MARA Holdings (MARA) Risk Analysis

To the extent that any miners cease to record transactions in solved blocks, such transactions will not be recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain, until a block is solved by a miner who does not require the payment of transaction fees. Currently, there are no known incentives for miners to actively not record transactions in solved blocks. However, to the extent that any such incentives arise (e.g., a collective movement among miners or one or more mining pools forcing blockchain users to pay transaction fees as a substitute for or in addition to the award of new bitcoin upon the solving of a block), actions of miners solving a significant number of blocks could delay the recording and confirmation of transactions on the blockchain. Widespread delays could increase the risk of "double-spending" (i.e., spending the same digital assets in more than one transaction), reduce trust in the network, and negatively impact bitcoin's adoption and price. This could, in turn, affect the value of our bitcoin holdings and our financial performance.

Digital asset transactions are not, from an administrative perspective, reversible without the consent and active participation of the recipient of the transaction or, in theory, control or consent of a majority of the processing power on that digital asset network. Once a transaction has been verified and recorded in a block that is added to the blockchain, an incorrect transfer of digital assets or a theft of digital assets generally will not be reversible, and we may not be capable of seeking compensation for any such transfer or theft. Although we regularly transfer digital assets to or from vendors, consultants and services providers, it is possible that, through computer or human error, or through theft or criminal action, such assets could be transferred in incorrect amounts or to unauthorized third parties. To the extent we are unable to seek a corrective transaction to identify the third party which has received our digital assets through error or theft, we will be unable to revert or otherwise recover the impacted digital assets, and any such loss could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Since the Bitcoin network is an open-source project, any individual can download the Bitcoin network software and make any desired modifications, which are proposed to users and miners on the Bitcoin network through software downloads and upgrades and typically posted to the Bitcoin development forum on GitHub.com. A substantial majority of miners and Bitcoin users must consent to those software modifications by downloading the altered software or upgrade that implements the changes. Otherwise, the changes do not become a part of the Bitcoin network. Since the Bitcoin network's inception, changes to the network have been accepted by the vast majority of users and miners, ensuring that the network remains a coherent economic system. However, a developer or group of developers could propose a modification to the Bitcoin network that is not accepted by a vast majority of miners and users, but that is nonetheless accepted by a substantial population of participants in the Bitcoin network. In such a case, and if the modification is material or not compatible with the prior version of Bitcoin network software, a fork in the blockchain could develop and two separate Bitcoin networks could result with one running the pre-modification software program and the other running the modified version (i.e., a second "Bitcoin" network). Historically, the Bitcoin community has worked to merge forked blockchains, but a prolonged or unresolved split could create confusion, disrupt the network and affect bitcoin's stability. A fork could decrease confidence in bitcoin, negatively impacting its price and, in turn, our business and stock value.

As our operations grow, including through the expansion into new markets, the administrative demands and scaling demands upon us will grow, and our success will depend upon our ability to meet those demands. Our operations require certain financial, managerial and other resources, which could create challenges to our ability to successfully manage our subsidiaries and operations and impact our ability to assure compliance with our policies, practices and procedures. These demands include, but are not limited to, increased executive, technical, operations, accounting, legal, staff support and general office services. We may need to hire additional qualified personnel, including contractors, to meet these demands, the cost and quality of which are dependent in part upon market factors outside of our control. Further, we will need to effectively manage the training and growth of our staff to maintain an efficient and effective workforce, and our failure to do so could adversely affect our business and operating results.

We believe the potential for AI and HPC infrastructure complements our current business model with expected stable, long-term and high margin revenue. However, the success of our AI and HPC hosting strategy may not develop as anticipated and may be affected by factors such as the reliability and timing of power supply, supply chain disruption (including local labor availability), the implementation of new tariffs and more restrictive trade regulations and changes in in-house specialized expertise to manage the business. A failure to successfully implement our AI and HPC business strategy may adversely affect our business, prospects, or operations.

Our expansion into the AI and HPC industry is expected to increase capital intensity and shift the timing of cash inflows relative to capital outlays. AI and HPC data centers require substantial up-front capital expenditures, which may temporarily reduce liquidity. This business expansion introduces uncertainties that could impact our liquidity and capital resources. Increased capital expenditure requirements for new AI, HPC and data center infrastructure projects may accelerate cash deployment and increase short-term liquidity needs. The timing of cash inflows may shift, as hosting and leasing revenues generally materialize after construction completion and customer onboarding, resulting in a lag between capital investment and revenue realization. We may need to seek additional financing through debt, equity, or infrastructure-oriented funding to meet project-scale capital demands or to preserve bitcoin holdings during periods of market volatility.

While we intend to continue our Bitcoin mining operations, the allocation of resources to support AI and HPC development may reduce the capital, personnel, infrastructure and power capacity available for our mining business. In particular, the diversion of power capacity to AI and HPC workloads may limit our ability to deploy that power for Bitcoin mining, which is a highly competitive and capital-intensive industry. As a result, we may be unable to expand our deployed hashrate at the pace of our competitors, potentially diminishing our market share and profitability. Expanding into AI and HPC may also increase operational complexity and place additional demands on our management, technical and support teams, which could negatively affect our overall performance, strategic execution and profitability.

In February 2026, our wholly owned subsidiary entered into a Strategic Agreement with Starwood to develop, lease and market a specified list of our existing U.S. bitcoin mining data centers (excluding properties held in existing third-party joint ventures). The arrangement contemplates the achievement of specified triggers, such as the procurement of an executable lease with a qualifying hyperscaler tenant, followed by an election by each party whether to proceed with development. A decision is required within 24 months after closing (subject to a potential 12-month extension if Starwood is engaged in active bona fide negotiations with at least one hyperscaler tenant), even if the specified triggers have not been achieved, and Starwood may determine at any time that development of a property is not commercially feasible. There can be no assurance that required milestones will be achieved within the contemplated timeframes, on acceptable terms, or at all. The development of large-scale data centers for hyperscaler tenants is complex and subject to numerous contingencies, including securing adequate and timely power arrangements, obtaining required governmental permits and approvals, satisfying regulatory requirements, finalizing design and engineering specifications, and negotiating and executing long-term leases with creditworthy tenants. Delays resulting from regulatory review, power interconnection queues, supply chain constraints, labor shortages, market volatility or prolonged tenant negotiations could cause projects to be deferred or abandoned. Because the agreement requires development decisions within defined time periods, we may be required to make significant capital allocation determinations under time constraints and with incomplete information, which could lead to investment decisions that do not produce the returns we expect. If both parties elect to proceed with respect to a property, it will be contributed to a newly formed joint venture in which we will hold between 10 and 50 percent of the equity interests, and Starwood will serve as managing member with authority over day-to-day development and operations, subject to certain approval rights held by us. As a result, we may have limited ability to control the timing, scope, financing, development strategy, operational decisions or disposition of joint venture assets, and disagreements with Starwood could adversely affect project execution. Starwood will have the right to make capital calls to fund development and operating costs, which may be significant and unpredictable. If we are unable or unwilling to fund required capital contributions when due, we may be subject to dilution of our ownership interest, the loss or reduction of governance or economic rights, the subordination of our interests, forced sales of our interests at unfavorable prices, or other adverse consequences under the applicable joint venture agreements, any of which could reduce our expected returns and negatively affect our liquidity and capital allocation flexibility. If Starwood elects to proceed with development of a property after procuring a qualifying lease and we elect not to proceed, we will be required to sell our rights to the powered land at the applicable asset to Starwood, which could require us to dispose of valuable property interests at a time or on terms that we would not otherwise choose. In addition, following a specified lock-out period, either party may have the right to force the sale of a joint venture property, subject to a right of first offer in favor of the other party. The exercise of such rights could result in asset dispositions at times that do not align with our preferred investment horizon or prevailing market conditions. Moreover, although we expect either to continue our Bitcoin mining operations at applicable properties pursuant to a rent-free lease or to be compensated to relocate, development activities or relocation could result in operational disruptions, downtime, increased costs or loss of mining capacity. As a result of these and other factors, the Strategic Agreement may not achieve its intended objectives and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.