Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €1.48B
• Dividend Yield: 4.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 188.01K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 10.40%
• EPS Growth: 62.70%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 152,384
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 545,026,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 152,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 188,011
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €3.40
• Price Target Upside: 24.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €5.18B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: €2.50 ▼(-8.76% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held back primarily by high and rising leverage and only moderate cash support relative to debt, despite stable operating performance. Technicals are broadly neutral. Valuation is a relative positive due to a reasonable P/E and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified security services

A multi-segment business model spanning cash management, electronic security and cybersecurity provides structural revenue diversification across physical and digital security needs. This reduces single-market cyclicality and supports durable cross-sell opportunities with corporate clients over the medium term.

Improving free cash flow

Material improvement in free cash flow (nearly +97% TTM) signals stronger internal cash generation capacity. Sustained FCF growth enhances ability to fund operations, invest in technology or reduce leverage, improving long-term financial resilience if the trend persists.

Scale and established track record

A long operating history and sizable workforce support established client relationships, operational scale and bidding capability for large contracts. Scale creates barriers to entry in logistics-heavy services like armored transport and monitoring, aiding durable competitive position.

Negative Factors

High and rising leverage

Significantly elevated and increasing debt-to-equity heightens financial risk and interest expense sensitivity. Persistent high leverage constrains strategic flexibility, limits capacity for M&A or capex without refinancing, and increases downside vulnerability to earnings shocks over months.

Weak debt coverage by cash flow

Operating cash flow covering only ~14% of total debt indicates limited ability to service and reduce leverage from operations alone. This low coverage reduces room for sustained deleveraging and increases reliance on refinancing or non-operating measures, raising medium-term solvency risk.

Low margins & slowing momentum

Thin operating and net margins leave little buffer against cost swings or contract pressure. Combined with a sharp slowdown in TTM revenue momentum, profitability is sensitive to cyclical or one-off impacts, making earnings and cash generation less predictable over the medium term.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. The company operates through Security, Cash, Cybersecurity, Alarms, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment offers guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions. The Cash segment engages in the transportation, storage, safekeeping, counting, and classification of coins and bank notes, deeds, securities, and other items that require special protection due to their economic value or associated risk. The Alarms segment installs and maintains home alarm systems, as well as provides alarm monitoring services for families and businesses. The Cybersecurity segment offers managed detection and response services, managed security services, cyber intelligence services, readteam services, management, risk and compliance, and integration of cybersecurity technology. The AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segment provides business process outsourcing services to improve operational management through redesign, automation, and digital transformation in financial and insurance companies. It operates in Germany, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Australia, China, the United States, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. is a subsidiary of Gubel, S.L.

How the Company Makes Money

Prosegur generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from its cash management services, which include the transportation and handling of cash and valuables for businesses and financial institutions. Additionally, the electronic security segment, which encompasses the installation and monitoring of alarm systems, video surveillance, and access control, contributes significantly to its earnings. Prosegur also derives income from its cybersecurity services, addressing the increasing demand for digital security solutions. The company engages in partnerships with technology firms to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, while its robust presence in Latin America and Europe provides a diverse customer base that supports its financial growth.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating performance is steady but low-margin (TTM EBIT margin ~6.4%, net margin ~2.2%) with slowing TTM revenue momentum. The main drag is a stretched balance sheet with high and rising leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~3.43). Free cash flow improved, but cash conversion weakened (FCF ~31% of net income) and operating cash flow covers a small portion of debt (~0.14), limiting flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over the medium term (2021–2024), but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp decline in growth, signaling slowing momentum. Profitability is steady but thin: TTM operating profitability is modest (EBIT margin ~6.4%; EBITDA margin ~10.9%) and the net margin remains low (~2.2%), despite improvement versus 2021–2024. A notable weakness is the large drop from 2020’s unusually high profitability, suggesting results can be volatile and sensitive to one-offs or cyclical factors.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint. Debt levels are high relative to equity, with debt-to-equity rising to ~3.43 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~2.41 in 2024, indicating a weaker capital structure and higher financial risk. Equity has not grown consistently enough to offset debt, and while return on equity improved to ~14.1% in TTM, that return is likely amplified by leverage rather than pure operating strength. Overall, the balance sheet looks stretched compared with prior years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and improving: free cash flow nearly doubled in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+97% growth) and operating cash flow is stable versus 2024. However, cash flow quality is a concern—free cash flow covers only ~31% of net income in TTM (down from ~45% in 2024), suggesting earnings are not translating into cash as effectively. In addition, operating cash flow is a relatively small fraction of total debt (TTM coverage ~0.14), which limits financial flexibility given elevated leverage.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.93B	4.91B	4.31B	4.17B	3.50B
Gross Profit	1.00B	1.23B	874.15M	992.24M	808.21M
EBITDA	543.70M	507.32M	417.46M	451.15M	364.17M
Net Income	119.32M	78.08M	65.54M	64.68M	40.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.91B	4.63B	4.04B	4.83B	3.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.18B	700.01M	440.45M	1.18B	585.90M
Total Debt	2.72B	1.96B	1.82B	2.54B	1.78B
Total Liabilities	4.11B	3.74B	3.33B	4.04B	3.11B
Stockholders Equity	720.54M	811.01M	681.46M	756.11M	692.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	242.46M	158.17M	139.41M	139.76M	186.17M
Operating Cash Flow	377.24M	352.50M	293.20M	307.57M	330.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-209.62M	-169.00M	-185.09M	-145.45M	-25.70M
Financing Cash Flow	338.26M	103.42M	-791.54M	529.79M	-462.24M

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:PSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.77, above the 50-day MA of 2.72, and above the 200-day MA of 2.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:PSG.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FCC	70 Outperform	€5.09B	35.33	5.28%	4.49%	5.00%	-64.19%
ENO	67 Neutral	€2.34B	18.70	-6.79%	13.00%	11.61%	-212.68%
ACS	65 Neutral	€27.47B	22.99	19.75%	2.38%	25.47%	7.63%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SCYR	53 Neutral	€3.32B	32.80	10.80%	5.28%	2.03%	-32.59%
OHLA	52 Neutral	€557.81M	297.92	-6.41%	―	1.39%	72.34%
PSG	50 Neutral	€1.48B	11.61	14.39%	4.98%	10.40%	62.70%