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True North Copper Limited (AU:TNC)
ASX:TNC
Australian Market

True North Copper (TNC) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TNC

True North Copper

(Sydney:TNC)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.47
▼(-6.40% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/17/26
The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses, negative margins, and ongoing cash burn) despite improved balance-sheet leverage with debt reduced to zero. Technical indicators add modest pressure due to negative momentum signals, and valuation is constrained by loss-making earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet deleveraging
Elimination of debt materially lowers financial risk and interest burden, giving management flexibility to fund operations or development from equity or cash reserves. A debt-free balance sheet is a durable structural advantage during capital-intensive mine development cycles.
Improving cash flow trend
An improving free-cash-flow trajectory, even from a negative base, signals operational progress or cost control that can be sustained. If continued, this trend reduces reliance on external funding and supports transition toward self-funded operations over the medium term.
Focused copper asset base
A clear, concentrated asset base in copper and owned processing capability gives strategic optionality to scale production, capture processing margins and pursue offtakes. Copper exposure aligns the business with long-term structural demand for industrial and electrification metals.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
Sustained negative margins indicate the company is not currently converting production or sales into profitable operations. Persistent losses erode equity, limit reinvestment, and make it harder to attract non-dilutive capital, challenging long-term operational sustainability.
Revenue collapse and instability
A dramatic drop in revenue underscores an unstable sales base and weak commercial execution. Low and volatile top-line makes fixed-cost absorption difficult, delays scale economies for mining/processing assets, and lengthens the path to consistent cash generation.
Material cash burn
Large negative operating and free cash flows require recurring external funding or asset sales to sustain operations. Ongoing cash burn constrains capital allocation for development, increases financing risk, and can force dilutive equity raises or distressed asset disposals.

True North Copper (TNC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

True North Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrue North Copper Limited engages in mineral exploration and development activities in Australia. The company primarily explores for copper, cobalt, gold, and silver deposits. It holds 100% interests in the Cloncurry project located near Cloncurry, Northwest Queensland; and Mount Oxide project located in North-West Queensland, as well as the Bundarra project located in Central Queensland. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Cloncurry, Australia.
How the Company Makes Money

True North Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financial quality is weak: revenue is small and unstable, gross profit turned sharply negative, and losses remain large. Cash flow is materially negative with ongoing free-cash-flow burn, although leverage improved meaningfully with total debt reduced to zero.
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Profitability is very weak. The latest annual period shows revenue collapsing to ~$0.7M from ~$2.4M, with gross profit turning sharply negative and losses remaining large (net margin deeply negative). While revenue grew in 2024 versus 2023, the business has not demonstrated a stable, scalable revenue base and operating losses remain persistent.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Balance sheet strength is mixed but improved. Total debt falls to zero in the latest annual period (down from ~$25.8M), reducing financial risk, and equity remains sizable (~$74.1M). However, returns on equity are meaningfully negative across periods, indicating capital is not currently earning an acceptable return and the asset base is not translating into profits.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is weak. The latest annual period shows materially negative operating cash flow (~-$19.4M) and negative free cash flow (~-$19.5M), implying ongoing cash burn. Free cash flow improved versus the prior year, but the company remains reliant on external funding or balance-sheet resources until operations turn sustainably cash-positive.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue665.00K665.00K2.39M1.50M
Gross Profit-12.49M-14.11M497.59K1.18M
EBITDA-13.17M-17.85M-21.53M-33.80M
Net Income-25.06M-28.42M-25.06M-34.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets101.09M98.69M111.69M75.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments19.12M12.81M15.48M3.49M
Total Debt0.000.0025.79M406.21K
Total Liabilities24.41M24.61M66.24M45.74M
Stockholders Equity76.68M74.08M45.45M29.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-15.61M-19.55M-34.82M-45.14M
Operating Cash Flow-15.50M-19.43M0.000.00
Investing Cash Flow-2.97M-5.35M-28.37M-38.16M
Financing Cash Flow22.11M22.11M64.22M46.90M

True North Copper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
53
Neutral
AU$59.43M-8.10-27.44%
47
Neutral
AU$173.19M-4.18-135.79%
43
Neutral
AU$75.43M-0.20-47.55%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TNC
True North Copper
0.50
0.10
26.92%
GB:NFM
Castillo Copper Ltd.
1.00
0.13
14.29%
AU:JLL
Jindalee Resources Limited
0.58
0.38
182.93%
AU:WTM
Battery Minerals Ltd.
0.56
0.39
229.41%
AU:G11
Odin Metals Ltd
0.32
0.15
88.24%

True North Copper Corporate Events

True North Copper lifts Cloncurry resource base and advances pre-feasibility work
Feb 9, 2026

True North Copper has reported an updated JORC 2012 mineral resource estimate for its Cloncurry Copper Project in northwest Queensland, driven by advanced grade control drilling, recent exploration and refined geological modelling. The overall project resource has increased by about 7% to roughly 109,000 tonnes of contained copper and 9% to 84,000 ounces of contained gold, with a notable 13.5% tonnage rise at the Great Australia deposit and higher confidence in the largely indicated Taipan resource.

The upgraded resource base provides a stronger technical foundation for ongoing pre-feasibility study work in 2026, including assessment of development options and underground potential. Management highlights a clear pathway for further growth, with additional drilling planned to test extensions of existing deposits, evaluate near-mine and regional targets, and gather more metallurgical and geotechnical data, which could enhance the project’s economic case and future production profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Director Adds Shares in Placement
Feb 4, 2026

Director Paul Cronin increased his holding by 2 million shares, split between his own account and Admiralty Resources Fund, via participation in a shareholder-approved placement priced at A$0.50 per share, lifting his stake to 4.19 million shares and demonstrating insider support for the company’s capital-raising strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.57 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Seeks Quotation for 7.6 Million New Shares
Feb 4, 2026

The Australian-listed miner True North Copper operates in the copper mining sector, focusing on exploration and development assets to supply the resources market. The company has lodged an Appendix 2A application to quote 7.6 million new fully paid ordinary shares on the ASX, expanding its listed capital base and signalling continued execution of previously flagged financing initiatives that could support project funding and investor liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.57 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Cancels 92,000 High-Exercise-Price Options
Feb 4, 2026

True North Copper Limited has notified the market that a tranche of its listed options has been cancelled by agreement with the holder, resulting in a small adjustment to its issued capital structure. The company reported that 92,000 TNCAJ options, which were due to expire in June 2028 with an exercise price of $30.00, ceased to exist effective 31 January 2026, a move that marginally simplifies its capital base and may slightly reduce potential future dilution for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.59 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Shareholders Back All Resolutions at Extraordinary Meeting
Jan 30, 2026

True North Copper Limited has reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 30 January 2026 Extraordinary General Meeting were passed by poll, with strong levels of support recorded across the register. The approvals cover Tembo’s participation in a share placement, director Paul Cronin’s participation in the same capital raising, and the ratification of both tranche one and tranche two placement share issues, collectively endorsing the company’s recent equity funding activities and reinforcing shareholder backing for its current capital and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.62 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Lifts Wallace North Resource in Cloncurry Update
Jan 28, 2026

True North Copper has updated the Mineral Resource Estimate for its Wallace North copper-gold deposit within the Cloncurry Copper Project in Northwest Queensland, incorporating additional 2025 drilling and depletion from minor 2024 mining. The revised estimate shows net resource growth despite depletion, with tonnage up about 12%, contained copper up 9% and contained gold up 11%, while grades and geometry remain consistent, providing a more robust technical baseline for the ongoing Pre-Feasibility Study, future development planning and targeted drilling to test underground and resource extension potential, alongside an expected resource update for the nearby Great Australia Mine in early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Confirms Scale of Mt Oxide Aquila Discovery, Sets Up Fully Funded 2026 Drilling Push
Jan 19, 2026

True North Copper has reported Phase 2 drilling results from its Mt Oxide Project in northwest Queensland, confirming the geometry, scale and continuity of copper-silver-cobalt mineralisation at the Aquila discovery and validating Acanthis as a parallel mineralised trend. Drilling at Aquila has defined thick, near-vertical mineralisation with true widths of roughly 45–60 metres over a central 250-metre zone and more than 1,000 metres of strike, while first-pass drilling at Acanthis intersected copper mineralisation coincident with geophysical anomalies, supporting the regional geophysical model and the district’s broader potential. These results strengthen the technical foundation for True North Copper’s fully funded 2026 exploration campaign, which will include extended IP surveys, diamond and reverse circulation drilling to expand Aquila at depth and along strike, refine geological models and systematically test parallel trends such as Acanthis and Apollo, with the aim of advancing Mt Oxide into a multi-target, district-scale copper district and guiding capital allocation within the company’s staged growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Director Sees Lapse of 5 Million Options
Jan 5, 2026

True North Copper Limited has disclosed a change in director Paul Cronin’s interests in the company’s securities. The filing with the ASX shows that 5,000,000 options previously held by Cronin, exercisable at A$0.60 and due to expire on 31 December 2025, have lapsed, leaving him with 3,194,564 fully paid ordinary shares and no remaining options. The change modestly alters the director’s exposure to future equity upside without affecting his existing shareholding, and signals the expiry of a significant block of options previously on issue to a key board member.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Options Lapse, Simplifying Capital Structure
Jan 4, 2026

True North Copper Limited, an ASX-listed copper exploration and development company, has adjusted its capital structure following the expiry of a tranche of listed options. The company announced that 5 million TNCAO options, each exercisable at A$0.60 and due to expire on 31 December 2025, have lapsed unexercised, resulting in the cessation of these securities. The expiry reduces the pool of potential future share dilution tied to these instruments, modestly simplifying the company’s capital base and clarifying the current equity position for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TNC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.52 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on True North Copper stock, see the AU:TNC Stock Forecast page.

True North Copper Issues 850,000 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Dec 22, 2025

True North Copper Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 850,000 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 19 December 2025. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, form part of the company’s approach to staff and executive remuneration, aligning employee incentives with long-term shareholder value and reflecting standard capital management practices in the Australian resources sector.

True North Copper Sets Fully Virtual Extraordinary General Meeting for 30 January 2026
Dec 21, 2025

True North Copper has called an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) for its shareholders to be held virtually on 30 January 2026 at 10:00am Brisbane time via the Automic online platform. The meeting notice outlines that only registered shareholders as at 7:00pm AEST on 28 January 2026 will be eligible to vote, and it sets out the procedural details for accessing the virtual platform, creating or using an Automic account, lodging proxy votes and participating in real-time voting and Q&A, underscoring the company’s push to facilitate broad shareholder participation in governance despite the fully online format.

True North Copper Confirms High-Grade Mineralization at Aquila Project
Dec 16, 2025

True North Copper Limited has announced successful assay results from its Aquila project in the Mount Oxide district, confirming high-grade copper mineralization along a 250-meter depth and 60-meter width. The results highlight the potential for further exploration and discoveries in the area, with the mineralization remaining open along strike and at depth. The company plans to continue its exploration efforts with a 2026 drilling program aimed at extending the Aquila footprint and testing additional high-priority targets. This development positions Mount Oxide as an emerging copper district, potentially comparable to other major deposits in the region, and aligns with True North’s strategic growth objectives.

True North Copper Announces Proposed Securities Issuance
Dec 8, 2025

True North Copper Limited has announced a proposed issuance of 25 million ordinary fully paid securities, scheduled for January 30, 2026. This move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its financial standing and support its operations, potentially impacting its market position and offering opportunities for stakeholders.

True North Copper Secures $12.5 Million for Expansion of Mt Oxide Project
Dec 8, 2025

True North Copper Limited has successfully raised A$12.5 million through a heavily oversubscribed placement to accelerate its drilling and growth activities at the Mt Oxide Project and the new Aquila discovery. The funding will support the company’s strategic pillars of growth, development, and discovery, positioning True North Copper to expand its high-quality copper portfolio and create long-term shareholder value. Key initiatives include targeted drilling at the Cloncurry Copper Project and systematic exploration at Mt Oxide, with significant developments expected in 2026.

True North Copper Initiates Trading Halt for Capital Raising Announcement
Dec 3, 2025

True North Copper Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending an announcement regarding capital raising plans. The halt will remain in effect until the announcement is made or normal trading resumes on December 8, 2025, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and market position.

True North Copper Advances Cloncurry Project with New Pre-Feasibility Study
Dec 3, 2025

True North Copper Limited has commenced a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Cloncurry Copper Project, following successful 2025 drilling results that revealed high-grade copper-gold intersections at Wallace North and the Great Australia Mine. The PFS aims to build on a low-capital development pathway, utilizing existing infrastructure and toll-treatment agreements to enhance project economics and operational efficiency. The study will focus on optimizing processing configurations and updating economic models to support a potential Final Investment Decision by late 2026 or 2027, with ongoing stakeholder engagement and regulatory progress.

True North Copper Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 28, 2025

True North Copper Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Andrew Mooney’s indirect interest through the Mooney Family Trust. The change involved the acquisition of 1,000,000 performance rights approved by shareholders at the recent AGM, with these rights set to expire on November 27, 2030. This move reflects the company’s ongoing strategic adjustments to align with its operational goals and shareholder interests.

True North Copper Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 28, 2025

True North Copper Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Paul Frederiks. The change involves the acquisition of 500,000 performance rights by the Frederiks Family Superannuation Fund, replacing previously held options that lapsed by agreement. This shift, approved at the recent AGM, reflects strategic adjustments in the company’s governance and potentially impacts its market positioning by aligning director interests with long-term company performance.

True North Copper Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions
Nov 27, 2025

True North Copper Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting on November 27, 2025, were passed through a poll. The resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, election and re-election of directors, approval of a 7.1A mandate, and the issuance of securities and performance rights under an incentive plan. These approvals indicate strong shareholder support and are likely to impact the company’s governance and operational strategies positively.

True North Copper Expands Aquila Discovery, Enhancing Mt Oxide Project’s Potential
Nov 24, 2025

True North Copper Limited has announced significant progress at its Aquila Discovery, part of the Mt Oxide Project, with the strike length now exceeding 900 meters. The recent drilling results have identified multiple high-grade copper shoots, enhancing the project’s potential to rival the existing Vero deposit. This expansion positions the Mt Oxide Project as a burgeoning multi-deposit copper district. The company plans further exploration in 2026, targeting extensions and additional high-priority zones to expand its resource base.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 17, 2026