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Dufry Ag Lse (CH:AVOL)
:AVOL

Dufry AG (AVOL) AI Stock Analysis

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Dufry AG

(LSE:AVOL)

74Outperform
Dufry AG's strong financial performance and positive earnings call contribute significantly to its stock score, indicating a well-managed company with growth potential. However, high P/E valuation and leverage present risks. Technical indicators show moderate momentum, but caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions.

Dufry AG (AVOL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Dufry AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDufry AG is a leading global travel retailer headquartered in Basel, Switzerland. The company operates an extensive network of duty-free and duty-paid stores located in airports, seaports, railway stations, and other travel hubs across over 60 countries. Dufry's product offerings include a wide range of categories such as perfumes and cosmetics, food and confectionery, wine and spirits, tobacco, electronics, and fashion accessories. The company's strategic focus is on enhancing the travel experience by providing a comprehensive selection of high-quality products tailored to the needs of international travelers.
How the Company Makes MoneyDufry AG generates revenue primarily through the sale of goods in its retail locations, which are strategically positioned in high-traffic travel environments. The company's key revenue streams include duty-free and duty-paid retail sales, with a significant portion coming from airport stores, which are the largest segment of its operations. Dufry collaborates with airport authorities, landlords, and brand partners to secure retail space and offer a diverse product range. The company also benefits from long-term concession agreements that allow it to operate in prime locations. Additionally, Dufry has expanded its digital capabilities to enhance its omnichannel presence, offering travelers the convenience of pre-ordering products online for pick-up at the store, thus complementing its traditional retail operations. This integrated approach and strategic partnerships with major airports and brands are critical factors contributing to Dufry's earnings.

Dufry AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dufry AG shows strong revenue growth and improving profitability, with efficient cash flow management. However, significant leverage remains a risk, which could affect financial stability in volatile markets.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Dufry AG has shown strong revenue growth, increasing from 2022 to 2023 by approximately 86%, and from 2023 to 2024 by around 7%. The gross profit margin stands at 64.11% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved to 0.75% in 2024, showing a turnaround from previous losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect positive trends, with EBIT margin at 6.81% and EBITDA margin at 20.72% in 2024. However, historical net income volatility poses a risk.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 5.07, highlighting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed well. Return on equity improved to 4.39% in 2024, demonstrating better profitability. The equity ratio of 13.50% suggests moderate financial stability, but the company remains highly leveraged, which could impact its ability to withstand financial downturns.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Dufry AG's free cash flow has consistently grown, showing a 10.66% increase from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 25.29, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio also shows a robust figure of 20.60, reflecting solid cash flow management. These metrics suggest a healthy cash flow position, supporting ongoing operations and investments.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
13.72B12.79B6.88B3.92B2.56B
Gross Profit
8.80B3.92B4.19B2.21B1.38B
EBIT
934.00M865.00M-502.40M-66.20M-2.50B
EBITDA
2.84B2.47B1.62B1.13B-807.80M
Net Income Common Stockholders
103.00M87.30M58.20M-385.40M-2.51B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
756.00M769.50M854.70M793.50M360.30M
Total Assets
17.40B16.51B9.31B9.99B11.26B
Total Debt
11.91B11.19B6.58B7.45B9.12B
Net Debt
11.15B10.48B5.72B6.66B8.76B
Total Liabilities
14.88B14.02B8.34B8.96B10.34B
Stockholders Equity
2.35B2.36B893.00M956.60M839.30M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.12B1.92B1.40B587.00M-464.30M
Operating Cash Flow
2.60B2.36B1.51B678.20M-345.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-312.00M-1.00M-67.40M-72.80M-74.90M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.18B-2.40B-1.34B-136.20M257.00M

Dufry AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price43.14
Price Trends
50DMA
38.28
Positive
100DMA
38.53
Positive
200DMA
36.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.69
Negative
RSI
75.68
Negative
STOCH
87.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CH:AVOL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.35, above the 50-day MA of 38.28, and above the 200-day MA of 36.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CH:AVOL.

Dufry AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
CHF6.22B58.034.37%1.72%7.31%30.75%
61
Neutral
$6.58B11.813.06%3.99%2.54%-21.54%
CHLMN
58
Neutral
$139.41M8.9833.95%4.56%-3.50%117.86%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CH:AVOL
Dufry AG
42.44
6.54
18.21%
CH:LMN
lastminute
12.60
-8.21
-39.46%

Dufry AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 12.75%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Avolta's strong revenue growth, EBITDA margin expansion, significant increase in equity free cash flow, and successful debt reduction and shareholder returns. However, challenges in North America due to external factors and concerns about a U.S. passenger slowdown were noted. Overall, the positive highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a favorable outlook.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Growth Metrics
Total turnover growth at constant exchange rate was 8.9% for 2024, with organic growth of 6.3%. Excluding Argentina, organic growth was 7.7%.
EBITDA Margin Expansion
Core EBITDA increased faster than revenues, with the EBITDA margin expanding by 40 basis points from 9% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2024.
Significant Increase in Equity Free Cash Flow
Equity free cash flow reached CHF425 million, a 32% increase, with an equity free cash flow conversion of 33.5%.
Successful Debt Reduction and Shareholder Returns
Net debt to EBITDA dropped to 2.1, a 0.6 improvement from the prior year. A share buyback program was completed, canceling 4% of shares, and a new buyback program was announced for 2025. The dividend is proposed to increase by 43%.
Digital and Commercial Transformation Progress
The company is consistently delivering on commercial and digital transformation, with strong business development and good opportunities for 2025.
Operational Highlights by Region
EMEA showed 9.4% organic growth, North America had 5.6% growth despite challenges, Latin America grew 7% excluding Argentina, and Asia Pacific had more than 12% like-for-like growth.
Negative Updates
Challenges in North America
North America faced challenges such as plane delivery delays, capacity constraints at key airports, and extreme weather conditions, impacting growth.
Impact of External Geopolitical Factors
The Nordics were affected by restrictions on Russian aerospace due to the Ukraine war, impacting growth in that region.
Concerns about U.S. Passenger Slowdown
There is concern about a slowdown in U.S. passengers, which could impact growth, although other regions are expected to compensate.
Company Guidance
In the call, Avolta's guidance for fiscal year 2024 showed robust performance metrics, highlighting an 8.9% turnover growth at constant exchange rates, with organic growth at 6.3% and 7.7% when excluding Argentina. The company enhanced its EBITDA margin by 40 basis points to 9.4%, while equity free cash flow surged by 32% to CHF425 million, achieving a conversion rate of 33.5%. They also emphasized their strategic focus on shareholders' returns, with a proposed dividend increase of 43% to CHF1 per share and a new share buyback program of CHF200 million for 2025. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 2.1, or 1.9 when excluding the share buyback effect. Avolta's geographic and channel diversification was underscored, with EMEA contributing CHF6.9 billion in sales and significant growth noted in all regions, including 9.4% in EMEA and 5.6% in North America. The company also highlighted ongoing digital transformation initiatives and a strong start to 2025, with a 7.7% organic growth rate noted when adjusting for the leap year effect.

Dufry AG Corporate Events

Avolta AG Expands Presence at JFK Terminal 5 with New Contracts
May 5, 2025

Avolta AG has secured two significant contracts at JFK International Airport’s Terminal 5, involving a 10-year deal to revamp dining experiences and a seven-year contract for a new retail store and gaming lounge. These developments, awarded by Fraport USA and supported by JetBlue, aim to elevate the traveler experience by introducing New York-inspired dining and retail concepts, including a video gaming lounge, further expanding Avolta’s footprint at JFK.

Avolta AG Announces Q1 Trading Update Presentation
May 2, 2025

Avolta AG has announced an upcoming Q1 Trading Update Presentation scheduled for May 15, 2025. The presentation, hosted by CEO Xavier Rossinyol and CFO Yves Gerster, will be accessible via webcast and phone, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance for the first quarter of 2025.

Avolta AG Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting
Apr 10, 2025

Avolta AG has announced its upcoming Annual General Meeting, scheduled for May 14, 2025, at the Messe und Congress Center Basel in Switzerland. This meeting is a significant event for shareholders and stakeholders, as it will provide insights into the company’s strategic direction and future initiatives.

Avolta AG Expands APAC Presence with New Contract at Shanghai Pudong Airport
Apr 2, 2025

Avolta AG has announced its expansion in the Asia Pacific region by securing a new contract for multiple outlets at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. This expansion, which includes a mix of retail and dining options, is part of Avolta’s strategic goals to enhance its presence in key travel hubs and provide unique experiences to travelers. The collaboration with Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd is expected to open in the first half of 2025, marking a significant step in Avolta’s growth and commitment to innovation in global travel retail and F&B.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.