Cummins (CMI) Risk Analysis

We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers, which have been an integral part of our positive business results for several years. Many are truck manufacturers or OEMs that manufacture engines for some of their own vehicles. Despite their own engine manufacturing abilities, these customers have historically chosen to outsource certain types of engine production to us due to the quality of our engine products, our emission compliance capabilities, our systems integration, their customers' preferences, their desire for cost reductions, their desire for eliminating production risks and their desire to maintain company focus. However, there can be no assurance that these customers will continue to outsource, or outsource as much of, their engine production in the future. In addition, increased levels of OEM vertical integration could result from a number of factors, such as shifts in our customers' business strategies, acquisition by a customer of another engine manufacturer, the inability of third-party suppliers to meet product specifications and the emergence of low-cost production opportunities in foreign countries. Any significant reduction in the level of engine production outsourcing from our truck manufacturer or OEM customers, financial distress of one of our large truck OEM customers due to a change-in-control, could likely lead to significant reductions in our sales volumes, commercial disputes, receivable collection issues and other negative consequences that could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

We sponsor both funded and unfunded domestic and foreign defined benefit pension and other retirement plans. Our pension cost and the required contributions to our pension plans are directly affected by the value of plan assets, the projected and actual rates of return on plan assets and the actuarial assumptions we use to measure our defined benefit pension plan obligations, including the discount rate at which future projected and accumulated pension obligations are discounted to a present value. We could experience increased pension cost due to a combination of factors, including the decreased investment performance of pension plan assets, decreases in the discount rate and changes in our assumptions relating to the expected return on plan assets. Significant declines in current and future financial and stock market conditions could cause material losses in our pension plan assets, which could result in increased pension cost in future years and adversely impact our results of operations, financial condition and cash flow. Depending upon the severity and length of market declines and government regulatory changes, we may be legally obligated to make pension payments in the U.S. and perhaps other countries, and these contributions could be material.

Part of our strategic plan is to improve our revenue growth, gross margins and earnings by exploring the repositioning of our portfolio of product line offerings through the pursuit of potential strategic acquisitions, divestitures and/or exiting the production of certain product lines or product categories to provide future strategic, financial and operational benefits and improve shareholder value. There can be no assurance that we will be able to identify suitable candidates or consummate these transactions on favorable terms. The successful identification and completion of any strategic transaction depends on a number of factors that are not entirely within our control, including the availability of suitable candidates and our ability to negotiate terms acceptable to all parties involved, conclude satisfactory agreements and obtain all necessary regulatory approvals. Accordingly, we may not be able to successfully negotiate and complete specific transactions. The exploration, negotiation and consummation of strategic transactions may involve significant expenditures by us, which may adversely affect our results of operations at the time such expenses are incurred, and may divert management's attention from our existing business. Strategic transactions also may have adverse effects on our existing business relationships with suppliers and customers. If required, the financing for strategic acquisitions could result in an increase in our indebtedness, dilute the interests of our shareholders or both. Any acquisition may not be accretive to us for a significant period of time following the completion of such acquisition. Also, our ability to effectively integrate any potential acquisition into our existing business and culture may not be successful, which could jeopardize future financial and operational performance for the combined businesses. In addition, if an acquisition results in any additional goodwill or increase in other intangible assets on our balance sheet and subsequently becomes impaired, we would be required to record a non-cash impairment charge, which could result in a material adverse effect on our financial condition. Similarly, any strategic divestiture of a product line or business or exit of a product line or product category may reduce our revenue and earnings, reduce the diversity of our business, result in material costs and expenses and cause disruption to our employees, customers, vendors and communities in which we operate.

Although we conduct market research before launching new or refreshed engines and introducing new services, many factors both within and outside our control affect the success of new or existing products and services in the marketplace. Offering engines and services that customers desire and value can mitigate the risks of increasing competition and declining demand, but products and services that are perceived to be less than desirable (whether in terms of price, quality, overall value, fuel efficiency or other attributes) can exacerbate these risks. With increased consumer interconnectedness through the internet, social media and other media, mere allegations relating to poor quality, safety, fuel efficiency, corporate responsibility or other key attributes can negatively impact our reputation or market acceptance of our products or services, even if such allegations prove to be inaccurate or unfounded.

We are investing in new products and technologies, including electrified power systems and related components and subsystems. Given the early stages of development of some of these new products and technologies, there can be no guarantee of the future market acceptance and investment returns with respect to our planned products, which will face competition from an array of other technologies and manufacturers. The ongoing energy transition away from fossil fuels and the increased adoption of electrified powertrains in some market segments could result in lower demand for current diesel or natural gas engines and components and, over time, reduce the demand for related parts and service revenues from diesel or natural gas powertrains. Furthermore, it is possible that we may not be successful in developing segment-leading electrified powertrains. We may face technological challenges and evolving government and customer requirements, and we may not succeed in anticipating them and developing the desired technologies and products on a timely basis. Some of our existing customers could choose to develop their own or source from other manufacturers. Additionally, competitors may develop these technologies and products before we do, and they may be viewed by our customers to be superior to technologies and products we may develop. If the energy transition landscape changes faster than anticipated or in a manner that we do not anticipate, demand for our products and services, as well as our relationships with various stakeholders, could be adversely affected. Alternatively, if the energy transition occurs more slowly than anticipated, demand for our new products and technologies may be lower than expected or we may need to reassess, scale back or discontinue investments in future products, and as a result, we may fail to realize the anticipated benefits of our investments in new products and technologies. Furthermore, if we fail or are perceived to not effectively implement an energy transition strategy, or if investors or financial institutions shift funding away from companies in fossil fuel-related industries, our access to capital or the market for our securities could be negatively impacted. Any of these factors could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

We rely on the capacity, reliability and security of our IT environment and data security infrastructure in connection with various aspects of our business activities. We also rely on our ability to expand and continually update these technologies and related infrastructure in response to the changing needs of our business. As we implement new technologies, they may not perform as expected. We face the challenge of supporting our older technologies and implementing necessary upgrades. In addition, some of these technologies are managed by third-party service providers and are not under our direct control. If we experience a problem with an important technology, including during upgrades and/or new implementations of technologies, the resulting disruptions could have an adverse effect on our business and reputation. As customers adopt and rely on cloud-based digital technologies and services we offer, any disruption of the confidentiality, integrity or availability of those services could have an adverse effect on our business and reputation. The data handled by our technologies is vulnerable to security threats. Our operations routinely involve receiving, storing, processing and transmitting sensitive information pertaining to our business, customers, dealers, suppliers, employees and other sensitive matters. As such, our IT environment faces information technology security threats, such as security breaches, computer malware, ransomware attacks and other "cyber attacks," which are increasing in both frequency and sophistication, along with power outages or hardware failures. Increasing use of AI may increase these risks. These threats could result in unauthorized public disclosures of information, create financial liability, subject us to legal or regulatory sanctions, disrupt our ability to conduct our business, result in the loss of intellectual property or damage our reputation with customers, dealers, suppliers and other stakeholders. As the result of changing market conditions, a large percentage of our salaried employees continue to work remotely full or part-time. This remote working environment may pose a heightened risk for security breaches or other disruptions of our IT environment. In addition, our products, including our engines, contain interconnected and increasingly complex technologies that control various processes, and these technologies are potentially subject to "cyber attacks" and disruption. The impact of a significant IT event on either our IT environment or our products could have a material adverse effect on our competitive position, reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

We are incorporating AI solutions into our business, products, services and features, and we are leveraging AI, including generative AI, machine learning and similar tools and technologies, in our product development, operations and software programming. There is inherent risk and uncertainty involved in using AI. The use of AI in the development of our products and services could cause loss or theft of intellectual property, as well as subject us to risks related to intellectual property infringement or misappropriation, data privacy and cybersecurity. The use of AI by us, our vendors or our suppliers can lead to unintended consequences, including generating content that appears correct but is factually inaccurate, misleading or otherwise flawed, or that results in unintended biases and discriminatory outcomes, which could harm our stakeholders, our reputation and our business and expose us to risks related to inaccuracies or errors in the output of such technologies. If the AI tools that we use are deficient, inaccurate or controversial, we could incur operational inefficiencies, competitive harm, legal liability, brand or reputational harm, or other adverse impacts on our business and financial results. If we do not have sufficient rights to use the data or other material or content on which the AI tools we use rely, we also may incur liability through the violation of applicable laws and regulations, third-party intellectual property, data privacy, or other rights or contracts to which we are a party. In addition, our personnel could, unbeknownst to us, improperly utilize AI and machine learning-technology while carrying out their responsibilities. If we fail to keep pace with rapidly evolving technological developments in AI, our competitive position and business results may suffer. Our competitors or other third parties may incorporate AI into their products or operational processes more quickly or more successfully than us, which could have a material adverse effect on our competitive position, reputation and results of operations. In addition, there are significant risks involved in developing and deploying AI, and there can be no assurance that the usage of AI will enhance our products or services or be beneficial to our business, including our efficiency or profitability. The rapid evolution of AI, including the regulation of AI by government or other regulatory agencies, will require significant resources to develop, test and maintain our platforms, offerings, services and features to implement AI ethically and minimize any unintended harmful impacts.

Our business is subject to the political, economic and other risks that are inherent in operating in numerous countries. These risks include: - economic and political instability, including international conflicts, war, acts of terrorism or the threat thereof, political or labor unrest, civil unrest, riots, insurrections or trade wars;- potential changes to, uncertainty around or repeal of certain environmental laws and regulations, potentially slowing adoption of technologies we are investing in and developing;- the difficulty of enforcing agreements and collecting receivables through foreign legal systems;- trade protection measures and import or export licensing requirements;- the imposition of taxes on foreign income and tax rates in certain foreign countries that exceed those in the U.S.;- the imposition of tariffs, exchange controls or other restrictions;- difficulty in staffing and managing widespread operations and the application of foreign labor regulations;- public health crises, including the spread of a contagious disease, such as future pandemics or epidemics, quarantines or shutdowns related to public health crises, and other catastrophic events;- required compliance with a variety of foreign laws and regulations; and - changes in general economic and political conditions, including changes in relationship with the U.S., in countries where we operate, particularly in China and emerging markets. As we continue to operate and grow our business globally, our success will depend, in part, on our ability to anticipate and effectively manage these and other related risks. There can be no assurance that the consequences of these and other factors relating to our multinational operations will not have a material adverse effect upon us. In addition, there continues to be significant uncertainty about the future relationships between the U.S. and China, including with respect to trade policies, treaties, government regulations and tariffs. Any increased trade barriers or restrictions on global trade, especially trade with China, could adversely impact our competitive position, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.