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Ayr Wellness Inc. (TSE:AYR.A)
:AYR.A
See the Price Targets and Ratings of:
AYR.A Financial Forecast
Detailed List of Analyst Forecasts
Detailed List of Analyst Forecasts
Ventum Financial
C$0.4
Hold
150.00%
Upside
Downgraded
03/07/25
Ventum Capital Markets Downgrades Ayr Wellness (ARA/A:CN) (AYRWF) to Neutral, 'Q4/24 Results Disappoint as Leverage Looms Large'The analyst comments "EVENT: Ayr Wellness Inc. (“Ayr†or “the Companyâ€) reported Q4/24 results that again missed estimates. Sales were roughly flat QoQ, in line with guidance and expectations. However, adj gross margins and adj. EBITDA fell well below our estimates (and management's guidance for flat EBITDA QoQ) as costs continued to climb while pricing continued to fall. Management noted a few one-time items in the quarter, including negative impacts from new Florida seed-to-sale tracking, inventory liquidation in Massachusetts, and ongoing start-up costs associated with assets under development (among other items). EBITDA margins are expected to somewhat recover in Q1/25 as Ayr moves past these events. However, management's Q1/25 guidance was still below well expectations, signalling ongoing softness into 2025. Management indicated Q1/25 sales are expected to decline by mid-single digits QoQ, suggesting sales below the prior consensus of $114.8M and our prior estimate of $113.2M. With reduced earnings expectations for 2025, we now believe that Ayr needs to continue accruing 280E taxes for the year to manage its liquidity. We expect 280E tax accruals to raise cash of $48M for the Company in 2025, leaving Ayr with a projected YE 2025 cash balance of $28M. We see the risk of an ~$20M funding gap if the Company is unable to continue accruing 280E taxes due to stricter IRS enforcement (though this would likely prompt widespread industry court challenges). Meanwhile, the Company continues to have a heavy debt burden, with current debt listed as $25M, and a sizeable majority of the remaining $391M due in late 2026. With disappointing Q4/24 earnings and an ongoing search for a full-time CEO/ CFO, the Company is on weaker footing as it enters a period where it needs to begin considering debt refinancing solutions. Ayr needs positive catalysts to materialize this year to improve its position in debt refinancing talks. Key potential catalysts include federal rescheduling (which could save Ayr up to $50M/year in taxes), Pennsylvania adult-use legalization, and its new Ocala, FL cultivation facility coming online in Q3/25."
Canaccord Genuity
C$4.75→C$3.75
Buy
2243.75%
Upside
Reiterated
02/25/25
Roth MKM
C$4.11
Buy
2470.53%
Upside
Reiterated
11/14/24
Ranks
Any
Analyst Rating
Any
Upside/ Downside
Any
Action
Any
Ventum Financial
C$0.4
Hold
150.00%
Upside
Downgraded
03/07/25
Ventum Capital Markets Downgrades Ayr Wellness (ARA/A:CN) (AYRWF) to Neutral, 'Q4/24 Results Disappoint as Leverage Looms Large'The analyst comments "EVENT: Ayr Wellness Inc. (“Ayr†or “the Companyâ€) reported Q4/24 results that again missed estimates. Sales were roughly flat QoQ, in line with guidance and expectations. However, adj gross margins and adj. EBITDA fell well below our estimates (and management's guidance for flat EBITDA QoQ) as costs continued to climb while pricing continued to fall. Management noted a few one-time items in the quarter, including negative impacts from new Florida seed-to-sale tracking, inventory liquidation in Massachusetts, and ongoing start-up costs associated with assets under development (among other items). EBITDA margins are expected to somewhat recover in Q1/25 as Ayr moves past these events. However, management's Q1/25 guidance was still below well expectations, signalling ongoing softness into 2025. Management indicated Q1/25 sales are expected to decline by mid-single digits QoQ, suggesting sales below the prior consensus of $114.8M and our prior estimate of $113.2M. With reduced earnings expectations for 2025, we now believe that Ayr needs to continue accruing 280E taxes for the year to manage its liquidity. We expect 280E tax accruals to raise cash of $48M for the Company in 2025, leaving Ayr with a projected YE 2025 cash balance of $28M. We see the risk of an ~$20M funding gap if the Company is unable to continue accruing 280E taxes due to stricter IRS enforcement (though this would likely prompt widespread industry court challenges). Meanwhile, the Company continues to have a heavy debt burden, with current debt listed as $25M, and a sizeable majority of the remaining $391M due in late 2026. With disappointing Q4/24 earnings and an ongoing search for a full-time CEO/ CFO, the Company is on weaker footing as it enters a period where it needs to begin considering debt refinancing solutions. Ayr needs positive catalysts to materialize this year to improve its position in debt refinancing talks. Key potential catalysts include federal rescheduling (which could save Ayr up to $50M/year in taxes), Pennsylvania adult-use legalization, and its new Ocala, FL cultivation facility coming online in Q3/25."
Canaccord Genuity
C$4.75→C$3.75
Buy
2243.75%
Upside
Reiterated
02/25/25
Roth MKM
C$4.11
Buy
2470.53%
Upside
Reiterated
11/14/24
Best Analysts Covering Ayr Wellness
1 Month
xxx
Success Rate
0/0 ratings generated profit
Average Return
-
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rating ―
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trades and holding each position for 1 Month would result in - of your transactions generating a profit, with an average return of - per trade.
3 Months
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Success Rate
0/0 ratings generated profit
Average Return
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a xxx
rating ―
Copying xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
trades and holding each position for 3 Months would result in - of your transactions generating a profit, with an average return of - per trade.
1 Year
Success Rate
0/0 ratings generated profit
Average Return
-
a rating ―
Copying Matt Bottomley's trades and holding each position for 1 Year would result in - of your transactions generating a profit, with an average return of - per trade.
2 Years
xxx
Success Rate
0/0 ratings generated profit
Average Return
-
a xxx
rating ―
Copying xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
trades and holding each position for 2 Years would result in - of your transactions generating a profit, with an average return of - per trade.
The Best Analyst Covering tool allows you to follow the analysts who have the best success rates and average returns on a specific stock. Only analysts that gave a Buy or Sell rating on the stock in the past 12 months are eligible for inclusion in this tool. Follow the analysts of your choice to receive real-time updates when they publish a new rating.
AYR.A Analyst Recommendation Trends
Rating
May 24
Aug 24
Nov 24
Feb 25
Mar 25
Strong Buy
3
5
6
6
3
Buy
1
1
1
0
0
Hold
2
4
3
2
1
Sell
0
0
0
0
0
Strong Sell
0
0
0
0
0
total
6
10
10
8
4
Each month's total comprises the sum of three months' worth of ratings.
AYR.A Stock Forecast FAQ
What is TSE:AYR.A’s average 12-month price target, according to analysts?
Based on analyst ratings, Ayr Wellness Inc.’s 12-month average price target is 0.40.
What is TSE:AYR.A’s upside potential, based on the analysts’ average price target?
Ayr Wellness Inc. has 147.69% upside potential, based on the analysts’ average price target.
Can I see which stocks the top-ranking analysts are rating?
Yes, go to the Analysts’ Top Stocks tool to see stocks with a Strong Buy or Strong Sell analyst rating consensus, according to the top performers.
How can I follow the stock ratings of top Wall Street analysts?
Head over to our Expert Center to see a list of the top 100 Wall Street analysts and follow the analysts of your choice. Visit their profiles for more details about their stock ratings and see how they perform on a stock-by-stock basis.
Is TSE:AYR.A a Buy, Sell or Hold?
Ayr Wellness Inc. has a consensus rating of Hold which is based on 0 buy ratings, 0 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings.
What is Ayr Wellness Inc.’s price target?
The average price target for Ayr Wellness Inc. is 0.40. This is based on 0 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months.
The highest analyst price target is C$0.40 ,the lowest forecast is C$0.40. The average price target represents 147.69% Increase from the current price of C$0.16.
The highest analyst price target is C$0.40 ,the lowest forecast is C$0.40. The average price target represents 147.69% Increase from the current price of C$0.16.
What do analysts say about Ayr Wellness Inc.?
Ayr Wellness Inc.’s analyst rating consensus is a Hold. This is based on the ratings of 0 Wall Streets Analysts.
How can I buy shares of TSE:AYR.A?
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