CareDx (CDNA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.19B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 908.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.68
• Revenue Growth: 19.07%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 643
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: Medical Diagnostics & Screening
• EPS (TTM): 1.02
• Shares Outstanding: 55,425,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 940,213
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 908,642
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.80
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 23.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $27.83
• Price Target Upside: 37.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

CareDx presents a mixed outlook with a notable strength in its recent financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company has shown strong revenue growth and improved profitability, supported by strategic expansions and operational efficiencies. However, technical indicators suggest caution with current stock momentum, and valuation is moderate with no dividend yield. The overall score reflects a balanced view of these factors, highlighting the company's growth potential while acknowledging short-term operational and market-related challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenue grew 30% YoY in 4Q24; $370M in revenue anticipated for 2025.

Product Development

CareDx’s upcoming release of its quality reporting software XynQAPI is designed to allow transplant centers to monitor their IOTA performance score in real-time with no manual data entry required.

Negative Factors

Market Risks

Investment risks include failure of AlloMap and AlloSure tests to achieve commercial success due to market size, penetration rate, reimbursement and/or competition.

CareDx Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) is a leading precision medicine company dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of clinically differentiated, high-value healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers. With a focus on improving long-term outcomes in transplant recipients, CareDx provides non-invasive diagnostic solutions, including testing services, products, and digital healthcare solutions, primarily in the United States. The company operates in the biotechnology sector, leveraging advanced technologies to offer comprehensive and personalized insights that enhance patient care.

How the Company Makes Money

CareDx generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic testing services and products tailored for transplant patients. The company's key revenue streams include the AlloSure and AlloMap tests, which are proprietary molecular diagnostic solutions utilized to monitor organ transplant recipients. These tests are designed to detect organ rejection and assess the health of transplanted organs, thus improving patient management and outcomes. CareDx also earns income from partnerships and collaborations with healthcare providers, research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies, which contribute to its service offerings and market reach. Additionally, the company offers digital health solutions that provide patient management tools and data analytics services, adding to its revenue portfolio. The combination of these diverse revenue streams enables CareDx to maintain a robust financial model focused on innovation and superior patient care.

CareDx Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CareDx demonstrates potential with growing revenues and a strong equity base, yet faces challenges in achieving profitability. The company's strategic focus on improving cash flows and maintaining low leverage is promising, but continued operational losses and negative shareholder return remain areas of concern.

Income Statement

CareDx's revenue has shown a moderate increase from the previous periods, with a revenue growth rate of 11.57% from 2023 to TTM 2024. However, the company is still operating at a net loss, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -45.89% for TTM 2024. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 65.14%, indicating efficient cost management. Despite these positives, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins show operational struggles.

Balance Sheet

CareDx maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 57.29% in TTM 2024, reflecting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.11, indicating low financial leverage risk. However, the negative return on equity of -52.54% highlights ongoing profitability challenges impacting shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

The company has shown improvement in cash flow management, with a shift to positive free cash flow in TTM 2024. The free cash flow growth rate is significant, turning around from negative to positive numbers. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.05, suggesting that cash generation from operations is still insufficient to cover net losses.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
314.86M	280.32M	321.79M	296.40M	192.19M	127.07M
	Gross Profit
208.60M	178.32M	209.58M	199.01M	129.08M	81.61M
	EBIT
-64.90M	-203.36M	-77.23M	-29.73M	-17.71M	-24.53M
	EBITDA
-51.30M	-89.66M	-61.22M	-17.84M	-10.21M	-19.01M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-69.39M	-190.28M	-76.61M	-30.66M	-18.71M	-21.97M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
235.42M	235.42M	293.09M	348.49M	224.70M	38.22M
	Total Assets
466.83M	466.83M	542.99M	566.62M	368.51M	151.74M
	Total Debt
34.22M	34.22M	39.00M	17.39M	16.07M	3.02M
	Net Debt
-47.98M	-47.98M	-50.92M	-331.09M	-118.60M	-35.21M
	Total Liabilities
205.50M	205.50M	112.08M	100.75M	90.83M	52.74M
	Stockholders Equity
261.33M	261.33M	430.91M	465.88M	277.68M	99.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-45.48M	-27.63M	-49.57M	-39.55M	23.07M	-6.12M
	Operating Cash Flow
-20.80M	-18.39M	-25.24M	-19.29M	33.43M	-2.77M
	Investing Cash Flow
-142.82M	40.45M	-228.50M	47.71M	-100.39M	-22.58M
	Financing Cash Flow
-5.10M	-29.61M	-4.54M	185.64M	163.15M	-132.00K

CareDx Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CDNA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.78, below the 50-day MA of 22.50, and below the 200-day MA of 22.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CDNA.

CareDx Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NTRA	68 Neutral	$19.35B	―	-15.93%	―	56.75%	59.77%
CDNA	68 Neutral	$1.19B	20.77	13.89%	―	19.07%	―
EXAS	53 Neutral	$8.83B	―	-42.83%	―	10.37%	-389.98%
GH	53 Neutral	$5.12B	―	312.48%	―	31.04%	16.91%
MYGN	51 Neutral	$976.81M	―	-15.85%	―	12.15%	61.33%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$7.05B	0.34	-55.09%	2.46%	25.27%	-3.43%
ILMN	49 Neutral	$13.45B	―	-51.54%	―	-2.93%	-4.69%

CareDx Corporate Events

CareDx Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results and Growth

CareDx announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, reporting a 19% increase in total revenue to $333.8 million. The company saw significant growth in testing services revenue and volume, with a notable improvement in net income and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year. The company also highlighted its strategic focus on expanding testing services and payer coverage, positioning itself for continued growth in 2025. The Board of Directors authorized a common stock repurchase program of up to $50 million, indicating confidence in the company’s financial health and future prospects.

CareDx Announces Strong Revenue Growth and Outlook

CareDx announced its preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting a significant 30% year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter and a full-year revenue projection between $332 million to $333 million. The company anticipates strong growth in 2025 with expected revenue of $370 million, supported by the expansion of its sales and marketing team and continued momentum in kidney surveillance testing. Despite a projected GAAP loss, CareDx achieved positive adjusted EBITDA, indicating operational efficiency and financial health improvements.

CareDx Updates Director Compensation and Vesting Policies

CareDx, Inc. announced amendments to its outside director compensation policy, which include changes to the vesting schedules for stock options and restricted stock unit awards for non-employee directors, ensuring full vesting before the annual stockholders’ meeting if it occurs before the one-year anniversary of the award. Additionally, the company removed quarterly retainers for Michael Goldberg, the Board Chairperson, for his previous role in the Office of the CEO, and updated outdated references to an older equity plan.