Reiterating Buy on Carnival: Stronger-Than-Expected Earnings, Improving Balance Sheet, and Structural Simplification Drive Higher $40 TargetWe slightly lower our 2026 net yield forecast from +3.0% to +2.6% while keeping our net cruise cost estimate of +3.2% unchanged. Our EPS estimate rises from $2.37 to $2.53 largely on lower fuel, just above guidance of $2.48. We slightly tweak our 1Q26 EPS estimate from $0.16 to $0.17, in-line with guidance, as we raise our unit cost forecast to +5.9% given cost timing and lower our net yield forecast to +1.7%, offset by lower estimated fuel costs. Our 2026E EBITDA is now $7,688M from $7,450M. Caribbean pressure mitigated by diversified sourcing Despite industry Caribbean capacity excluding CCL up +14% in 2026 and 35% of Caribbean, CCL expressed confidence in maintaining price.