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State Gas Ltd. (AU:GAS)
ASX:GAS
Australian Market

State Gas Ltd. (GAS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:GAS

State Gas Ltd.

(Sydney:GAS)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.04
▲(20.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals—ongoing losses and negative operating/free cash flow—despite a relatively low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals provide some support with the price trading above key moving averages and MACD positive, but valuation remains challenged due to the company being loss-making and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage Balance Sheet
A low debt-to-equity ratio provides durable financial flexibility, reducing default risk while the company executes longer-term exploration and development plans. This resilience supports the ability to raise capital or fund operations during prolonged cash-flow weakness.
Revenue Growth Trajectory
Reported revenue growth indicates the business is expanding top-line activity or production, a structural prerequisite for reaching profitability. Sustained revenue gains over months support scale, operational leverage and improve the path to durable margin improvement if costs are controlled.
Access to Capital Markets (ASX Listing)
A primary listing on the ASX gives the company ongoing access to equity and debt capital, which is critical for funding exploration, development and cash shortfalls. This institutional access enhances long-term financing options and strategic flexibility versus unlisted peers.
Negative Factors
Persistent Loss-Making
Ongoing negative net profit and EBIT margins signal the company is structurally unprofitable and burning value. Without a credible path to sustained positive operating margins, equity holders face long-term dilution or write-down risk as the business needs continual funding.
Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow
Consistent negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business is not self-funding its activities. Over a multi-month horizon this necessitates external capital raises or asset sales, increases financing risk, and can limit the company’s ability to invest in value-adding projects.
Negative Return on Equity
A negative ROE is a durable sign that invested capital is destroying rather than creating value. This structural inefficiency pressures investor returns and can constrain access to low-cost capital, forcing reliance on dilutive financing if underlying profitability is not restored.

State Gas Ltd. (GAS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

State Gas Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionState Gas Limited engages in the exploration and development of gas fields in Australia. Its flagship projects are the Reid's Dome gas project comprising the production lease 231 permit and the Rolleston-West project covering an area of approximately 1,595 square kilometers located in the Bowen Basin in Central Queensland. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyState Gas Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of natural gas extracted from its production sites. The company monetizes its gas reserves by entering into supply agreements with utility companies and industrial clients, which often involve long-term contracts to ensure stable cash flow. Additionally, State Gas may engage in partnerships and joint ventures with other energy firms to expand its operational capacity and market reach, thus enhancing its revenue potential. Factors contributing to its earnings include fluctuating natural gas prices, the efficiency of its extraction technologies, and the regulatory environment affecting the energy sector.

State Gas Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial performance is weak: the income statement reflects ongoing losses (negative net profit and EBIT margins) and cash flow remains negative (operating and free cash flow). The balance sheet is a relative positive with low leverage, but negative return on equity underscores poor value creation.
Income Statement
25
Negative
State Gas Ltd. has shown some revenue growth, but profitability remains a significant concern. The company has a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating ongoing losses. Despite a slight improvement in revenue, the overall financial health from an income perspective is weak.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet shows a low debt-to-equity ratio, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the negative return on equity indicates that the company is not generating profits from its equity base, which is a concern for investors.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow metrics highlight challenges, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, suggesting that cash flow is not aligned with earnings, which could indicate inefficiencies or operational issues.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue111.96K17.41K0.000.000.00
Gross Profit111.96K-313.00K-293.00K-209.00K-3.56K
EBITDA-2.85M-3.21M-895.48K1.55M-2.94M
Net Income-3.28M-3.63M-1.19M1.34M-2.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets51.21M48.32M40.91M33.88M29.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.16M31.75K453.35K3.23M3.16M
Total Debt1.79M2.14M200.00K0.000.00
Total Liabilities8.55M8.01M4.31M2.58M4.36M
Stockholders Equity42.66M40.32M36.61M31.30M25.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-8.77M-10.84M-10.59M-7.41M-11.79M
Operating Cash Flow-2.55M-2.13M-1.33M-1.20M-1.10M
Investing Cash Flow-189.00K-7.41M-8.31M-6.24M-11.03M
Financing Cash Flow4.87M9.11M6.87M7.50M14.42M

State Gas Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.03
Price Trends
50DMA
0.03
Positive
100DMA
0.03
Positive
200DMA
0.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
69.17
Neutral
STOCH
149.57
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GAS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.03, above the 50-day MA of 0.03, and above the 200-day MA of 0.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 149.57 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GAS.

State Gas Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
56
Neutral
AU$24.59M-8.19-3.11%7.09%-275.00%
52
Neutral
AU$33.25M-0.51-13.12%-13.55%-8.96%
52
Neutral
AU$12.71M-2.13-124.89%-36.92%
47
Neutral
AU$12.21M-1.66-7.60%16.52%
44
Neutral
AU$5.56M2.86
39
Underperform
AU$8.35M-1.59-15.46%-9.56%87.68%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:GAS
State Gas Ltd.
0.03
>-0.01
-13.89%
AU:ATS
Australis Oil & Gas
0.02
0.01
140.00%
AU:QEM
QEM Limited
0.04
-0.02
-30.65%
AU:VEN
Vintage Energy Ltd.
AU:BAS
Bass Oil Ltd
0.08
0.03
54.00%
AU:TEG
Triangle Energy (Global) Limited

State Gas Ltd. Corporate Events

State Gas Reaffirms Contingent Gas Resource Estimates and Exploration Requirements
Mar 2, 2026

State Gas has reiterated the status of its contingent gas resources at its Reid’s Dome, Rolleston-West, ATP 2068 and ATP 2069 interests, confirming that the estimates, prepared under SPE–PRMS 2018 guidelines, are based on probabilistic methods and existing technical and exploration data, including seismic reprocessing, drilling and production testing. The company emphasised that further exploration and appraisal are required before any reclassification of these contingent resources to reserves, underscoring both the upside potential of its Queensland gas assets and the uncertainties and risks that remain for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas boosts funding with $3.7m convertible note issue and expanded options
Feb 9, 2026

State Gas Limited has issued 148 convertible notes with an aggregate face value of $3.7 million following shareholder approval, increasing its cash reserves by $3.2 million and creating a corresponding liability on its balance sheet. The transaction also significantly boosts the number of options on issue and allows any shares issued on conversion of the notes to be freely on‑sold to retail investors without further disclosure, enhancing the company’s funding flexibility and secondary market liquidity.

The company confirmed it has complied with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations and that there is no excluded information under the Corporations Act relevant to the new securities. Pro forma financial information prepared as at 30 June 2025 illustrates the impact of the notes and attached options, although the figures are unaudited and the final allocation between debt and equity for the notes may change.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Director Philip St Baker Increases Indirect Stake via Convertible Notes and Options
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has disclosed a change in director Philip St Baker’s relevant interests following his participation in a recently shareholder-approved issue of convertible notes and associated options. Through the P&P St Baker Family Trust, of which he is a trustee and beneficiary, St Baker has acquired 13 convertible notes and 5,416,671 convertible note options for a consideration of $325,000, in addition to his existing indirect holdings in the company’s ordinary shares via both the trust and St Baker Sunset Holdings Pty Ltd. The updated notice confirms his enlarged exposure to the company’s capital structure, underscoring continued insider financial commitment without any trades occurring during a closed period or changes to contractual interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Director Increases Indirect Stake via Convertible Notes
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has reported a change in the indirect interests of director Jon Stretch, reflecting his participation in a recently approved issue of convertible notes and associated options. Through the Stretch Family Trust, Stretch acquired two convertible notes and 833,334 convertible note options for $50,000, increasing his holdings to include these new securities in addition to his existing 6,162,669 ordinary shares, signalling continued director support for the company’s capital structure and funding arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Director Increases Exposure via Convertible Notes and Options
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has disclosed a change in director Gregory Baynton’s relevant interests, following his participation in a shareholder-approved issue of convertible notes and associated options. Through Allegro Capital Nominees Pty Ltd, an entity of which he is a director, shareholder and beneficiary, Baynton acquired three convertible notes and 1,250,001 convertible note options for a total consideration of $75,000, while his existing ordinary shareholdings across various associated entities remain unchanged, underscoring his continued financial exposure to and alignment with the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Director Increases Indirect Stake via Convertible Note Subscription
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has disclosed a change in director Anthony Bellas’s indirect interests, with entities associated with him, including Loch Explorations Pty Ltd, subscribing for two convertible notes and 833,334 convertible note options for a total consideration of $50,000. The issue of these convertible notes and options, which was approved by shareholders, modestly increases Bellas’s exposure to the company’s capital structure and signals continued director-aligned investment in State Gas, a move likely to be viewed by stakeholders as reinforcing confidence in the company’s prospects and governance alignment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Issues 9.6 Million Unquoted Broker Options
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has notified the market of the issue of 9.6 million unquoted broker options, effective 3 February 2026, under an existing equity transaction previously flagged in an earlier filing. The move expands the company’s pool of incentive securities aimed at brokers, which may support future capital-raising or market engagement efforts but will not immediately affect the company’s quoted share capital, as the options are not listed on the ASX.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Issues 148 Unquoted Convertible Notes
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has notified the market of the issue of 148 unquoted convertible notes, effective 3 February 2026. The new securities, which form part of previously announced transactions and are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, represent an additional source of funding or capital structure adjustment for the company, with potential implications for future equity if the notes are converted.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Managing Director Adjusts Equity Holdings Following Performance Rights Vesting
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has disclosed a change in Managing Director Doug McAlpine’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting adjustments to his indirect shareholding and direct performance rights. Following the vesting of Managing Director performance rights, McAlpine’s indirect holding increased by 1,125,000 ordinary shares via a related family trust, while his direct performance rights decreased by 1,375,000, leaving him with 1,285,475 ordinary shares indirectly and 2,125,000 performance rights directly, a move that aligns his remuneration more closely with shareholder outcomes without any cash consideration involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Issues New Shares on Vesting of Managing Director Performance Rights
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Limited has issued 1,125,000 fully paid ordinary shares following the vesting of performance rights granted to Managing Director Doug McAlpine, increasing its share capital without undertaking a public disclosure under the fundraising provisions of the Corporations Act. The company has confirmed it remains compliant with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations and has stated there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information, signalling that the equity issuance is a routine remuneration-related adjustment rather than a broader capital raising, and is not expected to materially alter its regulatory or market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Seeks ASX Quotation for 1.1 Million New Shares
Feb 3, 2026

State Gas Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,125,000 new fully paid ordinary shares under its ticker GAS, issued on 3 February 2026. The additional securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, modestly increasing the company’s free float and potentially enhancing liquidity for investors, while signalling some level of confidence or value realisation by holders of those instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Locks In Maiden 30.2 PJ 2P Reserve to Advance Rolleston West Gas Project
Jan 30, 2026

State Gas has secured independent certification of a maiden 2P gas reserve of 30.2 petajoules at its Rolleston West Project in central Queensland, providing a resource base sufficient to underpin a long-life, 10 terajoules per day coal seam gas development linked into the Gladstone/Wallumbilla pipeline network and serving both domestic and export markets. The new reserve, derived from only four wells and supported by an additional 3P reserve, significantly enhances the project’s economics and valuation, enabling State Gas to accelerate pre-development work using $3.2 million raised via premium-priced convertible notes, and to intensify efforts on engineering studies, regulatory approvals, gas sales negotiations, infrastructure financing and securing strategic co-investment partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Sell with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Secures Shareholder Support as It Advances Bowen Basin Gas and Virtual Pipeline Strategy
Jan 21, 2026

State Gas Limited has reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 21 January 2026 general meeting were passed by poll, providing formal board and shareholder backing for its current strategic and operational direction. The outcome reinforces the company’s plans to accelerate commercialisation of its southern Bowen Basin assets, including early-stage production at its Rolleston West (Rougemont) project and deployment of its modular HDNG facility and virtual pipeline solution, developments that could strengthen its position as a flexible gas supplier to east coast industrial users lacking direct pipeline access and support its role in the ongoing energy transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Wins ASX Waiver to Secure Director-Linked Funding Over Assets
Jan 13, 2026

State Gas Limited has secured a waiver from ASX Listing Rule 10.1, allowing it to grant security over all its assets in favour of entities associated with non-executive directors Philip St Baker and Jon Stretch for both new working capital finance facilities and existing legacy loans, without seeking prior shareholder approval. The board, excluding the interested directors, determined the funding to be on arm’s length terms after conventional lenders declined to provide debt finance within the required timeframe, and the ASX waiver is conditional on detailed disclosure of the rationale, terms and protections, including that security will be discharged once loans are repaid and that any enforcement sale of assets to related parties would still require shareholder approval, thereby balancing the company’s urgent funding needs with safeguards for ordinary security holders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Sell with a A$0.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

State Gas Seeks Shareholder Approval for Convertible Notes and Large Option Issues
Dec 22, 2025

State Gas Limited has called a general meeting of shareholders for 21 January 2026 in Brisbane to vote on several capital-raising and incentive-related resolutions. The board is seeking shareholder approval to issue up to 200 convertible notes and 83,333,400 attaching options to investors, as well as up to 9,600,000 options to lead manager Ignite Equity Pty Ltd, and a specific package of 13 convertible notes and 5,416,671 attaching options to related party director Philip St Baker, moves that would provide additional funding and align stakeholders through equity-linked securities while diluting existing holders if approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GAS) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on State Gas Ltd. stock, see the AU:GAS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 10, 2026