Coface SA (COFA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €2.33B
• Dividend Yield: 9.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 169.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: 2.09%
• EPS Growth: -11.21%
• Country: FR
• Employees: 4,960
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Insurance - Reinsurance
• EPS (TTM): 1.18
• Shares Outstanding: 150,179,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 179,066
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 169,903
• PEG Ratio: -0.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €18.95
• Price Target Upside: 19.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.62
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €1.67B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €17.00 ▲(7.39% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/23/26

The score is primarily supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Financial performance is solid but tempered by weaker 2025 earnings/margins versus prior years, moderate leverage, and softer operating/free cash flow compared with 2024. Technical signals are neutral, with mixed positioning around moving averages and only mild momentum.

Positive Factors

Business model & market position

Coface’s core credit-insurance business provides recurring premium revenue, diversified product lines (insurance, surety, collections) and multinational reach. These structural attributes create sticky client relationships, scale in risk data and underwriting expertise, supporting durable revenue and margins over months.

Top-line momentum

A ~22% revenue acceleration in 2025 demonstrates improving demand for credit-risk protection and expands underwriting scale. Sustained top-line growth helps dilute fixed costs, supports product cross-sell and strengthens premium diversification—factors that can materially improve earnings durability over a multi‑month horizon.

Cash generation coverage

Free cash flow covering a large portion of reported earnings indicates earnings are largely backed by cash, supporting dividend capacity and operational funding. Even with weaker cash flow versus prior year, this coverage level provides a durable buffer for payouts and short-term capital needs.

Negative Factors

Leverage / balance-sheet flexibility

Debt roughly matching equity and volatility in leverage reduce financial flexibility. Elevated leverage constrains reserves and capital management during underwriting cycles, raises refinancing risk and limits optionality for acquisitions or increased claims, which matters across the next several quarters.

Margin & earnings compression

Declining net income and compressed margins point to increased claims or cost pressures, weakening profitability resilience. If underlying underwriting loss drivers persist, sustained margin erosion would reduce ROE and capital generation, impairing long‑term capacity to absorb shocks and fund growth.

Weaker cash conversion trend

A sharp drop in operating cash flow materially reduces liquidity cushions and the company’s ability to self‑fund claims, working capital and investments. Continued weakness would increase reliance on external financing or capital measures, eroding strategic flexibility over the coming quarters.

Coface SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

COFACE SA, through its subsidiaries, provides credit insurance products and related services for microenterprises, small and medium enterprises, mid-market companies, international corporations, financial institutions, and clients of distribution partners. The company offers credit insurance products to protect companies against default on payment of its trade receivables. It also provides integrated credit management solutions comprising credit insurance, single risk insurance, business information and debt collection services for insured and uninsured businesses; and factoring services, as well as contract and environmental surety, customs and excise, and legal bonds; and payment guarantees. In addition, the company offers business information services through its ICON portal. It operates in Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and Africa, North America, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Bois-Colombes, France.

How the Company Makes Money

Coface generates revenue primarily through its credit insurance policies, which are sold to businesses seeking protection against the risk of non-payment by their customers. The company charges premiums based on the level of coverage and the assessed risk of the insured clients' buyers. Additionally, Coface earns income from surety bonds and debt recovery services, which provide further financial support to clients in managing their trade risks. The company also benefits from partnerships with banks and financial institutions that refer clients for credit insurance and risk assessment services, enhancing its client base and revenue streams.

Coface SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth accelerated strongly in 2025 (~+22% YoY) and profitability remains positive (~10% net margin), but net income and margins declined versus 2023–2024. Balance-sheet leverage is moderate-to-elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.09) with some volatility over time, and 2025 operating/free cash flow stepped down versus 2024, reducing comfort around cash conversion stability.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong in 2025 (up ~22% year-over-year) after more modest growth in 2023–2024, showing improving top-line momentum. Profitability remains healthy with a ~10% net margin in 2025, but margins and earnings are down versus 2023–2024 (net income fell from ~€261M in 2024 to ~€222M in 2025), indicating some cost/claims or operating pressure. Overall, the company shows solid profitability, but the recent margin step-down is a key watch item.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt roughly matching equity in 2024–2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.09), which is manageable but reduces balance-sheet flexibility. The leverage profile has also been volatile over the period (notably much lower in 2023 vs. higher in other years), which adds some uncertainty around funding structure stability. Returns on equity are decent (~10–12% in 2024–2025) but below the stronger level seen in 2022, suggesting returns have normalized while leverage remains meaningful.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, but 2025 shows a notable step-down: operating cash flow fell to ~€196M from ~€353M in 2024, and free cash flow declined to ~€160M (down ~8% year-over-year). Free cash flow still covers a large portion of net income in 2025 (~82%), which is supportive, but the weakening cash trend versus the prior year reduces quality-of-earnings comfort. 2024 was materially stronger on cash conversion than 2025.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.90B	1.65B	1.60B	1.57B	1.28B
Gross Profit	1.90B	1.45B	1.40B	1.40B	1.01B
EBITDA	366.34M	446.74M	403.60M	397.96M	343.02M
Net Income	222.00M	261.07M	240.50M	240.44M	223.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.09B	8.08B	7.90B	8.45B	8.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	501.46M	3.22B	2.86B	553.79M	3.48B
Total Debt	2.41B	2.39B	659.67M	1.74B	2.79B
Total Liabilities	5.87B	5.89B	5.85B	6.49B	5.90B
Stockholders Equity	2.21B	2.19B	2.05B	1.34B	2.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	160.45M	326.65M	268.82M	416.95M	309.79M
Operating Cash Flow	196.06M	353.36M	294.27M	449.19M	326.96M
Investing Cash Flow	29.45M	134.17M	-327.82M	-124.40M	-207.94M
Financing Cash Flow	-220.11M	-490.78M	13.93M	-142.69M	-134.36M

Coface SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:COFA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.88, above the 50-day MA of 15.69, and above the 200-day MA of 15.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:COFA.

Coface SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COFA	68 Neutral	€2.33B	10.53	10.78%	9.02%	2.09%	-11.21%
TKO	62 Neutral	€3.26B	24.28	5.94%	5.10%	12.44%	12.15%
FMONC	62 Neutral	€2.47B	302.93	―	―	―	―
AMUN	60 Neutral	€16.68B	10.47	14.33%	6.07%	18.42%	37.83%
SCR	59 Neutral	€5.53B	6.31	20.25%	6.35%	-2.52%	―
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%