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SES AI Corporation Class A (SES)
NYSE:SES
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SES AI Corporation Class A
(NYSE:SES)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-54.55% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals (large losses and persistent cash burn) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative momentum). The main offset is the earnings call’s improved 2026 outlook (revenue growth guidance, opex reduction, and strong liquidity), though reliance on non-recurring 2025 service revenue and ongoing commercialization uncertainty temper that support.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth (2025)
A near-tenfold increase in 2025 revenue demonstrates meaningful commercial traction: paid development, prototype sales and partner-funded work. That scale-up indicates the business is moving beyond R&D into repeatable revenue streams, improving visibility for 2–6 month revenue trends and partner-driven growth.
Strong liquidity runway
$200M of liquidity gives SES AI substantial runway to execute capex-light scale plans, fund development contracts, and evaluate manufacturing conversions without imminent financing. This materially lowers near-term solvency risk and enables strategic partnering or investment over the next several quarters.
Proprietary AI-driven materials platform
The Molecular Universe platform creates a durable competitive advantage: proprietary discoveries plus customer testing accelerate validation cycles, support recurring SaaS/IP revenue potential, and differentiate offerings across ESS, cell chemistry and materials — enabling long-term commercial optionality.
Negative Factors
High one-time service revenue in 2025
A large portion of 2025 revenue was one-off OEM services, reducing the sustainability of recent top-line strength. Reliance on non-recurring contracts makes short-term growth lumpy and complicates forecasting, pressuring the company to convert development wins into repeatable product sales over the next 2–6 months.
Persistent negative operating cash flow
Consistent and large cash burn implies ongoing funding needs until scaled commercial sales materialize. Even with strong liquidity, sustained negative operating cash flow erodes capital over time, constraining investments in manufacturing scale and requiring disciplined execution to reach positive cash generation.
Manufacturing scale & OEM commercialization risk
OEM commercialization pause and limited pilot capacities mean SES AI must secure additional NDAA-compliant scale or partners to serve large customers. This structural execution gap creates a multi-quarter bottleneck: product validation may be ready, but inability to scale manufacturing limits revenue conversion and long-term margin improvement.
SES AI Corporation Class A (SES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$406.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.42
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-15.43%
CountryUS
Employees250
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding322,742,550
10 Day Avg. Volume14,450,440
30 Day Avg. Volume8,896,171
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)2.77
Price to Sales (P/S)28.36
P/FCF Ratio-9.73
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit33.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.21
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$47.55M
SES AI Corporation Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSES AI Corporation engages in the development and production of high-performance Lithium-metal rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles and other applications. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneySES AI’s revenue model is based on monetizing its battery technology through a mix of customer-funded development work and commercialization activities tied to lithium-metal battery cells. Key revenue streams include: (1) collaborative R&D / development services and related milestone or contract payments from strategic partners and customers working with SES on lithium-metal battery development and validation; (2) sales or evaluation supply of prototype or pre-production battery cells (and potentially associated testing/engineering support) to customers as part of qualification programs; and (3) potential future revenue from commercial supply arrangements if and when SES achieves scaled manufacturing and customer adoption for production programs. Partnerships with automotive and battery ecosystem participants are a significant factor in the business model because they can provide funding, validation pathways, and eventual offtake opportunities; however, specific partner terms, pricing, and the split of revenue by stream are null.
SES AI Corporation Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of meaningful progress and remaining execution risks. Positives include a nearly tenfold increase in 2025 revenue, large full-year gross margins (driven by one-time service revenue), significant reductions in operating expenses, improved adjusted EBITDA and net loss metrics, a strong $200M liquidity position, an acquisition (UZ Energy) with an initial $20M distributor contract, and tangible early traction from the Molecular Universe platform (six discoveries tested by 40+ customers). Offsetting these gains are several material caveats: a substantial portion of 2025 revenue was one-time service work ($13.6M); C-sample commercialization for EV lithium-metal batteries is on hold due to weak OEM investment; Q4 margins were depressed by product mix; the business remains loss-making with meaningful cash used in operations; manufacturing scale for drones is currently limited and requires further capital/partnering; and molecular-universe monetization and broader adoption remain early-stage. Given the sizable operational and financial improvements but important sustainability and scaling risks, the overall tone is balanced between optimism for 2026 ramp and caution about recurring revenue and commercialization timelines.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Full year 2025 revenue of $21.0M versus a little over $2M in 2024 — described as nearly tenfold year-over-year growth; Q4 2025 revenue was $4.6M, a $2.6M (124%) increase year-over-year.
High Full-Year Gross Margins (Driven by Services)
Full year GAAP gross margin was 53.8% and non-GAAP gross margin was 55.7% for 2025 (reflecting high-margin service contributions in the year).
Operating Expense Reductions and Improved Profitability Trends
Q4 2025 GAAP operating expenses were $18.2M (down 40% YoY from $30.4M); Q4 non-GAAP operating expenses were $13.5M (down 44% YoY). Full year GAAP Opex declined 15% to $93.9M and non-GAAP Opex declined 11% to $73.0M versus 2024.
Improved Adjusted EBITDA and Net Loss Metrics
Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $13.8M (40% improvement vs prior-year quarter). Full-year adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $52.6M (23% improvement YoY). GAAP net loss for 2025 was $73M ($0.22/sh) vs $100.2M ($0.31/sh) in 2024.
Strong Liquidity Position
Exited 2025 with $200M in liquidity (at the top end of prior expectation of $195M–$200M), providing runway for 2026 initiatives and CapEx-light execution.
UZ Energy Acquisition and Early Commercial Wins
Acquisition of UZ Energy contributed ~3.5 months of 2025 revenue; UZ signed a multiyear $20M contract with a major distributor and has historical shipments totaling almost a gigawatt-hour of hardware across multiple regions.
Molecular Universe Progress and Customer Interest
Molecular Universe discovered six electrolyte/material breakthroughs currently being tested by over 40 customers; MU SaaS revenue is building and MU is positioned as an IP/data asset with potential standalone value.
2026 Guidance Reflects Continued Growth
Company expects 2026 revenue of $30M–$35M, representing ~43%–67% growth over 2025; consolidated gross margin expected to be ~15% with potential to improve as attach rates and scale increase.
CapEx-Light Strategy and Controlled Cash Deployment
2025 cash usage included $58.4M used in operations, $3.3M deployed on the UZ acquisition, $2.9M CapEx, and $1.6M returned via share repurchases; 2026 CapEx expected to remain in the single-digit millions focused on Korea conversion and contract manufacturer evaluation.
NDAA-Compliant Manufacturing Asset
Chungju, South Korea facility has been NDAA-compliant since 2021 and is being positioned for conversion to NDAA-compliant drone cell production; company is pursuing additional Southeast Asia capacity.
Negative Updates
Heavy One-Time Service Revenue in 2025
Service revenue of $13.6M in 2025 was primarily driven by one-time Honda and Hyundai development agreements — management clarified this is not expected to recur in 2026, reducing the sustainability of 2025's revenue base.
Revenue Timing and Logistics Impact
Logistics constraints delayed shipments at year-end 2025, pushing approximately $1.5M of revenue into Q1 2026 and creating short-term timing headwinds to reported results.
EV OEM Commercialization on Hold
C-sample / mass-production plans for next-gen EV batteries (lithium metal) are on hold due to reduced OEM appetite and macro slowdown in EV investment; OEMs are favoring LFP graphite for now.
Q4 Product Mix Pressured Margins
Q4 2025 GAAP gross margin was only 11.3% (non-GAAP 11.7%) driven by a higher mix of lower-margin ESS product sales in the quarter, demonstrating quarter-to-quarter margin variability tied to revenue mix.
Ongoing Losses and Cash Burn
Despite improvements, the company remains loss-making: full-year adjusted EBITDA loss of $52.6M and GAAP net loss of $73M in 2025; operations used $58.4M in cash during the year.
Limited Current Manufacturing Scale
Current pilot manufacturing capacities are small (Boston pilot <100,000 cells/year; Korea line currently limited and slated for conversion) and require additional NDAA-compliant capacity (planned in SE Asia) to serve large drone customers at scale.
Molecular Universe Adoption Friction
Management identified adoption bottlenecks for AI-for-science in materials/batteries (tech is new for this industry), requiring time and customer validation despite early breakthrough discoveries; broader monetization timing uncertain.
GAAP Volatility from Noncash Items
GAAP net loss in any quarter can be meaningfully affected by mark-to-market fair value changes in sponsor earnout liabilities, creating volatility that management says may obscure underlying operating performance.
Company Guidance
SES AI guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $30–35 million (≈43%–67% growth vs. 2025’s $21 million), with ~65% of 2026 revenue expected from ESS and the remainder from drones and materials (drones/materials skewed to 2H), a blended gross margin around 15% (ESS ~15%, drones >20% as volumes scale, materials 10%–20%), operating expenses forecast to be ~15% lower than 2025, CapEx expected to remain in the single‑digit millions (primarily for the Korea NDAA conversion and capacity evaluations), and the company entering 2026 with $200 million of liquidity; management also noted 2025 included $13.6 million of one‑time OEM service revenue and about $1.5 million of revenue pushed into Q1 2026.SES AI Corporation Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue scaled meaningfully in 2025 ($21.0M vs ~$2.0M in 2024) with strong full-year gross margin (~54%), but profitability and cash generation remain very weak (2025 net loss ~$73.0M; operating cash flow about -$58.4M and free cash flow about -$61.2M). Low leverage (debt ~$8.1M; debt-to-equity ~0.04) and a sizeable equity base help, but ongoing losses continue to pressure the balance sheet.Income Statement
Revenue has started to scale meaningfully in 2025 (up ~13.6% with $21.0M sales versus $2.0M in 2024) and gross margin is solid in 2025 (~54%). However, profitability remains deeply negative: 2025 net loss was about $73.0M (net margin roughly -348%), following a ~$100.2M loss in 2024, indicating the cost structure is still far ahead of the current revenue base. Earlier years show little-to-no revenue, underscoring that the business is still in a heavy investment/early commercialization phase.22
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is low, with total debt around $8.1M in 2025 and debt-to-equity near 0.04, which reduces financial risk. Equity is still sizeable (~$214.8M in 2025), but it has declined versus 2024 (~$278.3M) as losses continue to erode the capital base. Returns on equity remain meaningfully negative (about -34% in 2025), highlighting that the balance sheet strength is being pressured by ongoing operating losses.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is weak, with operating cash flow negative across the period (about -$58.4M in 2025) and free cash flow also negative (about -$61.2M in 2025). Free cash flow deterioration in 2025 (growth around -3.24) suggests higher cash burn versus the prior year. While free cash flow loss is roughly in line with net loss (free cash flow to net income ~1.05 in 2025), the overall profile indicates continued funding needs until revenues scale and losses narrow.24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 21.00M | 2.04M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 11.31M | 1.29M | -5.54M | -2.60M | -1.66M |
| EBITDA | -72.32M | -100.94M | -72.62M | -76.98M | -30.34M |
| Net Income | -73.04M | -100.19M | -53.40M | -50.99M | -31.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 272.65M | 329.79M | 406.81M | 440.44M | 193.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 199.63M | 262.54M | 332.45M | 390.08M | 160.50M |
| Total Debt | 8.11M | 10.56M | 13.72M | 12.06M | 1.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 57.89M | 51.48M | 47.86M | 48.90M | 281.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 214.75M | 278.31M | 358.95M | 391.54M | -88.32M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -61.22M | -78.29M | -72.17M | -61.15M | -38.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -58.36M | -66.09M | -56.41M | -46.50M | -29.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.19M | 108.19M | 32.72M | -296.01M | 3.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.96M | 1.01M | 3.27M | 289.93M | 184.76M |
SES AI Corporation Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
2.20
Price Trends
1.81
Negative
1.94
Negative
1.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
33.61
Neutral
22.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SES, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.42, above the 50-day MA of 1.81, and above the 200-day MA of 1.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SES.
SES AI Corporation Class A Risk Analysis
SES AI Corporation Class A disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. SES AI Corporation Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
SES AI Corporation Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $1.05B | -10.09 | -0.23% | ― | 45.98% | 44.14% | |
50 Neutral | $84.25M | -2.79 | -72.75% | ― | -19.11% | 73.51% | |
48 Neutral | $877.17M | -5.21 | 9999.00% | ― | 89.90% | 5.13% | |
48 Neutral | $688.20M | -7.26 | -23.87% | ― | 25.24% | -12.96% | |
46 Neutral | $4.20B | ― | -38.52% | ― | ― | 15.04% | |
43 Neutral | $406.95M | -8.16 | -30.37% | ― | ― | -15.43% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SES
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SES AI Corporation Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
SES AI highlights AI-driven battery strategy at conference
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
On January 16, 2026, SES AI Corporation is scheduled to present at the Needham Growth Conference, highlighting its strategy to accelerate the energy transition by integrating AI-driven battery materials discovery and health management into its product offerings. The company reports $16.4 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, maintains full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $20 million to $25 million, and cites a strong liquidity position of $214 million as of September 30, 2025, while emphasizing that its Molecular Universe platform underpins competitive advantages in ESS, cells and electrolyte materials, and is expected to support revenue growth and value creation from 2026 onward.
The most recent analyst rating on (SES) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SES AI Corporation Class A stock, see the SES Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.