Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Risk Factors

Financial strength ratings are an important factor in establishing the competitive position of insurance companies such as the Exchange. Higher ratings generally indicate greater financial stability and a stronger ability to meet ongoing obligations to policyholders. The Exchange's A.M. Best rating is currently A+ ("Superior"). A.M. Best periodically reviews the Exchange's ratings and changes their rating criteria; therefore, the Exchange's current rating may not be maintained in the future. A significant downgrade in the A.M. Best rating could reduce the competitive position of the Exchange, making it more difficult to attract profitable business in the highly competitive property and casualty insurance market and potentially result in reduced sales of its products and lower premium revenue. The performance of the Exchange's investment portfolio is subject to a variety of investment risks. The Exchange's investment portfolio is comprised principally of fixed income securities, equity securities and limited partnerships. The fixed income portfolio is subject to a number of risks including, but not limited to, interest rate risk, investment credit risk, sector/concentration risk and liquidity risk. The Exchange's common stock and preferred equity securities have exposure to price risk, the risk of potential loss in estimated fair value resulting from an adverse change in prices. Limited partnerships are significantly less liquid and generally involve higher degrees of price risk than publicly traded securities. Limited partnerships, like publicly traded securities, have exposure to market volatility; but unlike fixed income securities, cash flows and return expectations are less predictable. Additionally, a portion of the Exchange's common stock and limited partnership portfolios are exposed to foreign exchange rate risk, or the potential loss in estimated fair value resulting from adverse changes in foreign currency exchange rates. If any investments in the Exchange's investment portfolio were to suffer a substantial decrease in value, the Exchange's financial position could be materially adversely affected through increased unrealized losses or impairments. A significant decrease in the Exchange's portfolio could also put it, or its subsidiaries, at risk of failing to satisfy regulatory or rating agency minimum capital requirements. Property and casualty insurers are subject to extensive regulatory supervision in the states in which they do business. This regulatory oversight includes, by way of example, matters relating to licensing, examination, rate setting, market conduct, policy forms, limitations on the nature and amount of certain investments, claims practices, mandated participation in involuntary markets and guaranty funds, reserve adequacy, insurer solvency, restrictions on underwriting standards, accounting standards, transactions between affiliates, risk management, cybersecurity and data privacy, and ESG practices. Such regulation and supervision are primarily for the benefit and protection of policyholders. Changes in applicable insurance laws, tax statutes, cyber, privacy, and other laws and regulations, or changes in the way regulators administer those laws, tax statutes, or regulations could adversely impact the Exchange's business, cash flows, results of operations, financial condition, or operating environment and increase its exposure to loss or put it at a competitive disadvantage, which could result in reduced sales of its products and lower premium revenue. Property and casualty insurers face a significant risk of litigation and state and federal regulatory investigations, inquiries and actions in the ordinary course of operating their businesses, including the risk of class action lawsuits. The Exchange and its subsidiaries have also been named as defendants in a number of pandemic-related lawsuits and, therefore, are subject to the risks and uncertainties of such litigation. Plaintiffs in class action and other lawsuits against the Exchange may seek large or indeterminate amounts of damages, including punitive and treble damages, which may remain unknown for substantial periods of time. The uncertainty of risks that emerge upon the occurrence of significant unexpected events, such as pandemics, or unexpected economic or social inflation caused by supply chain issues, societal trends, or otherwise, may cause additional challenges in the process of estimating loss and loss adjustment expense reserves or premiums to accommodate future claims and expenses. For example, the behavior of claimants and policyholders and the timing and amounts of claims settlements may change in unexpected ways. Furthermore, actions taken by governmental bodies, both legislative and regulatory, in reaction to significant unexpected events, and their related impacts, are hard to predict. Technology advancements, such as electric and autonomous vehicles, could impact frequency or severity of losses. The models that are used to determine appropriate premium levels, forecast future losses and expenses, estimate loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, and assess financial strength may be created or deployed in a manner that results in inaccurate predictions. This may result in changes to the Exchange's estimated level of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves or impact the adequacy of premiums to accommodate future claims and expenses. As insurance industry practices and legal, judicial, social and other environmental conditions change, unexpected and unintended issues related to claims and coverage may emerge. In some instances, these emerging issues may not become apparent for some time after the Exchange has issued the affected insurance policies. As a result, the full extent of liability under the Exchange's insurance policies may not be known for many years after the policies are issued. These issues may adversely affect the Exchange's business by either extending coverage beyond its underwriting intent or by increasing the number or size of claims. If there were legislative action in response to a pandemic or other significant unexpected event that retroactively mandated coverage irrespective of terms, exclusions or other conditions included in policies, such as business interruption, that would otherwise preclude coverage, it could have a material impact on the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the Exchange. The Exchange's insurance operations are exposed to claims arising out of catastrophes. Common natural catastrophic events include hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, hail storms, and severe winter weather. The frequency and severity of these catastrophes is inherently unpredictable. Changing climate conditions have added to the unpredictability of the frequency and severity of natural disasters and have created additional uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. A single catastrophic occurrence or aggregation of multiple smaller occurrences within the geographical region of the Exchange or its assumed property reinsurance portfolio could adversely affect the financial condition of the Exchange. Man-made disasters such as terrorist attacks and riots could also cause losses from insurance claims related to the property and casualty insurance operations, which could adversely affect its financial condition.

Unfavorable changes in macroeconomic conditions for any reason, including declining consumer confidence, inflation, high unemployment, lower demand for certain services, reduced personal income, and recession, among others, may lead the Exchange's customers to modify coverage, not renew policies, or even cancel policies, which could adversely affect the premium revenue of the Exchange, and consequently our management fee. The Exchange faces significant competition from other regional and national insurance companies. The property and casualty insurance industry is highly competitive on the basis of product, price and service. If the Exchange's competitors offer property and casualty products with more coverage, offer lower rates, or introduce innovative services in response to evolving customer preferences, and the Exchange is unable to implement product or service improvements quickly enough to keep pace, its ability to grow and renew its business may be adversely impacted. In addition, due to the Exchange's premium concentration in the automobile and homeowners insurance markets, it may be more sensitive to trends that could affect auto and home insurance coverages and rates over time, for example changing vehicle types or usage, usage-based methods of determining premiums, ownership and driving patterns such as ride sharing or remote work, advancements in vehicle or home technology or safety features such as accident and loss prevention technologies, the development of autonomous vehicles, or residential occupancy patterns, among other factors. Innovations, including the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to support underwriting or other decisions, by competitors or other market participants may increase the level of competition in the industry. If the Exchange fails to respond to those innovations on a timely basis, its competitive position and results may be materially adversely affected. The Exchange markets and sells its insurance products through independent, non-exclusive insurance agencies. These agencies are not obligated to sell only the Exchange's insurance products, and generally also sell products of the Exchange's competitors. If agencies do not maintain their current levels of marketing efforts, bind the Exchange to unacceptable risks, place business with competing insurers, or if the Exchange is unsuccessful in attracting or retaining agencies in its distribution system or maintaining its relationships with those agencies, the Exchange's ability to grow and renew its business may be adversely impacted. More broadly, if independent agents face challenges sustaining their own business operations due to unfavorable economic conditions or staffing constraints, it could result in the sale or closure of their businesses, thereby reducing the agency force of the Exchange. Additionally, shifting consumer behaviors toward increased digital interactions may cause the insurance industry as a whole to migrate to a delivery system other than independent agencies. The Exchange maintains a brand recognized for customer service, which is the result of Indemnity's management of the Exchange in accordance with the subscriber's agreement. The perceived performance, actions, conduct and behaviors of employees, independent insurance agency representatives, and third-party service providers may result in reputational harm to the Exchange's brand. Specific incidents which may cause harm include but are not limited to disputes, long customer wait times, errors in processing a claim, failure to protect sensitive customer data, and negative or inaccurate social media or traditional media communications. Likewise, an inability to match or exceed the service provided by competitors, who are increasingly relying on digital delivery and enhanced distribution technology, may impede the Exchange's ability to maintain and/or grow its customer base. If an extreme catastrophic event were to occur in a heavily concentrated geographic area of subscribers/policyholders, an extraordinarily high number of claims could have the potential to strain claims processing and affect the Exchange's ability to service its customers. If third-party service providers fail to perform as anticipated, the Exchange may experience operational difficulties, increased costs, and reputational damage. Similarly, the Exchange's brand could be tarnished by reactions to business practices, adverse financial developments, perceptions of our corporate governance, how we address employee matters and concerns, environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives, or the conduct of our employees, officers and directors. Failure to satisfy expectations in these areas may result in negative publicity or other adverse outcomes, which could be aggravated as the expectations of consumers, regulators and other stakeholders evolve and as social media and other forms of modern communication rapidly magnify reactions. Any reputational harm to the Exchange could have the potential to impair its ability to grow and renew its business.