Novartis AG: Balancing Promising Pipeline Developments with Valuation and Risk ConcernsWe flag 5 high risk-reward pipeline reads 2H25-FY26E, with first being full data for ianalumab in Sjogren’s (possibly at ACR-25 in Oct), where focus is whether efficacy is clinically meaningful vs bar framed by KOLs (below). Key reads in FY26E: pelacarsen Lp(a) in CVD, zigakibart (anti-APRIL) in IgAN, ianalumab 1L ITP, remi (BTKi) in RMS and abelacimab (anti-FXI) in SPAF. We see each as positive risk-reward but riskier with low-sd $bn peak sales and individually not enough to change mid-term narrative given NOVN’s lower growth outlook/patent exposure (Cosentyx 29E, Kisqali 31E, Kesimpta 31-33E). Despite likely EPS momentum and a decent catalyst path, we stay Neutral on valuation; our target 14.5x 26E PE is higher than would be implied by forecasted growth rate, which accounts for breadth of pipeline. We tweak our EPS on updated product forecasts.