Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €1.51B
• Dividend Yield: 4.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 188.01K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 10.40%
• EPS Growth: 62.70%
• Country: ES
• Employees: 152,384
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 545,026,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 152,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 188,011
• PEG Ratio: 0.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €3.40
• Price Target Upside: 20.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: €2.50 ▼(-11.66% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by high leverage, weakening cash conversion, and the sharp TTM revenue decline, which increase financial and operating sensitivity. Offsetting factors include moderate positive technical momentum and a supportive valuation profile with a solid dividend yield and reasonable P/E.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Strong free cash flow growth indicates robust cash generation capabilities, enhancing financial flexibility and supporting future investments.

Gross Profit Margins

High gross profit margins reflect efficient cost management, allowing for competitive pricing and potential reinvestment into business growth.

Market Position

As a global leader in security services, Prosegur benefits from a strong market position, enabling it to leverage scale and expand its client base.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue growth poses a risk to long-term sustainability, potentially impacting market share and profitability if not addressed.

High Leverage

Significant leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting strategic flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Low Net Profit Margin

A low net profit margin indicates challenges in converting revenue into profit, which could affect long-term profitability and shareholder returns.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. The company operates through Security, Cash, Cybersecurity, Alarms, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment offers guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions. The Cash segment engages in the transportation, storage, safekeeping, counting, and classification of coins and bank notes, deeds, securities, and other items that require special protection due to their economic value or associated risk. The Alarms segment installs and maintains home alarm systems, as well as provides alarm monitoring services for families and businesses. The Cybersecurity segment offers managed detection and response services, managed security services, cyber intelligence services, readteam services, management, risk and compliance, and integration of cybersecurity technology. The AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segment provides business process outsourcing services to improve operational management through redesign, automation, and digital transformation in financial and insurance companies. It operates in Germany, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Australia, China, the United States, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. is a subsidiary of Gubel, S.L.

How the Company Makes Money

Prosegur generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from its cash management services, which include the transportation and handling of cash and valuables for businesses and financial institutions. Additionally, the electronic security segment, which encompasses the installation and monitoring of alarm systems, video surveillance, and access control, contributes significantly to its earnings. Prosegur also derives income from its cybersecurity services, addressing the increasing demand for digital security solutions. The company engages in partnerships with technology firms to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, while its robust presence in Latin America and Europe provides a diverse customer base that supports its financial growth.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating profitability is stable with some margin improvement and positive free cash flow, but the overall profile is constrained by very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~3.4x TTM), weakening cash conversion (FCF well below net income), and a sharp TTM revenue decline that raises near-term demand risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown solidly in recent annual periods (2022–2024), but the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp revenue decline, raising near-term demand/volume risk. Profitability is modest but improving versus prior years: TTM gross margin is higher than 2024, and operating margins have ticked up, but net margin remains thin (~2% in TTM), leaving limited buffer if costs rise or pricing weakens. Net income is higher in TTM versus 2024, yet overall earnings quality is constrained by the low absolute margin profile typical of labor-intensive services.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: debt is high relative to equity, with debt-to-equity rising to ~3.4x in TTM (up from ~2.4x in 2024), which reduces financial flexibility. Equity is positive but comparatively small versus the asset base, amplifying sensitivity to operating volatility. Return on equity is respectable (TTM ~14%), but it is being achieved alongside elevated leverage, which increases refinancing and downturn risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive but weakening: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both lower than 2024, and TTM free cash flow growth is negative. Free cash flow covers only a modest portion of net income in TTM (roughly one-third), indicating profits are not translating into cash as strongly as in prior annual periods. The company still produces positive free cash flow, but the trend and conversion quality look less supportive in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) view.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.00B	4.91B	4.31B	4.17B	3.50B	3.57B
Gross Profit	1.42B	1.23B	874.15M	992.24M	808.21M	809.70M
EBITDA	546.60M	507.32M	417.46M	451.15M	364.17M	740.04M
Net Income	108.38M	78.08M	65.54M	64.68M	40.99M	331.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.61B	4.63B	4.04B	4.83B	3.82B	3.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	846.80M	700.01M	440.45M	1.18B	585.90M	917.01M
Total Debt	2.48B	1.96B	1.82B	2.54B	1.78B	1.95B
Total Liabilities	3.81B	3.74B	3.33B	4.04B	3.11B	3.20B
Stockholders Equity	723.10M	811.01M	681.46M	756.11M	692.39M	695.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	99.57M	158.17M	139.41M	139.76M	186.17M	179.93M
Operating Cash Flow	318.25M	352.50M	293.20M	307.57M	330.30M	324.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-124.06M	-169.00M	-185.09M	-145.45M	-25.70M	-21.32M
Financing Cash Flow	109.22M	103.42M	-791.54M	529.79M	-462.24M	18.38M

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ES:PSG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.73, above the 50-day MA of 2.64, and above the 200-day MA of 2.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ES:PSG.

Prosegur Compania de Seguridad Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACS	70 Outperform	€24.35B	28.57	19.75%	2.38%	25.47%	7.63%
FCC	70 Outperform	€5.34B	22.32	5.28%	4.49%	5.00%	-64.19%
SCYR	65 Neutral	€3.12B	31.21	10.80%	5.28%	2.03%	-32.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ENO	60 Neutral	€2.24B	-24.10	-6.79%	13.00%	11.61%	-212.68%
PSG	52 Neutral	€1.51B	13.55	14.39%	4.98%	10.40%	62.70%
OHLA	48 Neutral	€493.53M	-13.08	-6.41%	―	1.39%	72.34%