Southern Palladium Ltd. (SPD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$271.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 184.96K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 29.91%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Other Precious Metals
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 125,540,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 120,355
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 184,959
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -52.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▼(-23.08% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (no revenue, recurring losses, and ongoing cash burn), despite the benefit of a debt-free balance sheet. Technicals are moderately supportive with a strong longer-term uptrend and neutral momentum, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Zero-debt balance sheet

A consistently zero-debt position materially reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk for a capital-intensive explorer. This conservatively financed base gives management financial flexibility to prioritize project studies or staged development without immediate interest burdens, improving project optionality over the medium term.

Flagship Bengwenyama PGM project

Holding a defined flagship PGM asset provides the company's principal pathway to long-term value creation if resources are advanced. The focused project-level strategy concentrates technical and capital allocation, enabling clearer milestones for resource definition, permitting and potential development over the coming 2–6 months and beyond.

Sizable equity and asset base

A tangible equity and asset base provides a cushion against exploration setbacks and funds near-term technical work. Assets roughly in line with equity indicate limited external leverage, allowing the company to sustain early-stage activities and negotiations with partners while retaining structural capacity to pursue project advancement.

Negative Factors

No revenue; persistent net losses

The company lacks an operating revenue stream and records recurring, material net losses, which means it cannot self-fund exploration or studies from operations. Over the medium term, continued losses will erode equity and require external capital to sustain project advancement, making progress contingent on financing outcomes.

Consistent operating cash burn

Repeated negative operating and free cash flow signals structural cash burn rather than cyclical timing. Persistent outflows increase reliance on new funding rounds, create execution risk for technical programs, and can force project slowdowns or reprioritization if capital markets are constrained.

Reliance on capital raising; dilution risk

With no operating cash engine, the company depends on equity raises to finance exploration and studies. Continued negative returns on equity and ongoing cash needs make future dilutive financings likely, which can materially dilute existing holders and constrain long-term per-share value creation absent clear development milestones.

Southern Palladium Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Southern Palladium Limited engages in the exploration and development of platinum group metals. It holds a 100% interest in the Bengwenyama Palladium/rhodium project located on the Eastern Limb of the Bushveld, South Africa. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Southern Palladium Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the exploration and potential extraction of palladium resources. The company invests in the identification and development of palladium-rich mining sites, aiming to bring these sites into production. Once operational, revenue is earned through the sale of extracted palladium on the global commodities market. Key revenue streams include the sale of palladium to industrial manufacturers and other buyers who utilize the metal for its catalytic and electronic properties. Additionally, Southern Palladium Ltd. may engage in partnerships or joint ventures with other mining companies to share the costs and profits associated with exploration and extraction activities.

Southern Palladium Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals are weak: no revenue across 2021–2025, persistent net losses, and ongoing cash burn (negative operating and free cash flow each year). The main offset is a conservatively financed balance sheet with zero debt and sizable equity, reducing financial risk but not eliminating dilution risk if funding is needed.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across the available annual periods (2021–2025), consistent with a pre-production/exploration profile. Losses are persistent and volatile: net income swung from a smaller loss in 2021 (-0.3M) to larger deficits in 2022–2025 (roughly -2.5M to -7.2M), with 2025 still meaningfully negative (-4.8M). With no revenue base, margins are not informative and profitability is entirely dependent on cost discipline and future project monetization.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively financed with zero debt reported in every year, which reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk. Equity remains sizable (about 29.0M in 2025 vs. 25.0M in 2024), and assets are broadly in line with equity (assets ~29.7M in 2025), indicating limited leverage. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity (approximately -16% in 2025 and worse in 2024), implying continued value dilution risk if losses persist and additional equity funding is required.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is negative, with operating cash flow and free cash flow below zero in every year provided, including a larger cash outflow in 2025 (-1.16M) versus minimal outflows shown in prior years. Free cash flow also does not cover profitability shortfalls because net income remains deeply negative, reinforcing reliance on external funding. While the reported free cash flow growth appears to swing sharply year-to-year, the core takeaway is consistent cash burn without an operating cash engine.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-4.05M	0.00	-6.45M	0.00	-258.34K
Net Income	-4.78M	-6.73M	-7.18M	-2.50M	-258.34K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	29.73M	25.11M	31.29M	40.69M	1.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.92M	5.43M	11.55M	17.87M	1.36M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	698.75K	137.81K	99.29K	410.33K	87.24K
Stockholders Equity	29.04M	24.97M	31.19M	40.28M	1.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.16M	-894.00	-1.06K	-1.36K	-343.00
Operating Cash Flow	-1.16M	-894.00	-1.06K	-1.36K	-343.00
Investing Cash Flow	-2.35M	-5.22M	-5.26M	-889.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	8.00M	0.00	0.00	17.86M	1.56M

Southern Palladium Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SPD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.15, above the 50-day MA of 2.19, and above the 200-day MA of 1.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SPD.

Southern Palladium Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
IDA	54 Neutral	AU$26.41M	0.27	239.14%	270.27%	―	―
SPD	49 Neutral	AU$271.17M	-41.14	-17.70%	―	―	29.91%
RIM	49 Neutral	AU$44.26M	-7.27	-29.96%	―	―	-214.29%
FEG	47 Neutral	AU$58.72M	-7.84	-17.91%	―	―	-213.85%
MM1	46 Neutral	AU$199.47M	-56.65	-31.71%	―	―	―
MKR	44 Neutral	AU$197.87M	-6.55	-174.83%	―	-100.00%	24.82%

Southern Palladium Ltd. Corporate Events

Southern Palladium to Showcase Bengwenyama PGM Project at Cape Town Investor Conference

Southern Palladium has announced it will present to shareholders and potential investors at the 1-2-1 Mining Investment Conference in Cape Town, South Africa. The company is using the forum to showcase its Bengwenyama platinum group metals project, positioning the asset as a potential next world-class development opportunity within the Bushveld Complex and seeking to deepen engagement with both Australian and South African capital markets.

The conference appearance underscores Southern Palladium’s efforts to raise its profile among global mining investors and to highlight the strategic significance of its Bushveld portfolio. By aligning its investor outreach with a major industry gathering, the company aims to reinforce its growth narrative in the platinum group metals sector and potentially attract additional interest from institutional and retail stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Advances Bengwenyama DFS with Drilling, Design and Metallurgy Milestones

Southern Palladium reported strong progress on the Definitive Feasibility Study for its Bengwenyama PGM Project, with Phase 2 drilling about halfway complete at 6,651 metres across 52 drillholes and 37 deflections. Key technical workstreams, including metallurgical sampling, surface geotechnical drilling and test pitting, have been completed, while underground geotechnical and resource infill drilling remain on schedule, backed by results that support the geological model and enable shallower, more consistent reef access. The company is also optimising its mine design, increasing the decline gradient to reduce development metres with limited cost impact, advancing metallurgical test work on a conventional MF2 processing circuit aimed at improving chromite recovery, and moving into early development planning with contractor RFQs issued and site mobilisation targeted from mid-2026, keeping DFS completion on track for the end of August 2026 and marking a key de-risking step for the project and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Advances Bengwenyama PGM Project and Secures A$20m Funding Boost

Southern Palladium reported strong progress in the December 2025 quarter on advancing the Bengwenyama PGM project toward development, with key Definitive Feasibility Study activities moving ahead, including completion of drilling for metallurgical assays, ongoing geotechnical drilling in the South block, and surface geotechnical work across planned decline and plant site areas to refine mine design and de-risk Stage 1 development. The company also advanced permitting by lodging all required documentation under South Africa’s mining legislation and submitting its Environmental Guarantee, while a A$20 million capital raising significantly strengthened its balance sheet, fully funding completion of the DFS and early mine development activities and positioning Southern Palladium for a potential Mining Right approval and Final Investment Decision in 2026, reinforcing its standing as a high-quality PGM development play amid supportive market conditions and rising institutional interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Retracts Updated Bengwenyama Financial Forecasts After ASX Query

Southern Palladium has retracted updated forecast financial information it presented on 15 January 2026 for the Bengwenyama Project, after the ASX advised that the projections were based on materially different commodity price assumptions than those used in the company’s Optimised Prefeasibility Study and were not supported by an updated pre-feasibility study in line with listing rules. The company has removed several comparative resource and valuation graphs and tables from the investor presentation, confirmed that the Optimised Prefeasibility Study released in July 2025 remains current and unchanged, warned investors not to rely on the withdrawn forecasts, and signalled that it is working towards a Definitive Feasibility Study targeted for release in the third quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Showcases Bengwenyama Project at Future Minerals Forum

Southern Palladium announced that its Executive Chairman, Roger Baxter, is presenting at the “Gateway to Funding” segment of the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, a leading global mining investment conference. The appearance provides a platform to highlight progress on the Bengwenyama project to an international investor audience, underscoring the company’s efforts to raise its profile, attract funding, and reinforce its positioning as a significant emerging player in the global PGM sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SPD) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Southern Palladium Ltd. stock, see the AU:SPD Stock Forecast page.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Roger Baxter, reflecting an acquisition of 275,229 performance rights. This change highlights the company’s ongoing management and operational adjustments, which could influence its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

Southern Palladium Updates Director’s Interest Holdings

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest for Mr. Johan Odendaal, reflecting updates in his direct and indirect securities holdings. This change is part of the company’s compliance with listing rules, ensuring transparency in its governance practices, which could impact stakeholder perceptions of the company’s management integrity.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Mike Stirzaker, reflecting updates in his indirect interests through entities such as Stith Pty Ltd and Grafton Bond Investments Pty Ltd. This change, effective from December 8, 2025, may impact the company’s governance and stakeholder perceptions, as it highlights the ongoing adjustments in leadership interests within the company.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Interest Change

Southern Palladium Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest for Ms. Lindi Nkosi-Thomas, with the acquisition of 96,330 Zero Exercise Price Options. This change in director’s interest reflects ongoing adjustments in the company’s governance and could influence investor perceptions and stakeholder engagement.

Southern Palladium Issues New Employee Incentive Options

Southern Palladium Limited has announced the issuance of 385,320 unquoted zero exercise price options as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at motivating and retaining key personnel, potentially enhancing the company’s operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with shareholder value.

Southern Palladium Completes Second Tranche Placement, Raising A$12.74 Million

Southern Palladium Ltd. has successfully completed the second tranche of its placement, issuing 11,581,815 fully paid ordinary shares at $1.10 per share, raising A$12.74 million. This move, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, strengthens its financial position and aligns with its strategic goals, potentially enhancing its market presence and stakeholder value.

Southern Palladium AGM Resolutions Passed; Name Change Withdrawn

Southern Palladium Limited announced that all resolutions at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were successfully carried. However, a proposed resolution to change the company’s name to Southern Platinum Limited was withdrawn following feedback from major shareholders. This decision reflects the company’s responsiveness to shareholder input, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Southern Palladium Unveils Strategic Insights at AGM

Southern Palladium Limited announced the release of the Managing Director’s presentation at their Annual General Meeting. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational updates, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor confidence.

Southern Palladium Announces Director’s Increased Shareholding

Southern Palladium Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ms. Lindi Nkosi-Thomas acquiring an additional 46,800 ordinary shares. This change reflects a direct interest and suggests confidence in the company’s future prospects, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions positively.

Southern Palladium Advances Bengwenyama Project with Key Developments

Southern Palladium Limited has announced significant progress in the Bengwenyama PGM Project, with the commencement of metallurgical and geotechnical drilling as part of the Definitive Feasibility Study. The company is fast-tracking the development of the Southern Decline to intersect the UG2 reef, which is expected to derisk near-term project development and facilitate future financing. The project is on track with optimized designs and operational readiness, and Southern Palladium is evaluating processing options to ensure efficient transition from development to operations.