Carnavale Resources Limited (CAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$51.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): N/A
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.30
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -208.82%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 408,065,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 103.56
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.12 ▲(21.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses and negative operating/free cash flow with worsening FY2025 cash burn, despite a strong, debt-free balance sheet. Technical indicators are moderately supportive (price above the 20-day average and positive MACD), but valuation remains constrained by loss-making earnings and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Debt-free Balance Sheet

A zero-debt, equity-backed balance sheet gives durable financial flexibility for funding exploration cycles, farm-outs, or selective capital allocation without near-term refinancing risk. This structural strength supports sustaining operations through volatile commodity cycles and financing negotiations.

High Gross Margin Profile

A near-100% gross profit percentage indicates low direct cost of revenue and that, should commercialisation or asset sales scale, incremental revenue would have high marginal contribution. Over 2-6 months this underpins the potential for quicker path to positive operating leverage when revenues improve.

Specialized Exploration Focus

Specialist capability in exploration program design, geophysics and drilling in a Tier-1 jurisdiction provides a durable competitive position. Technical expertise and WA tenure increase odds of delineating drill-ready targets and attracting JV partners or farm-in capital over time.

Negative Factors

Persistent Cash Burn

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow implies ongoing funding needs and dilutive financing risk. Over the medium term this pressures management to secure capital or farm-down assets, which can delay exploration programs and reduce optionality if market access tightens.

Widening Net Losses / Negative ROE

Material and growing net losses with negative ROE signal that the company is destroying equity value absent a turnaround. This structural profitability weakness increases the likelihood of capital raises, constrains reinvestment, and makes long-term shareholder value creation contingent on successful exploration outcomes.

Volatile, Minimal Revenue Base

A minimal, inconsistent revenue stream tied to asset monetisation rather than operating sales limits predictability of cash flow and delays path to self-sustaining operations. This structural revenue fragility forces ongoing reliance on external funding or asset transactions to progress projects.

Carnavale Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnavale Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company in Australia. It explores for tin, lithium, cobalt, silver, nickel, gold, copper, and precious metal deposits. The company holds a 100% interest in the Grey Dam nickel sulphide project in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and 80% interest in the Kookynie gold project comprising 2 exploration licenses and 3 prospecting licenses located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. It also holds an option to acquire 80% interest in the Ora Banda South gold project that covers an area of approximately 25 square kilometers located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. Further, it is involved in investing activities. Carnavale Resources Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnavale Resources Limited makes money primarily through the exploration and eventual development of mineral resources, focusing on commodities such as gold and nickel. The company generates revenue by increasing the value of its mineral assets through exploration activities, which can lead to the sale or joint venture of projects with larger mining companies. Additionally, as exploration projects progress to development and production phases, Carnavale may derive income from the sale of extracted minerals. Key revenue streams include partnerships and agreements with other mining firms, which can provide funding, expertise, and share in the production output. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the market demand and price fluctuations of the minerals they explore, as well as its ability to effectively manage exploration and development costs.

Carnavale Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (zero debt and sizable equity) supports financial flexibility, but this is outweighed by very small/volatile revenue, widening net losses, and persistently negative operating and free cash flow with increased FY2025 cash burn.

Income Statement

Revenue remains very small and volatile, with a decline in FY2025 (down 3.5% vs. FY2024) after prior growth off a low base. Profitability is weak: the company has reported net losses every year shown, and FY2025 losses widened materially (net margin roughly -1,994% vs. about -355% in FY2024), indicating costs are running far ahead of the current revenue scale. A positive is consistently strong gross profit percentage (near 100%), but operating losses dominate the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with zero debt across all periods provided and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0. Equity is sizeable relative to assets (FY2025 equity ~$10.2M vs. assets ~$10.4M), supporting financial flexibility. The key weakness is persistent negative returns on equity (FY2025 ROE about -29.7%), reflecting ongoing losses that erode shareholder value despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative: operating cash flow is below zero each year (FY2025 about -$0.39M), and free cash flow is also deeply negative (FY2025 about -$2.52M). Free cash flow deterioration is notable in FY2025 (declining sharply vs. FY2024), pointing to higher cash burn. While reported free cash flow exceeds net loss in magnitude in several years (suggesting non-cash charges are not the main driver), the overall pattern indicates sustained funding needs until operations scale or spending moderates.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.94K	151.84K	222.57K	55.22K	3.35K	10.63K
Gross Profit	82.94K	151.84K	222.57K	54.60K	2.88K	10.63K
EBITDA	-1.13M	-438.31K	-765.00K	-550.52K	-1.49M	-1.52M
Net Income	-3.64M	-3.03M	-791.14K	-452.61K	-1.41M	-1.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.64M	10.40M	11.49M	8.98M	9.49M	7.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.27M	777.60K	1.24M	919.18K	3.25M	3.53M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	242.97K	224.62K	338.19K	379.08K	527.02K	291.66K
Stockholders Equity	16.40M	10.18M	11.15M	8.60M	8.97M	6.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.58M	-2.52M	-2.62M	-2.33M	-3.25M	-2.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-466.56K	-388.29K	-351.10K	-416.25K	-501.98K	-541.43K
Investing Cash Flow	-1.86M	-2.13M	-2.26M	-1.91M	-2.75M	-1.95M
Financing Cash Flow	6.52M	2.05M	2.94M	-1.66K	2.97M	4.83M

Carnavale Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GUL	70 Outperform	AU$21.80M	3.65	9.44%	8.14%	―	-16.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CAV	52 Neutral	AU$51.01M	-8.10	-27.39%	―	―	-208.82%
AUZ	47 Neutral	AU$30.76M	-8.18	-4.02%	―	―	74.51%
PXX	44 Neutral	AU$51.78M	-7.51	-4.73%	―	―	88.57%
AMD	41 Neutral	AU$17.08M	-0.36	-296.44%	―	―	51.48%

Carnavale Resources Limited Corporate Events

Carnavale Resources Files Half-Year Financial Report for December 2025

Carnavale Resources Limited has released its half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 31 December 2025, covering the company and its controlled entities. The report package includes the directors’ report, financial statements, notes, and the independent auditor’s review, providing stakeholders with an overview of the group’s financial position and performance for the period.

This disclosure ensures ongoing transparency and compliance with reporting requirements, offering investors and regulators insight into Carnavale’s interim financial health and corporate governance. While detailed figures are not included in the announcement text provided, the structured release indicates a standard, comprehensive half-year reporting process for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Completes Key BFS Drilling at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources has completed reverse circulation and diamond drilling programs at its Kookynie Gold Project, including metallurgical, geotechnical and infill resource drilling across the Swiftsure and Tiptoe proposed open pits. These programs aim to upgrade resources from Indicated to Measured, provide material for metallurgical variability and waste rock studies, and underpin a Bankable Feasibility Study that remains on schedule for completion by mid-2026.

The company will now move into the final stage of BFS-related drilling with production and monitoring water bores on the granted mining lease, while metallurgical testwork proceeds on large-diameter core to define gold recoveries and processing characteristics for potential toll treatment. Management highlighted that intensive fieldwork over the past five weeks, including three rigs operating continuously, has kept the feasibility timetable on track and is designed to deliver a de-risked, shovel-ready gold project by the third quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Reaffirms Kookynie Gold Project as Near-Term Production Asset

Carnavale Resources Limited has released an investor presentation highlighting its Kookynie Gold Project as a near-term production asset, underpinned by updated mineral resource estimates and economic studies. The company emphasises that the technical information has been validated by qualified Competent Persons and is consistent with prior ASX disclosures, reinforcing confidence in the project’s reported resources and study outcomes.

By reaffirming that no new material information has altered its earlier resource estimates or key assumptions, Carnavale signals stability in the project’s fundamentals for investors and stakeholders. The reliance on independent consultants and adherence to the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves supports the company’s regulatory compliance and strengthens its positioning in the Australian gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Secures Kookynie Mining Lease as BFS Drilling Ramps Up

Carnavale Resources has secured the grant of Mining Lease M40/362, which covers all resources at its Kookynie Gold Project, including the high-grade Swiftsure and Tiptoe deposits. The new lease consolidates previous prospecting and exploration holdings and provides sufficient area for all key infrastructure required for project development, such as open pits, waste dumps and processing facilities.

The company is running an extensive drilling campaign with RC and diamond rigs on site to support a Bankable Feasibility Study, with an additional RC rig due shortly. Management expects the study to be completed in the third quarter of 2026, aiming to deliver a de-risked, high-grade, shovel-ready open pit development with potential underground extensions, marking a significant step towards production and enhancing the project’s development certainty for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Starts Bankable Feasibility Drilling at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources has commenced Bankable Feasibility Study drilling at its Kookynie Gold Project, 60km south of Leonora in Western Australia, marking a key step toward moving the high‑grade Swiftsure and Tiptoe deposits into development. The program, led by contractor Terra Drilling, includes metallurgical diamond drilling, geotechnical holes, and 9,000m of closely spaced infill reverse‑circulation drilling to upgrade resources from indicated to measured, reduce operational and geotechnical risk, and support open‑pit mine design and environmental approvals. Additional hydrogeological work and planned water bores for dewatering, alongside waste rock and metallurgical testwork with SRK Consulting, are aimed at finalising a significantly de‑risked, toll‑treatable, shovel‑ready open‑pit scenario by the third quarter of 2026, underscoring Carnavale’s push to fast‑track Kookynie into production and enhance its position in the Western Australian gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.12 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Clears Key Native Title Hurdle at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources reported that December quarter activities centred on the Kookynie Gold Project, where it achieved a key milestone by signing a Mining and Heritage Agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation on behalf of the Nyalpa Pirniku native title holders. The agreement, which underpins the pending grant of mining lease M40/362, establishes a framework for collaboration on exploration, development and operations, including cultural heritage protection, compensation, employment and contracting opportunities, and royalty-linked payments for the traditional owners. An ethnographic and archaeological survey under the new heritage protocol found no culturally significant areas within the proposed open pits and Bankable Feasibility Study drilling zones, allowing Carnavale to advance its feasibility work and move the Kookynie project closer to production while reinforcing its social licence to operate.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale secures native title mining and heritage deal for Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources and joint venture partner Western Resources have signed a Mining and Heritage Agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation, representing the Nyalpa Pirniku native title holders, covering the Kookynie Gold Project area in Western Australia. The agreement, which clears the final hurdle for the grant of key mining lease M40/362, establishes a framework for collaboration on exploration, development and operations, embeds an Aboriginal Heritage Protocol to identify and protect cultural values, and outlines compensation, employment, contracting opportunities and royalty-based payments for the Nyalpa Pirniku people. This milestone formalises a long-term partnership intended to ensure culturally responsible project development, strengthens Carnavale’s social licence to operate, and materially de-risks the pathway to permitting and eventual gold production at Kookynie.

Carnavale Resources Addresses ASX Compliance Query

Carnavale Resources Limited recently addressed a query from the ASX regarding a late lodgement of the Appendix 3Y, which details changes in directors’ interests. The delay was attributed to an internal administrative oversight, as the filing was made one business day late. The company assured that it has adequate systems in place to monitor such changes and considers this incident isolated, maintaining that the market was kept informed through other means. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to compliance with ASX listing rules, despite the oversight, and reassures stakeholders of its transparency and operational diligence.

Carnavale Resources Announces Director’s Interest Change

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Andrew Beckwith, in the company’s securities. The company’s issued capital has been consolidated on a 15 for 1 basis following shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting. As a result, the number of ordinary shares held by Mr. Beckwith has been consolidated, and he has acquired 2,000,000 unlisted options.

Carnavale Resources Announces Director’s Share Acquisition

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Andrew Beckwith. The change involves the acquisition of 283,892 ordinary fully paid shares by Penand Pty Ltd, associated with Mr. Beckwith, through an on-market trade. This adjustment brings the total number of shares held to 13,000,000, with the transaction valued at $25,511.39. This update reflects a strategic move in the company’s internal shareholding structure, potentially impacting its governance and shareholder dynamics.