Centene (CNC) Risk Analysis

From time to time, we are a defendant in lawsuits and regulatory actions and are subject to investigations relating to our business, including, without limitation, claims that may have retroactive application and periodic compliance and other reviews and investigations by various federal and state regulatory agencies with respect to requirements applicable to our business, including, without limitation, those related to payment of claims, compliance with the CMS Medicare and Marketplace regulations, including risk adjustment, prior authorizations and broker compensation, compliance with the False Claims Act, the calculation of minimum MLR and rebates related thereto, submissions to state agencies related to payments or state false claims acts, pre-authorization penalties, timely review of grievances and appeals, timely and accurate payment of claims, provider directory accuracy, network adequacy, cybersecurity issues, including those related to our or our third-party vendors' information systems, HIPAA and other federal and state fraud, waste and abuse laws; litigation arising out of general business activities, such as tax matters, disputes related to healthcare benefits coverage or reimbursement, putative securities class actions and related derivative lawsuits, and medical malpractice, privacy, real estate, intellectual property, vendor disputes and employment-related claims; and disputes regarding reinsurance arrangements, claims arising out of the acquisition or divestiture of various assets, class actions and claims relating to the performance of contractual and non-contractual obligations to providers, members, employer groups, vendors and others, including, but not limited to, the alleged failure to properly pay claims and challenges to the manner in which we processes claims, claims related to network adequacy and claims alleging that we have engaged in unfair business practices; and protests and appeals related to Medicaid procurement awards. Although we maintain some third-party insurance coverage, including excess liability insurance with third-party insurance carriers, certain liabilities or types of damages, such as punitive damages, may not be covered by insurance, insurers may dispute coverage or the amount of insurance may be insufficient to cover the entire damages awarded. In addition, regardless of the outcome of any litigation or regulatory proceedings, such proceedings are costly and time-consuming and require significant attention from our management and could therefore have a material adverse effect on our business and financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.

The majority of our revenues come from government subsidized healthcare programs including Medicaid, Medicare, CHIP, LTSS, ABD, Foster Care and Health Insurance Marketplace premiums. Changes in these programs, including due to executive orders or other regulatory actions from the current political administration, could change the number of persons enrolled in or eligible for these programs, reduce funding, delay funding and increase our administrative and healthcare costs under these programs. For example, due to the declaration of the end of the PHE and the subsequent expiration of the eligibility determination waivers, the resumption of the Medicaid eligibility redeterminations significantly reduced our membership in our Medicaid programs, and we did not fully offset the loss of this membership by increased enrollment in our Health Insurance Marketplace products. In addition, as a result of the expiration of the PHE due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting Medicaid redeterminations process, we have experienced a higher HBR related to the remaining members, due to the acuity profile of this membership, as well as the gaps in eligibility for certain members who have rejoined the Medicaid plans. While we continue to work with our state partners to match rates to acuity post-redeterminations, such rate adjustments may be delayed or insufficient to offset the increased acuity. In some cases, states may decide to reduce reimbursement or reduce benefits. If any state in which we operate were to decrease premiums paid to us or pay us less than the amount necessary to keep pace with our cost trends, it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. The Final Rule was published in the Federal Register on June 25, 2025. The Final Rule makes changes to policies to strengthen program integrity measures in the Marketplace. For example, the Special Enrollment Period for those under 150% of the FPL has been repealed beginning August 25, 2025. Several of the provisions of the Final Rule have been stayed due to ongoing litigation. These include a requirement for certain consumers who automatically re-enroll into a fully subsidized Marketplace plan to be re-enrolled into the same plan with a $5 premium until the consumer updates their exchange application to confirm APTC eligibility. Additionally, exchanges may no longer accept a consumer's self-attestation of projected annual household income when the IRS cannot verify it due to lack of tax return data; rather, exchanges must verify household income using other trusted data sources. Extended eligibility for the Enhanced APTC for Marketplace members expired on December 31, 2025. In July 2025, the OBBBA placed additional restrictions on APTC requirements. For example, beginning January 1, 2026, should individuals mis-estimate their projected income, the OBBBA requires them to reimburse the IRS for the full amount of excess tax credit received. In addition, as of January 1, 2026, the OBBBA prohibits individuals from receiving APTCs if they enroll in health coverage through a Special Enrollment Period associated with their income. We anticipate that the combined effect of the expiration of the Enhanced APTCs, the Final Rule, and the OBBBA will reduce 2026 Marketplace membership and continue to increase the overall morbidity of the Marketplace population. Payments from government payors may be delayed in the future, which, if extended for any significant period of time, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition, cash flows or liquidity. For example, we have a receivable due to us from CMS for Part D risk-sharing programs attributable to the 2025 plan year that we expect to be paid by CMS within a year after the plan year closes. If the payments from CMS are delayed, our cash flows may be materially adversely affected. In addition, delays in obtaining, or failure to obtain or maintain, governmental approvals, or moratoria imposed by regulatory authorities, could adversely affect our revenues or membership, increase costs or adversely affect our ability to bring new products to market as forecasted. Other changes to our government programs could affect our willingness or ability to participate in any of these programs or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. Under most of these programs, the base premium rate paid for each program differs, depending on a combination of factors such as defined upper payment limits, a member's health status, age, gender, county or region and benefit mix. Since Medicaid was created in 1965, the federal government and states have shared the costs for this program, with the federal government share currently averaging approximately 60%. We are therefore exposed to risks associated with federal and state government contracting or participating in programs involving a government payor, including but not limited to the general ability of the federal and/or state governments to terminate or modify contracts with them, in whole or in part, without prior notice, for convenience or for default based on performance; potential regulatory or legislative action that may materially modify amounts owed; our dependence upon Congressional or legislative appropriation and allotment of funds and the impact that delays in government payments could have on our operating cash flow and liquidity; responses to pandemics, resurgences and new emergent diseases and other regulatory, legislative or judicial actions that may have an impact on the operations of government subsidized healthcare programs, including ongoing litigation involving the ACA. Future levels of funding and premium rates may be affected by continuing government efforts to contain healthcare costs and may further be affected by state and federal budgetary constraints and spending initiatives or changes in control of the legislative or executive branches at the state and federal level. Governments periodically consider reducing or reallocating the amount of money they spend for Medicaid, Medicare, CHIP, LTSS, ABD and Foster Care. For example, the OBBBA includes requirements that may reduce the number of members eligible for state Medicaid Expansion programs by requiring work or community engagement by members and for state Medicaid agencies to redetermine member eligibility at more frequent intervals, along with adding a "Cost Sharing" or "Co-Pay" for certain medical services. These changes could have the effect of increasing the overall morbidity of the Medicaid Expansion population largely beginning in 2027, subject to state implementation plans. Several other provisions of the OBBBA, such as adjustments to provider taxes and state directed payments beginning in 2028, may have the effect of reducing the amount of federal funding for Medicaid, which could result in changes in the design of Medicaid programs, including coverage of benefits, eligibility, and/or provider payment rates. In particular, New York intends to terminate its Essentials Plan-5, which provided state-subsidized healthcare for individuals from 200% to 250% of the FPL by July 1, 2026. Medicare remains subject to the automatic spending reductions imposed by the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (sequestration), subject to a 2% cap, which was extended by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 through 2029, which was reinstated on July 1, 2022, after a temporary suspension due to the COVID pandemic. Additional changes to the funding or eligibility criteria for these programs could materially impact our membership, revenues, financial condition and cash flows. The IRA enacted significant changes to the Medicare Part D program beginning on January 1, 2025. These changes created additional uncertainty for 2025 Medicare Part D bids, including their profitability and the competitive market landscape. If our future Part D premium bids are not profitable or below the CMS benchmarks or competitors price their products with significantly lower premiums, membership, revenue and profitability of this product could be materially reduced, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial conditions. Further, changes in the Medicare Part D program could impact membership and cause the timing of our cash flows to be impacted, which in turn could impact the timing and level of our interest expense. In addition, CMS regulations will require beneficiaries dually enrolled in Medicare and in a Medicaid managed care plan to receive integrated care through the Medicaid company's Medicare Advantage D-SNPs beginning in 2030, with certain restrictions beginning in 2027, which may restrict our product offerings in some geographic service areas. However, some states have already moved or are planning to exclusively align dual-eligible enrollment under an aligned D-SNP before this timeframe. In addition, adverse economic conditions may put pressures on state budgets as tax and other state revenues decrease while the population that is eligible to participate in these programs remains steady or increases, creating more need for funding. We anticipate this will require government agencies to find funding alternatives, which may result in reductions or delays in funding for programs, contraction of covered benefits, increases to taxes and fees and limited or no premium rate increases or premium rate decreases. A reduction (or less than expected increase), a protracted delay or a change in allocation methodology in government funding for these programs, as well as termination of one or more contracts for the convenience of the government, may materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Also, if legislation increasing the federal debt ceiling is not enacted and the debt ceiling is reached, the federal government may stop or delay making payments on its obligations. In addition, if another federal government shutdown were to occur for a prolonged period of time, federal government payment obligations, including its obligations under Medicaid, Medicare, CHIP, LTSS, ABD, Foster Care and the Health Insurance Marketplace, may be delayed. Similarly, if state government shutdowns were to occur, state payment obligations may be delayed. If the federal or state governments fail to make payments under these programs on a timely basis, our business could suffer, and our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows may be materially affected.