Mercer International (MERC) Risk Analysis

As demand for our products has principally historically been determined by general global macroeconomic activities, demand and prices for our products have historically decreased substantially during economic slowdowns. A significant economic downturn may affect our sales and profitability. Further, our suppliers and customers may also be adversely affected by an economic downturn. Additionally, restricted credit and capital availability restrains our customers' ability or willingness to purchase our products, resulting in lower revenues. Depending on the severity and duration, the effects and consequences of a global economic downturn could have a material adverse effect on our liquidity and capital resources, including our ability to raise capital, if needed, and otherwise negatively impact our business and financial results. Financial uncertainties and other events in our major international markets, including inflation and other market factors, may negatively impact the global economy and consequently, our results of operations.

The occurrence of unforeseen or catastrophic events, terrorist attacks or natural disasters could create economic and financial disruptions and could lead to operational difficulties (including travel limitations) that could impair our ability to manage or operate our business and adversely affect our results of operations.

Our main raw material is fiber in the form of wood chips, pulp logs, sawlogs and lumber. Fiber represented approximately 55% of our pulp cash production costs and approximately 75% of our lumber cash production costs in 2024. Fiber is a commodity and both prices and supply are cyclical. Fiber pricing is subject to regional market influences and our costs of fiber may increase in a region as a result of local market shifts. The costs of wood chips, pulp logs and sawlogs are primarily affected by the supply and demand for lumber. Demand for these raw materials is generally determined by the volume of pulp and paper products and solid wood products produced globally and regionally. Governmental regulations related to the environment, forest stewardship and green or renewable energy can also affect the supply of fiber. In Europe, governmental initiatives to increase the supply of renewable energy have led to more renewable energy projects, including in Germany. Demand for wood residuals from such energy producers has generally put upward pressure on prices for wood residuals. In addition, the reduction in natural gas supply and increase in energy prices in Germany resulting from the Ukraine war has previously increased both the demand and prices for wood chips and residuals resulting in higher per unit fiber costs for our German mills in recent years. The lumber industry is highly cyclical and the slowdown in sawmilling activities in recent years reduced the availability of both wood chips and pulp logs and put upward pressure on fiber costs. There is no assurance that sawmill activity will stabilize or not decline further or that fiber prices will not increase in the future. Following the expiration of a softwood lumber trade agreement in 2016, the United States and Canada have renewed a long-standing trade dispute regarding lumber exports from Canada to the United States. In November 2016, a petition was filed by a coalition of U.S. lumber producers to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission requesting an investigation into alleged subsidies provided to Canadian lumber producers. Since then, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced various countervailing and anti-dumping duty rates on Canadian softwood lumber and the United States and Canada have engaged in proceedings under the North American Free Trade Agreement and through the World Trade Organization. In September 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce published amended final results for its fifth administrative review, setting the countervailing duty at 6.74% and the anti-dumping rate at 7.66%, for combined final duty rates of 14.40% for "all other" Canadian lumber producers. In September 2024, Canada announced that it is challenging the final results of the U.S. Department of Commerce's fifth administrative review. It is uncertain when or if the United States and Canada may settle a new agreement and what terms or restrictions it may contain. Further, additional tariffs, duties or other restrictions may be imposed. Duties or other restrictions imposed on Canadian softwood lumber exports by the United States can negatively impact Canadian sawmill production in our Canadian pulp mills' supply area and result in reduced availability and increased costs for wood chips for our Canadian mills. While we believe this may be partially offset by increased wood chip supply from U.S. sawmills and pulp log availability, we cannot currently predict the effect on our Canadian mills' overall fiber costs. Availability of fiber may be further limited by adverse responses to and prevention of wildfires, weather, insect infestation, disease, ice storms, windstorms, flooding and other natural causes. In addition, the quantity, quality and price of fiber we receive could be affected by man-made causes such as those resulting from industrial disputes, material curtailments or shut down of operations by suppliers, government orders and legislation (including new taxes or tariffs). In our Western Canadian operations, fiber supply may also be impacted by unsettled land and title claims by, and government relations and actions relating to, Indigenous Nations. Any or a combination of these factors can affect fiber prices in a region. The cyclical nature of pricing for fiber represents a potential risk to our profit margins if pulp and lumber producers are unable to pass along price increases to their customers or we cannot offset such costs through higher prices for our surplus energy. Other than the renewable forest licenses of our Peace River mill, we do not own any timberlands or have any material long-term governmental timber concessions. We also currently have few long-term fiber contracts at our German operations. Fiber is available from a number of suppliers and prices are cyclical. Our fiber requirements have increased and may continue to do so as we expand capacity through capital projects, other efficiency measures at our mills and acquisitions. As a result, we may not be able to purchase sufficient quantities of fiber to meet our production requirements at prices acceptable to us during times of tight supply. An insufficient supply of fiber or reduction in the quality of fiber we receive would materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition to the supply of fiber, we are, to a lesser extent, dependent on the supply of certain chemicals and other inputs used in our production facilities. Any disruption in the supply of these chemicals or other inputs could affect our ability to meet customer demand in a timely manner and could harm our reputation. Any material increase in the cost of these chemicals or other inputs could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.