Valneva SE (FR:VLA)
:VLA
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Valneva
(VLA)
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
€2.50
▼(-3.47% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, ongoing cash burn, and meaningful leverage) and a technically weak price trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call updates add both upside (Lyme program progress and aggressive cost cuts) and near-term downside (lowered guidance, margin deterioration, and manufacturing/regulatory risk), while valuation support is limited due to loss-making results and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Lyme vaccine (VLA15) clinical progress
VLA15's Phase III efficacy and Pfizer's planned filings create a durable, high‑value product opportunity. As the only advanced Lyme vaccine candidate with broad serotype coverage, it addresses large unmet markets in North America and Europe and reduces commercial execution risk through Pfizer collaboration.
Negative Factors
Balance sheet leverage
Debt exceeding equity (~1.30) and declining shareholder equity materially reduce financial flexibility. Persistent losses pressure solvency metrics and increase dependence on external financing; this constrains strategic options and raises dilution or refinancing risk if operating performance does not improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Lyme vaccine (VLA15) clinical progress
VLA15's Phase III efficacy and Pfizer's planned filings create a durable, high‑value product opportunity. As the only advanced Lyme vaccine candidate with broad serotype coverage, it addresses large unmet markets in North America and Europe and reduces commercial execution risk through Pfizer collaboration.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€479.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.29M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth3.00%
EPS Growth-1591.48%
CountryFR
Employees713
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.68
Shares Outstanding189,771,240
10 Day Avg. Volume925,642
30 Day Avg. Volume1,288,661
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.58
P/FCF Ratio-10.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€5.60Price Target Upside116.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)€165.65M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-der...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva generates revenue primarily through (1) product sales of its commercial vaccines and (2) collaboration-related income tied to partnerships and licensing.
1) Commercial vaccine sales: The core recurring revenue stream comes from selling ma...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call contained material positive programmatic and strategic news (notably the encouraging Lyme Phase III efficacy with planned regulatory submissions by Pfizer, clear execution on Chikungunya access in Brazil and progress on Shigella) and decisive management actions (cash preservation and a 25%–35% operating expense reduction target). However, near‑term financial performance was weak: revenues and key product sales declined sharply (~37% total revenue decline), gross margins deteriorated substantially (commercial and IXIARO margins down ~17–22 percentage points), and the net loss widened materially. Manufacturing transition costs, one‑offs (failed batches, inventory provisions), FDA observations on Almeida and travel market risks add execution and revenue downside in the near term. Overall, the negative financial trends and operational risks outweigh the programmatic upside at this stage.Positive Updates
Lyme Phase III Efficacy and Regulatory Path
Strong efficacy observed in Phase III: overall vaccine efficacy >70%; first prespecified statistical criterion not met but second prespecified analysis met with 95% CI lower bound above 20. The vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline Year‑over‑Year
Total revenues fell to EUR 30.9 million in Q1 2026 from EUR 49.2 million in Q1 2025, a decline of ~37.2% year‑over‑year; product sales declined to EUR 30.5 million from EUR 48.6 million (also ~‑37.2%).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Lyme Phase III Efficacy and Regulatory Path
Strong efficacy observed in Phase III: overall vaccine efficacy >70%; first prespecified statistical criterion not met but second prespecified analysis met with 95% CI lower bound above 20. The vaccine was well tolerated with no safety concerns; Pfizer is planning submissions to regulatory authorities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva updated FY‑2026 guidance, lowering product sales to EUR 135–150 million and total revenues to EUR 145–160 million, citing emerging adverse travel‑vaccine trends and geopolitical impacts; to preserve cash it launched an April 2026 restructuring targeting a 10–15% global workforce reduction and a 25–35% cut in operating expenses versus 2025. Q1 metrics cited on the call included product sales EUR 30.5m (IXIARO EUR 20.2m, DUKORAL EUR 8.6m, IXCHIQ EUR 1.6m), total revenues EUR 30.9m, operating loss EUR 23.7m and net loss EUR 32.1m, with cash of EUR 105m at March 31 (excludes April reserved‑offering proceeds). Management noted one‑off headwinds in Q1 — cost of goods included ~EUR 5m of idle/unallocated costs, IXIARO gross margin fell to 50.8% (Q1 2025: 72.6%; FY 2025: 59.6%) and commercial product gross margin (ex‑IXCHIQ) was 45.2% (Q1 2025: 62.7%); they expect gross margins to normalize toward 2025 levels and DUKORAL deliveries to resume in Q2.Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Negative
2.59
Price Trends
3.89
Negative
3.92
Negative
3.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.41
Negative
29.21
Positive
18.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.89, below the 50-day MA of 3.89, and below the 200-day MA of 3.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.21 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FR:VLA.
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
50 Neutral | €218.20M | -2.10 | -634.16% | ― | 291.43% | 12.24% | |
49 Neutral | €97.13M | -1.28 | -52.76% | ― | -96.28% | -197.89% | |
46 Neutral | €8.26B | -8.89 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
42 Neutral | €479.81M | -3.22 | -58.93% | ― | 3.00% | -1591.48% | |
42 Neutral | €968.46M | -9.43 | -241.12% | ― | ― | 27.51% | |
37 Underperform | €192.18K | >-0.01 | ― | ― | -44.46% | 99.99% |
* General Sector Average
FR:VLA
Valneva
2.53
-0.36
-12.43%
FR:ABVX
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FR:DBV
DBV Technologies
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53.30%
FR:TNG
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0.79
0.20
33.84%
FR:OSE
OSE Immunotherapeutics SA
4.33
-1.73
-28.55%
FR:ALNEV
Neovacs SA
0.01
-1.47
-99.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.