The earnings call reflected a mixed sentiment. While AAM demonstrated strong cash flow, financial performance, and strategic business expansion, it faced challenges such as a decline in revenue and market uncertainties affecting backlog and bidding dynamics. The positive aspects of growth and financial stability were balanced by operational challenges and revenue declines.

Company Guidance

During the American Axle & Manufacturing (AAM) fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided comprehensive guidance for 2025. AAM anticipates sales ranging from $5.8 billion to $6.05 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA between $700 million and $760 million. The company projects adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $200 million to $230 million. AAM's 2025 outlook is based on an expected North American production of around 15.1 million units. Despite a challenging environment, AAM remains focused on operational efficiency and continues to optimize its spending, including a $20 million reduction in R&D expenses. The company also highlighted its strategic combination with Dowlais, which is expected to create a leading global driveline and metal-forming supplier, targeting significant revenue synergies and cost efficiencies, with a projected $300 million in run-rate synergies post-combination.

Strong Cash Flow and Financial Performance

AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $79 million in the fourth quarter and $230 million for the full year 2024, exceeding the midpoint of their adjusted free cash flow target. The company improved its adjusted EBITDA margin by 80 basis points year-over-year.

Secured Contracts and Business Expansion

AAM secured a contract extension to supply power transfer units for Ford Maverick and Bronco Sport vehicles. Additionally, AAM announced a transformational combination with Dowlais to create a leading global driveline and metal-forming supplier.

Debt Reduction and Strong Liquidity

AAM ended the year with a net debt of $2.1 billion and reduced its net leverage ratio to 2.8 times from 3.3 times a year ago. The company maintained a total available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion.

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American Axle (AXL) Earnings, Revenues Date & History

The upcoming earnings date is based on a company’s previous reporting, and may be updated when the actual date is announced

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AXL Earnings History

Report Date	Fiscal Quarter	Forecast / EPS	Last Year's EPS	EPS YoY Change	Slides	Play Transcript
May 02, 2025	2025 (Q1)	>-0.01 / -	0.18	―	―	―
Feb 14, 2025	2024 (Q4)	-0.09 / -0.06	-0.09	33.33% (+0.03)
Nov 08, 2024	2024 (Q3)	-0.05 / 0.20	-0.11	281.82% (+0.31)
Aug 09, 2024	2024 (Q2)	0.11 / 0.19	0.12	58.33% (+0.07)
May 03, 2024	2024 (Q1)	0.02 / 0.18	-0.01	1900.00% (+0.19)
Feb 16, 2024	2023 (Q4)	-0.19 / -0.09	-0.07	-28.57% (-0.02)
Nov 03, 2023	2023 (Q3)	-0.01 / -0.11	0.27	-140.74% (-0.38)
Aug 04, 2023	2023 (Q2)	0.09 / 0.12	0.22	-45.45% (-0.10)
May 05, 2023	2023 (Q1)	-0.07 / -0.01	0.19	-105.26% (-0.20)
Feb 17, 2023	2022 (Q4)	0.01 / -0.07	-0.09	22.22% (+0.02)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat

Missed

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AXL Earnings-Related Price Changes

Report Date	Price 1 Day Before	Price 1 Day After	Percentage Change
Feb 14, 2025	$4.75	$5.15	+8.42%
Nov 08, 2024	$6.22	$6.77	+8.84%
Aug 09, 2024	$6.21	$6.51	+4.83%
May 03, 2024	$7.32	$7.49	+2.32%

Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.

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