EVgo (EVGO) AI Stock Analysis

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EVgo

(NASDAQ:EVGO)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:49Neutral

Price Target:

$2.00

▲(3.63% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance—continued losses and significant cash burn despite improving gross profitability—and bearish technical conditions. These are partly offset by a constructive earnings call (operational momentum and EBITDA improvement) and a healthier 2025 balance-sheet position, while valuation is difficult to assess due to ongoing losses and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Network scale and deployment growth

Rapid stall additions and a 5,100-stall base create durable scale benefits: larger networks attract more drivers, improve utilization through density, lower average site costs, and raise bargaining power with hosts and automakers, supporting lasting revenue and operating leverage.

Improving unit economics and charging margins

Material margin expansion and better per-store cash flow (top 15% stores >$65k annualized) indicate the core charging business is moving toward sustainable profitability. Higher gross margins imply durable ability to cover fixed costs as network scales and improve long-term profitability potential.

Strategic partnerships and competitive positioning

Deep OEM, retail, and mobility partnerships and a top-three CPO position create structural advantages for customer access, site placement, and brand visibility. These relationships support recurring network usage, expansion opportunities, and defensive moat versus smaller competitors.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow

Ongoing negative OCF and large negative free cash flow mean the business still consumes capital to scale. This structural cash burn requires sustained external funding or non-dilutive financing until operations consistently convert revenue growth into positive operating cash flow.

Company remains loss-making at the net level

Despite margin progress, chronic operating and net losses show profitability has not yet been secured. Continued negative net income limits internal capital generation, raises reliance on external finance, and increases execution pressure to sustain growth while moving to durable profitability.

Guidance uncertainty and capital intensity

Wide EBITDA guidance and heavy H2 deployment weighting signal throughput and timing sensitivity. High near-term CapEx and elevated G&A to fund growth heighten execution and funding risk — structural issues that could strain returns if deployments or throughput underperform expectations.

EVgo (EVGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$641.82M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)3.98M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.58

Revenue Growth39.21%

EPS Growth9.08%

CountryUS

Employees329

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustrySpecialty Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.04

Shares Outstanding140,283,540

10 Day Avg. Volume5,203,818

30 Day Avg. Volume3,979,311

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.38

Price to Book (P/B)1.01

Price to Sales (P/S)1.01

P/FCF Ratio-3.12

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.56

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.40

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-17.09

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.94

Price Target Upside155.96% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering10

EPS Forecast (FY)-0.42

Revenue Forecast (FY)$445.65M

EVgo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEVgo, Inc. owns and operates a direct current fast charging network in the United States. The company offers electricity directly to drivers, who access its publicly available networked chargers; original equipment manufacturer charging and related services; fleet and rideshare public charging services; and charging as a service and fleet dedicated charging services. It also provides ancillary services, such as customization of digital applications, charging data integration, loyalty programs, access to chargers behind parking lot, or garage, pay gates and pilots microtargeted advertising, and charging reservations; and maintenance and development and project management services through eXtendTM, including electric vehicle supply equipment installation, networking, and operations. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyEVgo makes money primarily by selling EV charging and related services tied to its public fast-charging network and partner programs. Key revenue streams include: (1) Charging revenue: EVgo earns fees when drivers charge at EVgo-owned/operated stations. Pricing is generally usage-based (e.g., per kWh where permitted, or per minute/session depending on local regulations), and may also include subscription or membership-style plans in some markets; if plan details are not publicly disclosed for a given period, null. (2) Network access and partner revenues: EVgo participates in arrangements where EV drivers access charging through automaker, fleet, or mobility-partner programs (often via roaming or branded charging offers). In these cases, EVgo is paid based on charging sessions and/or contracted commercial terms; specific per-partner terms not publicly disclosed are null. (3) Infrastructure and services revenue: EVgo can generate revenue from designing, deploying, operating, or maintaining charging infrastructure for commercial customers (including fleet-focused deployments) and from associated software/network services; the exact product packaging and customer-by-customer economics are not fully public, so granular unit economics are null. (4) Credits/incentives: EVgo may recognize revenue related to environmental credits (e.g., low-carbon fuel or similar programs) and government incentives where applicable. The availability, magnitude, and accounting treatment can vary by jurisdiction and period; if program-specific amounts are not disclosed, null. Significant factors influencing earnings include utilization (charging volume), electricity and demand charges, site host and landlord agreements, and partnerships with automakers, fleets, and retail site hosts that can drive traffic to chargers and expand network footprint.

EVgo Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Network Throughput

Network Throughput
Measures the total energy dispensed across the network, indicating the level of usage and demand for EVgo's charging services, which can signal growth in electric vehicle adoption and market penetration.

Chart InsightsEVgo's network throughput has seen a remarkable upward trajectory, reflecting strong customer growth and increased network usage. The latest earnings call highlights a 37% year-over-year revenue increase and record stall deployment, underscoring operational improvements. However, challenges such as timing shifts in stall deployment and charger performance issues could impact future throughput growth. The company's strategic focus on expanding NACS connectors and achieving breakeven adjusted EBITDA by Q4 2025 suggests a positive outlook, despite these hurdles.

Data provided by:

The Fly

EVgo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call emphasizes substantial operational progress and strong growth: record deployments, significant revenue and throughput growth, improved unit economics, and the milestone of adjusted EBITDA breakeven for 2025. Management outlines an aggressive build and technology rollout plan (NACS connectors, next-gen charging architecture) and is investing in G&A to accelerate future returns. Offsetting these positives are a wide 2026 EBITDA guidance range driven by throughput and timing sensitivity, reliance on a one-time ancillary contract buyout in 2025 results, near-term CapEx and G&A increases, and early-stage performance for NACS throughput. Overall, the positives around demand, utilization, partnerships, and profitability momentum materially outweigh the near-term execution and timing risks discussed.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Adjusted EBITDA Breakeven and Profitability Momentum

Reached adjusted EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2025; full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA was positive at $12,000,000 (a $44,000,000 improvement vs. 2024). Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $25,000,000 (a $33,000,000 improvement vs. prior-year quarter); management noted Q4 positivity remained after excluding a $24,000,000 ancillary contract buyout.

Strong Revenue Growth

Total revenue for FY2025 was $384,000,000, up 50% year-over-year. Q4 2025 revenue was $118,000,000, up 75% year-over-year. Charging network revenue for FY2025 was $218,000,000, up 40% YoY.

Network Usage and Throughput Expansion

Total public-network energy dispensed was 366 GWh in 2025, up 32% YoY; Q4 throughput was 99 GWh, up 18% YoY. Utilization in Q4 was 24%, ahead of the top-three average and up ~4 percentage points since Q1 2024 (while many subscale CPOs declined).

Rapid Network Deployment

Ended 2025 with ~5,100 stalls in operation after adding ~1,200 new stalls in 2025, including 500 stalls in Q4 (company's largest quarterly deployment). Guidance for 2026 calls for 1,400–1,650 total stall deployments and 1,050–1,250 new public/dedicated stalls (majority in H2).

Unit Economics and High-Performing Stores

Annualized cash flow per store in Q4 was ~$21,000 for the full network and over $65,000 for the top 15% of stalls (top 15% implies paybacks as fast as 1–2 years). Charging network gross margin expanded materially (charging gross profit margin rose into the upper thirties over recent years).

Charging Hardware and Technology Progress

Majority of network now 350 kW+ chargers (over 60% of the network). Pilot deployment of ~100 NACS (MAX) connectors in 2025 performed well; plan to add 400+ more NACS connectors in 2026 to expand addressable market (management reports MAX throughput is growing).

Strategic Partnerships and Competitive Position

Strong OEM, rideshare and retail partnerships (expanded Kroger partnership; discussions to expand partnership with Uber). Network described as the third largest and second fastest-growing U.S. CPO with 1.6 million customers and high utilization, supporting a claimed durable competitive moat.

Balance Sheet and Financing

Access to non-dilutive financing including DOE loan funding ($41,000,000 received in Oct 2025). As of 12/31/2025, commercial bank and DOE loan balances were $66,000,000 and $141,000,000 respectively; management emphasized sufficient liquidity to fund growth.

Operating Leverage and Margin Targets

Charging network gross profit increased significantly in 2025 (charging gross profit $86,000,000 and margin 39%, up 46% and 170 bps YoY). Company targets charging-network profits CAGR of 50%–60% and adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 105%–130% over the next four years, with long-term adjusted EBITDA margins goal of 25%–30%.

Negative Updates

Guidance Uncertainty and Wide EBITDA Range for 2026

2026 guidance shows total revenue $410,000,000–$470,000,000 but adjusted EBITDA range of negative $20,000,000 to positive $20,000,000, reflecting meaningful sensitivity to throughput, deployment timing, and H2-weighted ramp (two-thirds of 2026 deployments expected in H2). Q1/Q2 2026 expected to be EBITDA negative.

Reliance on One-Time Ancillary Benefit in 2025 Results

Ancillary revenues in Q4 2025 (~$31,000,000) and FY2025 ($49,000,000) were materially boosted by a $26,000,000 contract buyout from a former AV partner; management noted part of 2025 profitability relied on non-charging lines and this buyout was a one-time benefit.

NACS (MAX) Throughput Below CCS Initially

While NACS deployments are accelerating (100 in 2025, 400+ planned in 2026), throughput per NACS stall is currently lower than comparable CCS stalls at the same site; management expects throughput to rise over time via customer engagement but near-term performance lags CCS.

Increasing CapEx and Net CapEx per Stall

Full-year net capital spending for 2025 was $76,000,000, a 64% increase YoY. 2025 vintage net CapEx per stall ~ $70,000 (a slight increase vs 2024 vintage), and 61% of CapEx was spent in Q4, concentrating cash outflows.

Higher G&A and Near-Term Investment Drag

Adjusted G&A for 2026 guided to $150,000,000–$155,000,000 (~35% of revenue), up ~19% YoY at midpoint and intended to support accelerated deployment—management acknowledged these near-term investments will depress early-year profitability.

Concentration and Market Risk

Management highlighted demand concentration among the top three CPOs and noted industry VIO and EV sales growth forecasts have been volatile; slower-than-expected EV adoption or VIO growth could pressure returns and deployment cadence despite the company’s discipline.

Dependence on External Funding and Execution Risks

Although management emphasizes non-dilutive financing, additional borrowing occurred (e.g., $6,000,000 under commercial facility in Dec 2025). Rapid scaling, hardware rollouts, and software upgrades all present execution risk and require continued capital and operational bandwidth.

Company Guidance

Guidance for 2026 calls for accelerated build and a wide but clear financial range: EVgo expects to deploy 1,400–1,650 total stalls (including 1,050–1,250 new public and dedicated stalls, with roughly two‑thirds coming live in H2), roll out 400+ MAX connectors, and operationalize 350–400 Extend stalls; full‑year revenue is forecast at $410 million–$470 million with charging revenue ~70% of the mix, adjusted EBITDA guidance of negative $20 million to positive $20 million (with second‑half annualized adjusted EBITDA of up to $40 million), adjusted G&A of $150 million–$155 million (~35% of revenue), and gross capital spending in the high $100 millions up to approaching $200 million (net offsets ~17%, ~two‑thirds of capex for deployments); management emphasizes strong unit returns (target cash‑on‑cash paybacks 3–5 years, top 15% stores 1–2 years) and notes throughput sensitivity (roughly 2.5 GWh of retail throughput ≈ $1 million of adjusted EBITDA) and significant second‑half weighting as new stalls ramp.

EVgo Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth and gross profit improvement are meaningful, and equity turned positive in 2025, but the company remains unprofitable (negative EBIT/net income) with persistent negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow, implying ongoing funding needs.

Income Statement

Negative

EVgo is showing strong top-line momentum, with revenue rising from $13.0M (2020) to $384.1M (2025), including ~15.3% growth in 2025. Profitability is improving but remains weak: gross profit turned positive and expanded to $80.8M in 2025 (vs. negative gross profit in 2020–2022), and operating losses have narrowed versus 2022–2023 levels. However, the company is still loss-making with negative EBIT and negative net income in each of the last four annual periods provided (2022–2025), indicating the business has not yet reached sustainable profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Leverage appears manageable on an absolute basis, with total debt of $106.9M against total assets of $964.8M in 2025. The key swing factor is equity: stockholders’ equity was negative from 2021–2024 but turned positive to $385.9M in 2025, signaling a materially improved capital position versus prior years. That said, the history of negative equity increases financial risk and highlights reliance on external capital while the company remains unprofitable.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash generation remains a major pressure point. Operating cash flow is still negative in every year shown (e.g., -$7.7M in 2025), and free cash flow is deeply negative, worsening to -$124.4M in 2025 after -$102.0M in 2024 (and even larger deficits in 2022–2023). While revenue and gross profit are improving, the business is still consuming cash, implying continued funding needs until operating performance and capital spending intensity improve.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	384.09M	256.82M	160.95M	54.59M	22.21M
Gross Profit	80.78M	29.37M	9.71M	-5.65M	-6.83M
EBITDA	-34.98M	-65.78M	-101.45M	-70.28M	-31.93M
Net Income	-41.57M	-44.33M	-42.43M	-27.57M	-5.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	964.83M	803.76M	806.61M	729.72M	746.32M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	151.00M	117.27M	208.67M	246.19M	484.88M
Total Debt	106.89M	90.37M	68.00M	50.65M	0.00
Total Liabilities	578.89M	360.03M	266.24M	212.60M	158.40M
Stockholders Equity	385.94M	-256.11M	-160.59M	-358.10M	-1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.44M	-102.04M	-195.95M	-259.05M	-94.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.73M	-7.26M	-37.05M	-58.79M	-29.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-116.68M	-94.47M	-143.31M	-199.71M	-87.77M
Financing Cash Flow	214.65M	13.09M	143.02M	19.81M	594.63M

EVgo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price1.93

Price Trends

50DMA

2.79

Negative

100DMA

3.04

Negative

200DMA

3.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.24

Positive

RSI

30.26

Neutral

STOCH

15.17

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.41, below the 50-day MA of 2.79, and below the 200-day MA of 3.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.17 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EVGO.

EVgo Risk Analysis

EVgo disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. EVgo reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

EVgo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
EVGO	49 Neutral	$641.82M	-9.34	53.80%	―	39.21%	9.08%
NAAS	46 Neutral	$2.16M	0.73	―	―	-13.78%	38.67%
CHPT	45 Neutral	$127.73M	-0.64	-353.75%	―	-6.32%	28.82%
NVVE	41 Neutral	$1.17M	-3.25	-3734.39%	―	-9.58%	86.27%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

EVGO

EVgo

2.05

-0.70

-25.45%

NAAS

NaaS Technology

2.51

-12.27

-83.01%

CHPT

ChargePoint Holdings

5.40

-7.83

-59.18%

NVVE

Nuvve Holding

0.79

-56.81

-98.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 06, 2026