Xref Ltd (XF1) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$30.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 80.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 7.32%
• EPS Growth: 67.11%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 99
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 220,089,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 60,218
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 80,687
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): -6.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.13 ▼(-18.75% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial stability (negative equity/high leverage) and lack of profitability, with only partial support from improving operating/free cash flow. Technicals add modest downside pressure as the price trades below key moving averages with a negative MACD, while valuation is difficult to assess favorably due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Recurring subscription revenue

A subscription pricing model creates predictable, recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value. Over the next 2-6 months this supports steady top-line visibility, easier budgeting, and potential for upsells/expansion with recruitment agencies and HR tech partners, improving revenue durability.

Positive operating and free cash flow trends

Improving operating and free cash flow signal better cash discipline despite accounting losses. Sustained positive cash generation reduces short-term refinancing risk, funds continued product development and sales investment, and lengthens runway without immediate equity raises.

High gross profit margin

A strong gross margin implies efficient cost structure at the product level and scalable unit economics typical of SaaS. This provides structural leverage: as revenue grows, incremental margins can flow to EBITDA if operating expenses are managed, aiding long-term path to profitability.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity and high leverage

Negative equity and elevated leverage represent persistent solvency and covenant risk, constraining capital flexibility. Over months this limits ability to access cheap debt, may force dilutive equity raises, and weakens resilience to revenue shocks or longer sales cycles.

Ongoing net losses and negative margins

Sustained negative EBIT/EBITDA and net losses indicate the business has not yet converted revenue growth into operating profitability. Over a multi-month horizon this pressures cash reserves and requires sustained margin improvement or additional funding to support growth investments.

Limited cash generation vs reported losses

A low operating cash flow to net income ratio signals weaker earnings quality and that reported losses are not fully offset by operating cash. This complicates long-term investment planning and debt servicing, leaving the company dependent on improving core cash conversion or external financing.

Xref Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Xref Limited engages in the development of human resources technology that automates the candidate reference process for employers in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the United States. It operates in two segments, Candidate Referencing and ID Verification. The company offers Xref, an automated reference checking tool for reference check templates, talent sourcing, background checking and identity verification, analytics and insights, and security and compliance solutions. It serves not-for-profit, health and aged care, hospitality, construction, and retail industries, as well as government and public sectors. The company is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Xref generates revenue through a subscription-based model, where clients pay for access to its reference checking platform. The company offers various pricing tiers based on the volume of references processed and additional features utilized by its clients. Key revenue streams include direct sales to businesses seeking to improve their recruitment processes, as well as partnerships with recruitment agencies and HR service providers that integrate Xref's technology into their offerings. Furthermore, Xref may also benefit from strategic alliances with other HR technology firms, enhancing its service portfolio and expanding its customer base.

Xref Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial health is pressured by ongoing losses (negative net profit, EBIT and EBITDA margins) and significant balance-sheet risk (negative stockholders’ equity and high leverage). Offsetting this, operating cash flow is positive and free cash flow growth is strong, indicating improving cash discipline despite profitability challenges.

Income Statement

Xref Ltd shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has achieved a high gross profit margin, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth is modest, but the negative EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial instability, with negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates potential solvency issues. Return on equity is positive but misleading due to negative equity, suggesting caution in interpreting profitability metrics.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows improvement, with positive operating cash flow and significant free cash flow growth. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating limited cash generation relative to reported losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash management despite net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.31M	21.31M	19.86M	20.40M	18.59M	14.45M
Gross Profit	19.03M	19.03M	17.33M	17.15M	14.92M	3.02M
EBITDA	-1.87M	-1.87M	-1.76M	-1.36M	1.57M	-272.89K
Net Income	-1.95M	-1.95M	-5.68M	-3.36M	729.58K	78.08K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.16M	19.16M	20.36M	22.90M	20.17M	15.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.29M	5.29M	4.59M	6.84M	11.67M	8.13M
Total Debt	7.83M	7.83M	8.35M	5.33M	4.96M	4.69M
Total Liabilities	23.55M	23.55M	26.21M	23.10M	18.70M	16.01M
Stockholders Equity	-4.39M	-4.39M	-5.85M	-202.52K	1.47M	-1.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.35M	1.35M	-3.80M	-2.17M	-833.27K	1.19M
Operating Cash Flow	1.36M	1.36M	-678.80K	454.40K	627.48K	2.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.91M	-1.91M	-3.12M	-4.34M	-1.46M	-1.13M
Financing Cash Flow	1.92M	1.24M	1.56M	-952.81K	380.71K	4.07M

Xref Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:XF1, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, above the 50-day MA of 0.15, and above the 200-day MA of 0.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:XF1.

Xref Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
AMX	48 Neutral	AU$22.80M	-3.76	-31.01%	―	-3.43%	-40.65%
8CO	45 Neutral	AU$7.84M	-25.00	-9999.00%	―	-10.32%	69.30%
XF1	43 Neutral	AU$30.81M	-13.50	―	―	7.32%	67.11%
PRO	41 Neutral	AU$8.48M	-1.31	-133.07%	―	-4.90%	-52.78%
FLX	41 Neutral	AU$44.03M	-6.25	―	―	21.82%	6.83%
DUB	40 Underperform	AU$48.63M	-1.07	-212.09%	―	9.14%	65.30%

Xref Ltd Corporate Events

Xref Issues 4.5 Million Unquoted Options Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Xref Limited has notified the market of the issue of 4.5 million unquoted options under an employee incentive scheme. The options, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, have an exercise price of $0.20 and expire on 21 November 2028, reflecting the company’s continued use of equity-based incentives to align staff interests with long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:XF1) stock is a Hold with a A$0.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xref Ltd stock, see the AU:XF1 Stock Forecast page.

Xref Limited AGM Results: Key Resolutions Passed, 10% Placement Facility Rejected

Xref Limited announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions were passed except for the special resolution to approve a 10% placement facility, which did not achieve the required 75% approval. The meeting included the re-election and election of directors, approval of the remuneration report, ratification of previous share placements, and approval of the incentive plan. The rejection of the 10% placement facility could impact the company’s ability to raise additional capital, potentially influencing its future growth strategies.

Xref Limited Reports Successful Transition to Subscription Model and Positive Financial Growth

Xref Limited has successfully transitioned to a subscription-based business model, resulting in a 7% revenue increase to $21.3 million and a positive EBITDA of $2.5 million for the 2024-25 financial year. Despite a rejected acquisition offer from Seek Limited, Xref secured a $3.6 million placement from a strategic partner and strengthened its board with new directors. The company has streamlined its operations, introduced a single technology platform, and implemented self-sign-on and auto-renewal features to boost annual recurring revenue.