Chevron (CVX) Risk Analysis

Chevron has experienced and may be further challenged by increases in the impacts of international and domestic legislation, regulation, or other government actions relating to GHG emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane) and climate change. International agreements and national, regional, and state legislation and regulatory measures that aim to directly or indirectly limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of implementation. Legislation, regulation, and other government actions related to GHG emissions and climate change could reduce demand for Chevron's hydrocarbon and other products and/or continue to increase Chevron's operational costs and reduce its return on investment. The Paris Agreement went into effect in November 2016, and a number of countries in which we operate have adopted and may adopt additional policies intended to meet their Paris Agreement goals. Globally, multiple jurisdictions are considering adopting or are in the process of implementing laws or regulations to directly regulate GHG emissions through a carbon tax, a cap-and-trade program, performance standards or other mechanisms, or to attempt to indirectly advance reduction of GHG emissions through restrictive permitting, procurement standards, trade barriers, minimum renewable usage requirements, financing standards, standards or requirements for environmental benefit claims, increased GHG reporting and climate-related disclosure requirements, or tax advantages or other incentives to promote the use of alternative energy, fuel sources or lower-carbon technologies. For example, the company is currently subject to implemented programs in certain jurisdictions, such as the Renewable Fuel Standard program in the U.S., California's Cap-and-Trade Program and Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and newly approved mandates such as the California Air Resources Board Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, as well as other indirect regulation of GHG emissions, which may, among other things, ban or restrict technologies or products that use the company's products. GHG emissions that may be directly regulated through such efforts include, among others, those associated with the company's exploration and production of hydrocarbons; the upgrading of production from oil sands into synthetic oil; power generation; the conversion of crude oil, natural gas and biofeedstocks into refined hydrocarbon products; the processing, liquefaction, and regasification of natural gas; the transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and other products; and customers' and consumers' use of the company's hydrocarbon products. In addition, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) implements various incentives for lower carbon activities, including carbon capture and storage and the production of hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel. Although the IRA offers incentives that could support certain lower carbon lines of business, those same incentives could negatively impact supply and/or demand for our oil and gas products in the future or any existing or future lower carbon business lines. Many of these actions, as well as customers' and consumers' preferences and use of the company's products or substitute products, and actions taken by the company's competitors in response to legislation and regulations, are beyond the company's control. Similar to any significant changes in the regulatory environment, climate change-related legislation, regulation, or other government actions may curtail profitability in oil and gas and lower carbon businesses, as well as render the extraction of the company's hydrocarbon resources economically infeasible. In particular, GHG emissions-related legislation, regulations, and other government actions, and shifting customer and consumer preferences and other private efforts aimed at reducing GHG emissions may result in increased and substantial capital, compliance, operating, and maintenance costs and could, among other things, reduce demand for hydrocarbons and the company's hydrocarbon-based products; increase demand for lower carbon products and alternative energy sources; make the company's products more expensive; adversely affect the economic feasibility of the company's resources; impact or limit our business plans; and adversely affect the company's sales volumes, revenues, margins and reputation. For example, some jurisdictions are in various stages of design, adoption, and implementation of policies and programs that cap emissions and/or require short-, medium-, and long-term GHG reductions by operators at the asset or facility level, which may not be technologically feasible, or which could require significant capital expenditure, increase costs of or limit production, result in impairment of assets and limit Chevron's ability to cost-effectively reduce GHG emissions across its global portfolio. The ultimate effect of international agreements; national, regional, and state legislation and regulation; and government and private actions related to GHG emissions and climate change on the company's financial performance, and the timing of these effects, will depend on a number of factors. Such factors include, among others, the sectors covered, the GHG emissions reductions required, standardized carbon accounting, the extent to which Chevron would be able to receive, generate, or purchase credits, the price and availability of credits and the extent to which the company is able to recover, or continue to recover, the costs incurred through the pricing of the company's products in the competitive marketplace. Further, the ultimate impact of GHG emissions and climate change-related agreements, legislation, regulation, and government actions on the company's financial performance is highly uncertain because the company is unable to predict with certainty, for a multitude of individual jurisdictions, the outcome of political decision-making processes, including the actual laws and regulations enacted, the variables and trade-offs that inevitably occur in connection with such processes, and market conditions, including the responses of consumers to such changes.