Valneva SE (FR:VLA)
:VLA
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Valneva
(VLA)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
€3.00
▲(15.83% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (TTM losses, negative operating/free cash flow, and elevated leverage) and bearish technical trends (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). The earnings call adds some support through liquidity improvements and major upcoming clinical catalysts, but lower 2026 guidance and ongoing margin/idle-cost issues keep risk elevated; valuation provides limited support due to losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Liquidity & Refinancing
A cash balance near EUR110m and completed refinancing materially extends runway and lowers near‑term funding risk. This liquidity buffer combined with improved debt terms gives management time to execute clinical readouts and commercialization efforts without immediate dilutive financing.
Negative Factors
Sustained Losses & Negative Cash Flow
Material operating and net losses with negative EBITDA indicate persistent cash burn that undermines self‑funding. Continued losses increase dependence on external financing, raise dilution risk, and constrain reinvestment capacity absent clear, near‑term pipeline or commercial inflection.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Liquidity & Refinancing
A cash balance near EUR110m and completed refinancing materially extends runway and lowers near‑term funding risk. This liquidity buffer combined with improved debt terms gives management time to execute clinical readouts and commercialization efforts without immediate dilutive financing.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€450.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.62
Revenue Growth13.48%
EPS Growth-1299.09%
CountryFR
Employees713
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.29
Shares Outstanding172,213,490
10 Day Avg. Volume925,642
30 Day Avg. Volume1,288,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.58
P/FCF Ratio-10.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.60Price Target Upside116.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)€165.96M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-der...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva generates revenue primarily through (1) product sales of its commercial vaccines and (2) collaboration-related income tied to partnerships and licensing.
1) Commercial vaccine sales: The core recurring revenue stream comes from selling ma...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: solid revenue base (~EUR 170M), strong cash (nearly EUR 110M), successful debt refinancing and >20% reduction in operating cash burn are notable positives. Equally important are advanced, high‑value pipeline catalysts (Lyme Phase III readout in H1 2026; Shigella Phase II mid‑2026). Offsetting these positives are material operating and net losses (operating loss EUR 82.1M, net loss EUR 115.2M), inventory write‑downs and idle costs, margin impacts from batch failures, and near‑term revenue headwinds from reduced third‑party sales with lower 2026 guidance. Dependence on partner timing (Pfizer) and regulatory uncertainty add execution risk. Overall the call balances meaningful strategic and pipeline upside against significant near‑term financial and operational challenges.Positive Updates
Stable Top-Line and Product Sales
Total revenues exceeded EUR 170 million in 2025, slightly above 2024; total product sales were EUR 157.9 million (down -3.3% y/y; -1.3% at constant currency).
Negative Updates
Significant Operating and Net Losses
Operating loss of EUR 82.1 million in 2025 versus operating profit of EUR 13.3 million in 2024; loss for the period EUR 115.2 million; adjusted EBITDA negative EUR 51.4 million.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Top-Line and Product Sales
Total revenues exceeded EUR 170 million in 2025, slightly above 2024; total product sales were EUR 157.9 million (down -3.3% y/y; -1.3% at constant currency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva guided 2026 total product sales of EUR 145–160 million and total revenues of EUR 155–170 million, reflecting a planned further reduction in third‑party sales offset by continued proprietary product growth; this outlook assumes ongoing DoD supply and is delivered against 2025 results of total revenues >EUR170 million, product sales EUR157.9 million (IXIARO EUR98.4m, DUKORAL EUR31.9m, IXCHIQ EUR8.4m, third‑party sales EUR19.2m), year‑end cash of nearly EUR110 million, a >20% reduction in operating cash burn, R&D spend of EUR85.3 million, operating loss of EUR82.1 million, net loss EUR115.2 million, adjusted EBITDA of -EUR51.4 million, other revenues of EUR16.8 million (including a EUR10 million Pfizer revenue recognition), and 2025 COGS headwinds including an EUR8.5 million inventory write‑off and ~EUR10.8 million of idle costs; management reiterated that positive Phase III Lyme data (top‑line readout expected H1 2026) could be transformational and trigger future commercial milestones (combined $143 million upon first commercial sales).Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Negative
2.59
Price Trends
3.89
Negative
3.92
Negative
3.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.41
Negative
29.21
Positive
18.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.89, below the 50-day MA of 3.89, and below the 200-day MA of 3.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.21 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:VLA.
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
50 Neutral | €214.04M | -3.69 | -634.16% | ― | 111.76% | -22.45% | |
49 Neutral | €71.38M | -1.87 | -52.76% | ― | -96.92% | -175.84% | |
46 Neutral | €450.53M | -5.43 | -58.93% | ― | 13.48% | -1299.09% | |
46 Neutral | €8.21B | -24.91 | ― | ― | ― | 18.52% | |
45 Neutral | €1.01B | -3.62 | -241.12% | ― | ― | 3.09% | |
37 Underperform | €196.17K | ― | ― | ― | -45.39% | 99.99% |
* General Sector Average
FR:VLA
Valneva
2.59
-0.44
-14.66%
FR:ABVX
Abivax SA
104.70
99.46
1898.09%
FR:DBV
DBV Technologies
3.62
2.30
172.89%
FR:TNG
Transgene
0.77
0.16
26.39%
FR:OSE
OSE Immunotherapeutics SA
3.33
-2.57
-43.59%
FR:ALNEV
Neovacs SA
0.01
-18.79
-99.95%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.