Carnavale Resources Limited (CAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$53.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): N/A
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.67
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -208.82%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 408,065,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 103.56
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.12 ▲(21.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses and negative operating/free cash flow with worsening FY2025 cash burn, despite a strong, debt-free balance sheet. Technical indicators are moderately supportive (price above the 20-day average and positive MACD), but valuation remains constrained by loss-making earnings and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

A zero-debt, equity-backed balance sheet gives durable financial flexibility for an early-stage explorer. It reduces fixed obligations over multi-year drill programs, allowing the company to sustain exploration schedules, absorb timing delays, and pursue farm-ins or deals without near-term refinancing pressure.

Focused regional exploration expertise

Concentrated focus on Western Australian gold and nickel with in-house exploration capabilities (mapping, geochemistry, geophysics, drilling) builds a repeatable discovery process. Over months this regional expertise can mature prospects, improve targeting efficiency, and attract joint-venture or offtake partners.

High gross profit percentage

Near-100% gross margins indicate low direct costs on any monetisable outcomes. When projects are sold or advanced, these high gross economics support scalable value capture before corporate and exploration overheads, improving potential long-term returns on successful discoveries.

Negative Factors

Consistent negative cash flow

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow with worsening FY2025 burn signals structural funding needs. Over the next several months this constrains sustained drilling and target development, increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, and raises execution risk for advancing projects.

Widening losses and weak returns

Materially widening net losses and negative ROE erode shareholder equity and strategic optionality. Continued unprofitability undermines investor confidence, makes future capital raising more dilutive or costly, and limits the company's ability to self-fund exploration or scale operations sustainably.

Very small, volatile revenue base

The company lacks recurring operating revenue and depends on asset monetisation; small, volatile sales and a FY2025 decline create lumpy cash flow. This structural revenue profile increases financing cyclicality, complicates multi-period project funding and long-term planning for consistent exploration programs.

Carnavale Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnavale Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company in Australia. It explores for tin, lithium, cobalt, silver, nickel, gold, copper, and precious metal deposits. The company holds a 100% interest in the Grey Dam nickel sulphide project in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and 80% interest in the Kookynie gold project comprising 2 exploration licenses and 3 prospecting licenses located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. It also holds an option to acquire 80% interest in the Ora Banda South gold project that covers an area of approximately 25 square kilometers located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. Further, it is involved in investing activities. Carnavale Resources Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnavale Resources Limited makes money primarily through the exploration and eventual development of mineral resources, focusing on commodities such as gold and nickel. The company generates revenue by increasing the value of its mineral assets through exploration activities, which can lead to the sale or joint venture of projects with larger mining companies. Additionally, as exploration projects progress to development and production phases, Carnavale may derive income from the sale of extracted minerals. Key revenue streams include partnerships and agreements with other mining firms, which can provide funding, expertise, and share in the production output. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the market demand and price fluctuations of the minerals they explore, as well as its ability to effectively manage exploration and development costs.

Carnavale Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (zero debt and sizable equity) supports financial flexibility, but this is outweighed by very small/volatile revenue, widening net losses, and persistently negative operating and free cash flow with increased FY2025 cash burn.

Income Statement

Revenue remains very small and volatile, with a decline in FY2025 (down 3.5% vs. FY2024) after prior growth off a low base. Profitability is weak: the company has reported net losses every year shown, and FY2025 losses widened materially (net margin roughly -1,994% vs. about -355% in FY2024), indicating costs are running far ahead of the current revenue scale. A positive is consistently strong gross profit percentage (near 100%), but operating losses dominate the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with zero debt across all periods provided and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0. Equity is sizeable relative to assets (FY2025 equity ~$10.2M vs. assets ~$10.4M), supporting financial flexibility. The key weakness is persistent negative returns on equity (FY2025 ROE about -29.7%), reflecting ongoing losses that erode shareholder value despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative: operating cash flow is below zero each year (FY2025 about -$0.39M), and free cash flow is also deeply negative (FY2025 about -$2.52M). Free cash flow deterioration is notable in FY2025 (declining sharply vs. FY2024), pointing to higher cash burn. While reported free cash flow exceeds net loss in magnitude in several years (suggesting non-cash charges are not the main driver), the overall pattern indicates sustained funding needs until operations scale or spending moderates.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	151.84K	222.57K	55.22K	3.35K	10.63K
Gross Profit	151.84K	222.57K	54.60K	2.88K	10.63K
EBITDA	-438.31K	-765.00K	-550.52K	-1.49M	-1.52M
Net Income	-3.03M	-791.14K	-452.61K	-1.41M	-1.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.40M	11.49M	8.98M	9.49M	7.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	777.60K	1.24M	919.18K	3.25M	3.53M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	224.62K	338.19K	379.08K	527.02K	291.66K
Stockholders Equity	10.18M	11.15M	8.60M	8.97M	6.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.52M	-2.62M	-2.33M	-3.25M	-2.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-388.29K	-351.10K	-416.25K	-501.98K	-541.43K
Investing Cash Flow	-2.13M	-2.26M	-1.91M	-2.75M	-1.95M
Financing Cash Flow	2.05M	2.94M	-1.66K	2.97M	4.83M

Carnavale Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GUL	70 Outperform	AU$22.89M	12.08	9.77%	8.14%	―	-16.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CAV	52 Neutral	AU$53.05M	-12.38	-27.97%	―	―	-208.82%
AUZ	47 Neutral	AU$32.81M	-12.31	-4.02%	―	―	74.51%
PXX	44 Neutral	AU$51.78M	-23.75	-5.01%	―	―	88.57%
AMD	41 Neutral	AU$17.08M	-0.87	-296.44%	―	―	51.48%

Carnavale Resources Limited Corporate Events

Carnavale Starts Bankable Feasibility Drilling at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources has commenced Bankable Feasibility Study drilling at its Kookynie Gold Project, 60km south of Leonora in Western Australia, marking a key step toward moving the high‑grade Swiftsure and Tiptoe deposits into development. The program, led by contractor Terra Drilling, includes metallurgical diamond drilling, geotechnical holes, and 9,000m of closely spaced infill reverse‑circulation drilling to upgrade resources from indicated to measured, reduce operational and geotechnical risk, and support open‑pit mine design and environmental approvals. Additional hydrogeological work and planned water bores for dewatering, alongside waste rock and metallurgical testwork with SRK Consulting, are aimed at finalising a significantly de‑risked, toll‑treatable, shovel‑ready open‑pit scenario by the third quarter of 2026, underscoring Carnavale’s push to fast‑track Kookynie into production and enhance its position in the Western Australian gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.12 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Clears Key Native Title Hurdle at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources reported that December quarter activities centred on the Kookynie Gold Project, where it achieved a key milestone by signing a Mining and Heritage Agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation on behalf of the Nyalpa Pirniku native title holders. The agreement, which underpins the pending grant of mining lease M40/362, establishes a framework for collaboration on exploration, development and operations, including cultural heritage protection, compensation, employment and contracting opportunities, and royalty-linked payments for the traditional owners. An ethnographic and archaeological survey under the new heritage protocol found no culturally significant areas within the proposed open pits and Bankable Feasibility Study drilling zones, allowing Carnavale to advance its feasibility work and move the Kookynie project closer to production while reinforcing its social licence to operate.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale secures native title mining and heritage deal for Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources and joint venture partner Western Resources have signed a Mining and Heritage Agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation, representing the Nyalpa Pirniku native title holders, covering the Kookynie Gold Project area in Western Australia. The agreement, which clears the final hurdle for the grant of key mining lease M40/362, establishes a framework for collaboration on exploration, development and operations, embeds an Aboriginal Heritage Protocol to identify and protect cultural values, and outlines compensation, employment, contracting opportunities and royalty-based payments for the Nyalpa Pirniku people. This milestone formalises a long-term partnership intended to ensure culturally responsible project development, strengthens Carnavale’s social licence to operate, and materially de-risks the pathway to permitting and eventual gold production at Kookynie.

Carnavale Resources Addresses ASX Compliance Query

Carnavale Resources Limited recently addressed a query from the ASX regarding a late lodgement of the Appendix 3Y, which details changes in directors’ interests. The delay was attributed to an internal administrative oversight, as the filing was made one business day late. The company assured that it has adequate systems in place to monitor such changes and considers this incident isolated, maintaining that the market was kept informed through other means. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to compliance with ASX listing rules, despite the oversight, and reassures stakeholders of its transparency and operational diligence.

Carnavale Resources Announces Director’s Interest Change

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Andrew Beckwith, in the company’s securities. The company’s issued capital has been consolidated on a 15 for 1 basis following shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting. As a result, the number of ordinary shares held by Mr. Beckwith has been consolidated, and he has acquired 2,000,000 unlisted options.

Carnavale Resources Announces Director’s Share Acquisition

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Andrew Beckwith. The change involves the acquisition of 283,892 ordinary fully paid shares by Penand Pty Ltd, associated with Mr. Beckwith, through an on-market trade. This adjustment brings the total number of shares held to 13,000,000, with the transaction valued at $25,511.39. This update reflects a strategic move in the company’s internal shareholding structure, potentially impacting its governance and shareholder dynamics.

Carnavale Resources Issues New Unquoted Equity Securities

Carnavale Resources Limited announced the issuance of 300,000 unquoted equity securities in the form of options, exercisable at $0.09 and expiring on November 26, 2028. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial instruments, potentially impacting its market operations and offering stakeholders new investment opportunities.

Carnavale Resources Issues Unquoted Equity Securities

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 5,500,000 options exercisable at $0.09 and expiring on 26 November 2028, as well as 1,666,666 performance rights. These securities are part of a previously announced transaction and are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move could potentially impact the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests by expanding its equity base.

Carnavale Resources Issues 5 Million Unquoted Equity Securities

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced the issuance of 5,000,000 unquoted equity securities in the form of options exercisable at $0.09, set to expire on November 26, 2028. This issuance is part of a transaction previously announced to the market and is not intended to be quoted on the ASX, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests by expanding its equity base.

Carnavale Resources Boosts Kookynie Gold Project Value

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced an increase in the resource estimate at its Kookynie Gold Project, which is expected to enhance the project’s value significantly. This development positions the company favorably within the mining industry, potentially leading to increased stakeholder interest and investment opportunities.

Carnavale Resources Announces AGM Results and Share Consolidation

Carnavale Resources Limited announced that all resolutions at its annual general meeting were passed, including special resolutions, indicating strong shareholder support. The company is proceeding with a share capital consolidation on a 1 for 15 basis, affecting trading and shareholding structures, which is expected to streamline its operations and potentially enhance its market positioning.

Carnavale Resources Announces Security Consolidation

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a security consolidation for its ordinary fully paid shares and options expiring on October 31, 2028. This reorganization, which has received security holder approval, aims to streamline the company’s capital structure and is set to commence trading on a deferred settlement basis from December 1, 2025.

Carnavale Resources Announces Director’s Increased Shareholding

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically related to Ron Gajewski. The change involves the acquisition of additional ordinary fully paid shares by Mr. Gajewski through entities associated with him, including Vienna Holdings Pty Ltd and Redtown Enterprises Pty Ltd. This acquisition was made pursuant to an Entitlement Offer and sub-underwriting arrangements, resulting in a significant increase in Mr. Gajewski’s shareholding. This development may impact the company’s governance and shareholder dynamics, reflecting confidence in the company’s future prospects.

Carnavale Resources Issues 30 Million Unquoted Options

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced the issuance of 30,000,000 unquoted equity securities in the form of options, which are exercisable at $0.006 and set to expire on October 31, 2028. This issuance is part of previously announced transactions and is not intended to be quoted on the ASX, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

Carnavale Resources Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX

Carnavale Resources Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 1,168,634,261 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of previously announced transactions and is expected to impact the company’s operations by potentially increasing its market presence and providing additional capital for its exploration activities.