Exelixis (EXEL) Risk Analysis

Our business is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines for difficult-to-treat cancers. In this regard, we have invested substantial technical, financial and human resources toward drug discovery activities with the goal of identifying new potential product candidates to advance into clinical trials. Notwithstanding this investment, many drug discovery programs that initially show promise will ultimately fail to yield clinical product candidates for multiple reasons. For example, product candidates and preclinical development candidates may, on further study, be shown to have inadequate efficacy, harmful side effects, suboptimal pharmaceutical profiles or other characteristics suggesting that they are unlikely to become commercially viable products. Apart from our drug discovery efforts, our strategy to expand our development pipeline is also dependent on our ability to successfully identify and acquire or in-license relevant investigational oncology assets and technologies. However, the in-licensing and acquisition of investigational oncology assets and technologies is a highly competitive area, and many other companies are pursuing the same or similar investigational oncology assets and technologies to those that we may consider attractive. In particular, larger companies with more capital resources and more extensive clinical development and commercialization capabilities may have a competitive advantage over us. Furthermore, companies that perceive us to be a competitor may be unwilling to assign or license rights to us. We may also be unable to in-license or acquire additional investigational oncology assets and technologies on acceptable terms that would allow us to realize an appropriate return on our investment. Even if we succeed in our efforts to obtain rights to suitable investigational oncology assets and technologies, the competitive business environment may result in higher acquisition or licensing costs, and our investment in these potential product candidates and technologies will remain subject to the inherent risks associated with the development and commercialization of new medicines. In certain circumstances, we may also be reliant on licensors for the continued development of any product candidates and/or technologies that we have in-licensed and such licensors' efforts to safeguard their underlying intellectual property. With respect to acquisitions, we may not be able to integrate the target company successfully into our existing business, maintain the key business relationships of the target company, or retain key personnel of the acquired business. Furthermore, we could assume unknown or contingent liabilities or otherwise incur unanticipated expenses. Any acquisitions or investments made by us also could result in our spending significant amounts of resources, issuing dilutive securities, assuming or incurring significant debt obligations and contingent liabilities, incurring large one-time expenses, and acquiring intangible assets that could result in significant future amortization expense and significant write-offs, any of which could harm our financial condition and results of operations. If our drug discovery efforts, including research collaborations, in-licensing arrangements and other business development activities, do not result in suitable product candidates, our business and prospects for growth could suffer.

We do not have the ability to conduct clinical trials for cabozantinib or for new potential product candidates independently, so we rely on independent third parties for the performance of these trials, such as the U.S. federal government, third-party contract research organizations, medical institutions, clinical investigators and contract laboratories to conduct our clinical trials. If these third parties do not successfully carry out their contractual duties or regulatory obligations or meet expected deadlines, or if the third parties must be replaced or if the quality or accuracy of the data they generate or provide is compromised due to their failure to adhere to our clinical trial or data security protocols or regulatory requirements or for other reasons, our preclinical development activities or clinical trials may be extended, delayed, suspended or terminated, and we may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for or commercialize cabozantinib beyond currently approved indications or obtain regulatory approval for zanzalintinib or our other product candidates. In addition, due to the complexity of our research initiatives, we may be unable to engage with third-party contract research organizations that have the necessary experience and sophistication to help advance our drug discovery efforts, which would impede our ability to identify, develop and commercialize our potential product candidates.

Clinical trials are inherently risky and may reveal that cabozantinib, despite its approval for certain indications, or a new product candidate, such as zanzalintinib, is ineffective or has an unacceptable safety profile with respect to an intended use. Such results may significantly decrease the likelihood of regulatory approval of a product candidate or of an approved product for a new indication. Moreover, the results of preliminary studies do not necessarily predict clinical or commercial success, and late-stage or other potentially label-enabling clinical trials may fail to confirm the results observed in early-stage trials or preliminary studies. Although we have established timelines for manufacturing and clinical development of cabozantinib, zanzalintinib and our other product candidates based on existing knowledge of our compounds in development and industry metrics, we may not be able to meet those timelines. We may experience numerous unforeseen events, during or as a result of clinical investigations, that could delay or prevent commercialization of cabozantinib in new indications or of zanzalintinib or our other new product candidates. These events may include: - lack of acceptable efficacy or a tolerable safety profile;- being placed on clinical hold by the FDA due to safety or effectiveness concerns;- negative or inconclusive clinical trial results that require us to conduct further testing or to abandon projects;- discovery or commercialization by our competitors of other compounds or therapies that demonstrate potentially superior safety or efficacy profiles as compared to cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates;- our inability to identify and maintain a sufficient number of clinical trial sites;- lower-than-anticipated patient registration or enrollment in our clinical testing;- additional complexities posed by clinical trials evaluating cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates in combination with other therapies, including extended timelines to provide for collaboration on clinical development planning, the failure by our collaboration partners to provide us with an adequate and timely supply of product that complies with the applicable quality and regulatory requirements for a combination trial;- reduced staffing or shortages in laboratory supplies and other resources necessary to complete the trials;- replacement of staff at the FDA's OCE that changes OCE's view of the acceptability of the design, conduct, or data produced by our clinical trials;- failure of our third-party contract research organizations or investigators to satisfy their contractual obligations, including deviating from any trial protocols or failing to adhere to appropriate recordkeeping or data integrity requirements; and - withholding of authorization from regulators or institutional review boards to commence or conduct clinical trials or delays, variations, suspensions or terminations of clinical research for various reasons, including noncompliance with regulatory requirements or a determination by these regulators and institutional review boards that participating patients are being exposed to unacceptable health risks. Further, with the passage of the Food and Drug Omnibus Reform Act of 2022 (FDORA), Congress clarified the FDA's authority to conduct inspections by expressly permitting inspection of facilities involved in the preparation, conduct or analysis of clinical and non-clinical studies submitted to the FDA, as well as of other persons holding study records or otherwise involved in the study process, which could delay or add complexity to our clinical trials. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts have had modest impacts on our clinical development operations and may continue to have adverse impacts on the ability of clinical sites and enrolled patients to adhere to trial protocols for in-office clinical visits and other procedures, our ability to supply clinical sites with cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or other study drugs and to pay clinical sites and investigators for work performed, as well as our ability to collect data and conduct site monitoring visits, all of which could undermine the data quality for patients enrolled at these clinical sites. These issues could further impact our anticipated timelines for completing the trials and achieving clinical endpoints, as well as increase our clinical development expenses. If there are further delays in or termination of the clinical testing of cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates due to any of the events described above or otherwise, our expenses could increase and our ability to generate revenues could be impaired, either of which could adversely impact our financial results. Furthermore, we have relied and may in the future rely on collaboration partners to share a significant portion of the expenses associated with our clinical development programs. Should one or all of our collaboration partners decline to support future planned clinical trials, we will be entirely responsible for financing the further development of the cabozantinib franchise, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates and, as a result, the burden of clinical trial expenses we incur associated with our business plans may be materially greater than currently anticipated, which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We may not be able to pursue the further development of the cabozantinib franchise, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates or meet current or future requirements of the FDA or regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions in accordance with our stated timelines or at all. Our planned clinical trials may not begin on time, or at all, may not be completed on schedule, or at all, may not be sufficient for registration of our product candidates or otherwise may not result in an approvable product. The duration and the cost of clinical trials vary significantly due to a number of factors, including, but not limited to: the characteristics of the product candidate under investigation; the number of patients who ultimately participate in the clinical trial; the duration of patient follow-up; the number of clinical sites included in the trial;and the length of time required to enroll eligible patients. Any delay could limit our ability to generate revenues, cause us to incur additional expenses and cause the market price of our common stock to decline significantly.

Our success will depend in part upon our ability to obtain patents and maintain adequate protection of the intellectual property related to our technologies and products. The patent positions of biopharmaceutical companies, including our patent position, are generally uncertain and involve complex legal and factual questions. We will be able to protect our intellectual property rights from unauthorized use by third parties only to the extent that our technologies are covered by valid and enforceable patents or are effectively maintained as trade secrets. We will continue to apply for patents covering our technologies and products as, where and when we deem lawful and appropriate. However, these applications may be challenged or may fail to result in issued patents. Our issued patents have been and may in the future be challenged by third parties as invalid or unenforceable under U.S. or foreign laws, or they may be infringed by third parties, and we are from time to time involved in the defense and enforcement of our patents or other intellectual property rights in a court of law, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office IPR review or reexamination proceeding, foreign opposition proceeding or related legal and administrative proceeding in the U.S. and elsewhere. The costs of defending our patents or enforcing our proprietary rights in post-issuance administrative proceedings and litigation can be substantial and the outcome can be uncertain. An adverse outcome may allow third parties to use our intellectual property without a license and/or allow third parties to introduce generic and other competing products, any of which would negatively impact our business. Third parties may also attempt to invalidate or design around our patents, or assert that they are invalid or otherwise unenforceable, and seek to introduce generic versions of cabozantinib. For example, we received Paragraph IV certification notice letters from MSN, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Teva Pharmaceuticals Development, Inc. and Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc. (individually and collectively referred to as Teva), Cipla, Ltd. and Cipla USA, Inc. (individually and collectively referred to as Cipla) and Sun concerning the respective ANDAs that each had filed with the FDA seeking approval to market their respective generic versions of CABOMETYX tablets. Should MSN, Teva, Cipla, Sun or any other third parties receive FDA approval of an ANDA or a 505(b)(2) NDA with respect to cabozantinib, it is possible that such company or companies could introduce generic versions of our marketed products before our patents expire if they do not infringe our patents or if it is determined that our patents are invalid or unenforceable, and the resulting generic competition could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, because patent applications can take many years to issue, third parties may have pending applications, unknown to us, which may later result in issued patents that cover the production, manufacture, commercialization or use of our product candidates. Our existing patents and any future patents we obtain may not be sufficiently broad to prevent others from practicing our technologies or from developing competing products. They may also be negatively impacted by the decisions of foreign courts, which could limit the protection contemplated by the original regulatory approval and our ability to thwart the development of competing products that might otherwise have been determined to infringe our intellectual property rights. Furthermore, others may independently develop similar or alternative technologies or design around our patents. In addition, our patents may be challenged or invalidated or may fail to provide us with any competitive advantages, if, for example, others were the first to invent or to file patent applications for closely related inventions. The laws of some foreign countries do not protect intellectual property rights to the same extent as the laws of the U.S., and many companies have encountered significant problems in protecting and defending such rights in foreign jurisdictions. Many countries have compulsory licensing laws under which a patent owner may be compelled to grant licenses to third parties and many countries limit the enforceability of patents against government agencies or government contractors. In these countries, the patent owner may have limited remedies, which could materially diminish the value of the patent. Moreover, the Russian Federation has and may further limit protections on patents originating from certain countries (including the U.S.) in response to sanctions relating to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and in general, the legal systems of certain countries, particularly certain developing countries, do not favor the aggressive enforcement of patent and other intellectual property protection, which makes it difficult to stop infringement. We also rely on trade secret protection for some of our confidential and proprietary information, and we are taking security measures to protect our proprietary information and trade secrets, particularly in light of recent instances of data loss and misappropriation of intellectual property in the biopharmaceutical industry. However, these measures may not provide adequate protection, and while we seek to protect our proprietary information by entering into confidentiality agreements with employees, partners and consultants, as well as maintain cybersecurity protocols within our information technology infrastructure, we cannot provide assurance that our proprietary information will not be disclosed, or that we can meaningfully protect our trade secrets. In addition, our competitors may independently develop substantially equivalent proprietary information or may otherwise gain access to our trade secrets.

The trading price of our common stock has been highly volatile, and it may remain highly volatile or fluctuate substantially due to factors such as the following, many of which we cannot control: - the announcement of FDA or other regulatory approval or non-approval, or delays in the FDA or other regulatory review process with respect to cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates, our collaboration partners' product candidates being developed in combination with either cabozantinib, zanzalintinib or our other product candidates, or our competitors' product candidates;- the commercial performance of both CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ and the revenues we generate from those approved products, including royalties paid under our collaboration and license agreements;- adverse or inconclusive results or announcements related to our or our collaboration partners' clinical trials or delays in those clinical trials;- the timing of achievement of our clinical, regulatory, partnering, commercial and other milestones for the cabozantinib franchise, zanzalintinib or any of our other product candidates or programs;- our ability to make future investments in the expansion of our pipeline through drug discovery, including future research collaborations, in-licensing arrangements and other strategic transactions;- our ability to obtain the materials and services, including an adequate product supply for any approved drug product, from our third-party vendors or do so at acceptable prices;- the timing and amount of expenses incurred for clinical development and manufacturing of cabozantinib, zanzalintinib and our other product candidates;- actions taken by regulatory agencies, both in the U.S. and abroad, with respect to cabozantinib or our clinical trials for zanzalintinib or our other product candidates;- unanticipated regulatory actions taken by the FDA as a result of changing FDA standards and practices concerning the review of product candidates, including approvals at earlier stages of clinical development or with lesser developed data sets and expedited reviews;- the announcement of new products or clinical trial data by our competitors;- the announcement of regulatory applications, such as MSN's, Teva's, Cipla's and Sun's respective ANDAs, seeking approval of generic versions of our marketed products;- quarterly variations in our or our competitors' results of operations;- changes in our relationships with our collaboration partners, including the termination or modification of our agreements, or other events or conflicts that may affect our collaboration partners' timing and willingness to develop, or if approved, commercialize our products and product candidates out-licensed to them;- the announcement of an in-licensed product candidate or strategic acquisition;- litigation, including intellectual property infringement and product liability lawsuits, involving us;- changes in earnings estimates or recommendations by securities analysts, or financial guidance from our management team, and any failure to achieve the operating results projected by securities analysts or by our management team;- the entry into new financing arrangements;- developments in the biopharmaceutical industry;- sales of large blocks of our common stock or sales of our common stock by our executive officers, directors and significant stockholders;- the announcement of a repurchase of our common stock;- additions and departures of key personnel or board members;- the disposition of any of our technologies or compounds; and - general market, macroeconomic and political conditions and other factors, including factors unrelated to our operating performance or the operating performance of our competitors. These and other factors could have a material adverse impact on the market price of our common stock. In addition, the stock markets in general, and the markets for biotechnology and pharmaceutical stocks in particular, have historically experienced significant volatility that has often been unrelated or disproportionate to the operating performance of particular companies. Likewise, as a result of significant changes in U.S. or global political and macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, fluctuating interest rates, as well as policies governing foreign trade (including tariffs) and healthcare spending and delivery, or the ongoing hostilities in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the financial markets could continue to experience significant volatility that could also continue to negatively impact the markets for biotechnology and pharmaceutical stocks. These broad market fluctuations have adversely affected and may in the future adversely affect the trading price of our common stock. Excessive volatility may continue for an extended period of time following the date of this report. In the past, following periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities, securities class action litigation has often been initiated. A securities class action suit against us could result in substantial costs and divert the attention of management, which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

As we continue to grow our pipeline of product candidates, our clinical development organization and related functions may grow, which may place significant demands on our management and resources, and our current and planned personnel and operating practices may not be adequate to support such growth. To effectively manage our evolving human capital needs, we must continue to improve existing, and when necessary, implement new facilities, operational and financial systems, and procedures and controls, as well as train and manage our employee base, and there can be no assurance that we can do so effectively or avoid experiencing operating inefficiencies or control deficiencies. We continue to rely on our management personnel to oversee our operations, and retaining and recruiting qualified individuals is difficult. If we are unable to manage our human capital needs effectively, or if we are unsuccessful in retaining or recruiting qualified management personnel, there could be a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

The biopharmaceutical industry is competitive and characterized by constant technological change and diverse offerings of products, particularly in the area of oncology therapies. Many of our competitors have greater capital resources, larger research and development staff and facilities, deeper organizational regulatory experience and more extensive product manufacturing and commercial capabilities than we do, which may afford them a competitive advantage. Further, our competitors may be more effective at in-licensing and developing new commercial products that could render our products, and those of our collaboration partners, obsolete or noncompetitive. We face, and will continue to face, intense competition from biopharmaceutical companies, as well as academic research institutions, clinical reference laboratories and government agencies that are pursuing scientific and clinical research activities similar to ours. Furthermore, the specific indications for which CABOMETYX is currently or may be approved, based on the results from clinical trials currently evaluating cabozantinib, are highly competitive. Several novel therapies and combinations of therapies have been approved, are in advanced stages of clinical development or are under expedited regulatory review in these indications, and these other therapies are currently competing or are expected to compete with CABOMETYX, or the FDA may update their labeling to add accepted indications that compete with CABOMETYX. Even if our current and future clinical trials produce positive results sufficient to obtain marketing approval by the FDA and other global regulatory authorities, it is uncertain whether physicians will choose to prescribe regimens containing our products instead of competing products and product combinations in approved indications.