong strategic progress across its operating sectors.

Management highlighted a marked increase in confidence around converting preferred bidder work and securing new tenders in its Fit Out division, boosting revenue visibility. Profits from Fit Out in 2026 are now expected to be significantly ahead of prior expectations and well above the division’s medium-term target range, lifting the overall group outlook for 2026 above earlier forecasts, while other divisions are set to perform in line with previous guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall Confirms Total Voting Rights at 48 Million Shares
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group plc has reported that, as of 31 January 2026, its issued share capital stands at 48,023,525 ordinary shares of 5p each, all carrying voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure sets the official total of voting rights in the company at 48,023,525, providing shareholders and other interested parties with the denominator needed to assess and report any notifiable holdings or changes under the UK Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Morgan Sindall Sets Date for 2025 Full-Year Results Announcement
Neutral
Jan 19, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group plc has announced that it will publish its full-year results for the 12 months to 31 December 2025 on Wednesday 25 February 2026, with the figures to be released via the London Stock Exchange’s Regulatory News Service and the investor relations section of its website. The company will also host an analyst presentation at Bank of America’s London offices on the morning of the announcement, underlining its engagement with the investment community ahead of a key update on trading and financial performance that will be closely watched by market participants and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Morgan Sindall Confirms Total Voting Rights at Year-End
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Morgan Sindall Group plc has confirmed that, as of 31 December 2025, its issued share capital comprises 48,022,962 ordinary shares of 5p each, all carrying voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure sets the official total number of voting rights in the company at 48,022,962, providing the reference denominator for shareholders and other obligated parties to assess and report any notifiable interests or changes in their holdings under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure and Transparency Rules, thereby supporting regulatory compliance and market transparency around the company’s ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5444.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing Changes
Morgan Sindall Announces Additional Listing of Shares
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025

Morgan Sindall Group plc has announced a block listing application for 36,000 Ordinary Shares to be added to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and traded on the London Stock Exchange. These shares, expected to be admitted on 18 December 2025, will fulfill options granted under the Morgan Sindall Sharesave Plan (2018), aligning with the company’s strategy to incentivize and reward its employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MGNS) stock is a Buy with a £5444.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Morgan Sindall stock, see the GB:MGNS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026