tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Southern Palladium Ltd. (AU:SPD)
ASX:SPD
Australian Market

Southern Palladium Ltd. (SPD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
9 Followers

Top Page

AU:SPD

Southern Palladium Ltd.

(Sydney:SPD)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▼(-23.08% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, recurring losses, and ongoing cash burn), partially offset by a clean, debt-free balance sheet. Technicals are a key positive with a strong uptrend and supportive momentum. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Zero debt on balance sheet
A zero-debt capital structure materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk for an exploration company. This conservatism preserves optionality to fund project studies or partnerships without fixed interest burdens, improving financial flexibility over the medium term.
Flagship PGM asset in Bushveld
Holding a flagship platinum-group metals project in the Bushveld—a globally significant PGM province—gives structural resource optionality. If exploration and studies prove economic, the asset location supports long-term development potential and strategic partner interest.
Sizable equity and asset base
A meaningful equity base and assets roughly matching equity provide a capital buffer to underwrite near-term exploration, resource definition and technical studies. This limits immediate insolvency risk and supports executing work programs before further financing is required.
Negative Factors
Consistent negative cash generation
Persistently negative operating and free cash flow indicates the business cannot self-fund activities and will depend on external capital. Over months, this raises execution risk, increases probability of dilutive funding rounds, and constrains sustained investment in the project.
No revenue (exploration stage)
With no recurring operating revenue, the company lacks an internal cash generation engine. Long-term value creation therefore hinges on resource conversion and successful project development, making the business outcome binary and subject to exploration and permitting execution risk.
Negative returns on equity; dilution risk
Sustained negative ROE shows the company is eroding shareholder capital rather than creating value. Continued operating losses increase the likelihood of future equity raises, which would dilute existing holders and signal difficulty in translating the asset base into profitable operations.

Southern Palladium Ltd. (SPD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Southern Palladium Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSouthern Palladium Limited engages in the exploration and development of platinum group metals. It holds a 100% interest in the Bengwenyama Palladium/rhodium project located on the Eastern Limb of the Bushveld, South Africa. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneySouthern Palladium Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the exploration and potential extraction of palladium resources. The company invests in the identification and development of palladium-rich mining sites, aiming to bring these sites into production. Once operational, revenue is earned through the sale of extracted palladium on the global commodities market. Key revenue streams include the sale of palladium to industrial manufacturers and other buyers who utilize the metal for its catalytic and electronic properties. Additionally, Southern Palladium Ltd. may engage in partnerships or joint ventures with other mining companies to share the costs and profits associated with exploration and extraction activities.

Southern Palladium Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement and cash flow are weak: no revenue reported (2021–2025), persistent net losses, and ongoing negative operating/free cash flow indicating continued cash burn and reliance on external funding. The balance sheet is a partial offset with zero debt and sizable equity, but negative ROE signals dilution risk if losses continue.
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
The company reports no revenue across the available annual periods (2021–2025), consistent with a pre-production/exploration profile. Losses are persistent and volatile: net income swung from a smaller loss in 2021 (-0.3M) to larger deficits in 2022–2025 (roughly -2.5M to -7.2M), with 2025 still meaningfully negative (-4.8M). With no revenue base, margins are not informative and profitability is entirely dependent on cost discipline and future project monetization.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet is conservatively financed with zero debt reported in every year, which reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains sizable (about 29.0M in 2025 vs. 25.0M in 2024), and assets are broadly in line with equity (assets ~29.7M in 2025), indicating limited leverage. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (approximately -16% in 2025 and worse in 2024), implying continued value dilution risk if losses persist and additional equity funding is required.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is negative, with operating cash flow and free cash flow below zero in every year provided, including a larger cash outflow in 2025 (-1.16M) versus minimal outflows shown in prior years. Free cash flow also does not cover profitability shortfalls because net income remains deeply negative, reinforcing reliance on external funding. While the reported free cash flow growth appears to swing sharply year-to-year, the core takeaway is consistent cash burn without an operating cash engine.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit0.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBITDA-4.05M-4.05M0.00-6.45M0.00-258.34K
Net Income-4.78M-4.78M-6.73M-7.18M-2.50M-258.34K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.73M29.73M25.11M31.29M40.69M1.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.92M9.92M5.43M11.55M17.87M1.36M
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities698.75K698.75K137.81K99.29K410.33K87.24K
Stockholders Equity29.04M29.04M24.97M31.19M40.28M1.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.16M-1.16M-894.00-1.06K-1.36K-343.00
Operating Cash Flow-1.16M-1.16M-894.00-1.06K-1.36K-343.00
Investing Cash Flow-2.35M-2.35M-5.22M-5.26M-889.000.00
Financing Cash Flow8.00M8.00M0.000.0017.86M1.56M

Southern Palladium Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.60
Price Trends
50DMA
1.85
Positive
100DMA
1.43
Positive
200DMA
0.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
49.51
Neutral
STOCH
18.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SPD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.30, above the 50-day MA of 1.85, and above the 200-day MA of 0.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SPD.

Southern Palladium Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
54
Neutral
AU$241.62M-40.76-17.70%29.91%
54
Neutral
AU$26.41M0.30239.14%270.27%
50
Neutral
AU$246.91M-8.50-174.83%-100.00%24.82%
49
Neutral
AU$42.87M-6.82-29.96%-214.29%
47
Neutral
AU$64.23M-8.58-17.91%-213.85%
46
Neutral
AU$134.34M-42.20-31.71%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:SPD
Southern Palladium Ltd.
2.14
1.62
311.54%
AU:IDA
Indiana Resources Limited
0.05
0.02
50.00%
AU:RIM
Rimfire Pacific Mining Limited
0.02
-0.02
-54.55%
AU:FEG
Far East Gold Ltd
0.18
>-0.01
-2.78%
AU:MM1
Midas Minerals Limited
0.73
0.63
630.00%
AU:MKR
Manuka Resources Ltd
0.18
0.15
660.87%

Southern Palladium Ltd. Corporate Events

Southern Palladium Advances Bengwenyama PGM Project and Secures A$20m Funding Boost
Jan 30, 2026

Southern Palladium reported strong progress in the December 2025 quarter on advancing the Bengwenyama PGM project toward development, with key Definitive Feasibility Study activities moving ahead, including completion of drilling for metallurgical assays, ongoing geotechnical drilling in the South block, and surface geotechnical work across planned decline and plant site areas to refine mine design and de-risk Stage 1 development. The company also advanced permitting by lodging all required documentation under South Africa’s mining legislation and submitting its Environmental Guarantee, while a A$20 million capital raising significantly strengthened its balance sheet, fully funding completion of the DFS and early mine development activities and positioning Southern Palladium for a potential Mining Right approval and Final Investment Decision in 2026, reinforcing its standing as a high-quality PGM development play amid supportive market conditions and rising institutional interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Retracts Updated Bengwenyama Financial Forecasts After ASX Query
Jan 22, 2026

Southern Palladium has retracted updated forecast financial information it presented on 15 January 2026 for the Bengwenyama Project, after the ASX advised that the projections were based on materially different commodity price assumptions than those used in the company’s Optimised Prefeasibility Study and were not supported by an updated pre-feasibility study in line with listing rules. The company has removed several comparative resource and valuation graphs and tables from the investor presentation, confirmed that the Optimised Prefeasibility Study released in July 2025 remains current and unchanged, warned investors not to rely on the withdrawn forecasts, and signalled that it is working towards a Definitive Feasibility Study targeted for release in the third quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Showcases Bengwenyama Project at Future Minerals Forum
Jan 15, 2026

Southern Palladium announced that its Executive Chairman, Roger Baxter, is presenting at the “Gateway to Funding” segment of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, a leading global mining investment conference. The appearance provides a platform to highlight progress on the Bengwenyama project to an international investor audience, underscoring the company’s efforts to raise its profile, attract funding, and reinforce its positioning as a significant emerging player in the global PGM sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 9, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Roger Baxter, reflecting an acquisition of 275,229 performance rights. This change highlights the company’s ongoing management and operational adjustments, which could influence its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

Southern Palladium Updates Director’s Interest Holdings
Dec 9, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Mr. Johan Odendaal, reflecting updates in his direct and indirect securities holdings. This change is part of the company’s compliance with listing rules, ensuring transparency in its governance practices, which could impact stakeholder perceptions of the company’s management integrity.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 9, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Mike Stirzaker, reflecting updates in his indirect interests through entities such as Stith Pty Ltd and Grafton Bond Investments Pty Ltd. This change, effective from December 8, 2025, may impact the company’s governance and stakeholder perceptions, as it highlights the ongoing adjustments in leadership interests within the company.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 9, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest for Ms. Lindi Nkosi-Thomas, with the acquisition of 96,330 Zero Exercise Price Options. This change in director’s interest reflects ongoing adjustments in the company’s governance and could influence investor perceptions and stakeholder engagement.

Southern Palladium Issues New Employee Incentive Options
Dec 8, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has announced the issuance of 385,320 unquoted zero exercise price options as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at motivating and retaining key personnel, potentially enhancing the company’s operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with shareholder value.

Southern Palladium Completes Second Tranche Placement, Raising A$12.74 Million
Dec 8, 2025

Southern Palladium Ltd. has successfully completed the second tranche of its placement, issuing 11,581,815 fully paid ordinary shares at $1.10 per share, raising A$12.74 million. This move, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, strengthens its financial position and aligns with its strategic goals, potentially enhancing its market presence and stakeholder value.

Southern Palladium AGM Resolutions Passed; Name Change Withdrawn
Nov 28, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced that all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were successfully carried. However, a proposed resolution to change the company’s name to Southern Platinum Limited was withdrawn following feedback from major shareholders. This decision reflects the company’s responsiveness to shareholder input, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Southern Palladium Unveils Strategic Insights at AGM
Nov 28, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced the release of the Managing Director’s presentation at their Annual General Meeting. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational updates, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Increased Shareholding
Nov 24, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ms. Lindi Nkosi-Thomas acquiring an additional 46,800 ordinary shares. This change reflects a direct interest and suggests confidence in the company’s future prospects, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

Southern Palladium Advances Bengwenyama Project with Key Developments
Nov 23, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has announced significant progress in the Bengwenyama PGM Project, with the commencement of metallurgical and geotechnical drilling as part of the Definitive Feasibility Study. The company is fast-tracking the development of the Southern Decline to intersect the UG2 reef, which is expected to derisk near-term project development and facilitate future financing. The project is on track with optimized designs and operational readiness, and Southern Palladium is evaluating processing options to ensure efficient transition from development to operations.

Southern Palladium Completes Share Purchase Plan
Nov 19, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has successfully completed a Share Purchase Plan, issuing 59,092 fully paid ordinary shares at $1.10 each, raising A$65,001.20. This issuance aligns with the company’s compliance with relevant provisions of the Corporations Act, maintaining transparency and regulatory adherence, which could impact its operational credibility and stakeholder confidence.

Southern Palladium Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 19, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has announced the quotation of 59,092 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of November 19, 2025. This move is part of previously announced transactions, potentially enhancing the company’s market presence and providing additional liquidity for stakeholders.

Southern Palladium Completes Share Purchase Plan to Fund Bengwenyama Development
Nov 19, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has successfully completed its Share Purchase Plan (SPP), which was conducted alongside a two-tranche placement that raised A$20 million. The SPP allowed eligible shareholders to purchase new shares at the placement price, raising an additional A$65,000. The funds from these initiatives will be used to complete a Definitive Feasibility Study and advance mine development activities at the Bengwenyama site. The completion of this capital raise strengthens Southern Palladium’s financial position and supports its strategic goals in advancing its mining projects.

Southern Palladium Retains Name Amid Shareholder Feedback
Nov 9, 2025

Southern Palladium Limited has decided to withdraw a resolution to change its name to Southern Platinum Limited following feedback from major shareholders. The decision to retain the current name preserves the company’s established identity and brand equity as a recognized PGM developer, particularly in relation to its Bengwenyama Project in South Africa.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 24, 2026