Improving Truckload Pricing Environment and Bid Activity
Late in Q1 management saw mid-single-digit rate increases with volumes holding or growing; company shifted bid targets to high single- to low double-digit percentage increases as incumbents revisit contracts and turndown/turn-back activity increases.
Positive Q2 Guidance — Large Sequential Upside
Company projects Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.45 to $0.49, representing a larger-than-normal sequential increase driven by nonrecurring Q1 headwinds being behind them and improving freight fundamentals.
Truckload Yield and Efficiency Gains
Truckload revenue per loaded mile (ex-fuel) improved 1.4% year-over-year; miles per tractor improved for the seventh consecutive quarter, and adjusted operating ratio only degraded 70 bps to 96.3% despite weather/fuel headwinds.
LTL Freight Mix, Tonnage and Yield Improvements
LTL revenue excluding fuel grew 2.6% YoY driven by a 5.2% increase in weight per shipment and an 8.5% increase in length of haul; March average daily tonnage was up ~7% YoY and Q1 tonnage built sequentially (Jan +1.6%, Feb +2.6%, Mar +6.9%).
Intermodal Growth Momentum
Intermodal revenue grew 2.7% YoY with load count up 1.2% and revenue per load up 1.6%; March load count accelerated +8.4% YoY and operating ratio improved 50 bps YoY.
Logistics Gross Margin Improving Sequentially
Although Logistics revenue declined YoY, gross margin recovered 110 bps sequentially from Q4 and management reports gross margin of 16.6% for Q1 with an adjusted operating ratio of 96.2% (degraded only 70 bps YoY).
Proactive Safety and Carrier Qualification Actions
Company significantly tightened carrier qualification standards (carrier base down ~30% since the beginning of the year) and emphasized safety initiatives (hair-follicle testing adoption internally) expected to improve long-term service quality and reduce claims/insurance costs.
Structural Cost Reductions and Operating Leverage
Management cites two years of structural cost reductions and ongoing opportunities to drive incremental margin as the market improves; LTL shows improving purchased transportation %, equipment rent and variable labor per shipment year-over-year.