Firstgroup (FGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £858.12M
• Dividend Yield: 3.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 2.16%
• EPS Growth: 243.88%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 30,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 584,970,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,097,010
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,261,447
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 1.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: 202.50p
• Price Target Upside: 32.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

FirstGroup's overall stock score reflects mixed financial performance with challenges in profitability and leverage, countered by positive cash flows. The stock's technical indicators show bearish momentum, but its attractive valuation metrics, including a low P/E ratio and decent dividend yield, provide a buffer. Recent corporate actions, such as the share buyback and strategic acquisitions, further enhance the outlook, despite not directly impacting the score calculation due to weight redistribution.

Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FirstGroup plc is a leading transport operator in the United Kingdom and North America. The company operates through two primary sectors: First Bus and First Rail. First Bus is one of the largest bus operators in the UK, providing extensive local bus services across the country. First Rail operates multiple rail franchises and open access operations in the UK, delivering passenger rail services across various regions. The company is committed to providing safe, reliable, and sustainable transport solutions to millions of passengers annually.

How the Company Makes Money

FirstGroup generates revenue primarily through its transport services, which include bus and rail operations. In the First Bus sector, revenue is earned from fare collection from passengers, as well as government contracts and subsidies aimed at maintaining essential public transport services. The First Rail sector's income comes from a combination of passenger ticket sales, government franchise payments, and performance-related bonuses. Additionally, FirstGroup leverages strategic partnerships with local authorities and commercial entities to enhance service offerings and maintain financial sustainability. The company's earnings are also influenced by factors such as ridership levels, operational efficiency, and regulatory changes in the transport industry.

Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FirstGroup faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, as reflected in the negative net income and high leverage. Despite these challenges, the company maintains positive cash flows, suggesting operational resilience. However, addressing profitability and managing debt levels will be crucial for financial stability.

Income Statement

The company's revenue has experienced a slight decline from the previous year, indicating challenges in maintaining growth. Gross profit margin stands at a healthy level, but the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss, which is concerning. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest, suggesting limited profitability from core operations.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, which implies significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the net loss. However, the equity ratio is reasonable, indicating a fair proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

The company demonstrates positive free cash flow and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio, despite the net loss. This indicates efficient cash flow management and potential for improvement if profitability returns. However, free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous year.

Breakdown
Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.72B	4.75B	4.59B	4.32B	4.64B
	Gross Profit
2.02B	2.24B	2.12B	2.04B	1.80B
	EBIT
46.50M	7.50M	-57.50M	-17.10M	-103.20M
	EBITDA
656.20M	896.70M	863.60M	857.30M	398.90M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.90M	87.10M	636.40M	78.40M	-327.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
496.50M	791.40M	787.70M	1.44B	968.90M
	Total Assets
3.81B	4.41B	3.83B	8.29B	8.44B
	Total Debt
1.63B	2.07B	1.41B	3.52B	4.28B
	Net Debt
1.13B	1.28B	626.10M	2.08B	3.31B
	Total Liabilities
3.17B	3.66B	2.95B	7.14B	7.27B
	Stockholders Equity
633.30M	740.20M	876.60M	1.18B	1.21B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
324.00M	402.30M	-184.80M	785.80M	628.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
543.30M	580.20M	66.80M	1.21B	959.80M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.20M	73.00M	2.08B	-303.00M	-306.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-776.30M	-640.90M	-2.89B	-326.90M	-481.00M

Firstgroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 152.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 152.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.49, below the 50-day MA of 164.17, and below the 200-day MA of 156.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:FGP.

Firstgroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DLG	63 Neutral	£3.33B	22.85	5.97%	2.34%	26.11%	-29.43%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.67B	13.25	3.04%	3.47%	3.63%	-13.99%
FGP	54 Neutral	£858.12M	9.74	14.51%	3.73%	2.16%	243.88%

Firstgroup Corporate Events

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update

FirstGroup plc has announced that as of March 31, 2025, its capital comprises 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 165,724,514 held in treasury, resulting in 584,970,501 voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their reporting obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their stakes and voting power within the company.

FirstGroup Completes £50 Million Share Buyback Programme

FirstGroup plc announced the completion of its £50 million share buyback programme, having repurchased over 30 million shares. The company plans to leverage its strong financial position to invest in decarbonisation, diversify its portfolio, and potentially return more capital to shareholders, indicating a focus on sustainable growth and shareholder value.

FirstGroup Chair Invests in Company Shares

Lena Wilson, the Chair of the Board at FirstGroup plc, has purchased 14,000 shares of the company at a price of 176.221 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. This transaction, disclosed in line with the Market Abuse Regulation, highlights a significant personal investment by a key company leader, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability.

FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc announced that Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, purchased 86 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing engagement with the company’s shareholding structure, potentially reinforcing investor confidence and aligning management interests with shareholder value.

FirstGroup Unveils Ambitious Climate Transition Plan

FirstGroup plc has published its first Climate Transition Plan, outlining its strategy to reduce emissions and manage climate-related risks. The plan includes targets such as a 63% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035 and a 20% reduction in Scope 3 emissions. FirstGroup has invested over £300 million in decarbonizing its bus fleet, with more than 650 zero-emission vehicles now in service. The company is also expanding its rail operations with new routes and a £500 million order for Hitachi trains. The plan aims to enhance FirstGroup’s operations, support community growth, and drive commercial success.

BlackRock Increases Stake in FirstGroup PLC

BlackRock, Inc. has increased its voting rights in FirstGroup PLC to 5.79% as of March 4, 2025, up from a previous position of 5.78%. This change in holdings reflects a minor adjustment in BlackRock’s stake, indicating continued interest and investment in FirstGroup, which could influence the company’s strategic decisions and market perception.

BlackRock Adjusts Holdings in FirstGroup PLC

FirstGroup PLC, a UK-based company, has experienced a change in its shareholder structure as BlackRock, Inc., a major investment management firm, has adjusted its voting rights in the company. BlackRock’s total voting rights in FirstGroup now stand at 5.78%, following a slight increase from previous holdings. This adjustment in holdings could potentially influence FirstGroup’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning.

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update

FirstGroup plc has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of 28 February 2025. The company has a total of 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 157,518,775 held in treasury, resulting in 593,176,240 voting rights. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, impacting how they manage their stakes in the company.

FirstGroup Enters London Bus Market with RATP Acquisition

FirstGroup plc has completed the acquisition of RATP Dev Transit London Limited, marking its entry into the London bus market with a significant presence. This acquisition aligns with FirstGroup’s strategy to diversify and grow its revenue base, as RATP London holds a 12% market share in London and operates 83 Transport for London route contracts. The acquisition is expected to enhance FirstGroup’s market position and financial performance, with anticipated annual revenues of £300-350 million and operating margins of 6-7%.

FirstGroup Director Jane Lodge Joins Morgan Advanced Materials

FirstGroup plc has announced that Jane Lodge, a Non-Executive Director of the company, will also take on a role as a Non-Executive Director at Morgan Advanced Materials PLC starting June 1, 2025. This appointment may enhance FirstGroup’s strategic insights and industry connections, potentially benefiting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

BlackRock Adjusts Stake in FirstGroup PLC

FirstGroup PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in its shareholder structure due to BlackRock, Inc.’s acquisition or disposal of voting rights. BlackRock’s current position holds 5.77% of the voting rights in FirstGroup, slightly down from a previous 5.8%. This adjustment in BlackRock’s holdings reflects a minor shift in investor confidence or strategy and may influence FirstGroup’s market perception and stakeholder interests.

BlackRock Boosts Stake in FirstGroup to 5.81%

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in the ownership of its voting rights, with BlackRock, Inc. increasing its stake to 5.81%, as of February 19, 2025. This development slightly raises BlackRock’s influence on FirstGroup’s strategic decisions, reflecting a potential shift in stakeholder dynamics and potential impacts on the company’s future governance and policy direction.

FirstGroup’s CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc announced the purchase of 92 ordinary shares by Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, as part of the Share Incentive Plan. This transaction, which took place on 10 February 2025 at a price of £1.6297 per share, was conducted in compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation. This move reflects the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and potentially signals confidence in its financial health and future performance.

FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback, Acquires 409,118 Shares

FirstGroup plc has executed a share buyback transaction, purchasing 409,118 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 160.26 pence per share. This move, part of a previously announced buyback program, could impact the company’s equity structure and shareholder value, as it holds the purchased shares in treasury with the possibility of cancellation in the future.

FirstGroup Executes Share Buyback as Part of Strategic Program

FirstGroup plc has announced a share buyback transaction, purchasing 375,859 of its ordinary shares at a weighted average price of 161.68 pence per share. This move is part of the company’s previously announced buyback program and follows the company’s strategy to hold these shares as treasury shares, with the possibility of canceling them in the future. This transaction affects the total voting rights in the company, which now stands at 599,012,897, providing shareholders with updated figures for regulatory compliance.

FirstGroup Advances £50m Share Buyback Programme

FirstGroup plc has completed the first tranche of its £50 million on-market share buyback programme, purchasing 15,703,358 ordinary shares. The second tranche, managed by Panmure Liberum Limited, has commenced with up to £25 million allocated for further buybacks, signifying FirstGroup’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

FirstGroup PLC Reports Major Shareholding Adjustment by BlackRock

FirstGroup PLC announced a notification of major holdings due to changes in voting rights held by BlackRock, Inc., a significant stakeholder. The notification indicates BlackRock now holds 5.78% of the voting rights, a slight decrease from a previous position of 5.83%. This adjustment in holdings might influence FirstGroup’s shareholder dynamics and could impact future decision-making processes within the company.

FirstGroup Announces Total Voting Rights Update

FirstGroup plc, a leading transport operator, has announced its current total voting rights and capital structure, as per regulatory requirements. As of January 31, 2025, the company has 750,695,015 ordinary shares, with 149,635,862 held in treasury, resulting in 601,059,153 voting rights available for shareholders. This figure is crucial for stakeholders to assess their shareholding percentage and any corresponding obligations under the FCA’s regulations.

FirstGroup PLC Reports Update on Voting Rights

FirstGroup PLC announced a change in the voting rights attached to its shares, following an acquisition or disposal by Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, a trustee of the FirstGroup plc Employee Benefit Trust. The change involves a slight decrease in the percentage of voting rights from 3.0061% to 3.0029%, representing 18,118,584 voting rights. This update reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its shareholder structure and may influence stakeholder perceptions regarding its governance and operational strategies.

BlackRock Increases Stake in FirstGroup PLC

BlackRock, Inc., a major shareholder of FirstGroup PLC, has increased its holding to 5.83% of the total voting rights, as notified on January 28, 2025. This change, initiated by client instruction for decision-making on voting rights, reflects a slight increase from the previous position, potentially impacting the company’s governance and voting outcomes.

BlackRock Adjusts Voting Rights in FirstGroup PLC

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of voting rights by BlackRock, Inc. As of January 23, 2025, BlackRock holds 5.75% of the voting rights in FirstGroup, slightly decreased from a previous 5.76%. This adjustment in ownership may influence FirstGroup’s decision-making and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly regarding corporate governance matters.

BlackRock Increases Stake in Firstgroup PLC

BlackRock, Inc. has increased its voting rights in Firstgroup PLC to 5.76%, up from a previous 5%, signifying a strategic move in its investment portfolio. This adjustment could influence Firstgroup’s shareholder dynamics and potentially impact decision-making within the company, reflecting BlackRock’s confidence in the company’s market position.

FirstGroup PLC Reports Change in Voting Rights

FirstGroup PLC has announced a change in its voting rights due to an acquisition or disposal of shares. Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, acting as a trustee for the FirstGroup Employee Benefit Trust, now holds 2.9933% of the voting rights, a slight decrease from the previous 3.0011%. This adjustment in voting rights may influence the company’s governance and shareholder dynamics, impacting stakeholder decisions moving forward.

FirstGroup Announces Shift in Voting Rights

FirstGroup plc, a UK-based issuer, has announced a change in its voting rights. Equiniti Trust (Jersey) Limited, acting as trustee of the FirstGroup plc Employee Benefit Trust, has crossed the threshold of 3.0011% in voting rights, holding a total of 18,237,640 voting rights as of January 8, 2025. This notification highlights a significant shift in the company’s voting structure, which could impact its governance and stakeholder influence.

FirstGroup CFO Participates in Share Incentive Plan

FirstGroup plc announced a share purchase by Ryan Mangold, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. This purchase, involving 95 ordinary shares at a price of £1.5813 each, reflects routine shareholding adjustments and aligns with regulatory compliance, though it has limited immediate impact on the company’s operations or market positioning.

Ameriprise Financial Increases Stake in Firstgroup PLC

Firstgroup PLC, a UK-based company, has seen a change in its major shareholding as Ameriprise Financial, Inc., an American financial services company, increased its voting rights from 11.998% to 12.032%. This adjustment in holdings indicates a slight increase in Ameriprise’s influence within Firstgroup, which may affect company decisions and strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders.

FirstGroup Directors Acquire Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment

FirstGroup plc announced that on 8 January 2025, two of its directors, Ryan Mangold and Anthony Green, acquired shares in the company. This acquisition was a result of reinvesting the interim dividend paid by the company on 31 December 2024. Ryan Mangold, the Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, acquired 91 shares, while Anthony Green, an Employee Director, acquired 18 shares, with transactions conducted on the London Stock Exchange.