Alumis Inc. (ALMS)
NASDAQ:ALMS
US Market

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
55 Followers

Top Page

AL

Alumis Inc.

(NASDAQ:ALMS)

43Neutral
Alumis Inc. faces significant financial hurdles with zero revenue and growing losses, impacting its overall stock score negatively. However, the positive outlook from the merger with ACELYRIN, Inc. offers a potential turnaround opportunity. Technical indicators suggest mixed signals with some downward pressure, while the valuation remains challenging due to ongoing losses typical for its industry.
Positive Factors
Financial Position
The cash infusion from the deal extends Alumis Inc.'s operational cash runway through the planned topline data readout of the ongoing Phase 3 ONWARD program of ESK-001 in psoriasis.
Partnerships and Collaborations
The collaboration and license agreement with Kaken Pharmaceutical for the development and commercialization of ESK-001 in Japan is a significant boost for Alumis Inc.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
Financial results—lowering price target based on impact of increased projected operating expenses on valuation.
Regulatory and Development Risks
Risks include inability to advance ESK-001 into pivotal trials in a timely fashion, failure of ESK-001 to show compelling efficacy, and delays in completing regulatory submissions in key territories.

Alumis Inc. (ALMS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Alumis Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlumis Inc. (ALMS) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Leveraging cutting-edge scientific research, Alumis aims to address unmet medical needs by advancing its portfolio of innovative treatments. The company operates primarily in the biotechnology and pharmaceuticals sectors, dedicated to improving patient outcomes through targeted therapeutic solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlumis Inc. generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its pharmaceutical products. The company invests in research and development to create novel therapies, which it then seeks to bring to market through clinical trials and regulatory approval processes. Revenue streams are primarily derived from product sales, licensing agreements, and strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve collaborative research and shared development costs, as well as revenue-sharing arrangements from the commercialization of co-developed products. Additionally, Alumis might engage in milestone payments and royalties from licensing its proprietary technologies to third parties, contributing to its overall earnings.

Alumis Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alumis Inc. faces significant financial challenges with zero revenue, increasing losses, and negative cash flows, despite a relatively strong balance sheet with solid equity. The increasing debt levels and cash consumption highlight major concerns within its operations.
Income Statement
15
Very Negative
Alumis Inc. has consistently reported zero revenue over the last three years, reflecting a lack of commercialized products or services. The company is experiencing increasing net losses, with a significant drop in profitability as indicated by growing negative EBIT and EBITDA. The consistent negative net income highlights ongoing financial challenges within its operations.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows a positive stockholders' equity, indicating some financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has increased over the years, suggesting rising leverage. The equity ratio is relatively strong, reflecting a solid capital structure, but the increase in liabilities could pose potential risks.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Alumis Inc. shows negative free cash flow over the periods, with increasing operating cash outflows, indicating substantial cash consumption in operations. Despite positive financing cash flow, likely from equity financing, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, signifying that the company is struggling to generate positive cash flow from operations.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022
Income StatementTotal Revenue
0.000.000.00
Gross Profit
0.00-1.28M-250.00K
EBIT
-300.75M-158.17M-113.85M
EBITDA
-297.60M-156.89M-113.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-294.23M-154.99M-111.93M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
288.26M48.95M93.07M
Total Assets
340.99M89.61M108.17M
Total Debt
30.72M32.58M1.78M
Net Debt
-138.80M-13.42M-24.04M
Total Liabilities
80.89M53.50M17.94M
Stockholders Equity
260.10M36.11M90.23M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-256.81M-134.47M-110.13M
Operating Cash Flow
-255.08M-129.97M-107.72M
Investing Cash Flow
-113.79M60.47M-68.75M
Financing Cash Flow
492.37M89.68M101.63M

Alumis Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (47)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$62.69B14.9615.95%0.15%8.27%10.35%
75
Outperform
$133.70B280.392.28%2.89%6.16%-91.54%
75
Outperform
$158.15B38.9467.55%3.10%18.64%-39.39%
64
Neutral
$122.02B-3.15%11.64%-114.72%
48
Neutral
$9.69B-28.77%-52.75%25.00%
47
Neutral
$2.36B-3.00-21.73%3.58%3.97%-28.71%
43
Neutral
$546.79M-198.66%-82.41%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ALMS
Alumis Inc.
10.05
-2.49
-19.86%
AMGN
Amgen
294.39
33.15
12.69%
GILD
Gilead Sciences
107.25
40.34
60.29%
REGN
Regeneron
573.45
-363.83
-38.82%
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
474.62
70.40
17.42%
MRNA
Moderna
25.11
-79.98
-76.11%

Alumis Inc. Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Alumis Inc. Announces Merger with ACELYRIN, Inc.
Positive
Mar 4, 2025

On March 4, 2025, Alumis Inc. and ACELYRIN, Inc. announced their commitment to merge in an all-stock transaction, forming a leading clinical-stage biopharma company focused on immune-mediated diseases. The merger is expected to enhance the combined company’s financial position, support a diverse pipeline, and drive significant value for stockholders. The transaction, anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, will provide increased resources for developing life-changing medicines and is projected to maximize value for shareholders and patients through a strengthened late-stage portfolio and financial flexibility.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alumis Inc. Approves New Severance and Control Plan
Neutral
Feb 21, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Alumis Inc. approved a Severance and Change in Control Plan to provide severance benefits and Change in Control benefits to eligible employees upon qualifying termination of employment. The plan details cash payments, COBRA premium payments, and potential acceleration of equity awards for eligible employees both during and outside Change in Control periods, depending on their designation tier.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alumis Inc. Announces Merger with ACELYRIN, Inc.
Positive
Feb 6, 2025

On February 6, 2025, Alumis Inc. announced a merger agreement with ACELYRIN, Inc., creating a combined company dedicated to developing transformative therapies for immune-mediated diseases. The all-stock transaction, subject to stockholder approval, will see Alumis and ACELYRIN stockholders owning approximately 55% and 45% of the combined entity, respectively. The merger is expected to expand Alumis’ late-stage pipeline, including ACELYRIN’s lonigutamab, and provide financial stability with a pro forma cash position of $737 million. The combined company will operate under the Alumis name, led by the current Alumis executive team, and aims to leverage its R&D success and proprietary data platform to advance its differentiated portfolio. The transaction is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, with stockholders representing substantial shares of both companies already in support.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.