Dynex Capital (DX) Risk Analysis

We currently intend to pay regular dividends to our common shareholders and to make distributions to our shareholders in amounts such that all or substantially all of our taxable income, subject to certain adjustments, including utilization of our NOL, is distributed. However, we have not established a minimum dividend payment level, and the amount of our dividend is subject to fluctuation. Our ability to pay dividends may be adversely affected by the risk factors described herein. All distributions will be made at the discretion of our Board of Directors and will depend on our GAAP and tax earnings, our financial condition, the requirements for REIT qualification, and such other factors as our Board of Directors may deem relevant from time to time. We may not be able to make distributions, or our Board of Directors may change our dividend policy in the future. To the extent that we decide to pay dividends in excess of our current and accumulated tax earnings and profits, such distributions would generally be considered a return of capital for federal income tax purposes. A return of capital reduces the basis of a shareholder's investment in our common stock to the extent of such basis and is treated as capital gain thereafter. Our strategy of paying a monthly dividend is designed in part to attract retail shareholders that invest in stocks that pay a monthly dividend. The ownership of our stock may become overly concentrated in shareholders who only invest in monthly dividend-paying stocks. These shareholders may be more sensitive to reductions in the dividend or a change in the payment cycle, and our share price could materially decline if we were to reduce the dividend or change the payment cycle of our dividend.

In connection with certain of our repurchase agreements and derivative instruments, we are required to maintain certain financial and non-financial covenants. As of December 31, 2024, our most restrictive financial covenants require that the declines in our shareholders' equity are no greater than 25% in any quarter and 35% in any year. In addition, virtually all of our repurchase agreements and derivative agreements require us to maintain our status as a REIT and be exempt from the provisions of the 1940 Act. Compliance with these covenants depends on market factors, the strength of our business, and operating results. Various risks, uncertainties, and events beyond our control, including significant fluctuations in interest rates, market volatility and changes in market conditions, may affect our ability to comply with these covenants. Failure to comply with these covenants could result in an event of default, termination of an agreement, acceleration of all amounts owed under an agreement, and may give the counterparty the right to exercise available remedies under the repurchase agreement, such as the sale of the asset subject to repurchase at the time of default, unless we were able to negotiate a waiver in connection with any such default. Any such waiver may be conditioned on an amendment to the underlying agreement and any related guaranty agreement on terms that may be unfavorable to us. If we are unable to negotiate a covenant waiver, or replace or refinance our assets under a new repurchase agreement on favorable terms or at all, we may be forced to sell assets at an inopportune time which will likely have a negative impact on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity and cash flows. Further, certain of our repurchase agreements and derivative instruments have cross-default, cross-acceleration, or similar provisions, such that if we were to violate a covenant under one agreement, that violation could lead to defaults, accelerations, or other adverse events under other agreements, as well.

Leverage increases the return on our invested capital if we earn a greater return on investments than our cost of borrowing but decreases return on our invested capital if borrowing costs increase and we have not adequately hedged against such an increase. Further, using leverage magnifies the potential losses to shareholders' equity and book value per common share if our investments' fair market value declines, net of associated hedges. Our ability to fund our operations, meet financial obligations, and finance targeted asset acquisitions may be impacted by an inability to secure and maintain our financing through repurchase agreements or other borrowings with our counterparties. For example, lenders may respond to adverse market conditions by changing the terms of such financings in a manner that makes it more difficult for us to renew or replace on a continuous basis our maturing short-term repurchase agreement borrowings. Furthermore, we may have to dispose of assets at significantly depressed prices, which could result in significant losses, or we may be forced to curtail our asset purchases if certain events occur including if we: - are unable to renew or otherwise access new funds under our existing financing arrangements;- are unable to arrange for new financing on acceptable terms;- default on our financial covenants contained in our financing arrangements; or - become subject to larger haircuts under our financing arrangements requiring us to post additional collateral. In addition, if the Federal Reserve revises capital requirements for lenders, the economy may slow or reduce capital market liquidity. As a result, our lenders may be required to significantly increase the cost of the financing that they provide to us or the amounts of collateral they require as a condition to providing us with financing. At various times, our lenders have revised and may continue to revise, their eligibility requirements for the types of assets that they are willing to finance or the terms of such financing arrangements, including increased haircuts and requiring additional cash collateral, based on, among other factors, the regulatory environment and a lender's management of actual and perceived risk. Moreover, the amount of financing we receive under our financing agreements will be related to our lenders' valuation of the assets subject to such agreements. Typically, the master repurchase agreements that govern our borrowings grant the lender the absolute right, at its sole discretion, to reevaluate the fair market value of the assets subject to such repurchase agreements at any time. These valuations may be different from the values that we ascribe to these assets and may be influenced by recent asset sales at distressed levels by forced sellers. If a lender determines that the value of the assets has decreased, the lender has the right to initiate a margin call, which requires us to transfer additional assets, including cash, to the lender to collateralize the existing borrowing or to repay a portion of the outstanding borrowings. We would also be required to post additional collateral if haircuts increase under a repurchase agreement. Furthermore, if we move financing from one counterparty to another with larger haircut requirements, we will have to repay more cash to settle the original borrowing than we could borrow from the new counterparty. In these situations, we may be forced to sell assets at significantly depressed prices to meet the margin calls and to maintain adequate liquidity, which may cause significant losses. Significant margin calls related to our repurchase agreement borrowings or variation margin related to our hedging instruments may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, business, liquidity, and ability to make distributions to our shareholders, and could cause the value of our capital stock to decline. Our ability to access leverage in the conduct of our operations is impacted by certain factors that are beyond our control and are difficult to predict, which could lead to sudden and material adverse effects on our results of operations, financial condition, business, liquidity, and ability to make distributions to shareholders, and could force us to sell assets at significantly depressed prices to maintain adequate liquidity. Market dislocations could limit our ability to access funding or access funding on terms that we believe are attractive, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition. For more information about our operating policies regarding our use of leverage, please see "Liquidity and Capital Resources" within Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" of our Annual Report on Form 10-K.

As conservator, the FHFA has assumed all the powers of the shareholders, directors, and officers of the GSEs with the goal of preserving and conserving their assets. At various times since the implementation of the conservatorship, Congress has considered structural changes to the GSEs, including proposals that could lead to the release of the GSEs from conservatorship. If such support is modified or withdrawn, if the U.S. Treasury fails to inject new capital as needed, or if the GSEs are released from conservatorship, the market value of Agency MBS may significantly decline, making it difficult for us to obtain repurchase agreement financing or forcing us to sell assets at substantial losses. Furthermore, any policy changes to the relationship between the GSEs and the U.S. government may create market uncertainty and have the effect of reducing the actual or perceived credit quality of securities issued by the GSEs. It may also interrupt the cash flow received by investors on the underlying MBS. Finally, reforms to the GSEs could also negatively impact our ability to comply with the provisions of the 1940 Act (see further discussion below regarding the 1940 Act).

Repurchase agreement transactions are legally structured as the sale of a security to a lender in return for cash from the lender. These transactions are accounted for as financing agreements because the lenders are obligated to resell the same securities back to us at the end of the transaction term. Because the cash we receive from the lender when we initially sell the securities to the lender is less than the value of those securities, if the lender defaults on its obligation to resell the same securities back to us at the end of the transaction term, we would incur a loss on the transaction equal to the difference between the value of the securities sold and the amount borrowed from the lender including accrued interest. The lender may default on its obligation to resell if it experiences financial difficulty or if the lender has re-hypothecated the security to another party who fails to transfer the security back to the lender. Additionally, if we default on one of our obligations under a repurchase agreement, the lender can terminate the transaction, sell the underlying collateral and cease entering into any other repurchase transactions with us. Any losses we incur on our repurchase transactions could adversely affect our liquidity, earnings, and therefore reduce our ability to pay dividends to our shareholders. In the event that one of our lenders under a repurchase agreement files for bankruptcy, it may be difficult for us to recover our assets pledged as collateral to such lender. In addition, if we ever file for bankruptcy, lenders under our repurchase agreements may be able to avoid the automatic stay provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and take possession of and liquidate our collateral under our repurchase agreements without delay. In the event that either we or one of our lenders file for bankruptcy, we may incur losses in amounts equal to the excess of our collateral pledged over the amount of repurchase agreement borrowing due to the lender, which would adversely affect our liquidity, earnings and ability to pay dividends to our shareholders.

We are subject to reinvestment risk as a result of the prepayment, repayment, and sales of our investments. To maintain our investment portfolio size and our earnings, we need to reinvest capital received from these events into new investments, and if market yields on new investments are lower, our interest income will decline. In addition, based on market conditions, our leverage, and our liquidity profile, we may decide to not reinvest the cash flows we receive from our investment portfolio even when attractive reinvestment opportunities are available, or we may decide to reinvest in assets with lower yield but greater liquidity. If we retain capital or pay dividends to return capital to shareholders rather than reinvest capital, or if we invest capital in lower yielding assets for liquidity reasons, the size of our investment portfolio and the amount of income generated by our investment portfolio will decline. RMBS have no prepayment protection while CMBS and CMBS IO have voluntary prepayment protection in the form of a prepayment lock-out on the loan for an initial period or by yield maintenance or prepayment penalty provisions, which serve as full or partial compensation for future lost interest income on the loan, although, we may not be able to reinvest the proceeds into a similar yielding asset. Compensation for voluntary prepayment on CMBS IO securities may not be sufficient to compensate us for the loss of interest as a result of the prepayment. We have no protection from involuntary prepayments. The impact of involuntary prepayments on CMBS IO is particularly acute because the investment consists entirely of premium. An increase in involuntary prepayments will result in the loss of investment premiums at an accelerated rate which could materially reduce our interest income and dividend. Involuntary prepayments typically increase in periods of economic slowdown or stress, and actions taken as a result by the GSEs and federal, state, and local governments. Defaults in loans underlying our CMBS IO, particularly loans in non-Agency CMBS IO securities collateralized by income-producing properties such as retail shopping centers, office buildings, multifamily apartments, and hotels, may increase as a result of economic weakness. Prepayments on Agency CMBS, which are often collateralized by a single loan, could result in margin calls by lenders in excess of our available liquidity, particularly for larger balance investments. Typically, there is a 20-day delay between the announcement of prepayments and the receipt of the cash from the prepayment; however, the repurchase agreement lender may initiate a margin call when the prepayment is announced. If we do not have liquidity available to cover the margin call at that time, we may be in default under the repurchase agreement until we receive the cash from the prepayment. Alternatively, we could be forced to sell assets quickly and on terms unfavorable to us to meet the margin call.

Rating agencies rate securities based upon their assessment of the safety of the receipt of principal and interest payments on the securities. Rating agencies do not consider the risks of fluctuations in fair value or other factors that may influence the value of securities and, therefore, the assigned credit rating may not fully reflect the true risks of an investment in securities. Also, rating agencies may fail to make timely adjustments to credit ratings based on available data or changes in economic outlook or may otherwise fail to make changes in credit ratings in response to subsequent events, so the credit quality of our investments may be better or worse than the ratings indicate. We attempt to reduce the impact of the risk that a credit rating may not accurately reflect the risks associated with a particular debt security by not relying solely on credit ratings as the indicator of the quality of an investment. We make our acquisition decisions after factoring in other information that we have obtained about the loans underlying the security and the credit subordination structure of the security. Despite these efforts, our assessment of the quality of an investment may also prove to be inaccurate and we may incur credit losses in excess of our initial expectations. Credit rating agencies may change their methods of evaluating credit risk and determining ratings on securities backed by real estate loans and securities. These changes may occur quickly and often. The market's ability to understand and absorb these changes, and the impact to the securitization market in general, are difficult to predict. Such changes may have a negative impact on the value of securities that we own.

Our investments fluctuate in value due to several factors including, among others, market volatility, geopolitical events and changes in credit spreads, spot and forward interest rates, and actual and anticipated prepayments. Our investments may also fluctuate in value due to increased or reduced demand for the types of investments we own. The increased or reduced demand for MBS investments relative to U.S. Treasury securities with similar maturities can be observed by looking at the spread or premium included in the interest rate of an MBS investment compared to a U.S. Treasury. The level of demand may be impacted by, among other things, interest rates, capital flows, economic conditions, and government policies and actions, such as purchases and sales by the Federal Reserve. Changes in credit spreads represent the market's valuation of the perceived riskiness of assets relative to risk-free rates. Credit spreads change based on several factors, including, but not limited to, macroeconomic and systemic changes, factors specific to a particular security such as prepayment performance or credit performance, market psychology, and Federal Reserve monetary policies. When credit spreads widen, the market value of our investments will decline because market participants typically require additional yield to hold riskier assets. In addition, the market value of most of our investments will typically decrease as interest rates rise, as seen during fiscal year 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. If market values decrease significantly, we may experience a material reduction in our liquidity if we are forced to sell assets at losses in order to meet margin calls from our lenders, to repay or renew repurchase agreements at maturity, or otherwise to maintain our liquidity. A material reduction in our liquidity could lead to a reduction of the dividend or potentially the payment of the dividend in Company stock subject to the Tax Code rules and limitations.

Interest rate fluctuations impact us in multiple ways. During periods of rising rates, particularly interest rate increases that occur with increases to the targeted U.S. Federal Funds Rate ("Federal Funds Rate"), we may experience a decline in our net interest income because our borrowing rates may increase faster than our investments mature or the coupons on our investments reset. In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve increased the targeted range for the Federal Funds Rate in an effort to slow inflation, which resulted in a significant increase to our repurchase agreement financing costs. While the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate in the third quarter of 2024 and indicated that there may be additional rate cuts, future reductions are not certain. Additionally, there can be no assurance that the Federal Reserve will not return to making upwards adjustments to the Federal Funds Rate in the future. Any further increases in the Federal Funds Rate and market anticipation of the same, are likely to cause our borrowing costs to increase further, negatively impacting our net interest income, common stock dividends, market price of our stock, and book value per common share. Interest rate increases may also negatively affect the market value of our securities, and if we do not adequately hedge against such increases, we will experience declines in comprehensive income, book value per common share, and liquidity. Since our investment portfolio consists substantially of fixed rate instruments, rising interest rates will reduce the market value of our MBS as market participants will in turn demand higher yielding assets. Reductions in the market value of our MBS typically result in margin calls from our lenders, which impacts our liquidity. Furthermore, an increasing interest rate environment may expose us to extension risk because prepayments on the loans underlying our MBS are likely to decline, which may reduce our ability to reinvest into higher yielding assets. Conversely, declining interest rates may expose us to prepayment risk to the extent that prepayments increase on investments we own at a premium to their par value. We amortize the premiums we pay for a security using the effective interest method, so as prepayments increase, the amortization expense of any remaining premium we paid for an investment will also increase, and thereby negatively impact interest income. If market participants factor in potentially faster prepayment rates, we may also experience declines in the market value of higher coupon MBS. Interest rate fluctuations may also impact the market price of our common shares independent of the effects such conditions may have on our investment and hedging portfolios. One of the factors investors may consider in deciding whether to buy or sell our common shares is our dividend rate (or expected future dividend rate) relative to market interest rates. If market interest rates continue to increase or do not decline from their current levels, prospective investors may demand a higher dividend rate on our common shares or seek alternative investments paying higher dividends or interest. We cannot assure you that we will achieve results that will allow us to increase our dividend rate in response to market interest rate increases. It can be difficult to predict the impact on interest rates from unexpected and uncertain domestic and global political and economic events, such as trade conflicts, international politics, global monetary policy, and the impact of economic or other sanctions; however, events such as these may have adverse impacts on, among other things, the U.S. economy, financial markets, the cost of borrowing, the value of the assets we hold, and the financial strength of counterparties with whom we transact business.

We use a variety of derivative instruments to help mitigate increased financing costs and volatility in the market value of our investments from adverse changes in interest rates. Our hedging activity will vary in scope based on, among other things, our forecast of future interest rates, our investment portfolio construction and objectives, the actual and implied level and volatility of interest rates, and sources and terms of financing used. No hedging strategy can completely insulate us from the interest rate risk to which we are exposed. Interest rate hedging may fail to protect or could adversely affect our results of operations, book value and liquidity because, among other things: - the performance of instruments used to hedge may not completely correlate with the performance of the assets or liabilities being hedged;- available hedging instruments may not correspond directly with the interest rate risk from which we seek protection;- the duration of the hedge may not match the duration of the related asset or liability given management's expectation of future changes in interest rates or a result of the inaccuracies of models in forecasting cash flows on the asset being hedged;- the value of derivatives used for hedging will be adjusted from time to time in accordance with GAAP to reflect changes in fair value and downward adjustments will reduce our earnings, shareholders' equity, and book value;- the amount of income that a REIT may earn from hedging transactions (other than through taxable REIT subsidiaries) may be limited by U.S. federal income tax rules governing REITs;- interest rate hedging can be relatively expensive, particularly during periods of volatile interest rates;- the credit quality of the party owing money on the hedge may be downgraded to such an extent that it impairs our ability to sell or assign our side of the hedging transaction; and - the party owing money in the hedging transaction may default on its obligation to pay. Our hedging instruments can be traded on an exchange, or administered through a clearing house or under bilateral agreements between us and a counterparty. Bilateral agreements expose us to increased counterparty risk, and we may be at risk of losing any collateral held by a hedging counterparty if the counterparty becomes insolvent or files for bankruptcy.