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Ashmore Group PLC (GB:ASHM)
LSE:ASHM

Ashmore Group PLC (ASHM) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:ASHM

Ashmore Group PLC

(LSE:ASHM)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
205.00p
▲(12.33% Upside)
Ashmore Group PLC's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and a robust balance sheet, balanced by challenges in revenue growth and cash flow. The attractive dividend yield and strategic growth initiatives are positive, but technical indicators suggest caution due to potential short-term volatility.
Positive Factors
High Profitability and Margins
Sustained high gross and net margins indicate the business earns strong fee economics on AUM, allowing durable reinvestment in distribution, talent and seed capital. Robust margins support dividend payments and absorb volatility in AUM-driven revenue over the medium term.
Very Low Financial Leverage
Extremely low leverage and a high equity ratio give the firm financial flexibility to fund seed investments, expand local offices, and sustain dividends through market stress. Low debt reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic initiatives without balance-sheet strain.
Local Expansion and Product Development
Growth in local offices and successful new product launches broaden distribution and diversify AUM mix. Seed-capital gains validate product-market fit and can generate scalable management fees, strengthening long-term revenue prospects beyond legacy high-yield exposure.
Negative Factors
Material Revenue Decline
A persistent revenue decline driven by lower average AUM and weaker performance fees is structurally important because fee income funds operating costs and dividends. Continued revenue pressure reduces reinvestment capacity and raises reliance on cost cuts to protect margins.
Weakened Operating Cash Generation
Declining free cash flow and operating cash below reported income constrain the firm's ability to fund seed investments, maintain distributions and invest in growth initiatives. Over time this weakens financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to further AUM shocks.
Persistent High‑Yield Outflows and Redemptions
Ongoing redemptions in high‑yield—a core capability—erode the firm’s higher‑fee AUM and can change product mix toward lower‑fee strategies. Structural outflows reduce recurring fee income and make it harder to restore scale, pressuring long‑term growth and margin sustainability.

Ashmore Group PLC (ASHM) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Ashmore Group PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAshmore Group plc is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to retail and institutional clients. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm also launches and manages equity and fixed income mutual funds for its clients. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets in emerging markets across the globe. The firm employs combination of fundamental analysis to make its investments. Ashmore Group Plc was founded in 1992 and is based in London, United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyAshmore Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. The company earns management fees based on the assets under management (AUM), which grow as more capital is allocated to its investment products. Performance fees are charged when the funds outperform a specified benchmark, incentivizing the firm to deliver strong investment returns. Additionally, Ashmore benefits from strategic partnerships with institutional investors and financial intermediaries, which help attract new investments. The firm's focus on emerging markets, combined with its strong historical performance, contributes to its ability to maintain and grow its revenue streams.

Ashmore Group PLC Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong emerging markets performance and strategic growth in local businesses, contrasted by declines in revenue and earnings, ongoing challenges in high-yield inflows, and increased operating costs. The firm is strategically positioned for future growth, although the immediate financial performance has been weaker.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Emerging Markets Performance
Emerging markets have shown strong returns, with a 15% year-to-date return in local currency. The firm's performance has been strong, with 70% of assets outperforming over 3 years and 81% over 5 years.
Strategic Growth in Local Businesses
Local businesses have grown, with assets under management increasing by 5% to just under $8 billion. The equities business now makes up 16% of assets and continues to grow.
Successful Fund Launches and Seed Investments
New product launches and seed investments include ex-China products, frontier debt, and impact debt space, with GBP 40 million contributed to profits from seed capital.
Positive Net Inflows in Multiple Areas
Net inflows observed in equities, alternatives, investment-grade strategies, and local offices, consistent with strategic objectives.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Revenue and Earnings
Revenue declined by 22% due to lower average AUM and performance fees. EBITDA decreased by 33% to GBP 52.5 million, and diluted EPS fell by 13% year-on-year.
Challenges in High Yield and Fixed Income
Net outflows continue in the high-yield space, and redemptions totalled $12.3 billion, a 22% decline, due to client-specific factors.
Increased Operating Costs and Variable Comp
Despite cost reductions, the variable compensation charge remains high, leading to an adjusted operating margin of 36%.
Weak U.S. Dollar Impact
A weaker U.S. dollar posed a modest headwind, impacting adjusted net revenue and contributing to a decline in management fees.
Company Guidance
During the call, Ashmore's CEO, Mark Coombs, and Finance Director, Tom Shippey, provided a comprehensive update on the company's financial and strategic performance for the fiscal year ending June 2025. Key metrics highlighted include a 3% decrease in assets under management (AUM) to $47 billion, with net inflows observed in equities and investment-grade assets, while high-yield remains a challenge. Operating costs were reduced by 14%, and EBITDA fell by 33% to GBP 52.5 million. The company maintained a margin of 36% and contributed GBP 40 million in profits from seed capital investments. Diluted EPS decreased by 13% to 11.8p, yet the dividend per share was sustained at 16.9p. Strategically, Ashmore expanded its local offices with new establishments in Qatar and Mexico, contributing to a 5% increase in AUM across its network. The group reported GBP 146.5 million in adjusted net revenue, down 22% year-on-year, and a robust performance fee contribution of GBP 10 million. The group's financial resources remain strong, with GBP 604 million in financial resources and a recommended unchanged final dividend of 12.1p. The outlook remains positive, with Ashmore positioned to capitalize on emerging market growth and increasing client engagement, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Ashmore Group PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ashmore Group PLC shows strong profitability with high profit margins and a robust balance sheet with minimal leverage. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation, including a 16% revenue decline and a 35.4% drop in free cash flow growth, could impact future financial stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Ashmore Group PLC has shown strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 83.5% and a net profit margin of 56.2% in the latest year. However, the company has experienced a significant revenue decline of 16% compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in revenue growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 75.4% and 77.6%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency despite the revenue drop.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0059, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is healthy at 10.4%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 86.2%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Ashmore Group PLC's cash flow performance shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 35.4%, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.46, indicating that operating cash flow is less than net income, which may affect liquidity. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient free cash flow relative to its net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue142.40M144.40M186.80M219.30M199.50M424.90M
Gross Profit71.40M120.60M101.70M153.10M126.10M344.60M
EBITDA44.40M112.00M131.50M86.60M107.60M276.80M
Net Income81.20M81.20M93.70M83.30M88.50M240.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets908.10M908.10M979.70M1.01B1.10B1.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments687.20M687.20M745.50M764.30M849.40M815.20M
Total Debt4.60M4.60M6.40M5.80M8.00M9.80M
Total Liabilities117.30M117.30M88.90M95.70M131.40M175.30M
Stockholders Equity782.60M782.60M882.60M898.80M945.00M911.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow48.40M48.40M88.30M140.00M158.10M154.30M
Operating Cash Flow48.60M48.60M89.10M140.40M158.60M155.00M
Investing Cash Flow33.60M33.60M-108.40M-5.20M70.30M-32.50M
Financing Cash Flow-156.10M-156.10M-151.20M-170.00M-173.30M-121.10M

Ashmore Group PLC Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price182.50
Price Trends
50DMA
168.92
Positive
100DMA
167.33
Positive
200DMA
156.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.07
Negative
RSI
59.57
Neutral
STOCH
49.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ASHM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 182.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 176.10, above the 50-day MA of 168.92, and above the 200-day MA of 156.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ASHM.

Ashmore Group PLC Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
£3.84B12.0541.56%5.93%4.28%5.18%
76
Outperform
£2.92B21.0312.23%5.71%-10.85%-42.02%
76
Outperform
£543.66M13.9331.19%8.73%7.71%-7.39%
76
Outperform
£2.07B32.824.75%4.91%14.05%-3.07%
73
Outperform
£900.18M15.787.11%2.70%-4.38%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
£1.21B15.009.75%9.91%-28.89%-12.14%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:ASHM
Ashmore Group PLC
182.50
43.09
30.91%
GB:JUP
Jupiter Fund Management Plc
176.60
105.66
148.94%
GB:EMG
Man Group plc
261.20
68.72
35.70%
GB:POLR
Polar Capital Holdings
564.00
98.94
21.27%
GB:RAT
Rathbones Group PLC
2,000.00
430.02
27.39%
GB:N91
Ninety One
220.20
78.06
54.92%

Ashmore Group PLC Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Ashmore Group Director Acquires Shares Reflecting Confidence in Company
Positive
Dec 9, 2025

Ashmore Group PLC has announced a transaction involving Clive Adamson, a director of the company, who acquired ordinary shares using cash proceeds from the final ordinary dividend paid on December 8, 2025. This transaction reflects internal confidence in the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ASHM) stock is a Hold with a £181.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ashmore Group PLC stock, see the GB:ASHM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsShareholder Meetings
Ashmore Group PLC Successfully Passes All AGM Resolutions
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

Ashmore Group PLC announced that all resolutions were passed at its Annual General Meeting, reflecting strong shareholder support. Key resolutions included the approval of the final dividend, re-election of directors, and adoption of a new incentive plan, indicating a stable governance structure and strategic focus on growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ASHM) stock is a Hold with a £165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ashmore Group PLC stock, see the GB:ASHM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025