Holcim (HOLN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: CHF34.30B
• Dividend Yield: 2.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 111.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: -19.77%
• EPS Growth: 421.53%
• Country: CH
• Employees: 62,391
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Construction Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.64
• Shares Outstanding: 566,875,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 984,453
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,185,202
• PEG Ratio: -1.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: CHF78.18
• Price Target Upside: 22.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): CHF16.22B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: CHF66.00 ▲(3.68% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/02/26

The score is anchored by decent underlying financial strength over 2020–2024 but heavily tempered by the pronounced 2025 deterioration in revenue, profitability, and cash flow. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E with a modest dividend), while technicals remain a clear headwind with bearish trend indicators and weak momentum.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration and diversified product portfolio

Holcim's ownership across quarries, cement plants, terminals and ready-mix networks creates a durable competitive advantage: it captures value across the supply chain, reduces logistics risk, and enables bundled sales to projects, supporting margin stability and resilience over months.

Multi-year resilient margins and profitability (2020–2024)

Consistent gross and operating margins from 2020–2024 indicate structural cost discipline and pricing power in core markets. That track record suggests the company can restore normalized profitability as volumes recover, supporting medium-term earnings durability.

Strong historical cash generation and FCF conversion

High free cash flow conversion historically demonstrates quality of earnings and ability to fund operations, maintenance capex and shareholder returns. This cash generation provides flexibility to withstand cyclical downturns and invest in growth over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp 2025 revenue and cashflow deterioration

A 26.7% revenue hit and >50% drop in free cash flow in 2025 indicate that demand or operational shocks heavily impacted core volumes and liquidity. Such a reset can strain working capital, defer projects, and slow recovery of structural profitability for several quarters.

Net margin compression and earnings deterioration

A collapse in net margin from prior mid-teens operating performance to single digits erodes the firm's earnings buffer versus fixed costs and debt service. If margins remain depressed, the company faces limited ability to self-fund investments or absorb further market weakness.

Profitability decline reduces leverage cushion

Moderate historical leverage becomes riskier when earnings fall sharply: reduced profitability weakens interest coverage and limits capacity to deleverage. This structural tension can constrain capital allocation, raise refinancing risk, and slow strategic initiatives until earnings recover.

Holcim Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holcim Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a building materials and solutions company in the Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and North America. It operates through four segments: Cement, Aggregates, Ready-mix Concrete, and Solutions & Products. The company offers cement, hydraulic binders, clinker, and other cementitious materials; aggregates, such as crushed stone, gravel, and sand; and ready-mix concrete, precast concrete products, asphalts, and mortars. In addition, it engages in the provision of contracting and other services; and retail activities, as well as waste management services. Its products are used in infrastructure projects, such as roads, mines, ports, dams, data centers, stadiums, wind farms, and electric power plants; building projects comprising individual housing, collective housing, office buildings, industrial and commercial buildings, and public buildings; and affordable housing. The company was formerly known as LafargeHolcim Ltd and changed its name to Holcim Ltd in May 2021. Holcim Ltd was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

Holcim makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling building materials and construction solutions to a broad base of customers (e.g., contractors, ready-mix producers, developers, industrial customers, and public-sector infrastructure projects). Its key revenue streams include: (1) Cement: revenue from selling cement and clinker, typically priced per tonne and influenced by regional construction demand, energy and raw-material input costs, and logistics constraints; (2) Aggregates: revenue from quarrying and selling aggregates used as essential inputs for concrete and road-building, often benefiting from local sourcing advantages due to transport costs; (3) Ready-mix concrete: revenue from producing and delivering ready-mix concrete to construction sites, where earnings are tied to local project activity, batching network density, and delivery/logistics execution; (4) Solutions & Products: revenue from building systems and products (including building envelope offerings such as roofing/insulation systems) and other value-added construction solutions, typically with different margin and pricing dynamics than commodity materials. Across these lines, Holcim’s earnings are supported by vertically integrated operations (owning and coordinating quarries, cement plants, terminals, and ready-mix networks), which can capture value across the construction materials chain and improve supply reliability. Additional contributors to revenue and profitability can include project- and customer-specific services (e.g., technical support and mix design for concrete), downstream product bundling (selling multiple materials/products into the same project), and performance/brand differentiation (such as lower-carbon or specialized formulations) where customers pay for specification compliance or sustainability attributes. Specific partnership details are null.

Holcim Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Multi-year fundamentals were solid (2020–2024) with resilient margins, moderate leverage, and consistent positive free cash flow, but 2025 shows a sharp reset: revenue down ~26.7% YoY, net margin falling to ~2.5%, and free cash flow down ~53%, creating meaningful near-term uncertainty.

Income Statement

Profitability was solid and fairly consistent through 2020–2024, with gross margin holding around ~40–44% and operating profitability steady (EBIT margin ~14–17%). However, 2025 shows a sharp step-down: revenue fell ~26.7% year over year and net margin compressed materially (to ~2.5% from ~11% in 2023–2024), implying a significant earnings deterioration versus the prior run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector, with debt-to-equity generally around ~0.47–0.62 and a large equity base. Return on equity was healthy in 2021–2024 (~8–12%), supporting balance sheet quality, but 2025 profitability weakened significantly (and reported return on equity is shown as 0.0), which reduces the cushion that earnings provide against leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation was strong in 2020–2024, with free cash flow consistently positive and free cash flow running at roughly ~66–76% of net income, indicating decent earnings quality. The main concern is the 2025 downturn: operating cash flow and free cash flow dropped meaningfully, with free cash flow down ~53% year over year, reflecting weaker underlying performance and/or higher cash demands.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.46B	15.72B	26.41B	27.01B	29.19B	26.83B
Gross Profit	9.53B	6.66B	11.68B	11.50B	11.61B	11.54B
EBITDA	4.97B	3.68B	5.97B	6.45B	6.98B	6.04B
Net Income	15.42B	387.00M	2.93B	3.06B	3.31B	2.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.01B	33.60B	54.28B	52.69B	57.60B	59.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.24B	5.44B	5.35B	6.09B	9.83B	6.69B
Total Debt	9.81B	9.51B	12.92B	13.12B	14.91B	16.61B
Total Liabilities	17.69B	17.52B	26.33B	25.90B	27.99B	29.41B
Stockholders Equity	14.64B	15.38B	27.24B	26.00B	28.67B	27.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.67B	1.73B	4.02B	3.96B	3.01B	3.51B
Operating Cash Flow	5.01B	2.79B	5.67B	5.47B	4.56B	5.04B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.96B	-1.96B	-2.04B	-3.47B	2.08B	-4.71B
Financing Cash Flow	-622.00M	-63.00M	-4.37B	-5.22B	-3.25B	1.11B

Holcim Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 63.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:HOLN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 63.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.83, below the 50-day MA of 72.88, and below the 200-day MA of 68.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CH:HOLN.

Holcim Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIKA	69 Neutral	CHF20.36B	24.98	―	2.23%	-1.05%	-1.46%
EMSN	66 Neutral	CHF14.08B	27.52	22.08%	3.16%	-4.25%	-0.03%
HOLN	65 Neutral	CHF34.30B	111.09	12.79%	2.03%	-19.77%	421.53%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CLN	59 Neutral	CHF2.25B	-31.13	5.38%	5.97%	-2.40%	38.08%

Holcim Corporate Events

Holcim to Acquire Cemex Assets in Colombia to Boost Latin American Growth

Holcim has agreed to acquire Cemex’s building materials and solutions operations in Colombia, adding more than 20 production sites including the Caracolito cement plant and Santa Rosa grinding station. The deal significantly enlarges Holcim’s existing Colombian footprint of one cement plant, multiple ready-mix and aggregates facilities, and over 150 Disensa retail outlets.

The USD 485 million transaction targets projected 2026 net sales of around USD 360 million and implies a pro forma 2026 EBITDA multiple of about 5x after run-rate synergies of roughly USD 30 million expected by year three. Positioned as EPS accretive in the first year and ROIC accretive by year three, the acquisition strengthens Holcim’s Latin American presence and aligns with its NextGen Growth 2030 strategy and disciplined capital allocation, pending customary regulatory approvals expected by year-end.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:HOLN) stock is a Buy with a CHF93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holcim stock, see the CH:HOLN Stock Forecast page.

Holcim Named Global Top Employer for 2026, Strengthening Talent-Driven Growth Strategy

Holcim has been recognized as a Global Top Employer for 2026 by the Top Employers Institute for the second consecutive year, placing it among only 17 companies worldwide with this status. The certification spans 27 Holcim markets and reflects a global score of 87%, with standout performance in ethics and integrity, learning, and business strategy, aligned with its NextGen Growth 2030 strategy and its focus on a performance-driven culture.

The accolade underscores Holcim’s efforts to position itself as an employer of choice in the sustainable construction sector, emphasizing talent development, diversity, employee engagement, and health and safety. By strengthening its people practices through initiatives such as Holcim University, the group reinforces its ability to attract and retain skilled staff, supporting long-term growth and its ambition to be the leading partner for sustainable construction.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:HOLN) stock is a Hold with a CHF76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holcim stock, see the CH:HOLN Stock Forecast page.

Holcim Lifts Profitability in 2025 and Doubles Down on Green, High‑Growth Markets

Holcim reported 2025 net sales of CHF 15.7 billion, up 3% in local currencies, and lifted Recurring EBIT by 10.3% in local currencies to CHF 2.9 billion, expanding its industry‑leading EBIT margin by 80 basis points to 18.3%. Earnings per share before impairments and divestments rose 5%, free cash flow edged up to CHF 2.15 billion, and the board proposed a higher dividend of CHF 1.70 per share, reflecting confidence in the company’s post‑spin‑off performance and robust cash generation.

The group executed 21 portfolio transactions in 2025, including 18 acquisitions that expanded its Building Materials and Building Solutions segments and three divestments in Jordan, Nigeria and Iraq to refocus on higher‑growth markets. Holcim also agreed to acquire wall‑systems specialist Xella and a majority stake in Peru’s Cementos Pacasmayo, advanced multiple organic investments and CO₂‑capture projects, and grew recycled construction material volumes by 23.5%, underscoring sustainability and circular construction as key drivers of profitable growth and future margin expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:HOLN) stock is a Buy with a CHF90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holcim stock, see the CH:HOLN Stock Forecast page.

Holcim Buys French Precast Specialist Alkern to Boost High-Value Building Solutions

Holcim has completed the acquisition of Alkern, a leading French manufacturer of precast concrete elements with estimated 2025 net sales of around EUR 250 million, expanding its presence in high-value building solutions for infrastructure, industrial facilities and buildings in France and Belgium. The deal adds Alkern’s walling, flooring and water management systems to Holcim’s portfolio, supports the group’s NextGen Growth 2030 objective for its Building Solutions segment to reach 50% of group net sales by 2030, and is expected to be earnings and cash-flow accretive in the first year while delivering EUR 11 million of run-rate EBITDA synergies and higher returns on invested capital by year three.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:HOLN) stock is a Buy with a CHF78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holcim stock, see the CH:HOLN Stock Forecast page.

Holcim Expands in Latin America with Cementos Pacasmayo Acquisition

Holcim is acquiring a majority stake in Cementos Pacasmayo, a prominent Peruvian building materials producer, to strengthen its presence in Latin America and accelerate growth in line with its NextGen Growth 2030 strategy. The acquisition, valued at approximately USD 1.5 billion, is expected to enhance Holcim’s earnings and cash flow from the first year and achieve significant synergies by the third year, marking a strategic expansion in a profitable region.

The most recent analyst rating on (CH:HOLN) stock is a Hold with a CHF80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holcim stock, see the CH:HOLN Stock Forecast page.