Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Risk Analysis

Our products continue to be subject to increasing pressures across the portfolio from pharmaceutical market access and pricing controls, required rebates and other discounts, in the U.S., the EU and other regions around the world that result in lower prices, lower reimbursement rates and smaller populations for whom payers will reimburse. We expect that these market access constraints, pricing controls and discounting and other restrictions will become more acute as public and private payers continue to take aggressive steps to control their expenditures. Our future revenues and profit margins could be negatively affected, including as a result of (i) changes in laws and regulations relating to the pricing and reimbursement of pharmaceutical products (including potential penalties for increasing prices over the rate of inflation and government negotiations/price controls that may change the determination of the "best price" and establish a maximum allowed price/reimbursement rate), as well as other changes relating to federal healthcare programs, such as modifying the federal Anti-Kickback statute discount safe harbor and the IRA, which includes a number of provisions intended to lower the costs of some drugs covered under Medicare Part D and Medicare Part B and to limit Medicare beneficiaries' out-of-pocket spending under the Medicare Part D benefit, (ii) cost-cutting measures by federal healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, MCOs and other institutional and governmental purchasers, (iii) the grant of additional authority to governmental agencies to manage drug utilization and negotiate drug prices (including the implementation of the 2020 regulation issued by the U.S. federal government authorizing states and private parties to develop and implement programs to import certain prescription drugs from Canada and sell them in the U.S., and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which eliminated the Medicaid Prescription Drug Rebate cap as of January 1, 2024), (iv) expanded utilization and pharmaceutical company restrictions under the 340B Drug Pricing Program ("340B program"), (v) competition related to placements on applicable commercial and Medicare Part D formularies; (vi) changes to U.S. federal pharmaceutical coverage and reimbursement policies and practices, (vii) the increased purchasing power of entities that negotiate on behalf of Medicare, Medicaid and private sector beneficiaries, (viii) the increased scrutiny of drug manufacturers (including any additional review of BMS or Celgene by the House Oversight and Reform Committee), (ix) reimbursement delays, (x) government price erosion mechanisms across Europe, Japan and in other countries resulting in deflation for pharmaceutical product pricing, (xi) collection delays or failures to pay in government-funded public hospitals outside the U.S., (xii) developments in technology and/or industry practices that could impact the reimbursement policies and practices of third-party payers, and (xiii) inhibited market access due to real or perceived differences in value propositions for our products compared to competing products. In particular, the IRA will have the effect of reducing prices and reimbursements for certain of our products, which could significantly impact our business. Under the IRA, the HHS can effectively set prices for units of certain single-source drugs and biologics reimbursed under Medicare Part B, Medicare Advantage and Part D. Generally, these government prices apply nine years (for small molecule drugs) or 13 years (for biological products) following FDA approval and will be capped at a statutory ceiling price that is likely to represent a significant discount from average prices to wholesalers and direct purchasers. In August 2024, as part of the first round of government price setting pursuant to the IRA, the HHS announced the "maximum fair price" for a 30-day equivalent supply of Eliquis, which applies to the U.S. Medicare channel effective January 1, 2026. In January 2025, the HHS selected Pomalyst as a medicine subject to "negotiation" for government-set prices beginning in 2027. It is possible that more of our products could be selected in future years, which could, among other things, accelerate revenue erosion prior to expiry of intellectual property protections. Failure to comply with requirements under the price setting process is subject to an excise tax and/or a civil monetary penalty. The IRA also generally requires drug manufacturers to provide rebates for Medicare Part B and Part D medicines if the price of a Part B or Part D drug increases faster than the rate of inflation. As of January 2025, under the IRA, the Part D benefit redesign replaced the 70 percent CGDP discount with a 10 percent manufacturer discount for all Medicare Part D beneficiaries that have met their deductible and incurred out of pocket drug costs below a $2,000 threshold and a 20 percent discount for beneficiaries that have incurred out of pocket drug costs above the $2,000 threshold under the new Part D benefit redesign. Manufacturers that fail to comply with the IRA may be subject to various penalties, including civil monetary penalties, which could be significant. The IRA has and will continue to meaningfully impact our business strategies and those of others in the pharmaceutical industry. The full impact of the IRA on our business and the pharmaceutical industry, including the implications to us of our or a competitor's product being selected for price setting, remains uncertain. At the state level, multiple states have passed, are pursuing or are considering government action via legislation or regulations to change drug pricing and reimbursement (e.g., establishing prescription drug affordability boards, implementing manufacturer mandates tied to the Federal Public Health Service Act drug pricing program, etc.). Some of these state-level actions may also influence federal and other state policies and legislation. Given the current uncertainty surrounding the adoption, timing and implementation of many of these measures, as well as pending litigation challenging such laws, we are unable to predict their full impact on our business. However, such measures could modify or decrease access, coverage, or reimbursement of our products, or result in significant changes to our sales or pricing practices, which could have a material impact on our revenues and results of operations. With respect to the Federal Public Health Service Act drug pricing program, certain states have enacted laws regulating manufacturer pricing obligations under the program to date. Several additional states are considering similar potential legislation or other government actions, and we expect other states may do the same in the future. Further, commercial payers often consider Medicare coverage policy and payment limitations when setting their own payment rates. Any reduction in cost or other containment measures may similarly be adopted by commercial plans. Coverage policies and reimbursement rates for commercial plans may change at any time. Additionally, manufacturers who are found to have knowingly and intentionally overcharged 340B program covered entities could be subject to significant monetary penalties. Over the course of the past few years, Celgene had received inquiries from the Health Resources and Services Administration regarding the limited distribution networks for Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Thalomid and compliance with the 340B program. As part of our broader integration strategy and alignment of our distribution model (post our acquisition of Celgene) we had announced that beginning March 1, 2022, we would generally recognize up to two designated 340B program contract pharmacy locations per 340B program hospital that lacks an entity-owned pharmacy. We then updated this policy effective July 1, 2024, to generally recognize up to four contract pharmacy locations per 340B program hospital that lacks an entity-owned pharmacy. Multiple states have enacted laws generally prohibiting manufacturer policies restricting recognition of contract pharmacy arrangements and provide for certain penalties for violations. Such laws have been subject to legal challenges. Whether or how such laws may impact our business remains uncertain. Although we believe that we have complied with, and continue to comply with, all applicable legal requirements, additional legal or legislative changes with respect to the 340B program may cause us to update our approach. Significant changes to our sales or pricing practices with regard to the distribution of drugs under the 340B program, or any material changes in our U.S. payer channel mix, could have an adverse effect on our revenues and profitability. In addition, if we are required to pay penalties under the applicable regulations, there would be an adverse effect on our revenues and profitability. For additional information on pricing pressures and other constraints, refer to "Item 1. Business-Pricing, Price Constraints and Market Access."

We derive a majority of our revenue and earnings from several key products. We expect that Eliquis, Opdivo, Orencia and Yervoy will represent a significant percentage of our revenue, earnings and cash flows during the next few years. A reduction in revenue from any of these products due to loss of market exclusivity or other factors could adversely impact our earnings and cash flows. For additional information, see "-We could lose market exclusivity of a product earlier than expected." Also, if one of our major products were to become subject to issues, such as loss of patent protection, significant changes in demand, formulary access changes, material product liability, unexpected side effects, regulatory proceedings, negative publicity, supply disruption from our manufacturing operations or third-party supplier or a significant advancement of competing products, we may incur an adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations or the trading price of our stock. In addition, in the U.S., most of our products are distributed through wholesalers, and if one of these wholesalers should encounter financial or other difficulties, we might be unable to timely collect the amounts that the wholesaler owes us, which could negatively impact our results of operations. We expect that consolidation and integration of pharmacy chains, wholesalers and pharmacy benefit managers will increase competitive and pricing pressures on pharmaceutical manufacturers, including us.

We and certain of our subsidiaries are, and in the future may be, involved in various legal proceedings, including patent litigation, such as claims that our patents are invalid, unenforceable and/or do not cover the product of the generic drug manufacturer or where third parties seek damages and/or injunctive relief to compensate for alleged infringement of their patents by our commercial or other activities. Resolving an intellectual property infringement or other claim can be costly and time consuming and may require us to enter into license agreements, which may not be available on commercially reasonable terms. A successful claim of patent or other intellectual property infringement could subject us to significant damages and/or an injunction preventing the manufacture, sale, or use of the affected product or products. Any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our profitability and financial condition.

Our product supply and related patient access has been, and could in the future be, negatively impacted by difficulties, delays and disruptions in the manufacturing, distribution and sale of our products. Some of the difficulties, delays and disruptions include: (i) product seizures or recalls or forced closings of manufacturing plants; (ii) our failure, or the failure of any of our vendors or suppliers, to comply with cGMP and other applicable regulations or quality assurance guidelines that could lead to manufacturing shutdowns, product shortages or delays in product manufacturing; (iii) manufacturing, quality assurance/quality control, supply problems or governmental approval delays; (iv) the failure of a supplier, including sole source or single source suppliers, to provide us with the necessary raw materials, supplies or finished goods within a reasonable timeframe and with required quality; (v) the failure of a third-party manufacturer to supply us with bulk active or finished product on time; (vi) construction or regulatory approval delays for new facilities or the expansion of existing facilities, including those intended to support future demand for our biologics products; (vii) the failure to meet new and emerging regulations requiring products to be tracked throughout the distribution channels using unique identifiers to verify their authenticity in the supply chain; (viii) other manufacturing or distribution issues, including limits to manufacturing capacity and changes in the types of products produced, such as biologics, physical limitations, labor disputes or shortages, or other business interruptions; (ix) geopolitical factors in a specific country or region, including any new, or changes in or interpretations of existing, trade regulations, including for example, any new tariffs imposed in the jurisdictions in which we operate, or compliance requirements of other legislation; and (x) disruptions in supply chain continuity, including from market forces, natural disasters, global disease outbreaks or pandemics (including COVID-19), acts of war or terrorism or other unforeseeable or unavoidable events that materially impact one or more of our facilities or a critical supplier. In addition, manufacturing processes for novel cell-based therapies, such as CAR-T cell therapies, are still evolving, and our processes may be more complicated or more expensive than the approaches taken by our current and future competitors. Our ability to source raw materials and supplies used to manufacture our CAR-T cell therapies and to develop consistent and reliable manufacturing processes and distribution networks with an attractive cost of goods could impact future anticipated revenue and gross profit for our CAR-T cell therapies. Furthermore, we may face challenges with sourcing raw materials and supplies for clinical and, if approved, commercial manufacturing. Logistical and shipment delays and other factors not in our control could prevent or delay the delivery of our product candidates and marketed products to patients. Additionally, we are required to maintain a complex chain of identity and custody with respect to patient material as such material enters into and moves through the manufacturing process. As a result, even slight deviations at any point in the production process for our CAR-T cell therapies or in material used in our CAR-T cell therapies could result in loss of product or regulatory remedial action, which could adversely affect our future anticipated revenues and/or profitability related to our CAR-T cell therapies.