TOC Property Backed Lending Trust (DVNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: N/A
• Dividend Yield: 5.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.6
• Beta (1Y): -0.14
• Revenue Growth: 24.93%
• EPS Growth: 27.71%
• Country: UK
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 24,978,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,274
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,541
• PEG Ratio: -0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 85.00 p ▲(25.93% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is primarily held back by weaker 2025 fundamentals (sharp net income decline, higher leverage, and free cash flow falling to zero) despite strong revenue growth. Offsetting this, the technical setup is moderately positive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, and valuation is attractive with a low P/E and high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Recovery

A ~34% revenue rebound in 2025 signals durable improvement in originations or asset performance after prior weakness, strengthening the top‑line base. Sustained revenue growth supports underwriting scale, fee income and provides a steadier foundation for earnings over the next several quarters.

Strong Equity Base

A recurring equity base of ~£19–23m gives the trust loss‑absorption capacity and capital stability crucial for a property‑backed lending model. This equity buffer enhances resilience to credit mark‑downs and supports continued lending operations without immediate recapitalization pressure.

Consistent Operating Cash Flow

Positive operating cash flow historically demonstrates the business generates cash from core lending activities, underpinning dividend capacity and reinvestment. Even if weakened recently, recurring OCF indicates core cash generation that can sustain operations and absorptive losses over time.

Negative Factors

Earnings Volatility

A sharp decline in net income reduces retained earnings and the margin of safety for a lending trust. Persistent earnings volatility makes planning distributions and provisioning harder, heightening downside risk if asset performance or credit costs worsen in the medium term.

Rising Leverage

Material increase in debt raises financial leverage and funding sensitivity for a property‑backed lender. Higher indebtedness constrains flexibility, amplifies earnings variability from funding cost moves, and increases refinancing and liquidity risk across the next several quarters.

Deteriorating Free Cash Flow

A drop of free cash flow to zero curtails internal capacity to fund new loans, cover distributions or build reserves. Reliance on external financing or equity to grow or meet payouts raises execution risk and can pressure returns if capital markets tighten over the coming months.

TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Develop North PLC provides a portfolio of fixed rate loans primarily secured over land and/or property in the United Kingdom. It also invests in financial assets comprising loans. The company makes investments primarily through senior secured loans; and other loans, such as bridging loans, subordinated loans, selected loan financings, and other debt instruments. The company was formerly known as TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Plc and changed its name to Develop North PLC in May 2022. Develop North PLC was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Chelmsford, the United Kingdom.

TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (~+34% vs. 2024) and profitability remains solid structurally, but risk increased as net income fell sharply (~£0.42m vs. ~£1.17m), debt stepped up materially (~£6.78m vs. ~£2.1m), and free cash flow dropped to £0.

Income Statement

Revenue has accelerated recently (2025 revenue up ~34% vs. 2024), following a prior dip in 2022–2023 and a rebound in 2024. Profitability is strong for the business model, with consistently high gross profit and solid operating profits, but net income fell sharply in 2025 (~£0.42m vs. ~£1.17m in 2024), suggesting more volatile earnings despite top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a sizable equity base (~£19–23m over time) relative to assets, which provides stability. However, leverage increased meaningfully in 2025 as total debt rose to ~£6.78m (vs. ~£2.1m in 2024 and £0 in 2023), reducing financial flexibility and increasing sensitivity to funding costs and asset performance.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been positive each year, but it weakened in 2025 (~£0.58m vs. ~£1.06m in 2024), aligning with the drop in net income. Free cash flow is a key concern: it fell to £0 in 2025 (from ~£1.06m in 2024), indicating a deterioration in cash generation available to reinvest or distribute, even though prior years showed solid conversion.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.40M	1.51M	839.00K	1.04M	1.43M
Gross Profit	2.21M	1.51M	839.00K	1.04M	1.43M
EBITDA	782.00K	1.25M	0.00	514.00K	0.00
Net Income	415.00K	1.17M	261.00K	514.00K	929.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.43M	22.18M	20.89M	26.13M	22.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	707.00K	3.01M	1.15M	638.00K	4.54M
Total Debt	6.78M	2.10M	0.00	4.00M	0.00
Total Liabilities	7.08M	2.24M	191.00K	4.00M	135.00K
Stockholders Equity	19.35M	19.94M	20.70M	22.02M	22.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.06M	998.00K	718.00K	681.00K
Operating Cash Flow	575.00K	1.06M	998.00K	718.00K	681.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-4.14M	-2.17M	5.25M	-7.42M	4.96M
Financing Cash Flow	3.68M	78.00K	-5.73M	2.79M	-2.09M

TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DVNO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.82, below the 50-day MA of 75.39, and below the 200-day MA of 73.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:DVNO.

TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POLN	82 Outperform	£431.70M	4.27	9.28%	5.79%	82.69%	21.07%
FSG	73 Outperform	£432.93M	7.48	44.99%	5.73%	―	―
DVNO	69 Neutral	―	40.63	5.32%	5.93%	24.93%	27.71%
ICG	67 Neutral	£4.37B	5.37	23.35%	4.13%	28.34%	44.04%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
BPT	54 Neutral	£2.12B	110.86	4.25%	2.85%	62.91%	-15.13%

TOC Property Backed Lending Trust Corporate Events

Develop North PLC lifts income, reshapes portfolio with stronger North East focus

Develop North PLC reported a modest net asset value total return of 2.1% for the year to 30 November 2025, as NAV per share eased to 77.48 pence while investment income rose 14.6% to £2.22 million. The trust maintained its dividend policy, delivering a 5.9% annualised yield via total dividends of 4 pence per share, despite a small revenue per share decline driven by impairments on two loans.

The company deployed £9.5 million into nine new and existing projects and completed three full exits and seven partial redemptions, bringing total exits since inception to 26 and reducing average loan-to-value to about 69.7%. Management sharpened its regional focus, with 70.3% of capital now in the North East, and is preparing a policy change and capital raise in 2026 to expand and diversify the portfolio while relying on a £7 million Shawbrook facility for ongoing liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North PLC declares fourth interim dividend for 2025

Develop North PLC, a closed-end investment company listed on the London Stock Exchange, focuses on providing finance to residential and commercial property projects. The trust serves the UK property sector by backing both housing and commercial real estate borrowers.

The company’s board has declared a fourth interim dividend of 1.00 pence per ordinary share for the financial year ending 30 November 2025. The dividend will be paid on 10 April 2026 to shareholders on the register as of 13 March 2026, reinforcing the trust’s income distribution profile for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North Wins Unanimous Backing for New Investment Policy and Major Share Issuance Powers

Develop North PLC has secured shareholder approval for a comprehensive overhaul of its capital-raising and governance framework, with all resolutions at its 18 February general meeting passed unanimously on a poll. Investors backed a new investment objective and policy, the authority to issue up to 368 million ordinary or C shares under an initial issue and ongoing share issuance programme, and updates to the company’s articles.

The approvals also grant the board additional authority to allot shares, disapply pre-emption rights for future issuances, and buy back ordinary and C shares following admissions to trading. The clean sweep of 100% votes in favour strengthens the company’s capacity to raise fresh capital, manage its share base actively, and align its structure with its revised strategy, potentially enhancing flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions for existing and prospective shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North appoints regeneration specialist Michelle Percy as CEO to lead next growth phase

Develop North PLC has appointed Michelle Percy as its new Chief Executive Officer with immediate effect, coinciding with the company’s next phase of growth following the publication of its prospectus and the launch of a £58 million fundraise. Percy brings extensive experience in public-private partnerships and major regeneration projects from nearly nine years at Newcastle City Council, as well as prior roles in significant commercial developments in Newcastle; her appointment, while not initially including a board seat, is expected to strengthen Develop North’s ability to channel capital into impactful regional projects and support its strategic ambition to drive inward investment and economic development in the North East.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North PLC Relocates Registered Office to New Newcastle Address

Develop North PLC, a London-listed closed-end investment company focused on providing finance to the residential and commercial property sectors, has updated its corporate details as it continues to operate in the UK property-backed lending space. The company announced an immediate change to its registered office address to Wizu Workspace, Portland House, in central Newcastle upon Tyne, a formal administrative move that updates its official corporate domicile but does not indicate any change in its investment strategy or operations for shareholders and borrowers in the property sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North Limits International Distribution of Market Announcement

Develop North PLC has issued a regulatory notice restricting the release, distribution, or publication of its latest announcement in several major jurisdictions, including the United States, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Japan and EEA states, where such dissemination would breach local securities laws. The move underscores the company’s adherence to cross-border securities regulations and suggests the communication likely relates to a transaction or capital markets activity intended primarily for investors in permitted jurisdictions, with implications for how and where it can raise funds and engage international stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.

Develop North Launches Retail Share Offer to Fund Expansion of Property-Backed Lending Portfolio

Develop North PLC has launched a UK retail offer via BookBuild and a separate offer for subscription of new ordinary shares at 81.6 pence per share, as part of an initial capital-raising exercise that will precede a wider share issuance programme. The Initial Issue, which is subject to shareholder approval, regulatory admissions and other customary conditions, is intended to fund further investments in line with the company’s proposed investment objective and policy, broadening and diversifying its property-backed lending portfolio. The retail offer, open from 16 January to 30 March 2026 to eligible UK investors through participating intermediaries with a minimum subscription of 1,000 shares, will see the new shares admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market on 2 April 2026, with the new stock ranking pari passu with existing shares and offering retail shareholders a direct route to participate in the company’s next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:DVNO) stock is a Hold with a £74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TOC Property Backed Lending Trust stock, see the GB:DVNO Stock Forecast page.