Autodesk (ADSK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.13B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 51.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 12.35%
• EPS Growth: 22.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,300
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 5.12
• Shares Outstanding: 213,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,807,748
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,067,572
• PEG Ratio: 2.31
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.37
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 20.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $335.42
• Price Target Upside: 27.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20

Autodesk's stock shows strong financial performance and positive future guidance, but technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish momentum. The high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation, and recent macroeconomic uncertainties could pose risks. However, strategic corporate governance improvements provide a positive long-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Growth and Profitability

Autodesk's transition to a more direct model and improving macro trends are expected to accelerate growth and profitability in the long term.

Long-term Fundamentals

ADSK is a solid 'rule of 40' company with strong long-term fundamentals.

Proxy Battle Opportunity

Investors view Starboard proxy battle providing an opportunity to improve communication and confidence in execution to margin targets.

Negative Factors

Architecture Demand Outlook

ABI data points to a softening outlook for architecture demand.

Tariff Uncertainty

Industrial/construction names are seen as more exposed to current tariff uncertainty.

Trade War Risks

ADSK has over 50% international revenue exposure, which suggests higher risk in a hypothetical trade war escalation scenario.

Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Autodesk primarily makes money through the sale of software subscriptions and licenses. The company has transitioned from a traditional perpetual license model to a subscription-based business model, which provides recurring revenue streams. Customers pay for monthly, annual, or multi-year subscriptions to access Autodesk's suite of software products. Additionally, Autodesk generates revenue from cloud-based services, consulting, and support services. The company also benefits from partnerships with educational institutions, which help promote its software among future professionals. Key revenue streams include the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment, the Manufacturing segment, and the Media and Entertainment segment. Autodesk's strategic acquisitions and investments in emerging technologies further enhance its earnings potential.

Autodesk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Autodesk exhibits strong financial health with high profitability and effective cash flow generation. The company maintains a good balance between growth and stability, though it could benefit from improving its equity position.

Income Statement

Autodesk shows strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 90.6% and a net profit margin of 18.1% in the latest annual report. The revenue growth rate is 12.7%, indicating a positive growth trajectory. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid at 22.1% and 25.0% respectively, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable, with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is high at 42.4%, showcasing strong shareholder returns. However, the equity ratio is relatively low at 24.2%, which may suggest higher reliance on liabilities.

Cash Flow

Cash flow generation is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 22.2%, demonstrating strong operational cash flow conversion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.45, indicating effective cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.41, reflecting strong cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.13B	5.44B	5.00B	4.39B	3.79B
	Gross Profit
5.55B	4.98B	4.53B	3.97B	3.45B
	EBIT
1.35B	1.13B	989.00M	617.60M	629.10M
	EBITDA
1.53B	1.22B	1.10B	765.70M	720.80M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.11B	906.00M	823.00M	497.00M	1.21B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.89B	2.25B	2.07B	1.76B	1.86B
	Total Assets
10.83B	9.91B	9.44B	8.61B	7.28B
	Total Debt
2.56B	2.63B	2.67B	3.06B	2.10B
	Net Debt
960.00M	734.00M	719.00M	1.53B	332.40M
	Total Liabilities
8.21B	8.06B	8.29B	7.76B	6.31B
	Stockholders Equity
2.62B	1.85B	1.15B	849.10M	965.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.57B	1.28B	2.02B	1.46B	1.34B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.61B	1.31B	2.07B	1.53B	1.44B
	Investing Cash Flow
-903.00M	-502.00M	-143.00M	-1.59B	-403.90M
	Financing Cash Flow
-987.00M	-852.00M	-1.49B	-168.60M	-1.05B

Autodesk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 263.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 263.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 261.16, below the 50-day MA of 275.86, and below the 200-day MA of 275.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADSK.

Autodesk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BSY	78 Outperform	$12.78B	58.23	24.39%	0.65%	10.15%	-28.62%
MANH	72 Outperform	$8.89B	40.95	75.64%	―	12.23%	24.66%
ADSK	70 Outperform	$56.13B	51.43	49.69%	―	12.35%	22.28%
CDNS	66 Neutral	$72.60B	68.67	26.13%	―	13.48%	0.66%
ANSS	66 Neutral	$27.15B	47.33	10.03%	―	12.11%	14.35%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$20.31B	10.03	-14.49%	2.79%	5.15%	-23.76%

Autodesk Corporate Events

Autodesk’s Betsy Rafael to Leave Board in 2025

On April 1, 2025, Elizabeth ‘Betsy’ Rafael announced her decision not to seek re-election to Autodesk’s Board of Directors at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, marking the end of her advisory role on April 30, 2025. Rafael, who joined the Board in 2013 and served as Interim CFO in 2024, was praised for her leadership during a period of significant growth, positioning Autodesk for future success.

Autodesk Announces Major Workforce Restructuring Plan

On February 27, 2025, Autodesk announced a global restructuring plan, resulting in a 9% workforce reduction, impacting approximately 1,350 employees. This move is part of Autodesk’s strategy to optimize its go-to-market organization and reallocate resources towards strategic priorities like cloud and AI investments. The restructuring is expected to incur pre-tax charges between $135 million and $150 million, with completion anticipated by the end of fiscal 2026. Additionally, Autodesk reported a 12% revenue growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, reaching $1.64 billion, and has initiated the optimization phase of its sales and marketing plan to enhance shareholder value.

Autodesk Announces Board Appointment and Stockholder Meeting

On December 18, 2024, Autodesk announced the appointment of John T. Cahill to its Board of Directors, with his placement on the Audit Committee effective January 18, 2025. The company also scheduled its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders for June 18, 2025, adjusting deadlines for stockholder nominations and proposals to align with this schedule.