Valneva (VLA) AI Stock Analysis

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Valneva

(LSE:VLA)

Rating:49Neutral

Price Target:

€3.00

▲(14.50%Upside)

Valneva's overall score reflects significant challenges in achieving profitability and cash flow management despite modest revenue growth and strong regulatory progress in its vaccine programs. The technical analysis suggests mixed trends, with short-term bearish signals and long-term positive trends. Valuation metrics are concerning with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield, highlighting financial struggles. The recent earnings call presents optimism with revenue growth and regulatory achievements but also flags operational losses and product concerns as risks.

Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

Market Cap

€446.25M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)438.62K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.05

Revenue Growth21.64%

EPS Growth-196.47%

CountryFR

Employees713

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength58

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.06

Shares Outstanding170,188,190

10 Day Avg. Volume339,557

30 Day Avg. Volume438,616

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.92

Price to Book (P/B)1.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-44.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€5.70

Price Target Upside117.56% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValneva SE is a specialty vaccine company focused on developing and commercializing prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases. The company engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of vaccines that address illnesses with significant unmet medical needs. Valneva operates in the biotechnology and pharmaceuticals sectors, with core products including vaccines for diseases such as Japanese encephalitis, cholera, and Lyme disease.

How the Company Makes MoneyValneva makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its vaccines. The company generates revenue by selling its approved vaccines directly to healthcare providers, governments, and institutions. Valneva also enters into partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and organizations to co-develop and market vaccines, which can provide additional income through milestone payments, licensing fees, and royalties. Government contracts and funding play a significant role in supporting Valneva's vaccine research and development efforts, contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is also influenced by regulatory approvals, market demand for its vaccines, and its ability to successfully bring new vaccines to market.

Valneva Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -9.28%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Valneva's earnings call demonstrated strong revenue growth and significant regulatory achievements, notably in the chikungunya and Lyme disease vaccine programs. Improved gross margins and a robust cash position were also highlighted. However, concerns over adverse events related to IXCHIQ and a negative operating loss were noted as challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Product sales reached €48.6 million, a 51.2% increase compared to the first quarter of the prior year. IXIARO sales were up 65.5% year-over-year, driven by increased sales to the US military and travel channels.

Regulatory Achievements

Key regulatory achievements for IXCHIQ include marketing authorization in the UK, submission for adolescent label extension, and marketing authorization in Brazil for the chikungunya vaccine.

Pipeline Progress

Valneva initiated the first vaccination in the Phase 2 infant study in Africa for the Shigella vaccine candidate and reported positive Phase 2 pediatric results for IXCHIQ.

Improved Gross Margins

IXIARO's gross margin improved to 72.6%, exceeding pre-COVID levels, while DUKORAL's gross margin reached 52.2%, up from below 40% in the first quarter of last year.

Significant Cash Position

Total cash and cash equivalents were €153 million, with operational cash burn significantly reduced from €28.4 million to €8.1 million compared to the prior year.

Negative Updates

Adverse Events for IXCHIQ

Recent changes to IXCHIQ recommendations were made due to reports of serious adverse events in frail elderly individuals, leading to a precautionary recommendation for use in those 65 and older.

Negative Operating Loss

The operating loss for the first quarter of 2025 was reported at minus €6 million, compared to an operating profit of €68.2 million in the first quarter of the prior year.

Uncertain Impact of Tariffs

Potential impacts from tariffs and political dynamics in the United States are uncertain, with the company monitoring the situation closely.

Company Guidance

During the call, Valneva provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, maintaining their product sales forecast at €170 million to €180 million and total revenues at €180 million to €190 million. The company aims to reduce operational cash burn by 50% for the year, with a target of achieving key milestones with existing cash reserves. Total R&D expenses are projected to be between €90 million and €100 million, offset by grant funding and R&D tax credits. Valneva aims for sustained profitability by 2027, contingent on the successful approval and commercialization of its Lyme disease vaccine. The company's cash position at the end of March 2025 was €153 million, with a significant reduction in cash used in operations from €28.4 million to €8.1 million compared to the previous year, primarily driven by increased sales and effective cost control.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva demonstrates modest revenue growth but faces significant challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The company has made some improvements in gross profit margins and free cash flow, yet struggles with negative net income and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet remains relatively stable with controlled leverage but is affected by consistent net losses. Overall, Valneva needs to address its profitability issues to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

Valneva's income statement reveals fluctuating revenue with a recent slight increase in TTM. The gross profit margin showed improvement to 46.56% in TTM from 41.89% last year, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -43.20% in TTM, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies, although EBITDA margin narrowed slightly. Overall, the company is struggling with profitability despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Valneva's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 in TTM, indicating a balanced approach between debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is 36.34% in TTM, revealing a relatively stable equity position. However, the company's return on equity remains negative at -45.87% in TTM, impacted by continuous net losses. Although leverage is controlled, the lack of profitability affects the overall financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement indicates ongoing cash flow challenges, with negative operating cash flow in TTM. Free cash flow improved slightly from -83.66M in the last year to -60.32M in TTM, but still indicates cash consumption. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58 in TTM, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the company continues to face liquidity pressures.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
186.06M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
	Gross Profit
86.64M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
	EBIT
-60.84M	13.33M	-82.09M	-113.44M	-61.39M	-55.11M
	EBITDA
-55.24M	32.08M	-57.72M	-99.39M	-46.87M	-46.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-80.39M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
152.99M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
	Total Assets
482.24M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
	Total Debt
211.15M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
	Net Debt
58.16M	48.04M	82.74M	-137.05M	-231.99M	-98.94M
	Total Liabilities
306.99M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
	Stockholders Equity
175.25M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-60.32M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
	Operating Cash Flow
-46.93M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.76M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
	Financing Cash Flow
32.56M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.62

Price Trends

50DMA

2.89

Negative

100DMA

3.05

Negative

200DMA

2.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

34.62

Neutral

STOCH

22.29

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.79, below the 50-day MA of 2.89, and below the 200-day MA of 2.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:VLA.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GNFT	55 Neutral	$181.90M	115.75	2.17%	―	134.56%	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.37B	3.26	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
DBV	50 Neutral	€216.80M	―	-199.50%	―	―	-40.10%
VLA	49 Neutral	€446.25M	―	-44.11%	―	21.64%	-196.47%
IVA	46 Neutral	€406.51M	―		―	-47.37%	-26.56%
MEDCL	37 Underperform	€510.91M	―		―	-1.66%	-6.31%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FR:VLA

Valneva

2.62

-0.62

-19.11%

FR:GNFT

Genfit

3.65

-0.27

-6.87%

FR:IVA

Inventiva

2.93

0.34

13.37%

FR:DBV

DBV Technologies

1.59

0.63

66.42%

FR:MEDCL

MedinCell SA

15.45

2.43

18.66%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.