Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.23B
• Dividend Yield: 5.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 716.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
• Beta (1Y): -0.05
• Revenue Growth: 2.14%
• EPS Growth: -6.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,920
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 82,251,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 897,844
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 716,149
• PEG Ratio: 3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.59
• P/FCF Ratio: -30.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.07
• 1Y Price Target: $38.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.14% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.96B

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(4.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated financial uncertainty from the provided 2025 financial-statement anomalies (revenue/profitability and balance-sheet inconsistencies). Valuation is a support via a strong dividend yield and reasonable P/E, while technicals are mixed with modestly weak near-term momentum. The latest earnings call is mildly supportive with clear guidance and capital plan, but near-term regulatory/customer headwinds and higher financing needs limit upside.

Positive Factors

Capital investment / rate-base growth

A multi‑year $3.4B capex plan with ~5% base capital CAGR underpins durable rate‑base expansion in a regulated utility model. Steady capital deployment that is largely recoverable through rate proceedings supports sustainable earnings growth and long‑term returns on invested utility assets.

Consistent operating cash flow

Sustained positive operating cash flow across recent years indicates high earnings quality for core utility operations. Reliable cash generation funds capital investment, services debt, and supports dividends, reducing dependence on volatile market financing over the medium term.

Longstanding dividend and payout policy

A 24‑year dividend increase streak and an explicit 60%–70% payout target signal disciplined capital allocation and alignment with income‑oriented shareholders. Persistent payout policy suggests management prioritizes cash returns and provides a predictable income profile for investors.

Negative Factors

2025 financial statement anomalies

Reported 2025 balance‑sheet deterioration (slightly negative equity and distorted debt/assets) raises durable concerns about data integrity, potential one‑offs or impairments, and covenant or financing implications. Until reconciled, forecasting cash‑flow coverage and credit metrics remains uncertain.

Higher near‑term financing needs

Materially higher 2026 debt and equity issuance increases reliance on external capital and can pressure credit metrics and cost of capital. Issuance needs—plus potential monetization of nonregulated assets—create execution and dilution risk that could complicate funding of the multi‑year capex program.

Regulatory/timing headwinds and ROE pressure

Regulatory timing (structural lag), Colstrip adjustments and energy‑recovery sharing compress near‑term earned ROE below long‑run targets. Persistent lag between investment and allowed returns can reduce capital efficiency, lower realized returns on new projects, and constrain long‑term profitability.

Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The AEL&P segment offers electric services to 17,400 customers in the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 23, 2022, it provided electric service to 406,000 customers and natural gas to 372,000 customers. In addition, the company engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Avista generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company charges customers based on a regulated rate structure approved by state utility commissions, which allows it to recover its operating costs and earn a return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales, natural gas sales, and various ancillary services. Additionally, Avista participates in energy efficiency programs and renewable energy projects, which can provide additional income through incentives and grants. The company may also benefit from partnerships with local governments and other entities focused on sustainability and clean energy initiatives, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Avista Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Core 2020–2024 utility profile appears steady (net margins ~9–10% and consistently positive operating cash flow), but the provided 2025 annual figures show major deterioration/inconsistencies (sharp revenue decline, deeply negative gross profit, and equity turning slightly negative). Until clarified or normalized, these red flags materially increase financial risk despite otherwise solid operating cash generation.

Income Statement

From 2020–2024, revenue generally grew (despite a 2020 dip) and profitability looked steady with net margins near ~9–10% and solid operating profitability. However, the latest 2025 annual data shows a sharp revenue decline (-31.56%) and reported gross profit turning deeply negative with no operating or net profit reported, which is a major deterioration versus the prior trend and raises data-quality/one-off risk concerns that weigh heavily on the score.

Balance Sheet

Through 2020–2024, the balance sheet looked typical for a utility with sizable leverage (debt roughly ~1.2x equity) and stable returns on equity around ~6–7%. The 2025 annual snapshot is a significant red flag: equity turns slightly negative and reported debt/assets collapse versus prior years, implying either an exceptional event or inconsistent reporting; either way, it signals materially higher balance-sheet risk based on the provided data.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and was strong in 2023–2024 (~$447M–$534M), supporting earnings quality. The key weakness is free cash flow, which is often negative in 2020–2023 and essentially breakeven in 2024, consistent with heavy reinvestment needs; the 2025 annual figure shows very high free cash flow but also an extreme negative growth rate, indicating volatility and limited visibility. Overall, cash generation is a relative strength, but free-cash-flow stability is not.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.96B	1.94B	1.75B	1.71B	1.44B
Gross Profit	475.00M	1.14B	1.05B	974.35M	941.81M
EBITDA	654.00M	602.00M	542.63M	446.42M	459.02M
Net Income	193.00M	180.00M	171.18M	155.18M	147.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.64B	7.94B	7.70B	7.42B	6.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.00M	30.00M	35.00M	13.43M	22.17M
Total Debt	3.38B	3.12B	3.03B	2.92B	2.60B
Total Liabilities	5.93B	5.35B	5.22B	5.08B	4.70B
Stockholders Equity	2.71B	2.59B	2.48B	2.33B	2.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-101.00M	1.00M	-51.56M	-327.79M	-172.60M
Operating Cash Flow	469.00M	534.00M	447.08M	124.21M	267.34M
Investing Cash Flow	-564.00M	-539.00M	-510.00M	-460.00M	-444.92M
Financing Cash Flow	84.00M	0.00	85.00M	327.00M	185.55M

Avista Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.92, below the 50-day MA of 40.11, and above the 200-day MA of 37.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVA.

Avista Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OTTR	72 Outperform	$3.62B	16.34	16.10%	2.54%	-3.18%	-8.62%
MGEE	66 Neutral	$2.81B	21.08	10.59%	2.36%	8.26%	12.47%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
BKH	64 Neutral	$5.38B	17.38	7.85%	3.91%	7.03%	6.64%
NWE	64 Neutral	$4.17B	22.16	―	4.09%	4.90%	-4.42%
AVA	54 Neutral	$3.23B	16.17	7.25%	5.10%	2.14%	-6.51%

Avista Corporate Events

Avista Outlines 2026 Earnings Outlook and Capital Plan

On February 27, 2026, Avista Corp. released a March 2026 investor presentation outlining its financial performance, regulatory developments and capital plans, including 2025 operating revenue of $1.9 billion, net income of $191 million and diluted EPS of $2.36. The utility is targeting long-term annual utility earnings growth of 4–6% from the midpoint of 2025 consolidated guidance, an expected long-term ROE of 9.0% and non-GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for 2026, underpinned by a strengthened S&P outlook to stable.

Avista detailed a planned $3.4 billion capital program for 2026–2030 to support wildfire mitigation, grid modernization and its aspirational goals of 100% clean electricity and carbon-neutral gas operations by 2045, alongside a 5% base capital CAGR and potential additional spending for large new loads such as data centers. Regulatory milestones include new electric and gas rates effective in Washington, Idaho and Oregon during 2025–2026 and a 2026 Washington general rate case with a four-year rate plan, reflecting supportive commissions and mechanisms for cost deferrals tied to wildfire resiliency and employee benefits.

The company also highlighted a signed memorandum of understanding for a potential 10% ownership stake in the 3,000-megawatt North Plains Connector high-voltage direct-current transmission project, with definitive agreements expected within 6–9 months and financial commitments anticipated near the project’s 2032 conclusion. Avista’s wildfire mitigation strategy, including grid hardening, advanced fire weather analytics and public safety power shutoffs, combined with recent Washington and Idaho legislation, is intended to enhance system resilience while managing risk and securing regulatory and potential federal support for these investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Avista Posts Higher 2025 Earnings and Sets 2026 Outlook

Avista Corp. reported on Feb. 25, 2026, that its 2025 GAAP net income rose to $193 million, or $2.38 per diluted share, from $180 million, or $2.29 per share, in 2024, while non-GAAP utility earnings climbed to $207 million, or $2.55 per share, from $187 million, or $2.38 per share, driven by general rate cases, customer and load growth, and cost discipline despite a negative Washington order on its Colstrip exit. The company also initiated 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 per share, factoring in a $0.12 per-share hit from the early market exit of a large industrial power customer, and highlighted higher non-regulated investment losses tied mainly to clean technology valuations, an increased effective tax rate, updated environmental remediation costs and active balance sheet management through debt issuance, equity issuance and maintained liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Sell with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Avista Proposes Multi-Year Rate Plan to Washington Regulators

On January 16, 2026, Avista filed a four-year multi-year rate plan with Washington regulators seeking phased increases in electric and natural gas base rates starting in 2027, aimed at generating additional annual base revenues that rise from $111 million for electric and $12 million for gas in 2027 to smaller but continued increases through 2030. The company cited higher electric resource costs, capital additions, employee benefits, insurance, regulatory amortizations and wildfire-related costs as key drivers for the 2027 revenue requirement, and is also asking to adjust its authorized rate of return and return on equity over the plan period, modify how baseline power supply costs are calculated and recovered to better handle market volatility, and expand or add cost deferral mechanisms, including for employee benefits, as it seeks to manage inflation, interest rate swings, labor and benefits pressures, and rising capital costs over a longer-term regulatory horizon; the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission now has up to eleven months to review the filing and issue a decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Sell with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.