BP p.l.c. (BP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £89.64B
• Dividend Yield: 5.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 1650.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -6.90%
• EPS Growth: -43.82%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 100,500
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 15,700,470,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,231,935
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,714,907
• PEG Ratio: -19.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £494.72
• Price Target Upside: -15.17% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.52
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £179.78B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: 612.00 p ▲(4.94% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven mainly by adequate but mixed financial performance (strong cash generation offset by weaker profitability and rising leverage) and constructive technicals. This is partially offset by very weak earnings-based valuation (extreme P/E), while the earnings call adds support due to improving cash flow, cost actions and balance-sheet targets despite execution and timing risks.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow generation

Sustained adjusted free cash flow (~$13bn in 2025; operating cash flow $24.5bn) provides durable internal funding for capital investment, dividends and debt reduction. Strong cash conversion supports balance-sheet repair and execution of strategic projects over the next 2–4 years.

Divestment progress and portfolio simplification

Material divestment delivery and targeted asset sales reduce portfolio complexity and free up capital to hit net-debt targets and reallocate to higher-return activities. Completed proceeds strengthen leverage metrics and improve strategic optionality over the medium term.

Reserve replacement & exploration success

Near-term reserve replacement gains and multiple discoveries expand long-term production optionality and underpin future organic volumes. Improving organic resource replacement helps sustain upstream cash generation and lowers reliance on acquisitions to replace production.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage / net debt above target

Leverage remains meaningfully above management’s target, reducing financial flexibility if hydrocarbons prices weaken. Elevated net debt and a higher debt-to-equity ratio constrain capital allocation, limit buybacks, and increase sensitivity to divestment timing and cyclical earnings shocks.

Impairments tied to transition businesses

Material write-downs in transition assets indicate overhang on returns and slower-than-expected economics for some renewables/biogas investments. Impairments reduce booked equity and signal the need for stricter capital discipline and reallocation to higher-return opportunities.

Workplace safety incidents and fatalities

Fatal safety events create lasting operational, regulatory and reputational costs, prompting process changes and potential restrictions. Elevated safety risk can slow rollouts, increase compliance spend, and affect workforce morale, with multi-year implications for operations and insurance costs.

BP p.l.c. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BP p.l.c. engages in the energy business worldwide. It operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, Customers & Products, and Rosneft segments. It produces and trades in natural gas; offers biofuels; operates onshore and offshore wind power, and solar power generating facilities; and provides de-carbonization solutions and services, such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. The company is also involved in the convenience and mobility business, which manages the sale of fuels to retail customers, convenience products, aviation fuels, and Castrol lubricants; and refining and trading of oil products, as well as operation of electric vehicle charging facilities. In addition, it produces and refines oil and gas; and invests in upstream, downstream, and alternative energy companies, as well as in advanced mobility, bio and low carbon products, carbon management, digital transformation, and power and storage areas. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

BP primarily makes money by producing, processing, trading, and selling energy and energy-related products and services. Upstream: BP earns revenue from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its operated and non-operated fields. Realized prices are influenced by global commodity benchmarks and differentials, while profitability depends on production volumes, lifting costs, royalties/taxes, and capital spending. Midstream/Trading: BP generates revenue and margin by marketing, transporting, storing, and trading hydrocarbons; this includes optimizing flows across pipelines, ships, terminals, and storage and using trading/derivatives to manage price risk and capture market opportunities (earnings are driven by market volatility, spreads, and optimization capability). Downstream (Refining & Fuels): BP purchases crude oil and processes it into refined products (e.g., gasoline, diesel, jet fuel); it earns refining margins driven by the spread between crude input costs and product prices, plus utilization, efficiency, and product mix. It also sells fuels wholesale to commercial and industrial customers and through branded channels. Retail & Convenience: BP earns fuel and non-fuel margin through service stations and convenience offers (where applicable), with economics driven by retail fuel margins, volumes, and in-store sales. Lubricants: BP sells branded and bulk lubricants and related services to consumers and industrial customers; this business typically earns margin from product branding, formulation, and distribution rather than commodity exposure alone. Low carbon and other: BP also generates revenue from activities such as electric vehicle charging, bioenergy (including fuels and feedstocks), and renewable power-related activities; earnings in these areas depend on volumes sold, customer contracts, project economics, and the structure of power/renewables markets. Across segments, BP’s results are materially affected by global oil and gas prices, refining margins, demand levels, foreign exchange, regulatory and carbon-related costs, and the performance of its trading and optimization activities.

BP p.l.c. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are adequate but mixed: cash generation is solid (Cash Flow score 62) and free cash flow remained positive, but profitability has weakened materially versus 2023 (Income Statement score 56) and leverage has risen with debt-to-equity ~1.37 in 2025 (Balance Sheet score 52), reducing flexibility if the cycle softens.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, with declines in 2023–2024 followed by a modest rebound in 2025. Profitability has deteriorated sharply versus 2023: net profit margin fell from healthy levels to near break-even in 2024–2025, despite still-positive operating profitability (EBITDA margin improved in 2025 vs. 2024). Overall, the business shows cyclical earnings power but with materially weaker bottom-line conversion recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased over the last two years: debt-to-equity moved from below 1.0 (2022–2023) to above 1.2 in 2024 and ~1.37 in 2025, alongside a decline in equity. While the asset base is large and relatively stable, the higher leverage reduces flexibility and raises risk if the earnings backdrop remains soft.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains solid: operating cash flow stayed strong across 2024–2025 and free cash flow remained positive, with growth improving in 2025 after a dip in 2024. However, the relationship between cash flow and reported earnings is not especially strong in the latest period (free cash flow is well below net income in ratio terms provided), suggesting earnings quality/working-capital timing and/or higher capital intensity is a watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	189.34B	185.23B	213.67B	240.86B	154.71B
Gross Profit	33.53B	28.11B	47.39B	54.05B	21.65B
EBITDA	31.07B	25.11B	42.89B	29.37B	27.82B
Net Income	55.00M	382.83M	15.50B	-2.48B	7.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	278.53B	282.23B	280.29B	288.12B	287.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.71B	34.52B	28.59B	29.77B	30.96B
Total Debt	72.53B	71.55B	63.08B	55.49B	69.79B
Total Liabilities	204.53B	203.91B	194.80B	205.13B	196.83B
Stockholders Equity	53.05B	59.25B	70.28B	67.55B	75.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.27B	12.00B	17.75B	28.86B	12.72B
Operating Cash Flow	24.49B	27.30B	32.04B	40.93B	23.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.50B	-13.25B	-14.87B	-13.71B	-5.69B
Financing Cash Flow	-15.88B	-7.30B	-13.36B	-28.02B	-18.08B

BP p.l.c. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 583.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 583.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 505.31, above the 50-day MA of 471.40, and above the 200-day MA of 425.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 26.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BP.

BP p.l.c. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHEL	73 Outperform	£194.81B	11.92	8.25%	4.00%	-9.21%	-2.61%
ENOG	73 Outperform	£1.70B	5.30	0.18%	10.99%	-2.66%	0.11%
SEPL	70 Outperform	£2.87B	13.86	8.95%	5.64%	159.13%	143.76%
HBR	69 Neutral	£5.80B	-24.34	-4.05%	8.77%	123.03%	-330.89%
ITH	67 Neutral	£4.70B	-42.84	-4.67%	14.05%	63.10%	-161.03%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BP	60 Neutral	£89.64B	1,650.36	0.10%	5.73%	-6.90%	-43.82%