Valneva (VLA) AI Stock Analysis

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Valneva

(LSE:VLA)

Rating:51Neutral

Price Target:

€3.00

▲(9.09%Upside)

Valneva's stock score is primarily driven by financial performance challenges, including ongoing losses and cash flow issues, despite some revenue growth and operational improvements. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals with potential overbought conditions. The earnings call provided positive insights on revenue growth and regulatory progress, but profitability concerns remain a significant risk.

Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)

Market Cap

€473.46M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)574.17K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.20

Revenue Growth21.64%

EPS Growth-196.47%

CountryFR

Employees713

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength40

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.06

Shares Outstanding170,188,190

10 Day Avg. Volume810,596

30 Day Avg. Volume574,174

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.92

Price to Book (P/B)1.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-44.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

€8.10

Price Target Upside194.55% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally. Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc. to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

How the Company Makes MoneyValneva generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines. The company's key revenue streams include product sales, which encompass the direct sale of vaccines to governments, healthcare providers, and other entities. Additionally, Valneva engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and health organizations, which can provide milestone and royalty payments. Significant partnerships contribute to its earnings by funding research and development and facilitating wider distribution and commercialization of its vaccine products, thereby expanding market reach and increasing sales.

Valneva Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -4.78%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Valneva's earnings call demonstrated strong revenue growth and significant regulatory achievements, notably in the chikungunya and Lyme disease vaccine programs. Improved gross margins and a robust cash position were also highlighted. However, concerns over adverse events related to IXCHIQ and a negative operating loss were noted as challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

Product sales reached €48.6 million, a 51.2% increase compared to the first quarter of the prior year. IXIARO sales were up 65.5% year-over-year, driven by increased sales to the US military and travel channels.

Regulatory Achievements

Key regulatory achievements for IXCHIQ include marketing authorization in the UK, submission for adolescent label extension, and marketing authorization in Brazil for the chikungunya vaccine.

Pipeline Progress

Valneva initiated the first vaccination in the Phase 2 infant study in Africa for the Shigella vaccine candidate and reported positive Phase 2 pediatric results for IXCHIQ.

Improved Gross Margins

IXIARO's gross margin improved to 72.6%, exceeding pre-COVID levels, while DUKORAL's gross margin reached 52.2%, up from below 40% in the first quarter of last year.

Significant Cash Position

Total cash and cash equivalents were €153 million, with operational cash burn significantly reduced from €28.4 million to €8.1 million compared to the prior year.

Negative Updates

Adverse Events for IXCHIQ

Recent changes to IXCHIQ recommendations were made due to reports of serious adverse events in frail elderly individuals, leading to a precautionary recommendation for use in those 65 and older.

Negative Operating Loss

The operating loss for the first quarter of 2025 was reported at minus €6 million, compared to an operating profit of €68.2 million in the first quarter of the prior year.

Uncertain Impact of Tariffs

Potential impacts from tariffs and political dynamics in the United States are uncertain, with the company monitoring the situation closely.

Company Guidance

During the call, Valneva provided guidance for fiscal year 2025, maintaining their product sales forecast at €170 million to €180 million and total revenues at €180 million to €190 million. The company aims to reduce operational cash burn by 50% for the year, with a target of achieving key milestones with existing cash reserves. Total R&D expenses are projected to be between €90 million and €100 million, offset by grant funding and R&D tax credits. Valneva aims for sustained profitability by 2027, contingent on the successful approval and commercialization of its Lyme disease vaccine. The company's cash position at the end of March 2025 was €153 million, with a significant reduction in cash used in operations from €28.4 million to €8.1 million compared to the previous year, primarily driven by increased sales and effective cost control.

Valneva Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Valneva demonstrates modest revenue growth but faces significant challenges with profitability and cash flow management. The company has made some improvements in gross profit margins and free cash flow, yet struggles with negative net income and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet remains relatively stable with controlled leverage but is affected by consistent net losses. Overall, Valneva needs to address its profitability issues to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

Valneva's income statement reveals fluctuating revenue with a recent slight increase in TTM. The gross profit margin showed improvement to 46.56% in TTM from 41.89% last year, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -43.20% in TTM, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies, although EBITDA margin narrowed slightly. Overall, the company is struggling with profitability despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Valneva's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.20 in TTM, indicating a balanced approach between debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is 36.34% in TTM, revealing a relatively stable equity position. However, the company's return on equity remains negative at -45.87% in TTM, impacted by continuous net losses. Although leverage is controlled, the lack of profitability affects the overall financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement indicates ongoing cash flow challenges, with negative operating cash flow in TTM. Free cash flow improved slightly from -83.66M in the last year to -60.32M in TTM, but still indicates cash consumption. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58 in TTM, suggesting inefficiencies in converting income into cash. Despite improvements in free cash flow, the company continues to face liquidity pressures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	186.06M	169.58M	153.71M	361.30M	348.08M	110.32M
Gross Profit	86.64M	71.04M	52.84M	36.86M	160.16M	56.02M
EBITDA	-55.24M	32.08M	-57.72M	-99.39M	-46.87M	-46.11M
Net Income	-80.39M	-12.25M	-101.43M	-143.28M	-73.42M	-64.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	482.24M	500.03M	460.06M	621.34M	817.35M	449.16M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	152.99M	168.27M	126.08M	289.43M	346.64M	204.39M
Total Debt	211.15M	216.31M	208.82M	152.38M	114.66M	105.45M
Total Liabilities	306.99M	318.78M	331.81M	401.55M	646.77M	371.74M
Stockholders Equity	175.25M	181.25M	128.25M	219.80M	170.58M	77.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-60.32M	-83.66M	-217.06M	-274.67M	-16.27M	118.27M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.93M	-67.22M	-202.74M	-245.34M	76.90M	137.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-10.76M	76.92M	-20.59M	-29.05M	-93.12M	-19.34M
Financing Cash Flow	32.56M	30.68M	63.08M	215.12M	154.50M	21.74M

Valneva Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price2.75

Price Trends

50DMA

2.65

Positive

100DMA

2.92

Negative

200DMA

2.67

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.01

Negative

RSI

64.17

Neutral

STOCH

71.53

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.44, above the 50-day MA of 2.65, and above the 200-day MA of 2.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:VLA.

Valneva Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.39B	>-0.01	-63.86%	2.36%	16.15%	0.36%
VLA	51 Neutral	€473.46M	―	-44.11%	―	21.64%	-196.47%
GNFTF	―	$195.79M	99.09	2.17%	―	―	―
0RA9	―	€502.62M	―	-148.98%	―	―	―
0QAJ	―	€231.84M	―	-199.50%	―	―	―
0RNK	―	€383.58M	―		―	―	―
MEDCL	37 Underperform	€537.19M	―		―	-1.66%	-6.31%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FR:VLA

Valneva

2.75

-0.52

-16.00%

GNFTF

Genfit

3.28

-1.09

-24.94%

GB:0RA9

Abivax SA

8.33

-3.95

-32.17%

GB:0QAJ

DBV Technologies

1.67

0.86

106.17%

GB:0RNK

Inventiva

2.78

0.32

13.01%

FR:MEDCL

MedinCell SA

15.99

0.61

3.97%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 17, 2025