FNM S.p.A. (FNM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €220.93M
• Dividend Yield: 3.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 273.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 4.31%
• EPS Growth: -15.86%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 2,675
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 434,902,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 229,859
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 273,530
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: €0.57 ▲(11.76% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 12/11/25
• Date: Action: Upgraded 12/11/25

FNM S.p.A. receives a solid overall score driven by its attractive valuation and technical indicators suggesting potential upward momentum. However, the mixed financial performance, particularly the decline in revenue and free cash flow growth, tempers the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Market position & diversified revenue

FNM's core position in Northern Italy with multimodal offerings and contracted services creates durable demand and revenue visibility. Diversified streams—fares, regional contracts, freight and subsidies—reduce cyclicality and support steady utilization and route scale over months to years.

Sustained operating profitability

High EBITDA margin and positive net margin reflect strong cost control and operational efficiency in transport operations. Margins provide buffer against revenue volatility and support reinvestment in fleet and infrastructure, underpinning long-term service quality and competitiveness.

Conservative balance sheet and strong ROE

Very low leverage gives FNM financial flexibility for capex and downturns without heavy refinancing risk. A high ROE indicates efficient use of equity capital, allowing the company to fund growth or returns while maintaining conservative debt levels over an extended horizon.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue momentum

A sharp slowdown in revenue growth is a durable concern: reduced top-line expansion impairs scale economics and may force tradeoffs between investment and margins. If sustained over multiple quarters, weaker revenue undermines cash flow generation and strategic flexibility.

Weak free cash flow trend

Material erosion in free cash flow growth constrains reinvestment, debt reduction and distributions. Even with positive net income, falling FCF reduces liquidity cushions and could necessitate external funding for capex or working capital, affecting resilience over months.

Dependence on public contracts and subsidies

Significant reliance on regional contracts and subsidies creates exposure to political and regulatory shifts. Contract renegotiations or subsidy changes can materially affect revenues and margins, reducing price-setting power and creating structural uncertainty for medium-term planning.

FNM S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

FNM S.p.A. manages and maintains railway network in Italy. The company offers road passenger transport and motorway infrastructure management services; engineering services; design, and works and project management services; and regular transport for workers. It also provides railway and Malpensa express, railway replacement and school bus, freight transportation, and electric car sharing services, as well as digital solutions for transport and mobility, digital payments, and optical fibre. In addition, it provides energy services. The company was formerly known as Ferrovie Nord Milano. The company was founded in 1877 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

How the Company Makes Money

FNM generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from fares collected from passengers using its rail and bus services. The company also earns income through contracts and agreements with regional governments for public transport services. Additional revenue comes from freight transport services and logistics solutions provided to various industries. FNM may also benefit from partnerships with other transport operators and infrastructure projects, as well as from government subsidies aimed at promoting public transportation. The company's strategic focus on expanding its service offerings and improving operational efficiency contributes significantly to its financial performance.

FNM S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

FNM S.p.A. demonstrates a mixed financial performance. While profitability margins remain healthy, the significant decline in revenue growth and free cash flow growth raises concerns. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but cash flow challenges need addressing to ensure long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

FNM S.p.A. shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth rate by 41.3%, indicating a significant slowdown. However, the company maintains a healthy EBITDA margin of 27.7% and a net profit margin of 7.7%, reflecting decent profitability. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, suggesting potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of FNM S.p.A. indicates a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 in the TTM period, showcasing effective debt management. The return on equity is strong at 18.5%, highlighting efficient use of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a comprehensive assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis reveals challenges with a negative free cash flow growth rate of 41.4% in the TTM period, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is 34.8%, suggesting some level of cash generation efficiency despite the decline.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	915.84M	891.85M	750.97M	661.10M	567.93M	243.75M
Gross Profit	240.88M	235.12M	243.28M	198.05M	170.23M	6.05M
EBITDA	252.55M	239.52M	228.94M	195.87M	150.51M	68.17M
Net Income	67.37M	59.33M	80.86M	68.48M	40.88M	24.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.29B	2.35B	2.11B	2.02B	1.92B	1.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	354.12M	504.16M	398.55M	244.64M	365.14M	253.34M
Total Debt	901.75M	925.76M	846.31M	905.44M	972.14M	154.91M
Total Liabilities	1.82B	1.94B	1.74B	1.71B	1.69B	668.60M
Stockholders Equity	427.61M	374.31M	355.33M	283.93M	206.82M	457.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.71M	106.89M	134.22M	56.14M	102.16M	-60.43M
Operating Cash Flow	131.84M	196.00M	182.69M	145.22M	140.42M	7.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.55M	-81.42M	63.96M	-157.20M	-546.45M	25.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-134.56M	-9.53M	-88.41M	-102.59M	504.52M	-8.29M

FNM S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:FNM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.50, above the 50-day MA of 0.50, and above the 200-day MA of 0.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:FNM.

FNM S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPSO	72 Outperform	€7.81B	12.06	15.43%	4.87%	-10.80%	20.43%
IF	71 Outperform	€1.49B	4.63	8.85%	8.44%	-3.63%	-5.12%
FNM	71 Outperform	€220.93M	3.28	19.00%	3.86%	4.31%	-15.86%
BFF	69 Neutral	€651.85M	9.25	17.55%	―	-25.72%	-46.30%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BDB	53 Neutral	€1.18B	9.25	7.87%	4.86%	-5.81%	-11.05%