NOVONIX Ltd (NVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$365.40M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 4.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.11
• Revenue Growth: -12.84%
• EPS Growth: -29.62%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 200
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Electrical Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 859,775,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,337,951
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,257,492
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 38.61
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.83
• Price Target Upside: 10.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.41 ▼(-45.33% Downside)

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, and deteriorating negative free cash flow). Technical indicators add caution as the stock trades below major moving averages with subdued momentum, while valuation signals are constrained by a negative P/E and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Exposure to EV and energy storage markets

NOVONIX's focus on high-purity graphite and battery testing aligns with structural EV and grid storage growth. This persistent end-market expansion supports multi-year demand for materials and services, underpinning revenue potential if the company converts technology leadership into scalable sales.

High gross margins on products

Sustained high gross margins on graphite and testing services indicate strong product-level economics and potential pricing power. If volume recovers, these margins provide a structural buffer to cover fixed costs and support operating leverage, aiding durability of future profitability.

Moderate leverage and equity buffer

A moderate debt load and a ~61% equity ratio give NOVONIX financial flexibility relative to highly leveraged peers. This capital structure helps absorb near-term losses and supports continued R&D and capacity buildout without excessive insolvency risk, aiding medium-term resilience.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

A sharp revenue decline undermines scale economics, weakens supplier and customer leverage, and raises the fixed-cost burden. Sustained top-line contraction over multiple quarters risks eroding market position and delays the time horizon to achieve positive operating leverage and sustainable profits.

Persistent negative cash flow and worsening FCF

Growing cash burn and worsening free cash flow constrain the company's ability to fund operations and capital projects internally. Over months this increases reliance on external financing, raises dilution and refinancing risk, and limits capacity to invest in capacity or commercial expansion.

Ongoing losses and negative EBITDA

Persistent unprofitability and negative EBITDA mean the core business hasn’t demonstrated self-sustaining economics. This hampers long-term investor confidence, limits strategic options, and requires clear progress to positive operating cash flow to validate the business model and support growth investments.

NOVONIX Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Novonix Limited develops and supplies battery materials, equipment, and services to the lithium-ion battery market in North America. It operates through three segments: Graphite Exploration and Mining, Battery Technology, and Battery Materials. The Graphite Exploration and Mining segment explores for graphite in Australia. The Battery Technology segment develops battery cell testing equipment and batteries, and consulting services. The Battery Materials segment develops and manufactures battery anode materials. The company is also involved in the investment and battery testing activities. The company was formerly known as Graphitecorp Limited and changed its name to Novonix Limited in July 2017. Novonix Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

NOVONIX generates revenue through multiple channels. Its primary revenue stream comes from the sale of high-purity graphite, which is used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage systems. The company also earns income from its battery testing services, providing specialized testing and consulting to battery manufacturers and developers. Additionally, NOVONIX has established strategic partnerships with key players in the energy sector, which can lead to joint ventures and collaborative projects, further enhancing its revenue potential. The growing demand for electric vehicles and sustainable energy solutions significantly contributes to the company's earnings.

NOVONIX Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NOVONIX Ltd is facing financial difficulties characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. While the balance sheet shows moderate leverage, the reduction in equity and assets, along with poor cash flow performance, suggests the company is under financial pressure. Strategic improvements in revenue generation and cost management are essential for recovery.

Income Statement

NOVONIX Ltd has faced significant challenges in its income statement. The company experienced a negative revenue growth rate over the past year, with Total Revenue dropping from $12.13 million to $5.85 million. The Gross Profit Margin improved slightly from 76.77% to 69.75%, but the Net Profit Margin remains negative, showing substantial losses. The absence of EBIT and negative EBITDA further highlight profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.51, indicating some leverage but not excessively high. Stockholders' Equity decreased, and the Total Assets fell from $263.34 million to $226.10 million. The Equity Ratio is 60.86%, suggesting a reasonable reliance on equity over liabilities. However, the decline in equity and assets raises concerns.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative Free Cash Flow growth, with Free Cash Flow dropping from -$55.42 million to -$70.32 million. Operating Cash Flow is negative and worsening, and both the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio and Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio indicate inefficiencies in cash generation relative to income.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.85M	8.05M	3.69M	6.10M	5.23M
Gross Profit	4.08M	5.24M	-20.63M	4.38M	-3.28M
EBITDA	-66.61M	-38.86M	-33.28M	-46.18M	-12.04M
Net Income	-74.82M	-46.25M	-38.08M	-51.86M	-13.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	226.10M	263.34M	189.59M	302.98M	202.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.56M	78.63M	73.93M	142.74M	136.66M
Total Debt	70.42M	132.83M	40.37M	41.41M	10.27M
Total Liabilities	88.51M	83.74M	51.37M	51.85M	24.68M
Stockholders Equity	137.59M	183.94M	151.39M	251.13M	178.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-70.32M	-55.42M	-29.65M	-113.02M	-25.66M
Operating Cash Flow	-40.42M	-36.23M	-12.89M	-29.23M	-6.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-18.17M	-11.74M	-16.10M	-106.80M	-19.68M
Financing Cash Flow	25.21M	29.31M	-531.57K	180.69M	103.77M

NOVONIX Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.46, above the 50-day MA of 0.45, and above the 200-day MA of 0.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NVX.

NOVONIX Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SGI	66 Neutral	AU$189.19M	48.10	12.33%	0.74%	24.67%	96.27%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
VEE	57 Neutral	AU$105.66M	32.43	5.66%	1.28%	-14.88%	-56.89%
LIS	52 Neutral	AU$102.43M	-15.84	-16.49%	―	―	-40.28%
NVX	43 Neutral	AU$365.40M	-2.24	-45.24%	―	-12.84%	-29.62%

NOVONIX Ltd Corporate Events

NOVONIX Delays Panasonic Anode Mass Production to 2027 but Stays on Track for Industrial Graphite in 2026

NOVONIX has revised the timeline for mass production of synthetic graphite anode material for its key customer Panasonic Energy, now expecting production for Panasonic to begin in the second half of 2027 instead of 2026, while remaining on track to start mass production of industrial-grade synthetic graphite for other customers this year. The change reflects the rigorous and variable qualification process required to meet Panasonic’s specific material standards, but the company emphasizes its continued close collaboration with Panasonic and its progress in commissioning and installing mass-production equipment, underscoring its strategic role in developing a North American synthetic graphite supply chain for the battery industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares

NOVONIX Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,000,725 ordinary fully paid shares, effective 13 January 2026. The new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, modestly increasing the company’s quoted share capital and potentially affecting its capital structure and liquidity profile for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Seeks ASX Quotation for 18.7 Million New Shares

NOVONIX Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 18,700,876 new fully paid ordinary shares, issued on 12 January 2026. The additional shares, resulting from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, will expand the company’s quoted capital base and may have implications for existing shareholders through dilution and increased trading liquidity once admitted to quotation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

Novonix Investor YA II PN, Ltd. Ceases to Be Substantial Holder After Share Sale

Novonix Limited has disclosed that YA II PN, Ltd. has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company following the disposal of its shareholding. According to the notice, YA II PN, Ltd. sold 1,631,473 fully paid ordinary shares in Novonix for approximately $846,396.57, reducing its voting power below the substantial holding threshold and potentially broadening the company’s shareholder base as a significant investor exits its position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Performance Rights Lapse After Conditions Go Unmet

NOVONIX Ltd has reported the lapse of 1,342,570 performance rights that were on issue under ASX code NVXAD after the conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied by 31 December 2025. The cessation of these conditional securities reduces the company’s pool of potential equity issuance tied to performance incentives, marginally tightening its issued capital structure and signaling that certain performance or service milestones linked to these rights were not achieved within the prescribed timeframe.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Announces Application for Quotation of Securities

NOVONIX Limited has announced the application for quotation of 18,833 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This step reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align with its strategic goals, potentially enhancing its market presence and providing additional opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Ltd Appoints New Director with Significant Performance Rights

NOVONIX Ltd has announced the appointment of Mike O’Kronley as a director, effective December 15, 2025. As part of his appointment, O’Kronley holds 3,723,971 performance rights, indicating a significant stake in the company’s future performance. This move is expected to strengthen NOVONIX’s leadership team and potentially enhance its strategic direction in the competitive battery materials industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Appoints CEO Mike O’Kronley as Managing Director

NOVONIX Limited has announced the appointment of its CEO, Mike O’Kronley, as Managing Director, effective December 15, 2025. This move is expected to enhance the company’s strategic execution and governance framework, aligning with its goals of strengthening board oversight. The appointment underscores NOVONIX’s commitment to its strategic objectives and may positively impact its operations and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Announces Issuance of Performance Rights

NOVONIX Limited has announced the issuance of 489,818 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize its workforce and potentially align employee interests with corporate goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.

NOVONIX Ltd Strengthens Market Position with Key Developments and Strategic Funding

NOVONIX Ltd has achieved significant milestones, including delivering its first mass production sample of synthetic graphite and completing the installation of mass production equipment for Panasonic. The company has also been selected for a grant from Natural Resources Canada and has been advancing its patented cathode technology. Additionally, NOVONIX has secured substantial funding through convertible debentures with Yorkville Advisors, completed strategic sales, and made key executive appointments, positioning itself strongly in the battery materials market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NVX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NOVONIX Ltd stock, see the AU:NVX Stock Forecast page.