Ground Rents Income Fund (GRIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 20.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: UK
• Employees: 4
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 95,667,625
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,307
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,910
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 58.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: 17.50 p ▼(-27.08% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance driven by collapsing revenue and persistent losses, alongside deteriorating recent free cash flow. Technical indicators further pressure the score, showing a clear downtrend with negative MACD and the price far below key moving averages. Valuation has limited influence due to missing P/E and dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Moderate leverage / balance sheet support

A relatively low-to-moderate debt-to-equity ratio and a sizeable equity base (52.2m in 2025) provide structural financial flexibility for a REIT. This reduces near-term refinancing pressure and preserves capacity to manage liabilities or opportunistic asset repositioning over several months.

Positive operating and free cash flow history

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across prior years demonstrates underlying cash-generation ability, a durable asset for a property income vehicle. Even with recent deterioration, historical cash conversion indicates operations can produce liquidity to support near-term obligations and stabilise operations.

Lean operating footprint

A very small employee base implies a low fixed cost structure and operational agility. For a specialised, diversified REIT, lean overhead helps preserve cash, reduces burn during rent or asset-disposal cycles, and supports longer runway to implement strategic asset management or restructuring.

Negative Factors

Collapsing revenue and recurring net losses

A dramatic revenue collapse and repeated net losses materially weaken core earnings power. For a REIT this undermines rental income sustainability, constrains retained earnings, and diminishes the firm's ability to fund distributions or invest, posing a substantive medium-term operational risk.

Sharp free cash flow deterioration

A severe fall in free cash flow and extremely weak operating cash coverage of reported losses signal reduced internal funding capacity. This raises reliance on asset disposals or external financing to meet commitments, threatening dividend capacity and financial resilience over the next several quarters.

Balance sheet shrinkage and poor returns

A halved asset base and persistently negative ROE reflect erosion of capital efficiency and possible asset sales or write-downs. Reduced scale limits diversification benefits and raises refinancing risk, while negative returns indicate the firm is not generating adequate returns on shareholders' equity.

Ground Rents Income Fund Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ground Rents Income Fund PLC is a real estate investment trust externally managed by Braemar Estates (Residential) Ltd, Asset Management Arm. The firm invest in long dated United Kingdom ground rents. It acquire a portfolio of freeholds and head leases, offering the potential for income generation from ground rents, that is both secure and hedged against inflation, and the potential for capital growth from active asset management. Ground Rents Income Fund PLC was launched in August, 2012 and is based in England, United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

GRIO generates revenue primarily through the collection of ground rents from its portfolio of leased properties. Ground rents are typically paid by property owners to GRIO in exchange for the right to use the land, often on a long-term basis, such as 99 years or more. This creates a recurring income stream that is relatively stable over time. Additionally, the company may benefit from annual increases in ground rent tied to inflation or set periodic escalations. GRIO's revenue model is further enhanced by its focus on acquiring high-quality ground rent portfolios, which can lead to appreciation in asset value and potential capital gains. The company may also engage in partnerships with real estate developers and other investment firms to expand its portfolio and optimize its income-generating capabilities.

Ground Rents Income Fund Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial performance is constrained by very weak income statement trends: steep revenue declines (2025: -95.1%, 2024: -24.2%) and recurring net losses (2025: -4.3m; 2024: -29.7m). The balance sheet is a relative positive with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.16–0.34), but shrinking assets and negative ROE indicate ongoing profitability pressure. Cash flow remains positive, yet free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (-76.5% to 0.43m), reducing confidence in durability.

Income Statement

Income statement performance is weak and volatile. Revenue trends are sharply negative in the last two annual periods (2025: -95.1% growth; 2024: -24.2%), and profitability is consistently pressured with net losses in most years (2025 net income -4.3m; 2024 -29.7m; 2023 -1.1m; 2022 -7.5m), with only 2021 showing positive net income (1.2m). Operating profitability is also inconsistent (EBIT swings from positive in 2022 to deeply negative in 2024–2025), which limits visibility on earnings power.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet looks reasonably supported by equity and moderate leverage for a REIT. Debt-to-equity remains relatively low-to-moderate across the period (roughly 0.16–0.34), and equity remains sizeable (52.2m in 2025 vs. 56.5m in 2024). The key weakness is poor returns on equity driven by recurring losses (ROE negative in most years, including -8.3% in 2025 and -52.6% in 2024), and total assets have declined from 128.5m (2020) to 63.1m (2025), indicating balance sheet shrinkage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is mixed: operating and free cash flow are positive each year shown, but the trend deteriorated meaningfully in the most recent period (free cash flow down 76.5% in 2025 to 0.43m). Cash generation versus reported earnings is inconsistent, with operating cash flow relative to net income very weak in 2025 (coverage ~0.04), suggesting limited cash support for current losses. Prior years show stronger cash generation (e.g., 2022 and 2023), but the recent step-down raises durability concerns.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.95M	-26.96M	1.16M	5.60M	5.69M
Gross Profit	4.85M	-26.96M	1.16M	4.73M	4.71M
EBITDA	2.01M	2.32M	-4.08M	-18.91M	3.81M
Net Income	-4.32M	-29.71M	-1.12M	-7.52M	1.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	63.13M	79.59M	110.45M	112.24M	122.34M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.28M	5.53M	1.60M	1.91M	1.09M
Total Debt	8.16M	19.33M	20.85M	20.73M	19.11M
Total Liabilities	10.96M	23.10M	24.25M	23.71M	22.63M
Stockholders Equity	52.17M	56.49M	86.20M	88.52M	99.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	426.98K	2.08M	735.37K	2.95M	2.27M
Operating Cash Flow	426.98K	2.08M	735.37K	2.95M	2.27M
Investing Cash Flow	9.59M	3.56M	149.85K	42.80K	419.47K
Financing Cash Flow	-11.27M	-1.72M	-1.20M	-2.17M	-4.04M

Ground Rents Income Fund Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.63, above the 50-day MA of 19.64, and below the 200-day MA of 25.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 14.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRIO.

Ground Rents Income Fund Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AIRE	73 Outperform	£61.18M	4.85	10.22%	8.23%	8.48%	207.85%
CREI	72 Outperform	£414.58M	3.34	11.57%	7.17%	1.60%	211.81%
AEWU	71 Outperform	£166.93M	9.16	7.37%	7.43%	-10.95%	-30.09%
PCTN	60 Neutral	£411.63M	6.81	7.51%	5.15%	-3.98%	412.08%
API	58 Neutral	£7.23M	-3.10	-21.56%	307.61%	―	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
GRIO	43 Neutral	―	-5.76	―	―	―	―

Ground Rents Income Fund Corporate Events

Ground Rents Income Fund Flags Major Hit From Proposed UK Ground Rent Cap

Ground Rents Income Fund plc has warned that the UK Government’s draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, which would cap most long residential ground rents in England and Wales at £250 per year, falling to a nil value after 40 years from an expected start date no earlier than late 2028, could materially erode its earnings and asset base. The company argues the reforms risk unintended consequences for leaseholders through higher freeholder insolvency risk and weaker building safety oversight, and continues to advocate a targeted, evidence-based ‘three-stage proportionality test’ to address genuinely onerous ground rents while preserving contractual rights and investor confidence. Initial internal analysis suggests the proposed cap could cut GRIO’s like-for-like portfolio ground rent income by around 26% to £3.8m and reduce portfolio value by about 44% to £31m, implying an illustrative NAV fall to roughly £27.4m, or 28.6p per share, versus 54.5p per share at 30 September 2025, although these figures exclude any potential benefits from greater legislative certainty or delays in implementation. The trust, which is also involved in a Judicial Review related to enfranchisement provisions under the Leasehold and Freehold Reform Act 2024 and is awaiting a decision on permission to appeal after an initial High Court dismissal, is reviewing the Bill with its advisers and plans to update investors as the legislative process and secondary regulations develop.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRIO) stock is a Sell with a £25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ground Rents Income Fund stock, see the GB:GRIO Stock Forecast page.

Ground Rents Income Fund Reports 2025 Results Amidst Strategic Shifts

Ground Rents Income Fund PLC reported a reduction in its portfolio valuation by 9% to £56.2 million for the year ending September 2025, with asset sales helping to reduce its bank loan significantly. The company is navigating legislative challenges and undergoing board changes, with Judith MacKenzie taking over as Chair. Despite market uncertainties, the company has made progress in its realisation strategy, achieving disposals above valuation and maintaining a stable earnings level before revaluation loss.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRIO) stock is a Hold with a £27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ground Rents Income Fund stock, see the GB:GRIO Stock Forecast page.

Ground Rents Income Fund Refinances Loan to Extend Term and Reduce Costs

Ground Rents Income Fund plc has refinanced its £8.235 million loan facility with Santander UK plc, extending the loan term to January 2028 and reducing the interest margin. The refinancing provides the company with additional time to execute its asset realization strategy, approved by shareholders, to enhance shareholder returns. The company remains compliant with loan covenants and is progressing with further disposals, with updates expected in the upcoming annual report.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRIO) stock is a Hold with a £27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ground Rents Income Fund stock, see the GB:GRIO Stock Forecast page.

Ground Rents Income Fund Secures Improved Loan Terms

Ground Rents Income Fund plc has refinanced its £8.235 million loan facility with Santander UK plc, extending the loan term to January 2028 and reducing the interest margin. The refinancing aligns with the company’s strategy to realize assets in an orderly manner, providing additional time to optimize shareholder returns. The company remains compliant with loan covenants and anticipates further asset disposals, with updates to be included in the 2025 Annual Report.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRIO) stock is a Hold with a £27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ground Rents Income Fund stock, see the GB:GRIO Stock Forecast page.

Ground Rents Income Fund Appoints New Independent Non-Executive Director

Ground Rents Income Fund plc, a company involved in the real estate investment sector, has announced the appointment of Judith MacKenzie as an Independent Non-Executive Director, effective from 17 November 2025. This appointment is significant as Judith MacKenzie is set to succeed Barry Gilbertson as Chair, following his retirement, which marks a strategic leadership transition for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRIO) stock is a Hold with a £27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ground Rents Income Fund stock, see the GB:GRIO Stock Forecast page.