Valneva (VLA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €613.33M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: 13.48%
• EPS Growth: -1299.09%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 713
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 172,213,490
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 925,642
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,288,661
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €8.60
• Price Target Upside: 141.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: €4.00 ▲(12.36% Upside)

Valneva's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While there is some positive momentum from revenue growth and strategic partnerships, these are offset by significant operational and regulatory hurdles.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates a positive trajectory, suggesting effective market penetration and product demand, which can support long-term financial stability.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance market reach and distribution capabilities, potentially leading to increased sales and market share over time.

Product and Regulatory Achievements

Obtaining new marketing authorizations expands the company's market presence and regulatory compliance, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Operating Loss

Sustained operating losses can hinder financial health, limiting the company's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives and affecting long-term profitability.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to finance operations and growth, and could lead to financial distress if not managed.

Uncertain Future for Zika Vaccine

Regulatory uncertainty for key pipeline products can delay market entry and revenue generation, impacting long-term growth prospects and investor confidence.

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Valneva generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its vaccines. This includes direct sales to healthcare providers and governments, which are often secured through public health contracts and partnerships. Significant revenue has been driven by its contracts with governmental organizations for vaccine supply, such as those for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, which included advanced purchase agreements. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through milestone payments and royalties from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms for co-development or licensing deals. The company’s ongoing R&D efforts and pipeline of vaccine candidates are expected to contribute to future revenue growth as they progress through clinical trials and regulatory approvals.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability and cash flow issues, despite some revenue growth. High leverage and negative returns on equity further emphasize the need for strategic improvements.

Income Statement

Valneva's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 5.52% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous year. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved over time, but the consistent net losses highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. This could pose a risk if not managed properly. Return on equity remains negative, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio suggests a moderate level of equity financing, but the high leverage remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Valneva's cash flow statement highlights challenges in cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, underscoring the difficulty in converting earnings into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	196.33M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	96.25M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-41.28M	32.08M	-57.72M	-104.72M	-38.73M	-44.76M
Net Income	-67.04M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	472.63M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	161.31M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	196.92M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	286.19M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	186.43M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.39M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.90M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.33M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	56.57M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.79, below the 50-day MA of 3.92, and above the 200-day MA of 3.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:VLA.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GNFT	60 Neutral	€248.13M	-6.38	-51.06%	―	-45.41%	-273.69%
ABVX	53 Neutral	€7.79B	-35.77	―	―	―	18.52%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
DBV	50 Neutral	€722.49M	-3.80	-241.12%	―	―	3.09%
IVA	47 Neutral	€697.12M	-0.97	―	―	-12.84%	-81.94%
VLA	46 Neutral	€613.33M	-5.80	-55.53%	―	13.48%	-1299.09%
MEDCL	46 Neutral	€839.54M	-41.44	―	―	166.31%	43.80%

Valneva Corporate Events

Valneva’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Valneva’s recent earnings call painted a picture of both optimism and caution. The company celebrated significant revenue growth and a robust cash position, while also acknowledging challenges such as operating losses and safety concerns related to its IXCHIQ vaccine. The overall sentiment was balanced, with a mix of positive achievements and areas needing attention.