FB Financial (FBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.65B
• Dividend Yield: 1.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 259.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 10.50%
• EPS Growth: -6.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,490
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 51,757,557
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 310,401
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 259,857
• PEG Ratio: -7.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.43
• 1Y Price Target: $53.71
• Price Target Upside: 5.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $728.52M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $62.00 ▲(21.26% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

FBK scores as a moderate-quality setup: stable financial footing (conservative leverage and ongoing profitability) and a constructive earnings-call outlook (NIM/efficiency targets and capital return) support the score. This is tempered by post-peak financial trends (margin/ROE compression and 2025 revenue decline), mixed near-term technical momentum, and a relatively high P/E with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage & stronger balance sheet

FB Financial's materially lower debt-to-equity (~0.17) and stronger equity base give the bank durable financial flexibility. Improved leverage reduces insolvency risk, supports regulatory ratios and provides room to absorb credit or rate shocks while still funding loans and capital returns over the medium term.

Sustained NIM and attractive new production yields

A near-4% NIM, guidance for stable core margins and high new-loan yields provide a durable earnings engine for a regional bank. Consistent margin guidance and accretion tailwinds support recurring net interest income and make core earnings less dependent on short-term rate moves over the next several quarters.

Consistent capital returns (dividend + buyback)

An 11% dividend increase alongside a meaningful contemporaneous repurchase signals repeatable capital generation and disciplined allocation. Sustained payouts and opportunistic buybacks reflect management confidence and provide a structural framework for returning excess capital to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Top-line weakness and FCF growth erosion

A material revenue decline in 2025 and three consecutive years of falling free-cash-flow growth indicate weakening top-line momentum and reduced scalability. Even with positive FCF levels, persistent negative growth undermines long-term reinvestment capacity and constrains sustainable capital deployment.

Margin and ROE compression vs. cycle highs

Significant step-down in margins and ROE versus earlier cycle highs suggests the franchise faces structural profitability headwinds. Lower sustainable returns reduce internal capital generation, limit reinvestment and make it harder to support both organic growth and shareholder returns without improving operating leverage.

Rising credit and integration/expense noise

A modest uptick in NPAs and past dues, coupled with merger-related distractions and elevated non-run-rate expense items, adds downside risk. If credit trends worsen or integration costs persist, provisions and operating expenses could pressure capital and margin resilience during the next several quarters.

FB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company for FirstBank that provides a suite of commercial and consumer banking services to businesses, professionals, and individuals. The company operates in two segments, Banking and Mortgage. It offers checking, demand, money market, and savings accounts; deposit and lending products and services to corporate, commercial, and consumer customers; and time deposits and certificates of deposits, as well as engages in the mortgage origination business. The company also provides owner-occupied and non-owner-occupied real estate commercial, residential real estate 1-4 family mortgage, multi-family residential, commercial and industrial, construction, land acquisition, residential lines of credit, and land development loans; and consumer and other loans, such as car, boat, and other recreational vehicle loans, as well as manufactured homes without real estate and personal lines of credit. In addition, the company offers mortgage banking services through its bank branch networks in the southeastern United States; an internet delivery channel; and trust, insurance, and investment services, as well as online and mobile banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 82 full-service bank branches and 9 limited-service branches locations throughout Tennessee, North Alabama, Southern Kentucky, and North Georgia; and 23 mortgage offices throughout the southeastern United States. The company was formerly known as First South Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to FB Financial Corporation in 2016. FB Financial Corporation was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

FB Financial generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from interest income, which is earned on loans and other financial products. The company lends to consumers and small to mid-sized businesses, generating interest from these loans. Additionally, FBK earns non-interest income from fees associated with deposit accounts, mortgage origination, and wealth management services. Significant partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers can also enhance revenue through cross-selling opportunities. Moreover, the company’s strategic expansion into new markets and its focus on customer service contribute to its overall earnings growth.

FB Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are stable but past peak: profitability remains positive, leverage is conservative and improving (lower debt-to-equity), and recent operating/free cash flow is positive. Offsetting this, net margins and ROE have stepped down versus 2021–2022, 2025 revenue declined (-11.6%), and free-cash-flow growth has been negative for three straight years (2023–2025).

Income Statement

Profitability is solid but clearly past-cycle highs: net margin fell from ~31% (2021) to ~14% (2025), and operating profitability also stepped down versus 2021–2023 levels. Revenue growth has turned inconsistent, with a sharp decline in 2025 (-11.6%) after modest growth in 2024 (+2.4%). The positive offset is that the company remains profitable throughout the period, with margins still respectable for a regional bank despite the downtrend.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.17 in 2025, improved from ~0.32–0.37 in 2022–2023). Equity has grown meaningfully versus prior years, and returns on equity remain positive (about 6.3% in 2025), though down from stronger levels earlier in the cycle (roughly 9%–13% in 2021–2022). Overall, the balance sheet appears stable with improving leverage, but weakening returns suggest profitability pressure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in recent years, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive from 2021–2025, and free cash flow roughly matching net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~1.0). However, free cash flow growth has been negative in each of the last three years (2023–2025), and operating cash flow has been volatile historically (including a large negative year in 2020 and an unusually high year in 2022), which lowers confidence in consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	877.84M	766.77M	748.98M	596.35M	613.25M
Gross Profit	516.73M	445.74M	475.25M	508.19M	616.62M
EBITDA	150.70M	161.58M	165.13M	172.18M	256.94M
Net Income	122.62M	116.03M	120.22M	124.56M	190.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.30B	13.16B	12.60B	12.85B	12.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.62B	1.74B	1.71B	2.29B	3.35B
Total Debt	273.32M	246.55M	468.35M	494.99M	226.52M
Total Liabilities	14.35B	11.59B	11.15B	11.52B	11.16B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	1.57B	1.45B	1.33B	1.43B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	147.01M	132.25M	190.84M	789.08M	48.78M
Operating Cash Flow	155.86M	138.80M	211.07M	799.71M	54.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.48M	-294.00M	-55.22M	-1.75B	-849.56M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.97M	386.76M	-371.98M	184.10M	1.27B

FB Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.52, below the 50-day MA of 57.31, and below the 200-day MA of 52.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.12 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FBK.

FB Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PRK	73 Outperform	$2.85B	13.59	13.70%	2.96%	6.29%	28.28%
CVBF	72 Outperform	$2.56B	11.63	9.25%	4.00%	-8.43%	3.75%
SBCF	71 Outperform	$2.95B	22.20	5.83%	2.25%	6.83%	23.44%
BKU	69 Neutral	$3.18B	12.64	8.99%	2.71%	-5.44%	45.47%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FBK	64 Neutral	$2.65B	24.15	6.87%	1.34%	10.50%	-6.22%
TOWN	63 Neutral	$3.04B	15.10	7.37%	3.04%	9.48%	12.83%

FB Financial Corporate Events

FB Financial Highlights Non-GAAP Metrics at Investor Conference

On February 12, 2026, FB Financial’s management team presented at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Winter Financial Services Conference, using an investor slide deck that is also available on the company’s website for shareholders and analysts. The accompanying materials emphasize the firm’s use of a broad set of non-GAAP metrics, such as various adjusted earnings and tangible capital measures, which management says better reflect operating performance and facilitate comparison over time and with other banking institutions.

The presentation also reiterates extensive risk disclosures and cautions that any forward-looking statements about strategy, economic conditions, or financial performance are subject to significant uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. By framing its outlook within these risk factors and highlighting its preferred performance metrics, FB Financial aims to shape investor understanding of its current positioning and the lens through which to evaluate its results.

The most recent analyst rating on (FBK) stock is a Hold with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FB Financial stock, see the FBK Stock Forecast page.

FB Financial Announces Planned Chief Accounting Officer Transition

On January 28, 2026, FB Financial Corporation announced that Chief Accounting Officer Jonathan Pennington will resign from FB Financial and its subsidiary FirstBank effective on or about February 26, 2026, to take a position at another institution, with the company emphasizing that his departure does not stem from any disagreements over operations, policies, or accounting and internal control practices. On February 2, 2026, the boards of FB Financial and FirstBank appointed veteran banking executive Lynn Joyce, formerly Chief Financial Officer of Southern States Bancshares prior to its July 2025 acquisition by FB Financial and a senior finance leader at FirstBank thereafter, to succeed Pennington as Chief Accounting Officer effective on or about March 1, 2026, with her compensation increased by about 29% and the company noting there are no special arrangements, family ties, or related-party transactions connected to her appointment, underscoring a planned and orderly leadership transition in a key finance role.

The most recent analyst rating on (FBK) stock is a Hold with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FB Financial stock, see the FBK Stock Forecast page.

FB Financial Reports Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Growth

On January 21, 2026, FB Financial Corporation reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $57.0 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, up sharply from $0.43 in the prior quarter and $0.81 a year earlier, while adjusted diluted EPS increased to $1.16. For full-year 2025, net income was $122.6 million, or $2.45 per diluted share, slightly above 2024 in dollar terms but down marginally on a per-share basis, although adjusted diluted EPS improved to $3.99 from $3.40, reflecting stronger underlying performance. The bank expanded its balance sheet over 2025, with loans held for investment growing to $12.38 billion and deposits to $13.91 billion as of December 31, 2025, alongside an improved net interest margin of 3.98% versus 3.50% a year earlier, and it ended the quarter with higher book and tangible book values per share. Management highlighted solid earnings, balance sheet strength and growth potential, and emphasized that a substantial share repurchase in the quarter was intended to be earnings accretive and signal confidence in the company’s long-term value proposition to shareholders. On January 21, 2026, the company also posted supplemental financial information and an earnings presentation for the fourth quarter on its investor website, ahead of a scheduled January 22, 2026 conference call to discuss the results.

The most recent analyst rating on (FBK) stock is a Buy with a $64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FB Financial stock, see the FBK Stock Forecast page.

FB Financial Subsidiary Joins Federal Reserve System

On December 2, 2025, FirstBank, a subsidiary of FB Financial Corporation, became a member of the Federal Reserve System, with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System taking over as the primary federal regulator from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. This regulatory change will not affect customers’ daily interactions with the bank, and customer deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC as permitted by law.

The most recent analyst rating on (FBK) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FB Financial stock, see the FBK Stock Forecast page.