Origin Bancorp (OBK) Risk Factors

Historically, we have originated mortgage loans for sale in the secondary market. When mortgage loans are sold in the secondary market, we are required to make customary representations and warranties to the purchasers about the mortgage loans and the manner in which they were originated. The mortgage loan sale agreements require us to repurchase or substitute mortgage loans or indemnify buyers against losses, in the event we breach these representations and warranties. In addition, we may be required to repurchase mortgage loans as a result of early payment default of the borrower on a mortgage loan. With respect to loans that are originated by us through our broker or correspondents, the remedies available against the originating broker or correspondent, if any, may not be as broad as the remedies available to a purchaser of mortgage loans against us or the originating broker or correspondent, if any, may not have the financial capacity to perform remedies that otherwise may be available. Therefore, if a purchaser enforces their remedies against us, we may not be able to recover losses from the originating broker or correspondent. If repurchase and indemnity demands increase and such demands are valid claims, it could diminish our liquidity, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We were not required to repurchase any material amount of mortgage loans sold into the secondary market during 2023, 2022 or 2021.

Liquidity is essential to our business, and we monitor our liquidity and manage our liquidity risk at the holding company and bank levels daily. We rely on our ability to generate deposits and effectively manage the repayment and maturity schedules of our loans and investment securities, respectively, to ensure that we have adequate liquidity to fund our operations. An inability to raise funds through deposits, borrowings, the sale of our investment securities, the sale of loans, and other sources could have a substantial negative effect on our liquidity. Our most important source of funds is deposits. Deposit balances can decrease when customers perceive alternative investments as providing a better risk/return tradeoff. If our customers move money out of deposits and into other investments such as money market funds, we would lose a relatively low-cost source of funds, increasing our funding costs and reducing our net interest margin, net interest income and net income. Other primary sources of funds consist of cash flows from operations, maturities and sales of investment securities, and proceeds from the issuance and sale of our equity and debt securities to investors. Access to liquidity may be negatively impacted by the value of our securities portfolio, if liquidity and/or business strategy necessitate the sales of securities in a loss position. Additional liquidity is provided by the ability to borrow from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas. Recently proposed changes to the Federal Home Loan Bank system could adversely impact the Company's access to Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings or increase the cost of such borrowings. We also may borrow funds from third-party lenders, such as other financial institutions. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance or capitalize our activities, or on terms that are acceptable to us, could be impaired by factors that affect us directly or the financial services industry or economy in general, such as disruptions in the financial markets or negative views and expectations about the prospects for the financial services industry. Our access to funding sources could also be affected by a decrease in the level of our business activity as a result of a downturn in our primary market area or by one or more adverse regulatory actions against us. In addition, our access to deposits may be affected by the liquidity and/or cash flow needs of depositors, which may be exacerbated in an inflationary, recessionary, or elevated rate environment. Any decline in available funding could adversely impact our ability to originate loans, invest in securities, meet our expenses, or to fulfill obligations such as repaying our borrowings or meeting deposit withdrawal demands, any of which could have a material adverse impact on our liquidity and could, in turn, have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, because our primary asset at the holding company level is the bank, our liquidity at the holding company level depends primarily on our receipt of dividends from the bank. If the bank is unable to pay dividends to us for any reason, we may be unable to satisfy our holding company level obligations, which include funding operating expenses and debt service obligations.

We face significant capital and other regulatory requirements as a financial institution. We may need to raise additional capital in the future to provide us with sufficient capital resources and liquidity to meet our commitments and business needs, which could include the possibility of financing acquisitions. In addition, we, on a consolidated basis, and Origin Bank, on a stand-alone basis, must meet certain regulatory capital requirements and maintain sufficient liquidity in such amounts as the regulators may require from time to time. Importantly, regulatory capital requirements could increase from current levels, which could require us to raise additional capital or reduce our operations. Even if we satisfy all applicable regulatory capital minimums, our regulators could ask us to maintain capital levels which are significantly in excess of those minimums. Our ability to raise additional capital depends on conditions in the capital markets, economic conditions and a number of other factors, including investor perceptions regarding the banking industry, market conditions and governmental activities, and on our financial condition and performance. Accordingly, we cannot assure you that we will be able to raise additional capital if needed or on terms acceptable to us. If we fail to maintain capital to meet regulatory requirements, we could be subject to enforcement actions or other regulatory consequences, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operation.

We use interest rate swaps to help manage our interest rate risk from recorded financial assets and liabilities when they can be demonstrated to effectively hedge a designated asset or liability and the asset or liability exposes us to interest rate risk or risks inherent in customer related derivatives. We use other derivative financial instruments to help manage other economic risks, such as liquidity and credit risk, including exposures that arise from business activities that result in the receipt or payment of future known and uncertain cash amounts, the value of which are determined by interest rates. Our derivative financial instruments are used to manage differences in the amount, timing, and duration of our known or expected cash receipts principally related to our fixed rate loan assets. Hedging interest rate risk is a complex process, requiring sophisticated models and routine monitoring, and is not a perfect science. As a result of interest rate fluctuations, hedged assets and liabilities will appreciate or depreciate in market value. The effect of this unrealized appreciation or depreciation will generally be offset by income or loss on the derivative instruments that are linked to the hedged assets and liabilities. By engaging in derivative transactions, we are exposed to credit and market risk. If the counterparty fails to perform, credit risk exists to the extent of the fair value gain in the derivative. Market risk exists to the extent that interest rates change in ways that are significantly different from what we expected when we entered into the derivative transaction. The existence of credit and market risk associated with our derivative instruments could adversely affect our net interest income and, therefore, could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Significant increases in market interest rates on loans, or the perception that an increase may occur, could adversely affect both our ability to originate new loans and our ability to grow. Beginning early in 2022, in response to growing signs of inflation, the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates rapidly. Further, the Federal Reserve announced an intention to take further actions to mitigate inflationary pressures. Rapid changes in interest rates may make it difficult for us to balance our loan and deposit portfolios, which may adversely affect our results of operations by, for example, reducing asset yields or spreads, or having other adverse impacts on our business. Conversely, decreases in interest rates could result in an acceleration of loan prepayments. The increased market interest rates could also adversely affect the ability of our floating-rate borrowers to meet their higher payment obligations. If this occurred, it could cause an increase in nonperforming assets and charge offs, which could adversely affect our business. Further, our earnings and financial condition are dependent to a large degree upon net interest income, which is the difference or spread, between interest earned on interest-earning assets and interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities. When market rates of interest change, the interest we receive on our assets and the interest we pay on our liabilities may fluctuate. This can cause decreases in our spread and can adversely affect our earnings and financial condition. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors including: - The rate of inflation;- Economic conditions;- Federal monetary policies; and - Stability of domestic and foreign markets. Changes in interest rates can increase or decrease our net interest income, because different types of assets and liabilities may react differently, and at different times, to market interest rate changes. When interest-bearing liabilities mature or reprice more quickly, or to a greater degree than interest-earning assets in the same period, an increase in interest rates could reduce net interest income. Similarly, when interest-earning assets mature or reprice more quickly, or to a greater degree than interest-bearing liabilities, falling interest rates could reduce net interest income. As of December 31, 2023, our net interest income simulations projected that 100 and 200 basis point increases in interest rates would result in a positive variance in net interest income of 0.3% and 8.0%, respectively, relative to the base case over the next 12 months, while decreases in interest rates of 100 and 200 basis points would result in a negative variance in net interest income of 4.5% and 0.8%, respectively, relative to the base case over the next 12 months. These are estimates and assume that the composition of our interest sensitive assets and liabilities existing at each year-end will remain constant over the relevant twelve month measurement period and that changes in market interest rates are instant and constant across the yield curve regardless of duration of pricing characteristics of specific assets or liabilities. Changes in market values of investment securities classified as available for sale are impacted by higher rates and can negatively impact our other comprehensive (loss) income and equity levels through accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income, which includes net unrealized gains and losses on those securities. Further, such losses could be realized into earnings should liquidity and/or business strategy necessitate the sales of securities in a loss position. Additionally, further increases in interest rates may, among other things, reduce the demand for loans and our ability to originate loans and decrease loan repayment rates. A decrease in the general level of interest rates may affect us through, among other things, increased prepayments on our loan portfolio and increased competition for deposits. Accordingly, changes in the level of market interest rates affect our net yield on interest-earning assets, loan origination volume, loan portfolio and our overall results. Moreover, although we have implemented practices we believe will reduce the potential effects of changes in interest rates on our net interest income, these practices may not always be successful. Accordingly, changes in levels of market interest rates could materially and adversely affect our net interest income and our net interest margin, asset quality, loan and lease origination volume, liquidity, and overall profitability. We cannot assure you that we can minimize our interest rate risk. In addition, we originate residential mortgage loans for sale and for our portfolio. The origination of residential mortgage loans is highly dependent on the local real estate market and the level of interest rates. Increasing interest rates tend to reduce the origination of loans for sale and fee income, which we report as gain on sale of loans. Decreasing interest rates generally result in increased prepayments of loans and mortgage-backed securities, as borrowers refinance their debt in order to reduce their borrowing cost. This typically leads to reinvestment at lower rates than the loans or securities were paying. Changes in market interest rates could also reduce the value of our financial assets. Our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected if we are unsuccessful in managing the effects of changes in interest rates.

As a result of our mortgage servicing business, we have a portfolio of mortgage servicing rights on unpaid principal balances of $1.39 billion at December 31, 2023. A mortgage servicing right is the right to service a mortgage loan - collect principal, interest and escrow amounts - for a fee. We measure and carry our residential mortgage servicing rights using the fair value measurement method. Fair value is determined as the present value of estimated future net servicing income, calculated based on a number of variables, including assumptions about the likelihood of prepayment by borrowers. The primary risk associated with mortgage servicing rights is that in a declining interest rate environment, they will likely lose a substantial portion of their value as a result of higher than anticipated prepayments. Moreover, if prepayments are greater than expected, the cash we receive over the life of the mortgage loans would be reduced. Conversely, these assets generally increase in value in a rising interest rate environment to the extent that prepayments are slower than previously estimated. An increase in the size of our mortgage servicing rights portfolio may increase our interest rate risk. At December 31, 2023, our mortgage servicing rights had a fair value of $15.6 million, compared to $20.8 million at December 31, 2022. Changes in fair value of our mortgage servicing rights are recorded to earnings in each period. Depending on the interest rate environment, it is possible that the fair value of our mortgage servicing rights may be reduced in the future. If such changes in fair value significantly reduce the carrying value of our mortgage servicing rights, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. During December 2023 and January 2024, we solicited non-binding indications of interest with respect to the proposed sale of substantially all of our mortgage servicing rights asset and recognized an impairment of $1.8 million in December 2023. The Company plans to sell approximately $17.4 million in mortgage servicing rights, representing approximately $1.39 billion in unpaid principal balances, subject to successful negotiation of a definitive purchase and sale agreement and satisfaction of all closing conditions.

Our business depends on our ability to successfully measure and manage credit risk. As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that the principal of, or interest on, a loan will not be repaid timely or at all or that the value of any collateral supporting a loan will be insufficient to cover our outstanding exposure. In addition, we are exposed to risks with respect to the period of time over which the loan may be repaid, risks relating to proper loan underwriting, risks resulting from changes in economic and industry conditions, and risks inherent in dealing with individual loans and borrowers. The creditworthiness of a borrower is affected by many factors, including local market conditions and general economic conditions. If the overall economic climate in the United States, generally, or our market areas, specifically, experiences material disruption, our borrowers may experience difficulties in repaying their loans, the collateral we hold may decrease in value or become illiquid, and the level of nonperforming loans, charge-offs and delinquencies could rise and require significant additional provisions for credit losses. Additional factors related to the credit quality of commercial loans include the quality of the management of the business and the borrower's ability both to properly evaluate changes in the supply and demand characteristics affecting our market for products and services and to effectively respond to those changes. Additional factors related to the credit quality of commercial real estate loans include tenant vacancy rates and the quality of management of the property. Our risk management practices, such as monitoring the concentration of our loans within specific industries and our credit approval, review and administrative practices may not adequately reduce credit risk, and our credit administration personnel, policies and procedures may not adequately adapt to changes in economic or any other conditions affecting customers and the quality of the loan portfolio. A failure to effectively measure and limit the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio may result in loan defaults, foreclosures and additional charge-offs, and may necessitate that we significantly increase our allowance for credit losses, each of which could adversely affect our net income. As a result, our inability to successfully manage credit risk could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our experience in the banking industry indicates that some portion of our loans will not be fully repaid in a timely manner or at all. Accordingly, we maintain an allowance for loan credit losses that represents management's judgment of expected losses and risks inherent in our loan portfolio. The level of the allowance reflects management's continuing evaluation of general economic conditions, diversification and seasoning of the loan portfolio, historic loss experience, identified credit problems, delinquency levels and adequacy of collateral. The determination of the appropriate level of the allowance for loan credit losses is inherently highly subjective and requires us to make significant estimates of and assumptions regarding current credit risks and future trends, all of which may undergo material changes. Inaccurate management assumptions, deterioration of economic conditions affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require us to increase our allowance for loan credit losses and additional expenses may be incurred. At any time, we are likely to have loans in our portfolio that will result in losses but that have not been identified as nonperforming or potential problem credits. We cannot be certain that we will be able to identify deteriorating credits before they become nonperforming assets or that we will be able to limit or correctly estimate losses on those loans that are identified. In addition, our regulators, as an integral part of their periodic examination, review the adequacy of our allowance for loan credit losses and may direct us to make additions to the allowance based on their judgments about information available to them at the time of their examination. Changes in economic conditions or individual business or personal circumstances affecting borrowers, new information regarding existing loans, identification of additional problem loans and other factors, both within and outside of our control, may require an increase in the allowance. Further, if actual charge-offs in future periods exceed our estimation of charge-offs, we may need additional provision for loan losses to restore the adequacy of our allowance for loan losses. If we are required to materially increase our level of allowance for loan credit losses for any reason, such increases could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Real estate values in our markets have experienced periods of fluctuation over the last several years, and the market value of real estate can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. At December 31, 2023, $5.25 billion, or 68.5%, of our total LHFI was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary component of collateral. We also make loans secured by real estate as a supplemental source of collateral. Adverse changes affecting real estate values and the liquidity of real estate in one or more of our markets could increase the credit risk associated with our loan portfolio, and could result in losses that adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operation. Negative changes in the economy affecting real estate values and liquidity in our market areas could significantly impair the value of property pledged as collateral on loans and affect our ability to sell the collateral upon foreclosure without a loss or additional losses. Collateral may have to be sold for less than the outstanding balance of the loan, which could result in losses on such loans. Such declines and losses could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. If real estate values decline, it is also more likely that we would be required to increase our allowance for loan credit losses, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our loan portfolio includes non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans for individuals and businesses for various purposes, which are secured by commercial properties, as well as real estate construction and development loans. At December 31, 2023, our non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans totaled $1.49 billion, or 19.4%, of our total loan portfolio. These loans typically involve repayment dependent upon income generated, or expected to be generated, by the property securing the loan in amounts sufficient to cover operating expenses and debt service, which may be adversely affected by changes in the economy or local market conditions. These loans expose us to greater credit risk than loans secured by residential real estate because the collateral securing these loans typically cannot be liquidated as easily as residential real estate because there are fewer potential purchasers of the collateral. Additionally, non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans generally involve relatively large balances to single borrowers or related groups of borrowers. Accordingly, charge-offs on non-owner-occupied commercial real estate loans may be larger on a per loan basis than those incurred with our residential or consumer loan portfolios. Unexpected deterioration in the credit quality of our commercial real estate loan portfolio would require us to increase our provision for loan losses, which would reduce our profitability, and could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

At December 31, 2023, approximately $2.06 billion, or 26.9%, of our total loans were commercial and industrial loans to businesses. In general, these loans are collateralized by general business assets, including, among other things, accounts receivable, inventory and equipment and many are backed by a personal guaranty of the borrower or principal. These commercial loans are typically larger in amount than loans to individuals and, therefore, have the potential for larger losses on a single loan basis. Additionally, the repayment of commercial loans is subject to the ongoing business operations of the borrower. The collateral securing such loans generally includes movable property, such as equipment and inventory, which may decline in value more rapidly than we anticipate, exposing us to increased credit risk. In addition, a portion of our customer base, including customers in the energy and real estate business, may be exposed to volatile businesses or industries which are sensitive to commodity prices or market fluctuations, such as energy prices. Accordingly, negative changes in commodity prices and real estate values and liquidity could impair the value of the collateral securing these loans. Significant adverse changes in the economy or local market conditions in which our commercial lending customers operate could cause rapid declines in loan collectability and the values associated with general business assets resulting in inadequate collateral coverage that may expose us to credit losses and could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our growth over the past several years has been partially attributable to our ability to originate and retain relatively large loans given our asset size. At December 31, 2023, the size of our average loan held for investment was approximately $538,170. Further, at December 31, 2023, our 20 largest borrowing relationships, excluding mortgage loans held for sale, represented 10.6% of our outstanding loan portfolio, and 11.2% of our total commitments to extend credit. Along with other risks inherent in our loans, such as the deterioration of the underlying businesses or property securing these loans, the higher average size of our loans presents a risk to our lending operations. If any of our largest borrowers become unable to repay their loan obligations as a result of economic or market conditions or personal circumstances, our nonperforming loans and our provision for loan losses could increase significantly, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our ability to engage in routine funding transactions could be adversely affected by the actions and commercial soundness of other financial institutions. Financial services companies are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty, and other relationships. We have exposure to different industries and counterparties, and through transactions with counterparties in the financial services industry, including broker-dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, and other financial intermediaries. In addition, we participate in loans originated by other institutions, and we participate in syndicated transactions (including shared national credits) in which other lenders serve as the lead bank. As a result, defaults by, declines in the financial condition of, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial institutions, financial service companies or the financial services industry generally, may lead to market-wide liquidity, asset quality or other problems and could lead to losses or defaults by us or by other institutions. These problems, losses or defaults could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Increased regulatory capital requirements (and the associated compliance costs), whether due to the adoption of new laws and regulations, changes in existing laws and regulations, or more expansive or aggressive interpretations of existing laws and regulations, may require us to raise additional capital, or impact our ability to repurchase shares of capital stock, pay dividends or pay compensation to our executives, which could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and the value of our common stock. If Origin Bank does not meet minimum capital requirements, it will be subject to prompt corrective action by the Federal Reserve. Prompt corrective action can include progressively more restrictive constraints on operations, management and capital distributions. Failure to exceed the capital conservation buffer will result in certain limitations on dividends, capital repurchases, and discretionary bonus payments to executive officers. Even if we meet minimum capital requirements, it is possible that our regulators may ask us to raise additional capital.

Our business has grown rapidly. Financial institutions that grow rapidly can experience significant difficulties as a result of rapid growth. Furthermore, our primary strategy focuses on organic growth, supplemented by acquisitions of banking teams or other financial institutions. We may be unable to execute on aspects of our growth strategy to sustain our historical rate of growth or we may be unable to grow at all. For example, we may be unable to generate sufficient new loans and deposits within acceptable risk and expense tolerances, obtain the personnel or funding necessary for additional growth or find suitable banking teams or acquisition candidates. Various factors, such as economic conditions and competition, may impede or prohibit the growth of our operations, the opening of new branches, and the consummation of acquisitions. Further, we may be unable to attract and retain experienced bankers, which could adversely affect our growth. The success of our strategy also depends on our ability to effectively manage growth, which is dependent upon a number of factors, including our ability to adapt existing credit, operational, technology and governance infrastructure to accommodate our expanded operations. If we fail to build infrastructure sufficient to support rapid growth or fail to implement one or more aspects of our strategy, we may be unable to maintain historical earnings trends, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions or the Federal Reserve may direct us to restrain our growth.

Our business strategy includes evaluating strategic opportunities to grow through de novo branching, and we believe that banking location expansion has been meaningful to our growth since inception. De novo branching carries with it certain potential risks, including significant startup costs and anticipated initial operating losses; an inability to gain regulatory approval; an inability to secure the services of qualified senior management to operate the de novo banking location and successfully integrate and promote our corporate culture; poor market reception for de novo banking locations established in markets where we do not have a preexisting reputation; challenges posed by local economic conditions; challenges associated with securing attractive locations at a reasonable cost; and the additional strain on management resources and internal systems and controls. Failure to adequately manage the risks associated with our anticipated growth through de novo branching could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. De novo branches require regulatory approval or non-objection, which may not be forthcoming.