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Avista Corp (AVA)
NYSE:AVA
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Avista
(NYSE:AVA)56Neutral
Positive Factors
Generation Mix
The generation mix includes 50% low-cost hydro and 10% renewables, creating a favorable backdrop.
Rate Relief and ROE Improvement
ROE improvement and rate relief are key drivers for growth, providing a positive outlook for Avista's earnings.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Challenges
AVA’s less constructive regulatory environments, power supply cost volatility, weaker balance sheet, and O&M management, will remain challenges to execution.
Avista (AVA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.18B
Dividend Yield4.82%
Average Volume (3M)586.16K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth10.64%
EPS Growth2.28%
CountryUS
Employees4,100
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength79
IndustryRegulated Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.28
Shares Outstanding80,126,260
10 Day Avg. Volume914,002
30 Day Avg. Volume586,164
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio7.63
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)8.90
P/FCF Ratio8.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.00Price Target Upside-4.28% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAvista Corporation (AVA) is a diversified energy company primarily involved in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. Headquartered in Spokane, Washington, Avista serves customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of southern and eastern Oregon. The company is committed to delivering reliable energy solutions and is actively engaged in sustainable practices to enhance its operational efficiency and environmental responsibility.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvista makes money through the sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is primarily based on regulated utility operations, which include the generation of electricity from hydroelectric, natural gas, coal, and other renewable sources, as well as the transmission and distribution of this energy to end-users. Avista's earnings are influenced by regulatory decisions regarding rates, energy consumption patterns, and infrastructure investments. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships and initiatives aimed at expanding renewable energy sources and improving grid reliability, which can also contribute to its revenue streams.
Avista Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Avista faces significant financial challenges, with a negative gross profit and zero equity in 2024 indicating financial stress. High leverage and negative free cash flows are notable risks, despite stable operating cash flows. The company must address operational inefficiencies and manage debt levels to improve financial health.Income Statement
Avista's revenue has shown a fluctuating pattern with a noticeable decline in 2024. The gross profit margin is negative for 2024, indicating significant cost issues or impairments. Previous years showed moderate growth, but the recent downturn suggests potential operational challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio due to zero equity in 2024, indicating financial stress. Historical data shows a gradual increase in total debt, while equity has not grown proportionately, suggesting rising leverage risk.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow metrics indicate volatility, with free cash flow consistently negative, reflecting high capital expenditures. Operating cash flow has been positive historically, but the overall ability to generate free cash flow is constrained.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.44B | 1.32B | Gross Profit |
| 1.14B | 1.05B | 974.35M | 941.81M | 923.38M | EBIT |
| 306.00M | 257.69M | 190.24M | 228.23M | 232.70M | EBITDA |
| 602.00M | 542.63M | 446.42M | 459.02M | 450.49M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 180.00M | 171.18M | 155.18M | 147.33M | 129.49M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 30.00M | 35.00M | 13.43M | 22.17M | 14.20M | Total Assets |
| 7.94B | 7.70B | 7.42B | 6.85B | 6.40B | Total Debt |
| 39.00M | 3.03B | 2.92B | 2.60B | 2.39B | Net Debt |
| 39.00M | 3.00B | 2.91B | 2.58B | 2.37B | Total Liabilities |
| 5.35B | 5.22B | 5.08B | 4.70B | 4.37B | Stockholders Equity |
| 2.59B | 2.49B | 2.33B | 2.15B | 2.03B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.00M | -51.56M | -327.79M | -172.60M | -73.30M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 534.00M | 447.08M | 124.21M | 267.34M | 331.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -539.00M | -510.39M | -460.24M | -444.92M | -410.74M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | 84.89M | 327.29M | 185.55M | 84.04M |
Avista Technical Analysis
Positive
39.70
Price Trends
36.78
Positive
36.83
Positive
36.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.92
Negative
67.82
Neutral
66.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.02, above the 50-day MA of 36.78, and above the 200-day MA of 36.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.
Avista Risk Analysis
Avista disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the “Macro & Political” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avista Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $3.04B | 22.59 | 6.62% | 0.47% | -26.53% | 13.67% | |
77 Outperform | $4.88B | 14.83 | 8.80% | 4.43% | 15.67% | 29.07% | |
74 Outperform | $6.11B | 20.60 | 9.27% | 2.99% | 3.48% | 6.67% | |
73 Outperform | $3.78B | 21.04 | 6.34% | 4.36% | -18.62% | -27.88% | |
70 Neutral | $10.96B | 17.56 | 9.42% | 3.86% | 9.13% | 21.11% | |
65 Neutral | $12.05B | 15.92 | 6.71% | 4.32% | 8.04% | 3.76% | |
56 Neutral | $3.18B | 17.38 | 7.09% | 4.82% | 10.64% | 2.28% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AVA
Avista
39.70
6.84
20.82%
ALE
Allete
65.27
9.45
16.93%
IDA
IdaCorp
113.19
24.95
28.28%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
91.99
22.73
32.82%
POR
Portland GE
44.55
4.32
10.74%
EE
Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A
28.74
12.89
81.32%
Avista Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: 4.04% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with significant investment in infrastructure, favorable regulatory outcomes, and a positive earnings guidance for 2025. However, declines in Q4 earnings, challenges with the energy recovery mechanism, and losses in other business areas were notable concerns.Highlights
Record Capital Investment
Avista Utilities invested a record $510 million in 2024 to better serve customers, signaling a strong commitment to infrastructure improvement.
Constructive Regulatory Outcomes
The Washington general rate cases concluded with a balanced positive outcome, increasing the return on equity to 9.8% and supporting deferral mechanisms for wildfire and insurance costs.
Wildfire Mitigation Success
Met or exceeded 2024 targets for distribution grid hardening, transmission hardening, vegetation management, and enhanced fire safety mode automation with AI-enabled cameras.
Dividend Increase
For the twenty-third consecutive year, the dividend was increased by over 3% to $1.96 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
Positive Earnings Guidance
Initiated 2025 earnings guidance at $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, reflecting a strong outlook for the coming year.
Lowlights
Decline in Q4 Earnings
Fourth quarter earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.84 from $1.08 in the same period in 2023.
Energy Recovery Mechanism Challenges
Denial of proposed modifications by the Washington Commission resulted in an expected $0.12 expense from the energy recovery mechanism in 2025.
Losses in Other Businesses
Recognized a $0.09 loss per diluted share in 2024 due to periodic market valuations and losses from early-stage joint venture investments.
Increased O&M Expenses
Projected a 15% increase in O&M expenses for 2025, partly due to amortizations and increased base costs such as labor and benefits.
Company Guidance
In the Avista Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance for 2025. The earnings guidance is set at a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share, with the midpoint including a $0.12 expense from the energy recovery mechanism and a zero contribution from other businesses. Avista Utilities is expected to contribute between $2.43 and $2.61 per diluted share, while AEL&P is projected to contribute $0.09 to $0.11 per diluted share. The company anticipates capital expenditures of $525 million in 2025, excluding potential investments from an RFP process or new large load customers. Over the next five years, Avista expects capital expenditures to reach nearly $3 billion, with an annual growth rate of 5% to 6%. The company also highlighted its efforts in regulatory strategy, wildfire mitigation, and infrastructure investment as critical components of its success. Additionally, the company plans to issue up to $120 million of long-term debt and $80 million in common stock in 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.