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Tilray (TLRY)
NASDAQ:TLRY

Tilray (TLRY) AI Stock Analysis

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Tilray

(NASDAQ:TLRY)

44Neutral
Tilray's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges. Persistent losses, liquidity issues, and bearish technical indicators highlight the need for strategic improvements. While revenue growth and recent refinancing efforts offer some hope, the company's valuation and earnings call sentiment underline the risks involved.
Positive Factors
Capital Investments
The company recently completed capital investments in a facility that allows better use of byproducts for vapes and infused pre-rolls, expected to improve Canadian adult-use trends.
International Growth
Tilray's international businesses are positioned for imminent growth, with expectations for the international cannabis topline to accelerate.
Negative Factors
Canadian Market Challenges
Canadian adult-use will be challenging due to price competition.

Tilray (TLRY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Tilray Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilray Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) is a leading global cannabis-lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company with operations in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, and Latin America. The company is engaged in the research, cultivation, production, and distribution of medical cannabis and cannabinoid-based products. Tilray offers a diverse range of products across several categories, including medical and adult-use cannabis, hemp-based foods, and alcoholic beverages.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilray generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis and cannabis-derived products to medical patients and adult-use consumers. Key revenue streams include medical cannabis sales, recreational cannabis sales, and the sale of hemp-based foods and alcoholic beverages. The company leverages its extensive distribution network and strategic partnerships to penetrate various markets, such as through its acquisition of Manitoba Harvest, a leading hemp foods producer, and SweetWater Brewing Company, an American craft brewery. These acquisitions have expanded Tilray's portfolio and provided new revenue opportunities beyond traditional cannabis products. Additionally, the company's investments in research and development, as well as its ability to secure supply agreements with governments and private entities, contribute significantly to its potential earnings growth.

Tilray Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tilray faces operational and financial challenges with persistent losses and liquidity issues. While revenue growth offers a glimmer of hope, profitability remains elusive, and reliance on external financing poses risks. Strategic improvements are essential for sustainable financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Tilray's income statement shows a challenging financial position with negative net income, EBIT, and EBITDA margins over the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period, indicating operational inefficiencies. However, there is a positive revenue growth trend from 2023 to 2024, suggesting potential market expansion.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.11 in 2024, showing reliance on equity financing. The equity ratio is 81.5%, indicating significant equity in the capital structure, but declining stockholder's equity suggests erosion of shareholder value.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, although the operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable. Positive financing cash flow in the TTM period indicates potential reliance on external funding. Free cash flow growth is negative, posing liquidity challenges.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
829.22M788.94M627.12M628.37M513.09M391.00M
Gross Profit
212.06M223.35M146.96M116.82M123.18M137.68M
EBIT
-132.78M-174.75M-1.37B153.29M-4.95M51.48M
EBITDA
-104.62M-72.84M-889.52M-246.40M-218.36M-18.40M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-248.89M-244.98M-1.44B-434.13M-336.01M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
252.25M260.52M448.53M415.91M488.47M358.47M
Total Assets
4.19B4.22B4.31B5.45B6.03B1.80B
Total Debt
373.79M387.32M590.13M623.81M938.66M300.32M
Net Debt
184.09M158.98M383.50M207.90M450.19M-58.15M
Total Liabilities
738.15M778.49M977.32M1.01B1.56B475.89M
Stockholders Equity
3.47B3.44B3.32B4.40B4.46B1.31B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-86.83M-60.15M-12.89M-211.33M-83.59M
Operating Cash Flow
-60.98M-30.91M7.91M-177.26M-44.72M
Investing Cash Flow
12.62M128.35M-285.11M-21.53M46.10M
Financing Cash Flow
94.72M-75.19M70.16M128.20M124.31M125.40M

Tilray Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.64
Price Trends
50DMA
1.02
Negative
100DMA
1.23
Negative
200DMA
1.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Positive
RSI
29.19
Positive
STOCH
16.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLRY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.79, below the 50-day MA of 1.02, and below the 200-day MA of 1.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.19 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TLRY.

Tilray Risk Analysis

Tilray disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilray reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilray Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$400.90M-8.73%-2.41%52.78%
68
Neutral
$1.04B18.193.80%35.87%
TSACB
53
Neutral
C$343.57M27.404.78%16.39%-98.10%
49
Neutral
$6.90B0.02-54.05%2.46%24.91%-3.14%
TSOGI
47
Neutral
C$179.23M-18.27%7.33%84.41%
44
Neutral
$571.59M-7.28%18.38%86.59%
32
Underperform
$290.12M-84.50%-16.27%76.17%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLRY
Tilray
0.64
-0.96
-60.00%
SNDL
SNDL
1.54
0.23
17.56%
TSE:WEED
Canopy Growth
1.61
-2.14
-57.07%
TSE:CRON
Cronos Group
2.70
0.00
0.00%
TSE:ACB
Aurora Cannabis
6.37
2.46
62.92%
TSE:OGI
OrganiGram Holdings
1.45
-1.08
-42.69%

Tilray Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 10, 2025 | % Change Since: -53.28% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth and successful expansion in the beverage and international cannabis segments. However, these positives were tempered by significant net loss and challenges in the Canadian cannabis market, as well as impacts from SKU rationalization. Though there are promising growth areas, the financial setbacks and market challenges balance the overall sentiment.
Highlights
Strong Net Revenue Growth
Quarter 2 net revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $211 million, marking the highest Q2 net revenue ever for the company.
Beverage Business Expansion
The beverage segment, including craft beer and nonalcoholic beverages, grew 36% in net revenue year-over-year, with the synergy plan achieving $17 million in cost savings.
International Cannabis Growth
The international cannabis business grew 25% year-over-year, driven by strong sales in markets like Germany, Poland, the U.K., and Italy.
Wellness Segment Growth
The wellness business reported a 13% net revenue increase compared to the prior year, with improvements in gross margin by 200 basis points.
Strong Gross Margin and Profit
Gross profit increased by 29% and gross margin increased by 500 basis points compared to the prior year, reflecting operational optimizations.
Lowlights
Net Loss Increase
Net loss was $85.3 million compared to a net loss of $46.2 million in the prior year quarter, mainly due to noncash costs including a $34 million foreign exchange loss.
SKU Rationalization Impact
SKU rationalization lowered revenues by $8 million, with ongoing impacts expected to offset by new product introductions and brand extensions.
Challenges in Canadian Cannabis Market
Revenue from Canadian adult-use cannabis decreased 18%, affected by price compression and focus on maintaining higher average selling prices in high excise tax categories.
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2025 earnings call for Tilray Brands, the company provided several key metrics and insights regarding its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The net revenue for the quarter grew by 9% year-over-year to $211 million, with a gross profit increase of 29% and gross margin up by 500 basis points compared to the prior quarter. The beverage segment was highlighted for its significant growth, achieving a 36% increase in net revenue year-over-year. Meanwhile, the international cannabis business experienced a 25% growth, particularly driven by sales in Germany, Poland, the U.K., and Italy. Despite an adjusted net loss of $2 million, Tilray emphasized its robust financial position, noting a strong balance sheet and reduced debt levels. The company reaffirmed its guidance for fiscal 2025, predicting net revenues between $950 million and $1 billion. Additionally, Tilray discussed ongoing initiatives like SKU rationalization and Project 420, targeting $25 million in cost savings, with $17 million already realized.

Tilray Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tilray Refinances Loan to Strengthen Financial Stability
Positive
Feb 26, 2025

On February 21, 2025, Aphria Diamond Inc., a subsidiary of Tilray Brands, Inc., refinanced its existing term loan by entering into a new Credit Agreement with the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. This agreement involves term loans totaling CAD $53 million, with a significant portion used to repay a prior credit agreement. The new loans mature in 2028, with quarterly repayments required, and are secured by a first lien on the borrower’s assets. This refinancing effort is part of Tilray’s strategy to manage its financial obligations and improve its capital structure, potentially impacting its financial stability and market operations.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.