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Austal Limited (AU:ASB)
ASX:ASB
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Austal (ASB) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ASB

Austal

(Sydney:ASB)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.50
â–²(3.73% Upside)
Austal's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow generation. However, technical analysis indicates potential short-term bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio suggests limited valuation appeal. The absence of earnings call insights and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Austal (ASB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Austal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAustal Limited engages in the design, manufacture, and support of vessels for commercial and defense customers worldwide. It operates in four segments: USA Shipbuilding, USA Support, Australasia Shipbuilding, and Australasia Support. The company designs, constructs, and supports passenger ferries, vehicle passenger ferries, and offshore and windfarm vessels; naval and other defense vessels; and patrol boats for government law enforcement and border protection agencies. It also develops and integrates advanced vessel control and information management systems, including MARINELINK, an integrated monitoring and control system; and motion control systems and interceptors. In addition, the company provides life capability management and vessel support services, such as crew training and instruction, vessel servicing, repair and maintenance, integrated logistics support, vessel sustainment, and information management systems support to naval, government, and commercial operators; and refit services and manages annual dockings. Austal Limited was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Henderson, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAustal generates revenue primarily through the construction and sale of naval vessels, including patrol boats, frigates, and other military ships, as well as commercial ships such as ferries and offshore support vessels. The company secures contracts through competitive bidding processes with government and defense agencies, which often involve significant multi-year projects. Key revenue streams include shipbuilding contracts, repair and maintenance services for existing vessels, and ongoing support contracts that provide long-term revenue stability. Additionally, strategic partnerships with defense organizations and collaboration on joint ventures enhance its market position and contribute to its financial performance.

Austal Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Austal demonstrates strong financial performance with notable revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow generation is robust, supporting future growth initiatives. While operational efficiency could be enhanced, the company is well-positioned in the Aerospace & Defense industry.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Austal's income statement shows a strong revenue growth rate of 15.62% in the latest year, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin improved to 12.59%, and the net profit margin increased to 4.92%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin remains relatively low at 0.69%, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is moderate at 6.86%, showing decent profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio of 44.42% suggests a stable capital structure, though there is potential to enhance asset utilization.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 83.89%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.55 indicates efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52 further underscores the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.82B1.82B1.47B1.59B1.43B1.57B
Gross Profit229.92M229.60M172.51M99.10M230.28M222.56M
EBITDA174.29M199.76M127.64M56.76M153.96M160.69M
Net Income89.73M89.73M14.88M-13.77M79.56M81.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.95B2.95B2.09B1.93B1.69B1.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments583.93M583.93M173.51M179.20M240.11M346.90M
Total Debt266.99M266.99M281.06M240.46M234.12M204.60M
Total Liabilities1.64B1.64B1.09B885.12M675.97M615.78M
Stockholders Equity1.31B1.31B1.00B948.82M924.28M774.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow211.40M210.68M-82.96M-41.91M-127.42M30.18M
Operating Cash Flow406.32M406.32M-13.05M86.71M37.50M107.33M
Investing Cash Flow-149.23M-149.23M-12.70M-102.78M-127.51M-85.05M
Financing Cash Flow153.76M153.76M19.52M-38.06M-38.33M-46.31M

Austal Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.23
Price Trends
50DMA
7.48
Negative
100DMA
6.88
Positive
200DMA
5.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
48.54
Neutral
STOCH
63.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ASB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.44, below the 50-day MA of 7.48, and above the 200-day MA of 5.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ASB.

Austal Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
―AU$959.06M14.2410.32%9.92%16.61%3.07%
―AU$1.71B22.599.26%1.54%15.14%-7.23%
―$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
―AU$189.77M58.565.66%0.70%-14.88%-56.89%
―$2.95B29.647.54%―24.13%474.03%
―AU$1.09B32.03-28.75%―-72.88%―
―AU$32.23M―-42.31%―-34.48%-26000.00%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ASB
Austal
7.23
3.96
121.10%
AU:EOS
Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited
5.64
4.17
283.67%
AU:OEC
Orbital Corporation Limited
0.19
0.10
115.91%
AU:VEE
Veem Ltd
1.42
-0.08
-5.33%
AU:MGH
MAAS Group Holdings Ltd.
4.56
-0.09
-1.94%
AU:IPH
IPH Ltd.
3.68
-1.36
-26.98%

Austal Corporate Events

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Austal Limited
Oct 7, 2025

Austal Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of October 3, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Austal’s shareholder structure and influence in the market, potentially affecting the company’s strategic decisions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Secures $100M Loan to Boost US Shipbuilding Projects
Oct 7, 2025

Austal Limited has secured a US$100 million loan from Export Finance Australia to support the construction of vessels for the US Navy and US Coast Guard at its Mobile, Alabama Shipyard. This funding will aid in the development of Austal’s Final Assembly 2 project, which includes building up to eleven US Coast Guard Offshore Patrol Cutters and up to seven US Navy Ocean Surveillance vessels. The loan signifies a major milestone for Austal, enhancing its $13.1 billion order book and supporting shared defense objectives between the Australian and US Governments. The expansion reflects the strength of Australian businesses in securing international contracts and investing in defense capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Prepares for Annual General Meeting with Key Resolutions on Agenda
Oct 3, 2025

Austal Limited has announced the details for its upcoming Annual General Meeting, including instructions for lodging proxy forms and voting procedures. The meeting will address several resolutions, including the election of directors and approval of share rights, which could impact the company’s governance and executive compensation structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Seeks Shareholder Approval to Refresh Placement Capacity
Oct 3, 2025

Austal Limited has issued an addendum to its Notice of Meeting for the 2025 Annual General Meeting, introducing a new Resolution 11. This resolution seeks shareholder approval to refresh the company’s 15% placement capacity, which is a common practice among ASX-listed companies to maintain flexibility for future capital requirements and strategic opportunities. The addendum includes a replacement proxy form to ensure shareholders can vote on this additional resolution.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Issues New Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Oct 1, 2025

Austal Limited has announced the issuance of 870,177 ordinary fully paid securities, which are to be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, potentially enhancing employee engagement and aligning their interests with shareholders, thereby strengthening Austal’s operational and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Resolves Contract Dispute with US Navy over T-ATS Program
Oct 1, 2025

Austal Limited has reached an agreement with the United States Navy to resolve its Request for Equitable Adjustment concerning the Towing, Salvage, and Rescue Ship (T-ATS) program. Initially valued at $145 million for two vessels, the contract expanded to five vessels with a total value of $380 million. Due to challenges such as late technical data and design discrepancies, the contract was deemed onerous. The resolution results in the permanent halt of construction on two vessels, with the contract now limited to three ships. This agreement aligns with previous financial provisions and is expected to have no further impact on Austal’s revenue or earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces Details for 2025 Annual General Meeting
Sep 26, 2025

Austal Limited has announced the details for their upcoming Annual General Meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2025. The meeting will be held physically at the Fremantle Sailing Club in Western Australia, with an option to view the webcast online. Shareholders are encouraged to lodge their proxy forms by October 26, 2025, to participate in the voting process on various resolutions, including the election of directors and approval of share rights. This meeting is crucial for stakeholders as it involves decisions on key management personnel’s remuneration and other strategic resolutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces In-Person 2025 AGM with Live Webcast
Sep 26, 2025

Austal Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) to be held in person at the Fremantle Sailing Club, Western Australia, on October 28, 2025. The meeting will be webcast live, allowing securityholders to listen and view materials, although voting and participation will be restricted to those attending physically. This approach underscores Austal’s commitment to engaging with its stakeholders directly, while also adapting to modern digital conveniences.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces Director Change
Sep 19, 2025

Austal Limited announced the cessation of John Rothwell as a director, effective September 1, 2025. This change in the board may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, given Rothwell’s significant role and interests in the company, including a substantial holding of 18,601,692 securities through Austro Pty Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holding
Sep 16, 2025

Austal Limited has announced a change in its substantial holding status, with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries ceasing to be substantial holders as of September 12, 2025. This change may impact Austal’s shareholder dynamics and influence in the market, as State Street Corporation’s involvement in voting securities has altered, potentially affecting the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holding
Sep 9, 2025

Austal Limited has announced a change in substantial holding, indicating that a significant shareholder has ceased to hold a substantial interest in the company. This change could impact the company’s shareholder structure and voting dynamics, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Secures $314 Million Contract with U.S. Coast Guard for Offshore Patrol Cutters
Sep 4, 2025

Austal Limited has secured a US$314 million contract with the United States Coast Guard for the Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC) program, allowing Austal USA to order materials for three additional cutters. This contract, part of a larger US$3.3 billion agreement, underscores the strong partnership between Austal and the Coast Guard, enhancing Austal’s industry positioning. The OPCs will play a critical role in U.S. national security by conducting missions such as law enforcement and search and rescue, with capabilities to operate independently or as part of task groups, supporting both national and Arctic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Austal Limited
Sep 1, 2025

State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in Austal Limited as of August 28, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Austal’s shareholder dynamics and influence in the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Reports Strong Growth and Strategic Wins
Aug 29, 2025

Austal Limited is a global shipbuilding company known for its innovative designs and construction of both commercial and defense vessels, operating primarily in Australia, the United States, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In its latest annual report for 2025, Austal Limited highlighted significant achievements, including a 101% increase in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to $113.4 million and a robust order book valued at $13.1 billion. The company secured several new contracts, including a Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the Commonwealth of Australia, ensuring a continuous naval shipbuilding program. Austal’s financial performance was bolstered by a 24% increase in total revenue to $1.823 billion and a strong cash balance of $583.9 million, despite substantial capital investments. Looking forward, Austal is well-positioned for sustainable growth, with plans to expand its operational footprint and continue its strategic focus on both defense and commercial shipbuilding sectors.

Austal Limited’s 2025 ESG Report: A Commitment to Sustainable Maritime Innovation
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited’s 2025 ESG Report highlights the company’s commitment to sustainability, detailing its strategic priorities and initiatives in environmental, social, and governance areas. The report underscores Austal’s efforts in responding to climate change, enhancing autonomous capabilities, and engaging stakeholders, which are expected to strengthen its industry position and impact its operations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited has released its Corporate Governance Statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, highlighting its commitment to best practices in corporate governance, ethical standards, and risk management. The statement aligns with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s Principles and Recommendations, detailing the company’s compliance with these guidelines. Austal’s governance framework includes oversight by the Board and its subcommittees, with a focus on leadership, strategic objectives, and risk management. The company also addresses its US subsidiary’s management under a Special Security Agreement with the US Department of Defense, ensuring compliance with foreign ownership regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, which is available on their website. The statement confirms that Austal has adhered to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s recommendations, detailing the roles and responsibilities of the board and management, and ensuring accountability and transparency in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Reports Significant Profit Surge in FY2025
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited reported a substantial increase in its financial performance for the year ending June 30, 2025, with revenue rising by 24% to $1.82 billion and net profit surging by 503% to $89.7 million. Despite the impressive profit growth, the company did not declare any dividends for the fiscal year, indicating a strategic decision to potentially reinvest profits into future growth or operational improvements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holder Status
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited has announced a change in its substantial holder status, as State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of August 26, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Austal’s shareholder dynamics and potentially influence its market positioning, as State Street Corporation’s involvement in voting securities has been altered.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Secures Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with Australian Government
Aug 28, 2025

Austal Limited has signed a Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the Commonwealth of Australia, appointing its subsidiary, Austal Defence Australia, as the strategic shipbuilder for Tier 2 surface combatants. This agreement, which includes projects for the Australian Army, reinforces Austal’s role in enhancing Australia’s naval shipbuilding capabilities and industrial sovereignty. The agreement outlines a 15-year framework for Austal Defence Australia to design, construct, and deliver naval programs, emphasizing local supply chain development and strategic defense readiness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited to Discuss FY2025 Results in Upcoming Conference Call
Aug 26, 2025

Austal Limited announced a conference call scheduled for 29 August 2025 to discuss its FY2025 financial results. The call, led by CEO Paddy Gregg and CFO Christian Johnstone, will provide insights into the company’s performance and allow for a Q&A session with analysts and investors. This announcement underscores Austal’s ongoing commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, reflecting its significant role in the global shipbuilding industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Appoints Susan Murphy AO as Non-Executive Director
Aug 20, 2025

Austal Limited has announced the appointment of Susan Murphy AO as a Non-Executive Director, effective from September 2025. With her extensive experience in engineering, infrastructure, and corporate governance, Murphy’s addition to the board is expected to enhance Austal’s strategic development and global business growth. Her appointment marks the completion of a significant board refresh over the past two years, positioning Austal for continued success in the global shipbuilding industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Australasia Wins Contract for New Catamaran
Aug 18, 2025

Austal Australasia has secured a contract valued between A$14-16 million to build a 36-metre catamaran for Cruise Whitsundays, a part of Journey Beyond, Australia’s leading experiential tourism group. The vessel, designed by Incat Crowther and to be constructed by Austal Vietnam, is scheduled for delivery in December 2026. This contract underscores Austal’s leadership in the global commercial ferry market and highlights its shipyards’ capabilities. The catamaran will serve as a key transport link in the Whitsundays, enhancing passenger and crew experiences.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$5.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal USA Secures Contract for Second U.S. Coast Guard Offshore Patrol Cutter
Aug 6, 2025

Austal USA has received a contract option from the United States Coast Guard to construct the second Heritage-class Offshore Patrol Cutter (OPC) and acquire materials for a third, with the contract potentially reaching a value of $3.3 billion. The construction of the second OPC, named Icarus, has begun in Mobile, Alabama, marking a significant step in the program that aims to enhance the U.S. Coast Guard’s offshore capabilities with advanced vessels designed for various missions, including law enforcement and search and rescue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$5.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Limited Upgrades FY2025 EBIT Guidance Amid Strong Performance
Aug 4, 2025

Austal Limited has upgraded its FY2025 EBIT guidance to not less than A$100 million, up from the previous guidance of A$80 million. This revision is driven by strong business performance and the finalization of accounting treatment for its submarine modules manufacturing facility contract with General Dynamics Electric Boat. The updated guidance is still subject to the completion of the annual audit.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$5.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Austal Secures Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with Australian Government
Aug 4, 2025

Austal Limited has finalized a Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the Commonwealth of Australia, appointing its subsidiary, Austal Defence Shipbuilding Australia, as the strategic shipbuilder for Tier 2 surface combatants in Western Australia. This agreement positions Austal as a key player in Australia’s defense procurement strategy, aiming to enhance sovereign shipbuilding capabilities and ensure resilience in the naval ship supply chain. The agreement includes the construction of Landing Craft Medium and Heavy programs, expected to generate significant revenue and contribute to the development of a robust local supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ASB) stock is a Hold with a A$5.18 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Austal stock, see the AU:ASB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 25, 2025