Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $118.56M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 675.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.0
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: 54.35%
• EPS Growth: 70.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 55,923,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 681,308
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 675,343
• PEG Ratio: -0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.73
• 1Y Price Target: $5.00
• Price Target Upside: 153.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $133.10M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(1.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability recovery and a much cleaner balance sheet) but is held back by cash-flow volatility and weak technical momentum. Positive 2026 guidance and fleet/leadership actions provide support, while valuation appears only moderate with no dividend cushion.

Positive Factors

Return to profitability & healthy margins

Bridger’s 2025 return to positive net income with strong gross (~42%) and EBITDA (~12.5%) margins indicates improved pricing power and operational leverage in its aerial firefighting services. Durable margins support reinvestment and resilience across future fire seasons and contract cycles.

De-levered balance sheet and financing flexibility

Significantly reduced reported debt and meaningful cash plus a $331.5M facility materially improve financial flexibility. This lowers refinancing risk and enables capital deployment for fleet growth, helping sustain expansion and service availability over multiple seasons.

Fleet growth and clear structural demand for scoopers

Fleet additions and scooper acquisitions position Bridger to monetize persistent unmet demand: high unfilled request rates show structural market undersupply. Scoopers and multi-mission aircraft also carry above-average margins (~40%+), supporting durable revenue and profitability expansion.

Negative Factors

Deeply negative free cash flow

A large negative free cash flow outturn in 2025 reflects heavy capex, sale-leaseback timing and working capital swings. Persistent FCF volatility weakens the firm's ability to self-fund fleet growth and increases reliance on debt or equity during off-peak seasons.

Rising maintenance and non-recurring costs

Substantially higher maintenance and return-to-service expenses materially pressure margins and inject earnings volatility. If elevated maintenance persists with fleet aging or rapid scale-up, margin predictability and operating cash conversion will be structurally impaired.

Seasonality, capacity constraints and budget dependence

Heavy seasonality combined with dependence on government budgets and capacity shortfalls creates recurring timing and demand-capture risks. Capacity limits and appropriation delays can defer revenue and leave high-margin demand unmet across multiple quarters.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace makes money by providing contracted aerial firefighting and aviation services using its owned/operated aircraft and crews. Revenue is primarily generated through service contracts where customers (typically government wildfire agencies) pay for the availability of aircraft and/or for mission flight time during wildfire operations (e.g., when aircraft are dispatched for active fires). Additional revenue may come from related aviation support activities tied to wildfire response (such as positioning, standby, and other operational services associated with firefighting missions). Specific details on pricing structure (e.g., fixed availability fees vs. hourly/flight-time rates), customer concentration, contract durations, and named partnerships are null.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Turnaround signals are improving (2025 positive net income and solid gross/EBITDA margins; balance sheet de-levered to very low debt), but reliability is weakened by uneven revenue trajectory and highly volatile free cash flow, including sharply negative 2025 FCF.

Income Statement

Profitability has materially improved versus prior years: 2025 returned to positive net income ($4.1M) with healthy gross margin (~42%) and solid EBITDA margin (~12.5%). That said, revenue declined in 2025 (-5.4% YoY) after growth in 2024, and results have been volatile historically (large losses in 2022–2023 and a loss in 2024), which tempers confidence in consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet strengthened significantly in 2025, with very low debt ($0.9M) and a conservative debt level versus equity (debt-to-equity ~0.01), supporting financial flexibility. However, leverage was extremely high as recently as 2023–2024 (debt-to-equity ~8.0 and ~4.0), and equity/base profitability has swung sharply (negative returns on equity in 2021–2024), indicating prior balance-sheet risk and earnings instability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow improved to positive levels in 2024–2025 (about $9.4M and $16.7M), helping support day-to-day funding. The key weakness is free cash flow, which swung to deeply negative in 2025 (-$64.2M) after turning positive in 2024, implying heavy reinvestment/capex or working-capital usage and reducing near-term cash generation reliability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	122.83M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M
Gross Profit	51.68M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M
EBITDA	30.87M	24.84M	-43.35M	-13.01M	9.43M
Net Income	4.14M	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	330.31M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.38M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M
Total Debt	244.85M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.89M
Total Liabilities	265.64M	237.33M	246.54M	230.58M	133.25M
Stockholders Equity	64.67M	53.48M	26.93M	75.40M	61.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-64.21M	5.27M	-47.87M	-35.50M	-47.74M
Operating Cash Flow	16.73M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M
Investing Cash Flow	-34.44M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.32M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.32, below the 50-day MA of 2.55, and below the 200-day MA of 2.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.55B	27.53	27.45%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
SNT	67 Neutral	$71.38M	28.93	12.02%	―	―	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MG	61 Neutral	$463.82M	23.60	7.67%	―	-3.20%	60.03%
BAER	56 Neutral	$118.56M	23.99	7.38%	―	54.35%	70.17%
EVLV	52 Neutral	$952.35M	-36.39	-30.45%	―	41.61%	-1.76%
KSCP	41 Neutral	$49.68M	-1.48	-156.57%	―	5.50%	51.32%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Appoints New CFO Amid Leadership Transition

On March 10, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. confirmed that Chief Financial Officer Eric Gerratt would resign effective that day and work in a transitionary role until his retirement on April 3, 2026, supported by a retention and transition package including a $180,000 fee, 12 months of health insurance, and continued vesting of unvested RSUs. The company simultaneously appointed former deputy CFO and ex-audit committee chair Anne Hayes as CFO effective March 10, 2026, and, as previously disclosed on March 4, 2026, named Adolphus “Bill” Andrews chief operating officer effective March 2, 2026, with both executives receiving structured compensation and equity awards that signal a deliberate strengthening of Bridger Aerospace’s financial and operational leadership bench.

Hayes, a 44-year-old CPA with more than 20 years in private equity, venture capital, and forensic accounting, retains her $500,000 base salary and $150,000 bonus eligibility, bringing extensive assurance and compliance experience from roles at PricewaterhouseCoopers, Councilor, Buchanan & Mitchell, and several private-company CFO posts. Andrews will receive a $400,000 base salary, potential $160,000 annual bonus, up to $1 million in RSU awards with time-based vesting, and relocation support, reflecting the company’s use of incentive-driven packages to attract senior operations talent and maintain continuity amid the planned CFO transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.

Bridger Aerospace Expands Aerial Firefighting Fleet With Acquisition

On December 23, 2025, Bridger Aerospace, through its Spanish subsidiary Albacete Aero, completed the previously agreed $50 million acquisition of two Canadair CL-215T amphibious “Super Scooper” aircraft, engines and related assets from an affiliate of its MAB Funding joint venture, and formally announced the closing on December 30, 2025. The purchase, funded under a $210 million senior secured term loan facility, along with the addition of four air attack aircraft in the fourth quarter—two of which had already been leased and on contract in 2025—expands Bridger’s fleet to eight Super Scoopers, the largest privately operated scooper fleet worldwide, and 11 light fixed-wing air attack and surveillance aircraft, positioning the company for greater mission capacity and potential contract growth in the 2026 fire season and reinforcing its competitive standing in the aerial firefighting market.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.