Valneva (VLA) AI Stock Analysis

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Valneva

(LSE:VLA)

Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:

€4.00

▲(8.11% Upside)

Valneva's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial challenges, including negative profitability and high leverage. However, positive technical indicators and optimistic earnings guidance provide some support. The valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses.

Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

Market Cap

€649.83M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.20M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.52

Revenue Growth30.21%

EPS Growth-76.83%

CountryFR

Employees713

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength53

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.07

Shares Outstanding171,854,860

10 Day Avg. Volume2,508,821

30 Day Avg. Volume2,200,712

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€8.80

Price Target Upside137.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValneva SE is a specialty vaccine company focused on developing and commercializing innovative vaccines for infectious diseases. Headquartered in France, Valneva operates primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a strong emphasis on areas such as travel medicine and infectious diseases. The company's core products include its Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, and a COVID-19 vaccine candidate, as well as other vaccines targeting diseases like chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis.

How the Company Makes MoneyValneva generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccine products, both commercialized and in development. The company also earns income through partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and government entities, which may include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on sales. Significant partnerships, such as those with the European Union for its COVID-19 vaccine and collaborations with major pharmaceutical firms, contribute to Valneva's earnings by providing funding for research and development, as well as access to larger distribution networks.

Valneva Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Valneva's earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, strong cash position, and positive progress in vaccine development. However, the company also faced challenges including operating losses and safety concerns for IXCHIQ. The highlights and lowlights were relatively balanced.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant Revenue Growth

Valneva achieved total revenues close to EUR 100 million, marking a very significant year-over-year growth. Product sales increased by 33.3% to EUR 91 million compared to EUR 68.3 million in the first half of 2024.

Strong Cash Position

The company reported a cash position of more than EUR 160 million, indicating a strong additional cash influx through ATM transactions and a significant reduction in operating cash burn.

Regulatory and Commercial Achievements

Valneva secured additional marketing authorizations for IXCHIQ in the UK, Brazil, and Europe, and announced an exclusive vaccine marketing and distribution agreement for Germany with CSL Seqirus.

Positive Progress in Vaccine Development

Valneva completed the vaccination in the current VALOR Phase III study for Lyme disease, observed a high sustained 1-year immune response in adolescents for IXCHIQ, and achieved positive Phase III pediatric safety and immunogenicity results for IXCHIQ.

Improved Gross Margin

The gross margin on commercial products, excluding IXCHIQ, increased to 59.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to 47.7% in the prior year.

Negative Updates

Operating Loss

Valneva reported an operating loss of EUR 16.8 million compared to an operating profit of EUR 46.7 million last year, which was due to the sale of a priority review voucher.

Decreased EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2025 was minus EUR 6 million compared to a positive EBITDA of EUR 56.2 million last year, excluding the one-off PRV sale.

Safety Concerns for IXCHIQ

The safety assessment by FDA and EMA showed safety signals during the vaccination campaign in La Réunion, leading to temporary age-related restrictions.

Company Guidance

During the recent call, Valneva provided guidance for 2025, projecting product sales between EUR 170 million and EUR 180 million, with total revenues expected to reach EUR 180 million to EUR 190 million. The company highlighted significant year-over-year growth, noting total revenues nearing EUR 100 million in the first half of 2025, along with a robust cash position of over EUR 160 million. Valneva emphasized its focus on strategic R&D investments, with expected R&D expenses between EUR 90 million and EUR 100 million, partially offset by grants and anticipated tax credits. The company also aims for a reduced operational cash usage by more than 50% year-over-year. Valneva remains optimistic about the future, expecting sustainable profitability following the successful approval and commercialization of its Lyme disease vaccine.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability and cash flow issues, despite some revenue growth. High leverage and negative returns on equity further emphasize the need for strategic improvements.

Income Statement

Neutral

Valneva's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 5.52% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous year. However, the company struggles with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved over time, but the consistent net losses highlight ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage. This could pose a risk if not managed properly. Return on equity remains negative, reflecting the company's struggle to generate returns for shareholders. The equity ratio suggests a moderate level of equity financing, but the high leverage remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Negative

Valneva's cash flow statement highlights challenges in cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, underscoring the difficulty in converting earnings into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	196.33M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	96.25M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-41.28M	32.08M	-57.72M	-99.39M	-46.87M	-46.11M
Net Income	-67.04M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	472.63M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	161.31M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	196.92M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	286.19M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	186.43M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.39M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.90M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.33M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	56.57M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price3.70

Price Trends

50DMA

3.41

Positive

100DMA

3.10

Positive

200DMA

2.90

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Positive

RSI

46.81

Neutral

STOCH

37.75

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.21, above the 50-day MA of 3.41, and above the 200-day MA of 2.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FR:VLA.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLA	52 Neutral	€649.83M	―	-38.01%	―	30.21%	-76.83%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.43	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
GNFTF	―	$198.63M	112.39	2.17%	―	―	―
0RA9	―	€5.50B	―	-148.98%	―	―	―
0QAJ	―	€214.93M	―	-152.03%	―	―	―
0RNK	―	€620.53M	―		―	―	―
MEDCL	53 Neutral	€558.94M	―		―	181.43%	28.76%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FR:VLA

Valneva

3.70

0.61

19.69%

GNFTF

Genfit

3.72

-0.47

-11.22%

GB:0RA9

Abivax SA

77.20

65.92

584.40%

GB:0QAJ

DBV Technologies

1.50

0.73

94.81%

GB:0RNK

Inventiva

4.47

2.19

96.05%

FR:MEDCL

MedinCell SA

16.94

0.14

0.83%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025