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Valneva SE (FR:VLA)
:VLA
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Valneva
(VLA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
€4.00
▼(-6.10% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, leverage, and negative cash flow). Technicals provide support via an established uptrend, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend. Earnings call tone is mixed: guidance reaffirmation and regulatory milestones are offset by operating losses and IXCHIQ-related uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Stable government-driven vaccine revenue (IXIARO growth)
Growth in IXIARO sales, driven by U.S. Department of Defense and European purchases, underscores a durable revenue stream from institutional contracts. Such government and defense demand provides revenue stability and predictable cash inflows while the company leverages existing commercial infrastructure.
Meaningful clinical and regulatory progress across pipeline
New marketing authorizations and completion of Phase III vaccinations materially derisk the pipeline, expanding addressable markets and shortening commercialization timelines. These milestones increase long-term commercial optionality and improve prospects for sustainable product revenues once approvals and rollouts advance.
Improved near-term financial flexibility via refinancing and cash
A stronger cash buffer and completed debt refinancing reduce short-term liquidity risk and extend runway to fund R&D and commercial launches. This enhanced flexibility supports execution of clinical programs and commercialization plans without immediate dilutive financing, improving strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Large operating loss and negative adjusted EBITDA
Sizable operating losses and negative EBITDA indicate the business is not yet self-sustaining, forcing reliance on external financing or asset sales to fund operations. Persistent deficits can constrain R&D investment pacing and increase refinancing or dilution risk over the medium term.
Weak cash generation (negative operating and free cash flow)
Negative operating and free cash flows reflect difficulty converting revenues into internal funding. Over several quarters this undermines liquidity resilience and increases dependence on capital markets or partnerships to finance clinical programs and commercialization, pressuring strategic execution.
High leverage and regulatory uncertainty for key assets
Elevated leverage limits balance-sheet flexibility if regulatory setbacks materialize. The U.S. IXCHIQ suspension and unclear regulatory/funding path for the Zika candidate create execution risk for key future revenue drivers, potentially delaying monetization while debt obligations remain.
Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€732.41M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth13.48%
EPS Growth-1299.09%
CountryFR
Employees713
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.22
Shares Outstanding172,213,490
10 Day Avg. Volume925,642
30 Day Avg. Volume1,288,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.74
Price to Sales (P/S)1.86
P/FCF Ratio-3.76
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€8.60Price Target Upside101.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionValneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyValneva generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its vaccines. This includes direct sales to healthcare providers and governments, which are often secured through public health contracts and partnerships. Significant revenue has been driven by its contracts with governmental organizations for vaccine supply, such as those for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which included advanced purchase agreements. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through milestone payments and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms for co-development or licensing deals. The company’s ongoing R&D efforts and pipeline of vaccine candidates are expected to contribute to future revenue growth as they progress through clinical trials and regulatory approvals.
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Valneva reported overall revenue growth and made significant strides in regulatory achievements and strategic partnerships. However, the company faced challenges with an operating loss, the suspension of IXCHIQ in the U.S., and decreased sales for some products. The uncertainty around the Zika vaccine candidate also adds to future concerns.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Financial Management
Total revenues reached EUR 127 million at the 9-month time point, a substantial growth of almost 9%. Operating cash burn significantly reduced, resulting in a cash position of more than EUR 140 million. Successfully completed debt refinancing, enhancing financial flexibility.
Product and Regulatory Achievements
Secured additional marketing authorizations for IXCHIQ in the U.K. and Brazil. Completed vaccinations in the VALOR Phase III Lyme disease study. Reported positive data for chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ and the second-generation Zika vaccine candidate, VLA1601.
Strategic Partnerships and Agreements
Announced an exclusive vaccine marketing and distribution agreement for Germany with CSL Seqirus. Found a new partner, Pharmakon, for financial support.
IXIARO Sales Growth
IXIARO sales reached EUR 74.3 million, increasing 12.5% over the prior year, driven by sales to the U.S. Department of Defense and increased sales in some European countries.
Negative Updates
Operating Loss and EBITDA
Valneva reported an operating loss of EUR 53.9 million compared to an operating profit of EUR 34.2 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA reached a negative EUR 37.7 million compared to a positive EUR 48.6 million due to the previous sale of a Priority Review Voucher.
IXCHIQ Sales and FDA Suspension
IXCHIQ's sales reached EUR 7.6 million, but were significantly adversely impacted by the temporary restriction and U.S. license suspension. Awaiting further information from the FDA with no defined timeline for resolution.
DUKORAL Sales Decline
DUKORAL sales decreased from EUR 22.3 million to EUR 21.5 million, affected by foreign currency fluctuation and a distributor shift in Germany.
Uncertain Future for Zika Vaccine Candidate
The development of the Zika vaccine candidate is uncertain due to unclear regulatory pathways and lack of funding opportunities.
Company Guidance
During the Valneva 9 Months 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted. Total revenues reached EUR 127 million, marking a 9% growth compared to the previous year, despite geopolitical and IXCHIQ challenges. Product sales were EUR 119.4 million, with IXIARO contributing EUR 74.3 million, an increase of 12.5% year-over-year, driven by sales to the U.S. Department of Defense and European markets. DUKORAL sales slightly decreased to EUR 21.5 million. The cash position was over EUR 140 million, partly due to EUR 26 million from ATM transactions. Operating loss stood at EUR 53.9 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of negative EUR 37.7 million. Valneva confirmed its 2025 guidance of EUR 155-170 million in product sales and EUR 165-180 million in total revenues.Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Valneva's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability and cash flow issues, despite some revenue growth. High leverage and negative returns on equity further emphasize the need for strategic improvements.Income Statement
Valneva's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 5.52% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous year. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved over time, but the consistent net losses highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. This could pose a risk if not managed properly. Return on equity remains negative, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio suggests a moderate level of equity financing, but the high leverage remains a concern.Cash Flow
Valneva's cash flow statement highlights challenges in cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, underscoring the difficulty in converting earnings into cash flow.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 196.33M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M | 110.32M |
| Gross Profit | 96.25M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M | 56.02M |
| EBITDA | -41.28M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M | -44.76M |
| Net Income | -67.04M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M | -64.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 472.63M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M | 449.16M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 161.31M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M | 204.39M |
| Total Debt | 196.92M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M | 105.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 286.19M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M | 371.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 186.43M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M | 77.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.39M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M | 118.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.90M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M | 137.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.33M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M | -19.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 56.57M | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M | 21.74M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Positive
4.26
Price Trends
3.83
Positive
4.04
Positive
3.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
67.70
Neutral
82.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.79, above the 50-day MA of 3.83, and above the 200-day MA of 3.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:VLA.
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $265.14M | -6.82 | -51.06% | ― | -45.41% | -273.69% | |
53 Neutral | €7.77B | -35.42 | ― | ― | ― | 18.52% | |
52 Neutral | €607.09M | -3.19 | -241.12% | ― | ― | 3.09% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | €732.41M | -6.93 | -55.53% | ― | 13.48% | -1299.09% | |
47 Neutral | €785.83M | -1.09 | ― | ― | -12.84% | -81.94% | |
46 Neutral | €849.55M | -41.94 | ― | ― | 166.31% | 43.80% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
FR:VLA
Valneva
4.26
2.10
97.40%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.