St Joe Company (JOE) Risk Analysis

If one or more of our tenants, particularly an anchor tenant, declares bankruptcy, defaults or voluntarily vacates from the leased premises, we may be unable to collect rent payments from such tenant, re-lease such space or to re-lease it on comparable or more favorable terms. Additionally, the loss or failure to renew of an anchor tenant may make it more difficult to lease the remainder of the affected properties, which may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial condition. Alternatively, increases in consumer spending through e-commerce channels may significantly affect our tenants' ability to generate sales in their stores, which could affect their ability to make payments to us. These economic and market conditions, combined with rising or sustained high levels of inflation and lack of labor availability, may also place a number of our key customers under financial stress, which may adversely affect our occupancy rates and our profitability, which, in turn, may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial condition.

Our business strategy includes the development and leasing of multi-family and senior living properties, management of commercial properties and commercial assets for sale. These commercial developments may not be as successful as estimated due to leasing related risks, including the risk that we may not be able to lease new properties, obtain lease rates that are consistent with our projections or achieve targeted occupancy levels within expected timeframes as well as the risks generally associated with real estate development. Senior living properties in particular face challenges such as longer lease-up periods, specialized staffing requirements, and the need to establish and maintain a strong reputation in the local market. Additionally, development of leasing projects involves the risk associated with the significant time lag between commencement and completion of the project. This time lag subjects us to greater risks relating to, among other things: - fluctuations in the general economy;- our ability to obtain construction or permanent financing on favorable commercial terms, if at all;- our ability to achieve projected rental rates;- the pace that we will be able to lease to new tenants;- higher than estimated construction costs (including labor and material costs); and - delays in the completion of projects because of, among other factors, inclement weather, labor disruptions, construction delays or delays in receiving zoning or other regulatory approvals, or man-made or natural disasters. Failure to lease new properties or obtain lease rates that are consistent with our projections or significant time lags between commencement and completion of a commercial project may lead to lower than anticipated returns, which could adversely impact our ability to successfully execute our business strategy.

- Development and Land Use Requirements. Approval to develop real property entails an extensive entitlements process involving multiple and overlapping regulatory jurisdictions and often requiring discretionary action by local government. This process is often political, uncertain and may require significant exactions in order to secure approvals. Real estate projects in Florida must generally comply with the provisions of the Community Planning Act and local land development regulations. Compliance with the State of Florida planning requirements and local land development regulations is usually lengthy and costly and can be expected to materially affect our real estate development activities. The Community Planning Act requires local governments to adopt comprehensive plans guiding and controlling future real property development in their respective jurisdictions and to evaluate, assess and keep those plans current. Included in all comprehensive plans is a future land use map, which sets forth allowable land use development rights. Some of our land has an "agricultural" or "silviculture" future land use designation and we may be required to seek an amendment to the future land use map to develop real estate projects. Approval of these comprehensive plan map amendments is highly discretionary. All development orders and permits must be consistent with the comprehensive plan. Each plan must address such topics as future land use and capital improvements and make adequate provision for a multitude of public services including transportation, schools, solid waste disposal, sewerage, potable water supply, drainage, affordable housing, open space, parks and others. The local governments' comprehensive plans must also establish "levels of service" with respect to certain specified public facilities, including roads, schools and services to residents. In many areas, infrastructure funding has not kept pace with growth, causing facilities to operate below established levels of service. Local governments are prohibited from issuing development orders or permits if the development will reduce the level of service for public facilities below the level of service established in the local government's comprehensive plan, unless the developer either sufficiently improves the services up front to meet the required level of service or provides financial assurances that the additional services will be provided as the project progresses. In addition, local governments that fail to keep their plans current may be prohibited by law from amending their plans to allow for new development. If any one or more of these factors were to occur, we may be unable to develop our real estate projects successfully or within the expected timeframes. Changes in the Community Planning Act or the interpretation thereof, new enforcement of these laws or the enactment of new laws regarding the development of real property may lead to a decline in our ability to develop and market our communities successfully and to generate positive cash flow from these operations in a timely manner, which may have a materially adverse effect on our ability to service our demand and negatively impact our business, results of operations, cash flows or financial condition. Our properties are subject to federal, state and local environmental regulations and restrictions that may impose significant limitations on our development ability. In most cases, approval to develop requires multiple permits, which involve a long, uncertain and costly regulatory process. Our land holdings contain jurisdictional wetlands, some of which may be unsuitable for development or prohibited from development by applicable law. Development approval most often requires mitigation for impacts to wetlands that require land to be conserved at a disproportionate ratio versus the actual wetlands impacted and approved for development. Some of our property is undeveloped land located in areas where development may have to avoid, minimize or mitigate for impacts to the natural habitats of various protected wildlife or plant species. Additionally, some of our property is in coastal areas that usually have a more restrictive permitting burden or must address issues such as coastal high hazard, hurricane evacuation, floodplains and dune protection. - Environmental Regulation. Current or past operations are subject to extensive and evolving federal, state and local environmental laws and other regulations. The provisions and enforcement of these environmental laws and regulations may become more stringent in the future, including as a result of attention from environmental advocacy groups. Violations of these laws and regulations can result in, among other things, civil penalties, remediation expenses, natural resource damages, personal injury damages, potential injunctions, cease and desist orders and criminal penalties. In addition, some of these environmental laws impose strict liability, which means that we may be held liable for any environmental damage on our property regardless of fault. Past and present real property, particularly properties used in connection with our previous transportation and papermill operations, were involved in the storage, use or disposal of hazardous substances that may have contaminated and may in the future contaminate the environment. We may bear liability for this contamination and for the costs of cleaning up a site at which we have disposed of, or to which we have transported, hazardous substances. The presence of hazardous substances on a property may also adversely affect our ability to sell or develop the property or to borrow funds using the property as collateral.

We maintain insurance on our properties, including property, liability, fire, flood and extended coverage. However, we do not insure our timber assets. Additionally, our insurance for hurricanes has limitations per named storm and is subject to deductibles. We use our discretion when determining amounts, coverage limits and deductibles for insurance. These terms are determined based on retaining an acceptable level of risk at a reasonable cost. This may result in insurance coverage that, in the event of a substantial loss, would not be sufficient to pay the full current market value or current replacement cost of our lost investment. Inflation, changes in building codes and ordinances, environmental considerations and other factors also may make it unfeasible to use insurance proceeds to replace a facility after it has been damaged or destroyed. Under such circumstances, we may not receive insurance proceeds or the insurance proceeds we receive may not fully cover business interruptions or losses and our earnings, liquidity, or capital resources may be adversely affected. Homeowner property insurance companies doing business in Florida have reacted to previous hurricanes by increasing premiums, requiring higher deductibles, reducing limits, restricting coverage, imposing exclusions, refusing to insure certain property owners, and in some instances, ceasing insurance operations in the state. It is uncertain what effect these actions may have on future property insurance availability and rates in the state. The high costs of property insurance premiums in Florida may deter potential customers from purchasing a homesite in one of our developments or make Northwest Florida less attractive to new employers that can create high quality jobs needed to increase growth in the region, either of which may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, cash flows and financial condition. Florida's state-owned property insurance company, Citizens Property Insurance Corp., underwrites homeowner property insurance. If there were to be a catastrophic hurricane or series of hurricanes to hit Florida, the exposure of the state government to property insurance claims may place extreme stress on state finances. Our insurance policies are generally renewed on an annual basis and, depending on factors such as market conditions, the premiums, terms, policy limits and/or deductibles can vary substantially. We can give no assurance that we will be able to maintain adequate insurance in the future at rates or on other terms we consider commercially reasonable. To offset negative insurance market trends, we may decide to self-insure additional risks. In the even that we decide to self-insure, if we experience a greater number of self-insured losses than we anticipate, our financial performance could be adversely affected. If we lose our ability to, or decide not to, self-insure these risks, our insurance cost could materially increase and we may find it difficult to obtain adequate levels of insurance coverage.

An epidemic, pandemic or similar serious public health issue, and the measures undertaken by governmental authorities to address it, could significantly disrupt or prevent us from operating our business in the ordinary course for an extended period, and thereby, and/or along with any associated economic and/or social instability or distress, have a material adverse impact on our results of operations, cash flows and financial condition. In addition to impacting general economic conditions, a public health emergency may exacerbate factors that impact our operations, including supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and rising commodity and product costs, which may continue after the public health emergency has subsided. Any continued impact could also amplify the other risks and uncertainties. The ultimate extent to which a public health emergency could impact our business is highly uncertain and cannot be predicted with any degree of confidence.