First Industrial Realty (FR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.33B
• Dividend Yield: 2.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 9.66%
• EPS Growth: -23.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 151
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Industrial
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 132,524,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 944,135
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,139,588
• PEG Ratio: -2.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 66.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.13
• 1Y Price Target: $64.56
• Price Target Upside: 5.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $750.03M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $67.00 ▲(9.85% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and improving cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook supported by solid leasing metrics and a dividend increase. These positives are tempered by rising leverage, execution risk embedded in 2026 lease-up assumptions, and a valuation that is fair rather than clearly discounted; technicals are neutral-to-mildly positive.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Margins

Sustained multi-year revenue expansion alongside consistently high gross margins demonstrates durable demand for industrial space and disciplined lease economics. High gross margins shield operating profits from rent cycle swings, supporting stable NOI and ability to fund dividends and redevelopment over the medium term.

Improving Cash Generation

Material improvement in operating cash flow and recent positive free cash flow conversion strengthen the company's ability to fund dividends, development capex and debt service internally. Consistent cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets and supports durable capital allocation flexibility.

Strong Leasing Market & Occupancy

Robust market fundamentals—very strong cash rental gains and high occupancy—support sustainable NOI growth and lease-up prospects for new developments. Structural e-commerce and distribution demand underpin long-term tenant demand, improving rent bargaining power and reducing vacancy risk over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Increasing debt and a near-1.0 debt-to-equity ratio raise interest-rate and refinancing sensitivity, constraining financial flexibility. Higher leverage can magnify cash flow volatility impacts, limit acquisition or development capacity if markets tighten, and increase funding costs during stressed periods.

Execution Dependence on Lease-Ups

Material reliance on sizable back-half lease-ups makes near-term FFO and occupancy targets execution-sensitive. Delays or weaker leasing would pressure guided NOI and cash flows, magnifying downside because a large portion of growth is contingent on successful, timely leasing of specific projects.

Rising Concessions & Pre-Lease Risk

Higher tenant improvement allowances and drifting concessions compress cash-on-cash yields for new deals and slow stabilization economics. Moderate pre-leasing rates for the pipeline increase exposure to leasing cycle weakness, raising the risk that new projects underperform yield expectations and extend vacancy periods.

First Industrial Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: FR) is a leading fully integrated owner, operator, and developer of industrial real estate with a track record of providing industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional customers. Across major markets in the United States, our local market experts manage, lease, buy, (re)develop, and sell bulk and regional distribution centers, light industrial, and other industrial facility types. In total, we own and have under development approximately 64.1 million square feet of industrial space as of September 30, 2020.

How the Company Makes Money

First Industrial primarily makes money by leasing industrial properties to tenants and collecting contractual rental income. Its core revenue stream is base rent from long-term leases on warehouse, distribution, and other industrial facilities; these leases often include provisions that shift certain property-level costs (such as operating expenses, taxes, insurance, and maintenance) to tenants through expense reimbursements or similar mechanisms, which can create additional property income. The company also generates earnings through rent escalations (periodic increases built into lease contracts) and by renewing leases at market rates when prior leases expire. In addition to operating income from its existing portfolio, First Industrial can earn returns by developing new industrial properties or redeveloping existing assets and then leasing them up, which can increase net operating income and property values. It may also realize gains (or losses) from selling properties, though this is typically more episodic than recurring rent. As a REIT, it generally distributes a significant portion of taxable income to shareholders as dividends, and it funds growth through a combination of retained cash flow, property sales, debt financing, and equity issuance.

First Industrial Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: strong multi-year revenue growth, consistently high margins, and improving operating cash flow. Offsetting factors are rising leverage and historically uneven free cash flow (despite a strong improvement in 2024–2025) plus some net income volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the period (from $448M in 2020 to $727M in 2025), with a notable rebound after the 2023 decline. Profitability is a clear strength: gross margins remain consistently high (~72%–78%) and operating profitability is solid, supporting healthy net margins. The main watch-out is that net income has been volatile and is down from the 2022 peak ($359M) to 2025 ($247M), suggesting profitability can fluctuate even with revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a sizable equity base ($2.67B in 2025) and assets have expanded to $5.69B, which supports growth. However, leverage has been trending up: total debt increased to $2.57B in 2025 from $2.09B in 2022, and debt relative to equity rose to ~0.96 in 2025 (vs. ~0.84 in 2024). Returns on equity are positive but have moderated versus earlier years (about 9% in 2025 vs. mid-teens in 2022), indicating slightly less efficient profit generation on the capital base.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and improving (to $461M in 2025 from $241M in 2020), providing a strong cash earnings foundation. Free cash flow has been more uneven—negative in 2022 and 2023, then improving materially to $135M in 2024 and $461M in 2025—showing a better recent conversion of cash generation into surplus cash. The key risk is the historical variability in free cash flow, which can matter for funding growth, dividends, and debt management.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	727.08M	669.64M	614.03M	539.93M	476.29M
Gross Profit	164.34M	486.82M	448.37M	396.27M	344.99M
EBITDA	568.83M	557.03M	501.17M	491.37M	465.37M
Net Income	247.44M	287.34M	274.82M	359.13M	271.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.69B	5.26B	5.18B	4.95B	4.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	78.03M	44.51M	43.84M	133.24M	58.59M
Total Debt	2.57B	2.23B	2.25B	2.09B	1.64B
Total Liabilities	2.93B	2.52B	2.54B	2.42B	1.93B
Stockholders Equity	2.67B	2.67B	2.56B	2.46B	2.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	114.89M	134.85M	-59.62M	-111.47M	33.85M
Operating Cash Flow	461.34M	350.42M	302.31M	410.90M	267.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-524.18M	-131.62M	-378.31M	-629.11M	-416.82M
Financing Cash Flow	89.19M	-210.96M	-25.27M	304.50M	8.91M

First Industrial Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 60.99
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.52, above the 50-day MA of 59.73, and above the 200-day MA of 54.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR.

First Industrial Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRNO	75 Outperform	$6.56B	14.93	10.09%	3.38%	21.13%	74.37%
EGP	74 Outperform	$10.13B	36.86	7.48%	3.15%	11.10%	-1.65%
FR	71 Outperform	$8.33B	24.05	9.32%	2.98%	9.66%	-23.17%
STAG	71 Outperform	$7.32B	25.24	7.85%	4.02%	9.62%	31.08%
LXP	68 Neutral	$2.82B	25.58	5.49%	5.33%	6.98%	465.32%
REXR	66 Neutral	$8.07B	42.45	2.44%	4.30%	10.27%	15.25%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%

First Industrial Realty Corporate Events

First Industrial Realty Announces New Director and Buyback

On March 13, 2026, First Industrial Realty Trust’s board approved expanding its board from six to seven members and elected veteran real estate and capital markets executive Frank E. Schmitz as a director, effective June 1, 2026, with his term running until the 2027 annual meeting. Schmitz’s extensive global investment, fundraising and portfolio strategy experience is expected to bolster the REIT’s governance bench as it pursues growth in logistics real estate and deepens engagement with institutional investors.

Also on March 13, 2026, the board authorized a new share repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $250 million of common stock on an opportunistic basis, a move that underscores management’s confidence in the strength of its portfolio and financial position. The discretionary, open-ended repurchase plan, alongside planned investor and analyst market tours in 2026, signals an active effort to enhance shareholder value, manage capital allocation, and showcase the company’s industrial assets to the investment community.

The most recent analyst rating on (FR) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Industrial Realty stock, see the FR Stock Forecast page.

First Industrial Realty Strengthens Capital Structure With Loan Refinancing

On January 22, 2026, First Industrial Realty Trust refinanced its $425 million unsecured term loan, setting an initial maturity of January 22, 2030 with a one-year extension option and interest-only payments at a rate of SOFR plus 85 basis points, while removing a prior 10-basis-point SOFR adjustment. The company also refinanced and upsized a separate term loan from $300 million to $375 million with an initial maturity of January 22, 2029 and two one-year extension options, on the same SOFR plus 85-basis-point, interest-only structure and with the SOFR adjustment similarly eliminated, and amended an additional $200 million unsecured term loan to remove its 10-basis-point SOFR adjustment, collectively strengthening its capital structure and securing longer-term, more cost-effective funding support for its growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (FR) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Industrial Realty stock, see the FR Stock Forecast page.