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Valneva
(VLA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
€3.00
▲(42.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, persistent cash burn, and rising leverage). Technicals provide some support via strong recent momentum, but overbought signals increase near-term risk. Valuation is constrained by negative earnings, while the latest earnings call adds some upside optionality from reaffirmed guidance, restructuring benefits, and Lyme vaccine/regulatory catalysts despite a weak H1.
Positive Factors
Late-stage Lyme vaccine opportunity
The Lyme program could materially expand Valneva’s addressable market if approved. Its late-stage status, strong reported efficacy and Pfizer’s regulatory progress provide a credible route to a differentiated commercial product.
Negative Factors
Deepening losses and weak profitability
Large operating and EBITDA losses indicate that current product revenue does not yet cover manufacturing and development costs. Persistent losses reduce financial flexibility and make successful cost reduction and pipeline execution essential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Late-stage Lyme vaccine opportunity
The Lyme program could materially expand Valneva’s addressable market if approved. Its late-stage status, strong reported efficacy and Pfizer’s regulatory progress provide a credible route to a differentiated commercial product.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€568.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth-27.19%
EPS Growth-117.39%
CountryFR
Employees674
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding189,771,240
10 Day Avg. Volume925,642
30 Day Avg. Volume1,288,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.58
P/FCF Ratio-10.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)€151.53M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE (VLA) is a specialty vaccine company focused on developing, manufacturing, and commercializing prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases, with an emphasis on products addressing unmet medical needs. It operates in the biotechnology/...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva makes money primarily through (1) product revenue from the sale of its marketed vaccines and (2) collaboration and funding income tied to partnered development programs, with additional contributions from other operating income sources whe...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: materially weaker H1 2026 financials with significant revenue decline, margin compression and one-off manufacturing charges drove a much larger operating loss and EBITDA deterioration. At the same time, the company strengthened its cash position, implemented a restructuring expected to reduce costs and improve H2 cash flow, and highlighted high-impact pipeline developments — most notably strong clinical data and advancing regulatory progress for the Lyme vaccine (Pfizer EMA filing and potential decisions within 12 months), plus progress on IXCHIQ in Brazil and a promising Shigella program. Given the combination of near-term financial strain and clear strategic and clinical catalysts that could be transformative if successful, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Strong cash position after financing and discipline
Cash at June 30, 2026 was EUR 121.5 million (up from EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 year-end), an increase of EUR 11.9 million (~+10.9%), reflecting proceeds from the recent offering and disciplined cash management.
Negative Updates
Significant year-over-year revenue decline
Total revenues in H1 2026 were EUR 65.8 million versus EUR 97.6 million in H1 2025, a decrease of EUR 31.8 million (~-32.6%), driven largely by lower product sales and the absence of prior-year one-off revenues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash position after financing and discipline
Cash at June 30, 2026 was EUR 121.5 million (up from EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 year-end), an increase of EUR 11.9 million (~+10.9%), reflecting proceeds from the recent offering and disciplined cash management.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva confirmed fiscal 2026 guidance of product sales EUR 135–150 million and total revenues EUR 145–160 million, expects a new U.S. Department of Defense IXIARO contract to be signed in the coming months with sales recorded in H2, and said its commercial business should generate positive cash flow while a June restructuring (EUR 3.2m one‑time cost in H1) will have a positive P&L and cash‑flow impact in H2 and beyond. In H1 the company reported product sales of EUR 64.0m (IXIARO EUR 44.0m, DUKORAL EUR 14.7m, IXCHIQ EUR 4.4m, third‑party EUR 1.0m), total revenues EUR 65.8m, cash EUR 121.5m (vs EUR 109.6m at FY‑end 2025), cash used in operations EUR 13.7m, operating loss EUR 49.9m and adjusted EBITDA loss EUR 40.1m; H1 COGS were EUR 59.5m including non‑recurring IXCHIQ cancellation fees of EUR 9.7m and an inventory impairment of EUR 4.5m. Management expects product‑related gross margin to improve in H2 and reiterated potential to become financially self‑sustainable pending regulatory approval of the Lyme vaccine (company noted 2026; CEO later clarified 2027).Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 142.94M | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 23.44M | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -102.90M | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -157.65M | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 388.28M | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 121.53M | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 210.23M | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 307.15M | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 81.12M | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -83.49M | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -81.15M | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 447.00K | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 40.14M | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Positive
2.11
Price Trends
2.28
Positive
2.40
Positive
3.25
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
85.95
Negative
78.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.31, below the 50-day MA of 2.28, and below the 200-day MA of 3.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:VLA.
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
48 Neutral | €200.36M | -2.79 | -63.53% | ― | 291.43% | 12.24% | |
47 Neutral | €568.94M | -3.41 | -106.22% | ― | -27.19% | -117.39% | |
47 Neutral | €8.96B | -21.93 | -165.19% | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | €743.67M | -3.87 | -119.47% | ― | ― | 41.33% | |
42 Neutral | €78.07M | -1.98 | -96.73% | ― | -96.25% | -197.89% | |
41 Neutral | €108.82K | -5.25 | -27.13% | ― | -44.46% | 100.00% |
* General Sector Average
FR:VLA
Valneva
2.95
-2.09
-41.53%
FR:ABVX
Abivax SA
102.90
44.10
75.00%
FR:DBV
DBV Technologies
2.54
0.83
48.42%
FR:TNG
Transgene
0.73
-0.30
-29.22%
FR:OSE
OSE Immunotherapeutics SA
3.31
-3.37
-50.49%
FR:ALNEV
Neovacs SA
0.76
-7,499.24
-99.99%
Valneva Corporate Events
Pfizer and Valneva Win EMA Review of First Hexavalent Lyme Vaccine
Aug 14, 2026
Pfizer and Valneva have secured European Medicines Agency review of their hexavalent Lyme disease vaccine candidate PF-07307405, targeting six OspA serotypes common in North America and Europe. The application is supported by the Phase 3 VALOR tri...
Valneva Maintains 2026 Guidance as Restructuring Bolsters Cash and Late-Stage Vaccines Advance
Aug 13, 2026
Valneva reported first-half 2026 revenues of €65.8 million, including €64.0 million in product sales, down year-on-year due to the planned wind-down of third-party distribution and phasing effects for key products such as IXIARO and DU...
Valneva Updates Investors on Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Aug 5, 2026
Valneva reported its share and voting rights position as of July 31, 2026, detailing a share capital of 189,771,237 ordinary shares with a par value of €0.15. The company disclosed a total of 204,363,556 theoretical voting rights, including ...
Valneva Sets Date for H1 2026 Results as Vaccine Pipeline Advances
Jul 22, 2026
Valneva SE, the France-headquartered vaccine specialist listed on Nasdaq and Euronext Paris, has built a business around developing, producing and commercializing prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with high unmet medical need. The comp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.