Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) AI Stock Analysis

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Barry Callebaut AG

(BARN)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

CHF1,078.00

▲(1.41%Upside)

Barry Callebaut AG's stock is moderately attractive, driven by strong technical momentum and strategic advancements in securing liquidity. However, concerns over cash flow, high valuation, and market challenges reduce its overall appeal. The company's ability to navigate these risks will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow

The overall cocoa beans price normalisation looks underway, likely to fuel solid free cash flow next year.

Price Target

Upside to Price Target is 30.8%, indicating potential for significant stock appreciation.

Valuation

At 10x 12-month forward P/E, valuation looks attractive, reflecting a nearly 60% discount to Barry Callebaut’s ten-year 12-month forward average.

Negative Factors

Earnings

Last week's 1H25 earnings release was disappointing with a significant miss and the FY25 guidance cut.

Profitability

Adjusted net profit of CHF64m came in well below estimates driven by delayed pricing to customers and higher financing costs.

Volume Decline

The 1H25 volume decline of -5% missed expectations as delayed orders from customers should have had a bigger impact than anticipated.

Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) vs. iShares MSCI Switzerland ETF (EWL)

Market Cap

CHF5.77B

Dividend Yield2.73%

Average Volume (3M)21.69K

Price to Earnings (P/E)40.1

Beta (1Y)0.65

Revenue Growth45.87%

EPS Growth-49.83%

CountryCH

Employees13,239

SectorConsumer Defensive

Sector Strength55

IndustryFood Confectioners

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)5.85

Shares Outstanding5,488,858

10 Day Avg. Volume23,235

30 Day Avg. Volume21,693

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.64

Price to Book (P/B)2.10

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-1.73

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

CHF989.29

Price Target Upside-6.93% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Barry Callebaut AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBarry Callebaut AG is a leading global manufacturer of high-quality chocolate and cocoa products. Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, the company operates in the food and beverage sector, providing a comprehensive range of cocoa, chocolate, and confectionery products for industrial and artisanal clients worldwide. Barry Callebaut serves major food manufacturers, professional users, and retailers with a strong commitment to innovation, sustainability, and quality.

How the Company Makes MoneyBarry Callebaut AG generates revenue primarily through the sale of cocoa and chocolate products to a diverse customer base, including large food manufacturers, artisanal chocolatiers, and retailers. The company's key revenue streams include sales of cocoa products such as cocoa powder, butter, and liquor, as well as finished chocolate products. Additionally, Barry Callebaut offers specialty products and services, including tailor-made chocolate solutions, decorations, and fillings. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with major food companies and focuses on expanding its global footprint through acquisitions and sustainable sourcing initiatives. By investing in innovation and sustainability, Barry Callebaut enhances its product offerings and maintains a competitive edge in the market.

Barry Callebaut AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 10, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 0.76%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted Barry Callebaut's strategic advancements and financial stability through its investment program and secured liquidity. However, significant challenges from cocoa bean price volatility, increased operational costs, and volume declines weighed heavily on financial performance. The company is navigating these challenges with delayed cost savings implementation.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Progress in Next Level Investment Program

Barry Callebaut has achieved 40% of the CHF250 million synergy target, with 36% of SKUs phased out and significant advancements in factory footprint optimization and digital initiatives.

Secured Liquidity and Financial Stability

The company successfully raised financing through a CHF300 million Swiss bond and an oversubscribed EUR1.8 billion bond, maintaining a strong balance sheet and comfortable liquidity.

Growth in Gourmet and Specialty Chocolates

Gourmet business showed resilience with a 0.7% volume growth, rebounding to 3.1% in the second quarter. Specialty Chocolates saw positive growth with a double-digit improvement in North America, EMEA, and Latin America.

Negative Updates

Significant Impact of Cocoa Bean Price Volatility

Bean prices nearly doubled year-on-year, leading to increased financing costs and market structure expenses, impacting short-term financial performance.

Volume Decline Driven by Market Dynamics

Overall volume decreased by 4.7% in the first half, with notable declines in Global Cocoa and Global Chocolate segments due to high bean prices and customer behaviors.

High Financing and Operational Costs

Financing costs increased by CHF125 million year-on-year due to higher bean prices and margin calls, coupled with operational challenges leading to a decline in net profit.

Delayed Implementation of Cost Savings

Due to market volatility, there is a 12-month delay in fully realizing the Next Level program's cost savings in the P&L.

Company Guidance

During the call, Barry Callebaut provided guidance on various metrics. They anticipate a mid-single-digit decrease in sales volume due to a challenging environment but are maintaining their commitment to double-digit recurring EBIT growth in local currencies. The company has faced increased financing costs, which rose by CHF125 million year-on-year, primarily due to unprecedented cocoa bean price volatility. The bean price nearly doubled, significantly impacting customer behavior and financial performance. Despite these challenges, Barry Callebaut has secured additional liquidity through euro and Swiss bond issuances and has over 70% of their orders booked for the fiscal year. They are progressing with their Next Level cost savings plan, having achieved 40% of the targeted CHF250 million in synergies, although the full impact on the bottom line is delayed by 12 months due to current market disruptions. The company has also committed to ensuring the dividend per share will not be lower than in fiscal year '23-'24 during the transition period.

Barry Callebaut AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Barry Callebaut AG shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency. However, increasing financial leverage and cash flow challenges are potential risks. The cash flow situation is concerning with negative free cash flow, and the company needs to address these issues for financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

Barry Callebaut AG has demonstrated solid revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains strong, but there has been a decline in net profit margin due to reduced net income. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's financial leverage has increased, as shown by a higher debt-to-equity ratio, indicating rising debt levels. Despite this, the equity ratio remains reasonable, and the return on equity is satisfactory, reflecting the company's ability to generate profits from its equity base.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow situation is concerning, with a negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. This could challenge the company's ability to finance its operations and growth without external funding. However, the historical ability to maintain free cash flow to net income ratio shows some resilience.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.39B	8.47B	8.09B	7.21B	6.89B
Gross Profit	1.38B	1.35B	1.22B	1.15B	1.06B
EBITDA	710.41M	901.65M	778.83M	791.98M	703.71M
Net Income	189.78M	444.36M	360.70M	383.94M	316.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.27B	8.52B	7.93B	7.35B	7.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	978.35M	488.33M	880.02M	1.10B	1.39B
Total Debt	4.80B	1.80B	2.08B	2.38B	2.76B
Total Liabilities	12.43B	5.63B	5.03B	4.67B	4.85B
Stockholders Equity	2.84B	2.90B	2.90B	2.68B	2.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.35B	-456.69M	189.07M	428.66M	271.61M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.06B	-215.10M	464.96M	704.08M	552.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-280.93M	-230.99M	-301.68M	-265.01M	-304.93M
Financing Cash Flow	2.77B	-555.00M	-381.50M	-618.98M	591.13M

Barry Callebaut AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price1063.00

Price Trends

50DMA

877.09

Positive

100DMA

925.78

Positive

200DMA

1078.99

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

45.94

Negative

RSI

71.79

Negative

STOCH

98.38

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:BARN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1063 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 942.57, above the 50-day MA of 877.09, and below the 200-day MA of 1078.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 45.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.79 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:BARN.

Barry Callebaut AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LISN	70 Outperform	CHF28.40B	44.25		1.25%	7.37%	-5.49%
EMMN	70 Outperform	CHF4.06B	18.41	19.01%	2.19%	2.51%	18.26%
NESN	69 Neutral	$187.38B	19.41	32.66%	4.16%	-1.32%	-6.27%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$27.19B	15.58	-4.44%	2.56%	1.05%	4.97%
BARN	64 Neutral	CHF5.77B	40.07		2.73%	45.87%	-49.83%
ARYN	64 Neutral	CHF1.98B	20.38	30.84%	―	―	―
GIVN	64 Neutral	CHF33.35B	30.47		1.98%	5.93%	6.00%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CH:BARN

Barry Callebaut AG

1,063.00

-310.89

-22.63%

CH:ARYN

ARYZTA AG

78.45

10.85

16.05%

CH:NESN

Nestlé SA

73.32

-11.55

-13.61%

CH:GIVN

Givaudan SA

3,541.00

-579.94

-14.07%

CH:LISN

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG

120,000.00

12,994.51

12.14%

CH:EMMN

Emmi AG

753.00

-148.52

-16.47%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025