Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 329.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 47.83%
• EPS Growth: -432.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.94
• Shares Outstanding: 54,218,025
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 285,098
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 329,236
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.75
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 2.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 327.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

The overall score reflects Bridger Aerospace's strong revenue growth and operational improvements, countered by persistent net losses and a challenging valuation. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, but the company’s strategic initiatives and leadership changes provide a positive outlook. Continued focus on improving profitability and cash management will be essential for future performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Bridger Aerospace reported record revenues and improved EBITDA, showing strong financial performance driven by increased flight revenue.

Government Support

Congress appropriated a 46.2% increase in wildland fire management funds in the FY24 budget, indicating strong government support for wildfire suppression efforts.

Market Expansion

The company is expanding its business portfolio into broader government services, which could reduce seasonality and open new revenue streams.

Negative Factors

Operational Costs

Gross margin decreased due to increased depreciation, maintenance, insurance, and travel expenses associated with higher aircraft utilization and inflationary pressures.

Unresolved Financing

The financing of Spanish scoopers is still to be determined, which could impact financial outcomes if not resolved favorably.

Wildfire Activity

California revenue associated with by-the-hour wildfire suppression operations is likely lower than anticipated due to the aircraft remaining in standby mode.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through contracts with government agencies and private entities for its aerial firefighting services. The company's key revenue streams include fees for deploying their fleet of aircraft, which are equipped for fire suppression, reconnaissance, and other emergency management tasks. Bridger Aerospace also benefits from long-term service agreements and partnerships with federal and state firefighting agencies, ensuring a steady flow of income through both scheduled and emergency deployments. Additionally, the company may engage in supplementary services like training and consulting, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved operational efficiency, as seen in rising margins. While the company has made strides in deleveraging, profitability remains a challenge, with net losses persisting. Cash flow improvements are promising, indicating better cash management and operational health. The balance sheet shows a healthier equity position but requires further strengthening for long-term resilience.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace has shown significant revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $13.4M in 2020 to $98.6M in 2024. However, profitability remains a concern as the company has consistently reported negative net income. The gross profit margin improved to 41.7% in 2024, but net profit margins are negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved from negative figures in previous years to positive in 2024, indicating some operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company has a relatively high debt level, with a debt-to-equity ratio decreasing from 3.51 in 2020 to 0.04 in 2024, indicating significant deleveraging. Stockholders' equity has strengthened, rising to $53.5M in 2024. The equity ratio improved to 18.4% in 2024, showing a better capital structure and reduced financial risk. However, the company needs to further enhance its equity position to ensure long-term financial stability.

Cash Flow

Bridger Aerospace has turned around its cash flow position, with operating cash flow improving to $9.4M in 2024 from negative figures in previous years. Free cash flow is now positive, at $5.3M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates good cash generation ability despite negative net income. Continued positive cash flow trends will be crucial for future growth and financial health.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
	Gross Profit
41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
	EBIT
5.32M	-57.49M	-22.63M	2.75M	-8.86M
	EBITDA
24.84M	-43.44M	-13.01M	9.26M	-6.18M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.57M	-77.36M	-61.62M	-17.00M	-13.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
	Total Assets
290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
	Total Debt
2.17M	214.62M	208.69M	60.88M	55.09M
	Net Debt
-37.17M	191.66M	178.53M	47.19M	49.85M
	Total Liabilities
237.33M	246.54M	228.39M	133.25M	69.18M
	Stockholders Equity
53.48M	26.93M	77.59M	61.86M	62.87M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
5.27M	-47.87M	-45.31M	-47.74M	-61.12M
	Operating Cash Flow
9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
	Financing Cash Flow
4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, below the 50-day MA of 1.87, and below the 200-day MA of 2.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HEI	78 Outperform	$28.63B	58.49	16.18%	0.09%	23.06%	32.43%
TDG	68 Neutral	$70.08B	43.46	-29.16%	―	16.89%	20.33%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$7.16B	12.21	3.05%	3.43%	3.62%	-14.48%
AVAV	58 Neutral	$3.15B	96.99	3.94%	―	5.21%	―
AIR	57 Neutral	$1.81B	246.75	-1.08%	―	21.07%	-120.95%
BAER	50 Neutral	$58.01M	―	-38.72%	―	47.83%	-432.74%
SPR	40 Underperform	$3.40B	―	81.63%	―	4.44%	-202.63%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Appoints Sam Davis as CEO

On March 17, 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced the appointment of Sam Davis as the permanent President and Chief Executive Officer. Davis, who joined the company in 2019, has been instrumental in its transition to a public company and has driven significant revenue growth and operational efficiency. His leadership has been marked by strong top-line growth, increased EBITDA, and positive cash flow, positioning Bridger to effectively manage the year-round threat of wildfires and deliver value to stakeholders.