CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $960.31M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 14.46%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 644
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 51,216,343
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 957,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,123,784
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.66K
• 1Y Price Target: $25.00
• Price Target Upside: 33.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $417.69M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(1.33% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by improving cash generation and a conservative balance sheet, plus supportive 2026 growth/margin/EBITDA guidance from the latest earnings call. Offsetting these positives are inconsistent GAAP profitability and weak near-term technical momentum, with limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Product & Pipeline Leadership

CareDx is broadening its addressable market and clinical footprint via new tests, EU IVDR certification, and promising Allaheme cell‑therapy surveillance data. These durable product and regulatory advances diversify revenue streams and strengthen its clinical differentiation in transplant diagnostics.

Strong Balance Sheet & Low Leverage

A conservative capital structure with substantial cash and minimal debt provides lasting financial flexibility to fund R&D, commercial expansion, and systems investments. It also supports continued buybacks and absorbs reimbursement shocks without immediate liquidity strain.

Improving Cash Generation & RCM

Material improvement in collections and positive operating/free cash flow demonstrates lasting improvement in working capital management and RCM execution. Steadier cash generation underpins reinvestment capacity and reduces reliance on external financing for growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Reimbursement & Coverage Risk

Payer actions (draft LCDs and PLA code cuts) pose structural risk to per‑test reimbursement and coverage. Because revenue is fee‑for‑service, persistent or expanded reimbursement reductions could materially erode margins and test economics for transplant diagnostics over multiple quarters.

Inconsistent GAAP Profitability

Volatile GAAP results indicate sensitivity to one‑time items, litigation impacts and reimbursement shifts. This inconsistency complicates long‑term planning, weakens return on equity, and creates uncertainty over whether non‑GAAP improvements are sustainable through operating cycles and regulatory headwinds.

Near‑term Investment & OpEx Pressure

Necessary enterprise system investments increase fixed costs and implementation risk, pressuring near‑term margins and adjusted EBITDA. If integrations take longer or cost more, recurring expense inflation could persistently depress profitability during scaling and limit free cash available for other strategic uses.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and related services. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where healthcare providers and institutions pay for each test performed. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of AlloSure and AlloMap tests, as well as ongoing contracts with transplant centers and hospitals that utilize these products for patient monitoring. Additionally, CareDx benefits from partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions that seek to enhance their understanding of transplant biology and improve patient care. The company also invests in expanding its test menu and capabilities, which can lead to new revenue opportunities as the demand for transplant diagnostics continues to grow.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue has grown over time and recent operating/free cash flow turned positive, supported by low leverage and a solid equity base. The main drag is earnings volatility (profitability swung from strong in 2024 back to a net loss in 2025) and uncertainty in reported 2025 gross profit/margin in the financial statement data.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded over time (2020: $192.2M to 2025: $379.8M), with growth rebounding in 2025 (6.1%) after a small 2024 increase. Profitability, however, is inconsistent: 2024 posted solid net profitability (~15.7% margin) but 2025 returned to a net loss (~-5.6% margin) and negative operating profit. Gross margin was strong in most prior years (~64–67%), but the 2025 gross profit/margin is reported as 0, which creates uncertainty around underlying cost performance for that period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks relatively conservative with low leverage across the period (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.05–0.13; 2025 at ~0.065) and a sizable equity base ($303.1M in 2025). Total debt is modest ($19.7M in 2025). The key weakness is returns: equity returns have been volatile and often negative (including a very weak 2023), reflecting uneven profitability and reducing the quality of the equity base despite the low debt load.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in the most recent periods: 2024 and 2025 produced positive operating cash flow ($38.0M and $42.0M) and positive free cash flow ($31.6M and $42.0M), with 2025 free cash flow up 13.3%. Earlier years show instability, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2023. Overall, the business appears capable of generating cash, but the pattern is uneven and sensitive to operating performance swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	379.81M	333.79M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M
Gross Profit	254.43M	224.16M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M
EBITDA	-667.00K	-33.99M	-84.92M	-61.22M	-17.84M
Net Income	-21.35M	52.55M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	413.23M	491.05M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	177.21M	260.65M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M
Total Debt	19.68M	28.37M	34.22M	39.00M	21.35M
Total Liabilities	110.13M	112.62M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M
Stockholders Equity	303.10M	378.43M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	36.12M	31.56M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M
Operating Cash Flow	42.03M	38.05M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M
Investing Cash Flow	2.16M	-483.00K	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M
Financing Cash Flow	-93.39M	-5.61M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.23, below the 50-day MA of 19.58, and above the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSTL	60 Neutral	$829.80M	-46.67	-5.21%	―	10.15%	-295.52%
CDNA	56 Neutral	$960.31M	-47.01	24.11%	―	14.46%	―
PSNL	53 Neutral	$895.65M	-8.74	-35.02%	―	-21.02%	47.74%
NEO	52 Neutral	$1.19B	-2.79	-12.42%	―	10.10%	-44.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
FLGT	49 Neutral	$445.04M	-13.36	-5.39%	―	13.60%	74.64%
MYGN	48 Neutral	$479.70M	-1.57	-68.45%	―	0.21%	-233.51%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Names New CFO Amid Strong Q4 2025 Results

CareDx reported on February 24, 2026 that its board appointed Keith Kennedy as chief financial officer and chief operating officer effective February 26, 2026, also naming him principal financial and accounting officer. Kennedy, a seasoned finance and operations executive with prior leadership roles at PharmaLogic, Veracyte, MCG Capital and GE Capital, has served as CareDx’s COO since September 2024, and his expanded remit consolidates financial and operational oversight following the planned CFO transition.

The company also disclosed that Nathan Smith resigned as chief financial officer for personal reasons effective at the close of business on February 25, 2026, noting his departure was not tied to any dispute over financial reporting. Smith will receive a separation package including a cash payment equal to nine months of base salary, his 2025 bonus, limited COBRA premium reimbursement and partial vesting of restricted stock units, indicating an orderly leadership change aimed at minimizing disruption for investors and employees.

In a separate February 24, 2026 announcement, CareDx reported fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue of $108 million, up 25% year over year, with testing services, patient and digital solutions and product revenue all posting double‑digit growth. Despite a GAAP net loss of $4 million in the quarter and $21 million for the year, the company generated $7 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, $32 million for 2025 and positive operating cash flow, reflecting underlying profitability once prior‑year litigation reversals and non‑cash items are excluded.

For full‑year 2025, revenue rose 14% to $380 million, driven by testing services revenue of $275 million and strong gains in patient, digital and product lines, while non‑GAAP net income reached $32 million and cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities stood at about $201 million after $88 million of share repurchases. Management highlighted steady demand across its transplant testing and digital platforms, pointing to both operational discipline and balance‑sheet strength as the group continues to invest in new diagnostics and workflow integrations.

CareDx also unveiled recent business developments including publication of new clinical data supporting its HeartCare offering, progress with Epic Aura integrations at transplant centers and the launch of the ImmuneScape multiomics platform through collaboration with 10x Genomics. The company further announced pivotal validation data for its AlloHeme test, marking a strategic expansion beyond solid‑organ transplantation into cell therapy and hematologic malignancies that could broaden its addressable market and reinforce its leadership in transplant and organ‑health diagnostics.

The company posted an updated corporate presentation dated February 24, 2026 on its website to reflect its latest financial and operational status. Together with the leadership transition and detailed financial results, these updates underscore CareDx’s effort to communicate its evolving strategy and performance to shareholders, clinicians and other stakeholders in a rapidly developing precision medicine landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.

CareDx Wins Preliminary Court Approval for Derivative Settlement

On September 26, 2025, CareDx, Inc. reached an agreement in principle to settle a shareholder derivative lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, consolidating claims that current and former directors and officers issued materially false and misleading statements about the company’s testing services and failed in their fiduciary oversight duties. On December 9, 2025, the court granted preliminary approval of the proposed settlement, authorized notice to current CareDx shareholders of record as of September 26, 2025, and scheduled a hearing for June 30, 2026 to consider final approval, a step that, if confirmed, would resolve both the federal derivative action and related Delaware Chancery litigation without any direct compensation process for individual shareholders, while potentially reducing ongoing legal uncertainty stemming from these governance and disclosure disputes.

The most recent analyst rating on (CDNA) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CareDx stock, see the CDNA Stock Forecast page.