Coface SA (COFA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €2.24B
• Dividend Yield: 9.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 169.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 2.09%
• EPS Growth: -11.21%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 4,960
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Reinsurance
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 150,179,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 179,066
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 169,903
• PEG Ratio: 0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €18.95
• Price Target Upside: 23.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: €17.50 ▲(13.64% Upside)

Coface SA's stock score is primarily driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The company's profitability and leverage improvements are significant strengths, while the high dividend yield and low P/E ratio enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest a lack of strong momentum, and challenges in revenue growth and cash flow need to be addressed.

Positive Factors

Profitability

High gross profit margins indicate efficient cost management, which supports long-term profitability and competitive positioning in the credit insurance market.

Leverage Management

Improved leverage management enhances financial stability, reducing risk and increasing the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Conversion

A strong cash conversion ratio indicates effective cash management, ensuring liquidity and the ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth poses a challenge to sustaining market position and profitability, potentially impacting long-term business expansion and competitiveness.

Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow may limit the company's ability to invest in growth and manage debt, affecting future financial flexibility and operational capacity.

Net Profit Margin

A decrease in net profit margin suggests potential pressure on profitability, which could impact the company's ability to generate returns and sustain competitive advantage.

Coface SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

COFACE SA, through its subsidiaries, provides credit insurance products and related services for microenterprises, small and medium enterprises, mid-market companies, international corporations, financial institutions, and clients of distribution partners. The company offers credit insurance products to protect companies against default on payment of its trade receivables. It also provides integrated credit management solutions comprising credit insurance, single risk insurance, business information and debt collection services for insured and uninsured businesses; and factoring services, as well as contract and environmental surety, customs and excise, and legal bonds; and payment guarantees. In addition, the company offers business information services through its ICON portal. It operates in Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Bois-Colombes, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Coface generates revenue primarily through its credit insurance policies, which are sold to businesses seeking protection against the risk of non-payment by their customers. The company charges premiums based on the level of coverage and the assessed risk of the insured clients' buyers. Additionally, Coface earns income from surety bonds and debt recovery services, which provide further financial support to clients in managing their trade risks. The company also benefits from partnerships with banks and financial institutions that refer clients for credit insurance and risk assessment services, enhancing its client base and revenue streams.

Coface SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Coface SA demonstrates strong profitability with high gross profit margins and stable EBIT and EBITDA margins. The company has improved its leverage position by reducing the debt-to-equity ratio. However, declining revenue growth and free cash flow pose challenges, potentially impacting future liquidity and growth potential.

Income Statement

Coface SA shows strong gross profit margins consistently above 100%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased in the TTM period to 14.78% from 15.83% in the previous year. Revenue growth has been negative in the TTM period, which is a concern, but the company has maintained a stable EBIT and EBITDA margin, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.80 in the TTM period from 1.09 in the previous year, indicating better leverage management. Return on equity remains stable at around 11.94%, showing consistent profitability. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the improvement in leverage suggests a positive trend in equity management.

Cash Flow

Coface SA's free cash flow has decreased by 19.31% in the TTM period, which is a concern. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 88.25%, indicating good cash conversion. Operating cash flow has decreased significantly, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which is currently zero, suggesting potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.79B	1.65B	1.60B	1.57B	1.28B	1.11B
Gross Profit	1.23B	1.45B	1.40B	1.40B	1.01B	869.79M
EBITDA	383.06M	446.74M	403.60M	397.96M	343.02M	185.14M
Net Income	229.64M	261.07M	240.50M	240.44M	223.82M	82.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.17B	8.08B	7.90B	8.45B	8.04B	7.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	3.22B	2.86B	553.79M	3.48B	3.30B
Total Debt	2.43B	2.39B	659.67M	1.74B	2.79B	2.44B
Total Liabilities	6.02B	5.89B	5.85B	6.49B	5.90B	5.55B
Stockholders Equity	2.15B	2.19B	2.05B	1.34B	2.14B	2.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	175.27M	326.65M	268.82M	416.95M	309.79M	160.46M
Operating Cash Flow	202.41M	353.36M	294.27M	449.19M	326.96M	194.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-53.89M	134.17M	-327.82M	-124.40M	-207.94M	-54.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-252.30M	-490.78M	13.93M	-142.69M	-134.36M	-39.45M

Coface SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:COFA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.96, above the 50-day MA of 15.19, and below the 200-day MA of 15.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:COFA.

Coface SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COFA	70 Outperform	€2.24B	9.75	10.78%	9.22%	2.09%	-11.21%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TKO	61 Neutral	€2.63B	14.51	5.94%	5.14%	12.44%	12.15%
AMUN	60 Neutral	€13.77B	8.17	14.33%	6.35%	18.42%	37.83%
SCR	59 Neutral	€4.85B	5.54	20.25%	6.57%	-2.52%	―