Autodesk (ADSK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $57.50B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.49
• Revenue Growth: 12.46%
• EPS Growth: 22.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,100
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Software
• EPS (TTM): 5.13
• Shares Outstanding: 215,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,251,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,648,657
• PEG Ratio: 2.34
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.81
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 70.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 80.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $350.05
• Price Target Upside: 30.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Autodesk's strong financial performance and strategic corporate governance moves are notable strengths. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the high valuation poses risks. Macroeconomic challenges and new business growth issues also weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

ADSK reported strong Q4 results with revenue and EPS above consensus estimates, indicating strong business momentum.

Profitability

Management positively surprised on profitability by guiding higher operating margins than consensus estimates.

Restructuring

Autodesk announced a strategic restructuring plan that includes workforce reduction and reallocation of resources to accelerate strategic priorities in cloud, platform, and AI.

Negative Factors

Growth

A tough macro backdrop remains an impediment to underlying near-term growth.

Guidance

The new CFO provided a conservative growth guidance of 8%-9% for FY26, which reflects caution in expectations.

Macro Environment

Ongoing macro uncertainty currently overshadows company-specific drivers, making this a transition year.

Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Autodesk, Inc. designs and develops software for the architecture, engineering, manufacturing, construction, and media and entertainment industries. Moreover, its digital media and entertainment solutions consists of tools for digital sculpting, animation, effects, modeling, rendering, and compositing for design visualization, visual effects, and games production.

How the Company Makes Money

Autodesk primarily makes money through the sale of software subscriptions and licenses. The company has transitioned from a traditional perpetual license model to a subscription-based business model, which provides recurring revenue streams. Customers pay for monthly, annual, or multi-year subscriptions to access Autodesk's suite of software products. Additionally, Autodesk generates revenue from cloud-based services, consulting, and support services. The company also benefits from partnerships with educational institutions, which help promote its software among future professionals. Key revenue streams include the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment, the Manufacturing segment, and the Media and Entertainment segment. Autodesk's strategic acquisitions and investments in emerging technologies further enhance its earnings potential.

Autodesk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Autodesk exhibits strong financial health with high profitability, effective cost management, and robust cash flow generation. The company maintains a balance between growth and stability, though it could benefit from improving its equity position.

Income Statement

Autodesk shows strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 90.6% and a net profit margin of 18.1% in the latest annual report. The revenue growth rate is 12.7%, indicating a positive growth trajectory. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 22.1% and 25.0% respectively, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is high at 42.4%, showcasing strong shareholder returns. However, the equity ratio is relatively low at 24.2%, which may suggest higher reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 22.2%, demonstrating strong operational cash flow conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.45, indicating effective cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.41, reflecting strong cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.13B	5.44B
	Gross Profit
5.55B	4.98B
	EBIT
1.35B	1.13B
	EBITDA
1.53B	1.22B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.11B	906.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.89B	2.25B
	Total Assets
10.83B	9.91B
	Total Debt
2.56B	2.63B
	Net Debt
960.00M	734.00M
	Total Liabilities
8.21B	8.06B
	Stockholders Equity
2.62B	1.85B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.57B	1.28B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.61B	1.31B
	Investing Cash Flow
-903.00M	-502.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-987.00M	-852.00M

Autodesk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 267.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 267.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 292.83, below the 50-day MA of 295.36, and below the 200-day MA of 270.22, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.37 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADSK.

Autodesk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADBE	78 Outperform	$193.98B	35.94	39.42%	―	11.02%	4.96%
ADSK	69 Neutral	$57.50B	52.15	42.43%	―	12.46%	22.28%
CDNS	66 Neutral	$66.26B	62.61	22.58%	―	13.48%	0.66%
ANSS	66 Neutral	$29.21B	49.73	9.46%	―	12.11%	14.35%
SNPS	63 Neutral	$68.88B	32.94	22.68%	―	-1.19%	48.33%
PTC	63 Neutral	$19.69B	49.53	12.14%	―	6.05%	63.78%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$22.39B	11.53	-18.05%	2.31%	5.00%	-25.89%

Autodesk Corporate Events

Autodesk Announces Major Workforce Restructuring Plan

On February 27, 2025, Autodesk announced a global restructuring plan, resulting in a 9% workforce reduction, impacting approximately 1,350 employees. This move is part of Autodesk’s strategy to optimize its go-to-market organization and reallocate resources towards strategic priorities like cloud and AI investments. The restructuring is expected to incur pre-tax charges between $135 million and $150 million, with completion anticipated by the end of fiscal 2026. Additionally, Autodesk reported a 12% revenue growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reaching $1.64 billion, and has initiated the optimization phase of its sales and marketing plan to enhance shareholder value.

Autodesk Announces Board Appointment and Stockholder Meeting

On December 18, 2024, Autodesk announced the appointment of John T. Cahill to its Board of Directors, with his placement on the Audit Committee effective January 18, 2025. The company also scheduled its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders for June 18, 2025, adjusting deadlines for stockholder nominations and proposals to align with this schedule.

Autodesk Appoints New Independent Directors for Growth

Autodesk has appointed John Cahill and Ram Krishnan as new independent directors, enhancing the board’s expertise in leadership and technology. This move is part of Autodesk’s strategy to strengthen its corporate governance and support its growth and shareholder value initiatives, as the company continues to transition its business model and optimize its go-to-market strategy.