Lion Energy Limited (LIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$8.14M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 205.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -47.23%
• EPS Growth: -2.78%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 452,167,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 80,260
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 205,915
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 15.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.02 ▼(-20.00% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, declining revenue, and sustained cash burn—despite modest leverage. Technicals are a relative positive with an uptrend and positive MACD, but RSI near 70 suggests stretched momentum. Valuation is also pressured by negative earnings (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Low balance-sheet leverage

A low debt-to-equity (~0.20) reduces near-term solvency risk and gives management flexibility to raise capital or refinance if needed. Over a multi-month horizon this supports continued operations during cash burn and preserves option value for funding exploration or development.

Positive gross margin on operations

A ~31% gross margin indicates core production or commodity economics are sound despite operating losses. Structurally, this suggests unit economics can support profitability if overheads and operating cash burn are controlled or if production scales, aiding medium-term margin recovery.

Positioned in hydrocarbons E&P market

Operating in Oil & Gas exploration and production gives exposure to a commodity-linked market with durable energy demand. This structural placement can enable asset monetisation, partnerships, or value capture through commodity cycles over the coming months if operational execution improves.

Negative Factors

Consistent operating and net losses

Persistent losses and declining revenue erode financial resilience and stakeholder equity. Over a 2-6 month horizon this reduces reinvestment capacity, forces prioritisation of cash needs, and raises the likelihood of needing external capital or strategic restructuring to restore viability.

Negative operating and free cash flow (cash burn)

Ongoing negative OCF and FCF create structural funding pressure, increasing reliance on external financing or asset sales. Over months this heightens dilution risk, constrains capital for exploration or development, and limits strategic flexibility to pursue growth or cover obligations.

Eroding equity and negative returns

Material equity decline and negative ROE reflect capital erosion and potential asset-value pressure. Structurally, this makes future capital raises more dilutive or expensive, may force asset disposals at weak prices, and undermines long-term investor returns unless profitability reverses.

Lion Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lion Energy Limited (LIO) is an energy company primarily focused on the exploration and development of oil and gas resources. It operates within the energy sector, with a focus on identifying and developing key energy assets in its portfolio to maximize shareholder value. The company engages in activities related to the exploration, production, and sale of oil and gas products.

How the Company Makes Money

Lion Energy Limited generates revenue through its exploration and production activities in the oil and gas industry. The company earns money by discovering and developing oil and gas reserves, which are then extracted and sold to various markets. Revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and related hydrocarbons. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production costs, and the successful development and management of its energy assets. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures may also play a role in enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities, although specific partnerships are not detailed.

Lion Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are very weak: the company is consistently loss-making with shrinking revenue (2024 down ~23.6% YoY) and persistent negative operating and free cash flow (2024 FCF ~-A$2.98M), implying continued funding needs. Balance-sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.20), but equity has declined materially and ROE remains negative, keeping overall financial risk elevated.

Income Statement

Profitability remains weak: the company is consistently loss-making (2024 net loss of ~A$0.9M) with deeply negative operating profitability despite a positive gross margin (2024 gross margin ~31%). Revenue has also been shrinking recently (2024 revenue down ~23.6% vs. 2023), and operating losses are large relative to revenue, indicating the cost base is not scaling with sales.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable on the latest annual report, with debt-to-equity still low (2024 ~0.20), which reduces near-term balance-sheet risk. However, equity has declined materially over time (2024 equity ~A$6.45M vs. 2023 ~A$10.33M), and returns to shareholders remain negative (2024 return on equity ~-13%), reflecting ongoing losses and potential dilution/asset value pressure if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weakness: operating cash flow is negative across the entire period (2024 ~-A$1.25M), and free cash flow is also consistently negative (2024 ~-A$2.98M). Free cash flow deterioration in 2024 (down ~43% vs. 2023) suggests ongoing funding needs, and cash burn persisting alongside accounting losses increases reliance on external capital or asset sales.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	297.06K	522.39K	610.23K	1.58M	885.89K	1.36M
Gross Profit	-235.62K	162.98K	249.12K	929.47K	447.29K	519.37K
EBITDA	-1.32M	-1.86M	-2.10M	-2.08M	-1.08M	-405.61K
Net Income	-1.67M	-868.00K	-1.41M	-2.72M	-2.44M	-1.08M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.61M	8.15M	11.95M	13.79M	13.83M	2.73M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.17M	1.95M	3.02M	9.60M	11.94M	857.41K
Total Debt	2.14M	1.48M	0.00	0.00	1.88M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.85M	1.70M	1.61M	1.85M	2.58M	589.34K
Stockholders Equity	8.76M	6.45M	10.33M	11.94M	11.25M	2.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-3.14M	-2.98M	-6.54M	-2.58M	-1.07M	-1.88M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.18M	-1.25M	-1.89M	-908.32K	-717.34K	-549.97K
Investing Cash Flow	2.39M	351.13K	-4.77M	-1.67M	-56.80K	-893.01K
Financing Cash Flow	-198.16K	997.04K	0.00	129.94K	11.66M	0.00

Lion Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.02, above the 50-day MA of 0.01, and above the 200-day MA of 0.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LIO.

Lion Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SHE	51 Neutral	AU$4.11M	―	-9.49%	―	-16.79%	-205.26%
LIO	46 Neutral	AU$8.14M	-4.86	-16.03%	―	-47.23%	-2.78%
TEG	44 Neutral	AU$6.60M	―	―	―	―	―
GLL	42 Neutral	AU$6.29M	-1.72	-1481.88%	―	―	36.96%

Lion Energy Limited Corporate Events

Lion Energy Secures East Seram Funding as It Tempers Hydrogen Spend

Lion Energy has secured funding for the Bula Karang-1 exploration well in the East Seram PSC after finalising farm-out terms with partner OPIC East Seram Corporation, which will fund 88% of drilling costs in return for an increased stake. The well, targeting a mid-case prospective resource of 12 mmboe and expected to spud in the June–July 2026 window, will be drilled from onshore to an offshore target to lower capital costs and enable rapid monetisation if successful, leveraging nearby producing fields and existing export infrastructure; meanwhile, Lion is moderating expenditure on its Port of Brisbane green hydrogen project while it seeks government grant support, underscoring a disciplined capital approach across both its hydrocarbons and emerging hydrogen portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LIO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion Energy Limited stock, see the AU:LIO Stock Forecast page.

Lion Energy Flags Potential New Oil Play at Bula Bay, Seram Island

Lion Energy has provided an investor update highlighting a potential new oil play at Bula Bay on Seram Island in eastern Indonesia. The company outlines that the area may contain prospective petroleum resources, defined as potentially recoverable quantities from undiscovered accumulations, but stresses that further exploration, appraisal and evaluation are required to confirm any significant moveable hydrocarbons and future development potential, underscoring both the opportunity and the technical and commercial risks for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LIO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion Energy Limited stock, see the AU:LIO Stock Forecast page.

Lion Energy Sets Investor Webinar on East Seram Farm-Out and Bula Karang Drilling Plans

Lion Energy will host a live investor briefing webinar on 16 January 2026, led by Executive Chairman Tom Soulsby and Exploration Manager Kim Morrison, to update shareholders, investors and media on its recently announced farm-out agreement with partner OPIC, a subsidiary of Taiwan’s CPC Corporation, to drill an exploration well targeting the Bula Karang oil prospect in the East Seram PSC in Indonesia. The session, which includes an interactive Q&A and a replay to be posted on the company’s social channels, underscores Lion’s effort to engage the market around a potentially significant exploration campaign that could influence its Indonesian growth strategy and shape investor perceptions of the company’s exploration upside.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LIO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion Energy Limited stock, see the AU:LIO Stock Forecast page.

Lion Energy Secures OPIC Funding for High-Impact East Seram Exploration Well

Lion Energy has secured majority funding for the planned Bula Karang exploration well in Indonesia’s East Seram Production Sharing Contract through a farm-out agreement with its existing partner OPIC East Seram Corporation, a subsidiary of Taiwan’s CPC Corporation. Under the deal, OPIC will fund 88% of the estimated US$5.6 million drilling cost in return for an additional 15% participating interest, leaving Lion with a 45% stake in the PSC and a net funding obligation of about US$0.7 million, supported by proceeds from its recent Seram Non-Bula divestment. The shallow Bula Karang prospect, which carries a P50 prospective resource estimate of 12 million barrels of oil and can be drilled from onshore to an offshore target near existing producing fields and infrastructure, is scheduled to spud in the second quarter of 2026 and is designed for early production in the event of success, potentially extending the PSC term by 20 years and materially enhancing Lion’s growth prospects while limiting its financial exposure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LIO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lion Energy Limited stock, see the AU:LIO Stock Forecast page.

Lion Energy Limited Announces Cessation of Convertible Notes

Lion Energy Limited announced the cessation of 1,600,000 convertible notes due to repayment or redemption without conversion. This move may impact the company’s financial structure by reducing its convertible debt obligations, potentially influencing its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Lion Energy Extends Maturity of $1.6 Million Convertible Notes

Lion Energy Limited has announced the successful extension of the maturity date for its $1.6 million Convertible Notes, originally issued in May 2024, by one year to 31 December 2026. This strategic move involves issuing new notes to current holders and redeeming existing ones at face value, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and stakeholder interests positively.